No panic: there is nothing serious in the supply of arms to Ukraine
The second call is to reflect on the fact that this is not the time to panic. Too early. Although some Russians were unnecessarily impressed by the rampant reports from the West that the entire Old and part of the New World rushed to transfer weapons to Ukraine that would make it difficult for the Russian army to conduct a special operation.
Yes, there is some reason for concern. More contemporary weapons - higher resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, more losses from the Russian side. And do we need it? No, don't.
But the main nuance: who said that the weapons are modern?
Germany is eager to supply Ukraine Tanks "Leopard 1".
Commendable. These tanks had already served well in other armies and were returned to the manufacturer, Rheinmetall. There is no chance of cashing these very worn cars for money. And then the Armed Forces of Ukraine turned up, who are ready to take everything they give.
You won't have to pay for it.
The British Commonwealth also does not stand aside: "Bushmasters", "Jackals", "Mastiffs" - everything goes (or is waiting) to Ukraine.
Plus AS-90 self-propelled guns, the most recent of which were manufactured in 1995.
We already wrote about how “beautiful” the Starstreak and Martlet MANPADS are. Someone may consider them better than the Stinger, this is a matter of taste.
The only decent product in the range supplied to Ukraine can be considered the Norwegian-made NASAMS air defense system.
A really very good complex, which is adopted in service in Spain, Finland and - surprisingly - in the USA. Moreover, NASAMS installations are used not just anywhere, but in the air defense of a city like Washington.
In addition, the Norwegians are considering the supply of medium-range anti-ship missiles NSM from the Kongsberg company to Ukraine. The Naval Strike Missile is a missile that is as versatile as our Onyx and capable of hitting surface and ground targets. The maximum launch range is 185 km, the weight of the warhead is 120 kg. NSM, in addition to Norway, was bought by Germany, the USA, Poland and Malaysia.
So the Norwegians are the only ones who are going to put something sane and capable of strengthening the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The rest of the world is trying to give Ukraine what is subject to recycling and what is simply unrealistic to sell.
How dangerous is all this, how much can all these “gifts”, for which Ukraine will have to pay anyway, change the course of events in Ukraine?
Western bounties are not at all dangerous. As the practice of the special operation in Ukraine shows, the Russian headquarters are by no means fools. Yes, we have something to criticize the Ministry of Defense for, but in this matter everything is quite transparent.
Today, some Russians (and not only Russians) have succumbed to the idea that by supplying weapons to Ukraine, NATO has actually gone to war with Russia. And from here very peculiar thoughts begin in the heads, often of a panicky nature. Like the fact that Russia will not survive the confrontation with NATO.
The supply of arms by NATO countries, often morally and physically obsolete, is not yet a NATO war against Russia. This time.
And "two" - I will have a small question for those who are panicking: do you even know, gentlemen, what military operations are?
Combat operations are different from computer games in that they require an entire infrastructure for supply, repair and maintenance. We need fuel, oil, spare parts, ammunition. But the most important thing is fuel.
What unites all these "Leopards", "Jackals", NASAMS, even the former Soviet S-300? They need fuel. Without the ability to move, the tank can still be used as a bunker for some time (until the arrival of a helicopter with ATGMs). All the rest are sweet and harmless targets. The S-300, being in a deployed position, can resist. But as the events in Dnepropetrovsk showed, the fate of the complexes transferred by Slovakia is not very enviable. Soot, smoke, twisted metal...
And what's with the fuel?
And everything is fine. All large fuel storage facilities at the regional level, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine stored precious gasoline and diesel fuel in Nikolaev, Zaporozhye, Lvov, Odessa, Kharkov and Chuguev, alas, have been destroyed. Together with supply bases in Radekhov, Kazatin, Prosyanoy, Novomoskovsk.
The largest refinery in Kremenchug was put out of action, its fuel storages were destroyed. They stand because of the lack of raw materials refineries in Lisichansk, Kherson, Drohobych, Nadvorny and Odessa. And only the Kherson NPH has a chance to make money, only the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be neither hot nor cold from this, because Kherson, excuse me, is not quite Ukraine anymore.
Here it is worth remembering that Ukraine received the bulk of oil products from Russia through Belarus. The shop closed, and along with it, oil disappeared, from which gasoline and diesel fuel could be made.
Of course, “winning is our mustache,” and Pan Zelensky delighted the Ukrainians that Azerbaijan is ready to supply Ukraine with a volume of oil that will amount to about 50% of the entire oil market of Ukraine. I am not ready to comment on this statement, because the Azerbaijani side is somehow silent so far. The only thing Aliyev said was about sending humanitarian aid and medicines to Ukraine.
And I have a question: how will Azerbaijan supply oil to Ukraine? Pipelines? Azerbaijan is not rich in this. One pipeline goes to Georgia, two to Turkey. In its continental part, very far from the coast.
It is possible to distill the oil to the Georgian Supsa, from where it is within easy reach to Poti and further by sea to Odessa. Why to Odessa? And in Ukraine there are no more ports left capable of receiving oil products from a tanker.
I am wildly interested in how the tankers of Azerbaijan or Turkey will go to Odessa? Past the Black Sea fleet, which patrols coastal waters, by sea, where all the same Ukrainians threw so many mines that the Turks and Romanians are really on their ears, catching and destroying all these rarities? How?
And in general, where will the Azerbaijanis look for suicide bombers who are ready to go with a cargo of oil products to Odessa? And how much will this shipping cost?
Personally, this operation seems very doubtful to me.
Of course, Poland is still left with its promises, but... If the Poles give fuel, it must be transported, stored, and delivered to equipment. And the APU still has a lot of equipment.
Do you understand what I'm getting at? Yes? Columns of fuel trucks, as in Syria. Huge and long, but capable of drinking tank formations and motorized rifle units.
And here, as expected, the pilots and navigators of the same 47th bomber aviation regiment will enter the scene, having burned down more than one hundred of such fuel trucks in Syria. I think the result of their work in Ukraine will be no different from their work in Syria.
So all these assurances that "Europe will help them" will end very quickly. With smoky special effects all the way to the sky.
Railroad
Many grumble about the fact that the Aerospace Forces are not destroying the railway structure of Ukraine and thereby do not prevent the transfer of troops and equipment to the combat areas.
There is something to object here. In reality, a cruise missile strike or a tactical ballistic missile attack on a railroad is, of course, yes. But each station has track repair equipment and people who are able to make repairs in the shortest possible time.
People of two parallel lines, they are very peculiar. But just as our railway workers quickly eliminate the consequences of accidents and disasters, so the Ukrainian ones will do the same. They will pour it out, lay the sleepers, stretch the rails. The Gospel of Lazar Kaganovich is still working.
There is no point in destroying bridges. The blowing up of a bridge in the Belgorod region by Ukrainian saboteurs will clearly demonstrate this to everyone. If you know what kind of landing on the motrices went to the Belgorod region, to that bridge. And there is no doubt that the bridge will either be restored, or a new one will rise in its place. The Voronezh plant "Stalmost" is already in business.
I don’t know, they handed over the details of bridges in Ukraine for metal, I wouldn’t be surprised if they handed it over. But nevertheless, the restoration of the railway structure is a matter of time.
And if we talk about help from Poland and the Baltic states, then the main communication there is by road. And here, excuse me, the VKS may be against the supply. Burn down a few columns - and everyone on the other side will think very hard about whether it is worth organizing these transportation shows at all.
As I already wrote, both the Su-34, and the Ka-52, and the Mi-28N (especially this one) "see" perfectly in the dark. And that means it will burn properly.
After all, that the “leopard”, that “Zuzanna” is from the generous Slovaks, they are also unable to move hundreds of kilometers on their own. A resource, you know ... And Leo's consumption is not like that of Zaz-Daewoo. So - a trawl for transfer, there's nothing to be done. After all, there are about 450 km from the Polish border to the Dnieper. This is not a joke, so the same Leopards need either railway platforms, or trawls and tractors.
In general, everything is solved. Tractors have already been condemned by strikes on refineries and oil storage facilities, rail delivery is solved very simply: by superiority in the air. And it is very difficult to overcome this.
And if you hit major railway junctions... Or bridges across the Dnieper...
Then, of course, it will not be easy for vehicles to get to the battlefields. Even to the left bank of the Dnieper, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gathering forces to unblock the Kramatorsk pocket.
There is no point in chasing trains, it is easier to cover everything at the junction stations. It's not difficult for the Aerospace Forces, or for the rocket scientists.
About the most annoying part
Many did not like the fact that American President Biden, who has been in a rather strange state for the past few years, which I cannot assess, because he is neither a psychologist nor a narcologist, promised Ukraine installations for launching missiles.
It is clear that the launchers themselves are nothing without missiles. And no one has really said yet what missiles Biden will come to share in his chaotic consciousness. Various options are being discussed, from "tomahawks" to MGM-140 ATACMS or HIMARS.
The M142 HIMARS is an interesting mount as it can be equipped with either 6 MLRS MLRS missiles or 1 ATACMS tactical missile. The ATACMS missile of the first models (the United States will keep the latter) is practically an analogue of Tochka U, since it flies 165 km and carries a cluster warhead weighing 560 kg.
News really unpleasant, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine have never been seen in an attempt to use "Point U" on Russian troops. But attempts and applications on civilian objects are plentiful. And it is very doubtful that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will use missiles at "military airfields and military units of Russia." This is true, only in the brain of Biden could be born.
But HIMARS also needs fuel. And the second component - you need to be able to control such complex weapons. It is clear that the same rocket men still exist in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but ... ATACMS is still not “Point U”, mastered for “five” over several decades. That is, the operators will need to be trained. And this is the time.
Some "experts" argue that since Biden said that "Ukraine will become a battlefield", then American military personnel may also be behind the ATACMS consoles, but ... it is doubtful. As various mercenaries, from Georgian to British, are fleeing Ukraine today, it is unlikely that the Americans will turn out to be such lovers of dubious pleasures, like falling under the blow of Russian military equipment.
The destruction of the Slovak S-300s in Dnepropetrovsk by "Caliber" is the best confirmation of this. After all, their destruction was not even effective, but spectacular: they cut down the detection and target designation stations, after which the launchers were simply useless.
But it seems to me more that Biden again spoke about missiles, being ... in his usual state. After him, more than one high-ranking military man (for example, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley) said that American missiles on Russian infrastructure are a pretext for the Third World War, and the US military does not want this.
So such deliveries are generally doubtful, but even if they happen, the complexes must reach the work areas to begin with. And it will be very, very difficult to do this in modern conditions.
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Air control, pinpoint strikes from both aircraft and ground and surface launchers of cruise missiles, the destruction of fuel depots, transport hubs, railway and road bridges in the border areas with countries supplying military equipment will completely nullify all the efforts of Western countries to equipment of the Armed Forces.
So everything is going in the right direction at the moment. Left without fuel, the Ukrainian army simply cannot do anything. The events in Mariupol have already shown how useless resistance is in the absence of ammunition, food and medicine. It is, shall we say, impossible.
The year is 2022, a war in the image and likeness of the Roman Empire or the First World War is unrealistic. Legs with small arms, MANPADS and ATGMs against tanks, self-propelled guns, aircraft and helicopters - this is not very effective. Rather, on the contrary, it resembles the German Volkssturm of 1945 with antediluvian rifles and faustpatrons.
And we remember how it all ended then, don't we?
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