Foreign Affairs: Russia Considers Three Scenarios for Ukraine Invasion
Despite a series of recent talks, the United States and Russia have failed to diplomatically resolve the issue of reducing tensions around Ukraine. Since the issue of the Russian attack has already been practically resolved, it remains only to find out how the Russian army will operate. This is written by the American edition of Foreign Affairs.
According to the publication, the United States has not been able to persuade Russia to solve the problem of Ukraine through diplomacy, the buildup of Russian troops on the border continues. Despite assurances from the Russian authorities that there would be no attack, Moscow began to build up military power, moving troops from the Far East to the west of the country, preparing a springboard for a full-scale invasion. The Russian army is now threatening Ukraine and from the territory of neighboring Belarus.
Since the invasion army is ready to attack and is only waiting for Putin's go-ahead, American experts suggest that Moscow is considering three invasion scenarios. Which scenario Russia ultimately chooses depends on Putin's wishes, the newspaper writes.
The first scenario provides for a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis. In this case, Moscow may officially recognize the "occupied Donbas", or annex it, following the example of Crimea. However, this option will bring nothing but additional headaches to the Kremlin, as Moscow loses the rest of Ukraine and the US and NATO deploy additional forces in Eastern Europe.
The second scenario involves a limited offensive to capture additional territories in eastern Ukraine. Under this option, the Russian army will capture Mariupol and Kharkov, a strike to the south is possible to create a land bridge to the Crimea and capture Odessa with further access to Transnistria. However, this option is unlikely, according to American experts, since the Russian army will have to wage war in the conditions of cities, and then fight the partisan movement in the occupied territories.
The third scenario implies a full-fledged large-scale offensive by the Russian army from all directions, involving aviation, fleet etc. In this case, there will be no occupation, the Russian army will quickly enter, cause significant damage to the country's economy, force the government of Ukraine to capitulate, and then come back. The whole task of this operation is to inflict such damage, after which Kiev will not be able to recover. The blows will be inflicted on factories and enterprises, warehouses, civilian and military infrastructure and, of course, on the Verkhovna Rada and the office of the President of Ukraine. This option in the US is considered the most likely.
Regardless of which option Russia chooses, the United States and Europe must respond with unprecedented measures that will cause enormous damage to the Russian economy and the Kremlin will no longer be able to threaten anyone. At the same time, the authors urge not to be afraid of Moscow's retaliatory steps, for example, limiting the supply of energy resources to Europe, promising that the United States will compensate for everything.
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