Russian expert on the Middle East, Yuri Shcheglovin, believes that the next widely announced opposition attack on Aleppo has failed. Note that the militants stormed the economic capital of Syria with the stubbornness of the doomed.
As one of the field commanders of the Syrian Free Army (FSA) stated this week: “we must either take Aleppo or suffer heavy losses”. We will risk correcting the commander, since the insurgents will suffer heavy losses anyway. The question here is: either they will take Aleppo, or the Syrian opposition will have very difficult times, which will be accompanied by splits, mutual accusations, etc. All these negative points are already taking place. Moreover, according to a number of experts, among the field commanders there is a growing distrust of each other. As one commander put it, “many want to gain an advantage at the expense of others”. If this statement is deciphered, then we can safely conclude that the rebel detachments still lack a single command vertical, and all decisions on joint operations are made collectively with the most severe disputes. The previously widely announced transfer of the SSA headquarters from Turkey to “one of the liberated territories” did not bring any practical result.
Under these conditions, it is not possible in principle to talk about any really real large-scale offensive operations. What we are seeing in Aleppo now illustrates the superiority of the propaganda aspect over all others, and above all to the military. The attack on the city, from which the rebels were for the most part knocked out two weeks ago, indicates a weak tactical training of the command of the militants.
They simply did not have time to regroup in such a short time and replenish their ranks. This is evidenced by the geography of hostilities, when the bulk of the clashes after the fall of the rebellious quarters of Aleppo moved mainly to the regions bordering Jordan. The attacks at the checkpoint on the Turkish border, which was announced loudly, were mainly due to an attempt to make a corridor for the evacuation of the wounded and the exit of militant units.
Attacking Aleppo in conditions when the army entrenched in it after a month-long siege, pulled reinforcements to it, and even widely announce it in advance - there is a gross violation of military tactics, for which, in fact, the attackers now pay. The SSA is urgently needed now at least some kind of victory. And the suicide attacks on army strongholds in the city are aimed primarily at proving to the sponsors their worth as forces. Especially against the background of the fact that in the West they began to openly talk about the infusion of the SSA into the new military structure of the opposition with a completely different command.
Hence the absolutely primitive attempts to re-find the “Russian trace” in stories with a downed Turkish reconnaissance aircraft. We will not comment on another example of Arab propaganda in its worst performance. It seems that this kind of misinformation masterpieces, like the story of the "killed" Russian general, very clearly show us the logic level of the representatives of the leadership of the opposition, which is more reminiscent of rumors in the Eastern market. It is clear that it is extremely important for the Arabian monarchies to drive a wedge between Moscow and Ankara, but any task requires talented execution. And this is just no one puzzled. The fact that "slipped" in the Libyan campaign in Syria does not work.
Changed the general mood for events in Syria. Suffice it to recall the comment of the new UN Special Representative and the Arab League on Syria Lakhdar Brahimi, who openly declared that “the events in Syria are the result of an international conspiracy”. Hence, in contrast to the misinformation about the "Russian advisers" who are not just in Syria, but also direct the alleged actions of President Bashar al-Assad. This is surprisingly different. What the European seems completely illogical is that an Arab (often regardless of his level of education) perceives as the ultimate truth. If we take it even wider, then the Arab population firmly believes in any nonsense, if only it responds to its internal attitude to this or that problem.
Anyway, the development of the situation in Syria in the medium term will not undergo major changes. Local battles in the Sunni neighborhoods and settlements will continue permanently, since the Sunni population has not gone anywhere, which means resistance will fester all the time. New in the tactics of militants, and from their Islamist segment, is an attempt to destabilize the situation in the predominantly Kurdish city of Kamyshly. Or, in other words, they are trying to open a “second front” using Christian resistance groups and vacillating youth Kurds. It is doubtful that this will lead to the Aleppo scenario. But the main task of the opposition now and in the near future is the liberation of at least one large Syrian city with an attempt to create a temporary government there.
1. The Syrian is crying, holding his son in his arms near the hospital in Aleppo, October 3. Three suicides blew up cars filled with explosives in government-controlled quarters, killing an 34 man and wounding more than 120, also destroying the surrounding buildings and filling the wounded with fragments. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
2. Smoke comes from a burning textile factory in the Arkub quarter of Aleppo, after its rebels captured its September 30. (Miguel Medina / AFP / Getty Images)
3. Syrian fighter drops bombs, 1 September. (Reuters / Youssef Boudlal)
4. Syrian security officers gather in front of the destroyed building after a triple blast on Saadallah al-Jabri Street, October 3. (AP Photo / SANA)
5. SSA fighters talk to government forces, hiding behind blinds in the Seif al-Davlah area of Aleppo, September 11. Snipers took positions on the rooftops and in strategic locations to prevent government troops from entering the area. (Zac Baillie / AFP / Getty Images)
6. Wounded near a hospital in Sheikh Fares, Aleppo, 18 September. (Marco Longari / AFP / Getty Images)
7. A Syrian walks along the partially destroyed quarter of Salaheddin in Aleppo, which is controlled by the Syrian army, on September 3. Syrian infantry supported by artillery and aviation attacked the rebels on September 5 on many fronts. (Joseph Eid / AFP / Getty Images)
8. SSA soldier posing in the quarter of Isaa, September 9. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
9. Syrian government soldiers near a ditch with rebel corpses on the road to the airport in Aleppo, October 2. (AFP / Getty Images)
10. A soldier of government troops near the entrance to the historic fortress of Aleppo, September 4. The fortress is considered one of the oldest and largest in the world, its age is over 4000 years. (Joseph Eid / AFP / Getty Images)
11. The SSA fighter is fighting hard in the quarter of Isaa, September 9. (Zac Baillie / AFP / Getty Images)
12. Smoke rises over the Safe Al Dawlah quarter, October 2. An assistant to the UN secretary-general told the Syrian foreign minister that he was demanding the cessation of the use of heavy weapons against civilians, the death toll among which, according to his information, is from 100 to 200 every day. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
13. The wounded woman, still in shock, leaves the Dar El Shif hospital in Aleppo, 20 September. After two months of fighting in the city, civilians still continue to suffer from street fighting. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo, File)
14. The body of a seven-year-old boy killed by a militant sniper lies in Dar El Shif Hospital, September 20. That day four children were killed. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
15. Fighter SSA rests in the hole of the building after the attack of government forces, September 25. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
16. Syrians cross the street, many of the apartments in which were abandoned due to the hostilities, 11 September. (AP Photo / Muhammed Muheisen)
17. Syrian kids play outside in Bustan Al Qzar, 12 September .. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
18. A Syrian woman is waiting to leave her home during clashes between rebels and government forces, September 24. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
19. A Syrian with packets of food is trying to evade possible sniper fire near the checkpoint held by the SSA, 14 September. (Marco Longari / AFP / Getty Images)
20. Destroyed buildings in al-Arqub quarter, 23 September. (AFP / Getty Images)
21. SSA (right) uses a mirror to see government soldiers around the corner, September 24. According to some analysts, the majority of the SSA militants are simple Syrians or defectors from government troops, but more and more information comes in about foreign mercenaries and Islamist extremists that appear en masse on the front line. (AP Photo / Hussein Malla)
22. Damaged roof in Bab Antakia quarter in Old Aleppo, October 2. The old city in Aleppo is one of several places in Syria that are declared by UNESCO (the cultural division of the United Nations) sites of the cultural heritage of mankind. And now it is under the threat of destruction due to the fights. (Reuters / Zain Karam)
23. SSA shooter shoots toward government troops, September 10. As reported in one of the reports of UN observers, militants actively use minors to conduct military operations (at the same time accusing government forces of this) / (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
24. Aleppo streets after a triple blast in the Saadallah al-Jabri quarter, October 3. (AP Photo / SANA)
25. SSA fighters are repairing a grenade launcher in Isaa quarter, September 27. (Miguel Medina / AFP / Getty Images)
26. SSA fighters carry their wounded colleague, hit by a government sniper, 8 September. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
27. The wounded rebel is waiting for him to be tied up, and in a hospital in the Sheikh Farez district, on September 18. (Marco Longari / AFP / Getty Images)
28. The SSA sniper is looking for a target in the quarter of Isaa, 23 September. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
29. The photographer shoots through a hole in the wall of the building, showing the decaying rebel corpse, 24 September. (Miguel Medina / AFP / Getty Images)
30. Destruction due to bombing, 23 September. The rebels claim that they now control most of the country, and have already moved their command center from Turkey to the “liberated zone” inside Syria. (Miguel Medina / AFP / Getty Images)
31. The SSA shooter shoots during clashes with the regular army, September 27. (Reuters / Zain Karam)
32. Fighter SSA hiding near the toilet during a fight with government forces, 2 October. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
33. Damaged buildings in Salaheddin, Aleppo, 3 September. (Joseph Eid / AFP / Getty Images)
34. Doctors are Fatima Kvassim, 6 years, whose legs were badly damaged when the car of their family fired, in intensive care. 11 September. (AP Photo / Muhammed Muheisen)
35. SSA soldier throws incendiary grenade in the direction of government troops, October 3. (AP Photo / Manu Brabo)
36. Damaged buildings in the quarter Salaheddin, Aleppo, October 3. (Miguel Medina / AFP / Getty Images)