Military Review

The nuclear deal is like a Persian rug

17
The nuclear deal is like a Persian rug
Photo: US Department of State / flickr.com


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Vienna has resumed the next, already the seventh round of negotiations on a return to the notorious nuclear deal. Iran, after several controversial speeches in the early stages of negotiations, is now effectively demanding guarantees from Washington that there will be no repeat of Trump's demarche.

Iran, as you know, is ready to return to the implementation of the provisions of the JCPOA - the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan, better known precisely as the nuclear deal. And this, of course, will happen as soon as Washington pushes the "lifting sanctions" button.

However, the definition “the framework within which the US will revert to this agreement", Which was scheduled with the arrival of Democratic President Joseph Biden in the White House, is clearly delaying. At the same time, we have to constantly remind that Iran is much more interested in returning to the nuclear deal than the United States.

For the American side, the JCPOA is, with some minor additions, nothing more than a matter of international prestige. One can once again appear in the image of a fighter for the cause of peace and democracy, including the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.

For Iran, a return to the deal is vitally important, and not just because of the desire to enrich uranium, this is something they are doing there at the very least. The main thing for Tehran is to obtain technologies, equipment and even a number of materials that are not in Iran by definition, as well as to open markets for nuclear exports.

Energy, medicine, water desalination - the atomic gentleman's kit is well known. And in principle, it would be quite enough for Tehran to have China and Russia as partners, remember the 3 + 3 formula that Iran adhered to with respect to the nuclear deal.

Not at all 5 + 1, and certainly not 6 + 1 with the addition of Germany. However, firstly, even in this case, the pace of advancement of the nuclear program will be clearly insufficient. And secondly, neither China nor Russia is at all ready to sacrifice everything, even for the sake of Iran.

As you know, at the beginning of autumn, Iran announced the start of uranium enrichment to the level of 60% required for use in a research reactor. In this regard, the IAEA was even required to clarify that

"Uranium enriched to 60% is not yet considered weapons grade, but the level of enrichment is already quite high."


Photo: Tasnim News Agency

The very same deal, which before Trump was looked upon as the least of evils, is now regarded by many as a blessing, moreover, a precedent in case new people wishing to join the atomic club appear.

According to Raphael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), this is perhaps the most important thing. That is why the IAEA expects a more adequate approach from Washington.

The future will never come


Tehran can afford to drag out for as long as it wants. At the same time, the American president, even one as tenacious as Biden, and European leaders always have limited resources. Democracy, elections at the most inopportune moment, unpredictable electorate.

Donald Trump was in a rush to withdraw from the nuclear deal for a reason - he felt something, as you can see. The British prime ministers and the French president rushed in response. An example of calmness was only the German Frau Chancellor, who once launched a trend towards the elimination of nuclear energy in Germany.

But she was hooked on her chair in such a way that it is time to envy the Iranian spiritual leaders, the Belarusian dad, and even the Russian president. And now, without Merkel, even with a crowd of “greens” in power, the German atomic renaissance is practically a settled matter (New Germany - Atomic Renaissance).

By the way, the Germans have nothing to do in Iran without him. Moreover, the already very long experience of building a nuclear power plant and a research center in Iranian Bushehr, which from Germany safely passed under the wing of Russia, showed that the Germans, fortunately, have not forgotten how to skimp.

And they do it, on a command from Washington, at every opportunity. A very real self-elimination of Germany could return the deal to the forgotten 5 + 1 format, when the lonely Iran was opposed by the entire UN Security Council. But this is only in the case of the long-awaited return of the United States.

Germany does not withdraw from the negotiation process, it seems, only for the sake of maintaining its prestige. The business, one way or another involved in the nuclear industry, has not yet come out, and for a long time will not come out of the pressure of the old trend of abandoning the atom in the energy sector.

Therefore, the "green" and in a certain situation can even achieve the impossible - to withdraw Germany from the nuclear deal. It will not be just a sensation, but a truly tremendous success of the global environmental movement.

However, the very recent experience of how the leaders of the Soyuz 90 / Greens party turned their backs to the United States, and to Nord Stream in front, rather speaks in favor of a completely different perspective. Nevertheless, the Iranian press periodically pops up an interesting formula for a new nuclear deal - 3 + 2.

Here the alignment is already extremely simple. In the top three with Iran are friendly Russia and China, which continue to cooperate with the Islamic republic, even despite the approach of Iranian specialists to the threshold of enriching uranium to weapons grade. And the two are France and Great Britain, where business from a break with Iran loses just a lot, not gaining anything at all.

And the past remains in the past


Observers who are scrupulously following the process of returning to the JCPOA believe that for now it is necessary to be content with the fact that the Americans are generally present when discussing key issues. Regularly transmitting to the participants certain proposals from Washington.

In fact, they all look more like ultimatums. That is why it is possible that the American side is also playing for time, seeking only to emphasize that its ability for constructive negotiations has not been completely lost.

Making an excursion into the past, it remains to remind once again that the JCPOA was adopted not so long ago - in 2015. Then the vice-president of the "peacemaker" and by no means an accidental Nobel laureate Barack Obama was "himself" Joseph Biden.


This enviously energetic senator from Delaware became the number two politician in the United States at the most suitable age - only 66 years old. He sat down in the presidential chair, of course, a little late, but his energy was clearly not completely wasted.

Biden immediately set about breaking down Trump's "heavy legacy" and reviving what was done under Obama, including the nuclear deal. However, Democrat Biden, like Republican Trump at first, began with deliberately tough demands on Iran - and now we are talking about a complete return to the status quo of 2018.

In the East, as you know, this happens extremely rarely. In the end, did the Iranian specialists work in vain? Moreover, even now the Iranian nuclear program is quite clearly focused on energy, research and medical projects, as well as projects for desalination of sea water.


The latter are so promising that for their sake, Saudi Arabia is ready to show tolerance for an allegedly "aggressive regime" and even, you will not believe, in Israel, which for years has been teetering on the brink of a direct clash with Iran.

By the seventh Vienna round, the administration of US President Joe Biden once again reminded of its readiness to return to the nuclear agreement. Provided that Tehran will fully comply with the terms of the JCPOA. Iran said in response, also once again, that the first step is for the United States.
Author:
Photos used:
atomic-energy.ru, nos.nl
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  1. Basarev
    Basarev 12 December 2021 09: 46
    -2
    Iran cannot own nuclear technology. And even more so to think about lifting the sanctions. Conditions can only be as harsh as possible, for in the east, kindness is mistaken for weakness and impudent. Therefore, the conditions I see are as follows: termination of the nuclear program, dismantling of all installations, issuance of all radioactive materials and specialists, fierce international control so that Iran can never again take up nuclear technologies ... But by the way, the sanctions cannot be lifted even then. Iran will have to say goodbye to missile technologies, too, too dangerous a toy in the hands of the former ayatollah regime, the destruction of which is the ultimate goal. Further steps are the secularization of Islam (or better, the ban as an alien religion brought in from the outside and imposed by blood and battles and the revival of ancient Zoroastrianism) and the country's first honest and transparent elections, where none of the current ruling class will be allowed, because within lustrations, all of them should be expelled from politics and punished for all their sins demonstratively, none of them should be forgiven, because if you forget even one word against the West, this will create a precedent of impunity. In general, the East German recipe: the prohibition of ideology and symbols, their widespread destruction, regardless of antiquity and value, large-scale persecution, courts and time limits for functionaries. I see an ideal Iran as absolutely secular, democratic, pro-Western in Khlamin's way, that is, ready to destroy its economy for a word of approval, and defenseless, so that in case of any dissatisfaction no one could resist the exemplary punishment for disloyalty to the West. Of course, the punishments should be in excess, there is no need to be trifling here, in the address of these savages the discrepancy between guilt and punishment and collective responsibility are fully justified. The main thing is that in the new Iran everyone understands that the West has the absolute right to judge and pardon without regard to laws and at its own discretion.
    1. Civil
      Civil 13 December 2021 10: 35
      0
      In the top three with Iran - friendly Russia and China,

      In such matters there are no friends. It is not profitable for China to lift the embargo on oil supplies to the West; now they receive oil from Iran at a discount. Competition on the oil market is also not profitable for Russia.
  2. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 12 December 2021 09: 48
    +6
    The nuclear deal stipulated that Iran would only enrich uranium up to the 4% level.
    The United States withdrew from the deal as it turned out that Iran was continuing its military nuclear program. As a fact:
    In January 2021, the Iranian authorities announced that they had started the process of enriching uranium to the 20% level.
    Since April, uranium has gone enriched to 60%.
    What kind of lifting of sanctions can we talk about?
    1. paul3390
      paul3390 12 December 2021 10: 48
      +11
      it turned out that Iran is continuing its military nuclear program

      Actually - what was expected ?? The sad experience of Milosevic, Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as the positive experience of the Kims, clearly showed that in the conditions of the predatory lawlessness perpetrated by the West on the planet, only nuclear weapons can serve as a guarantee of the security of the state. And only that. Should Iran be blamed for wanting to survive?
      1. A. Privalov
        A. Privalov 12 December 2021 12: 18
        -6
        Quote: paul3390
        it turned out that Iran is continuing its military nuclear program

        Actually - what was expected ?? The sad experience of Milosevic, Gaddafi and Saddam, as well as the positive experience of the Kims, clearly showed that in the conditions of the predatory lawlessness perpetrated by the West on the planet, only nuclear weapons can serve as a guarantee of the security of the state. And only that. Should Iran be blamed for wanting to survive?

        No one came running into Iran, no one made any claims against it, no one threatened him. It has no common borders with Israel, no economic or territorial claims.
        1. paul3390
          paul3390 12 December 2021 12: 33
          +8
          No one came running into Iran, no one made any claims against it, no one threatened him


          Yah??? what What is the truth ?? belay
        2. bk0010
          bk0010 12 December 2021 13: 18
          +6
          Quote: A. Privalov
          No one came running into Iran, no one made any claims against it, no one threatened him.
          Seriously? Try to remember why and who turned Iran from a secular state into a religious one.
          Quote: A. Privalov
          It has no common borders with Israel, no economic or territorial claims.
          And what, besides Israel, is there no one else in the world?
  3. knn54
    knn54 12 December 2021 11: 12
    0
    Tehran declares its readiness to return to the implementation of the JCPOA only after the lifting of US sanctions. Washington takes the opposite position: first, compliance with the terms of the deal by Iran, and only then - the resolution of the issue of sanctions.
    Vicious circle?
    - also projects for desalination of sea water.
    It will not work without lifting the sanctions - at least French membranes and German pumps are needed.
    Can somehow highlight the "nuclear deal". And for the BEGINNING to unfreeze the assets of Iran.
    1. paul3390
      paul3390 12 December 2021 12: 35
      +7
      It seemed to me - in fairness and logic, the first step should be taken by the one who first violated the terms of the deal? That is, the United States?
    2. bk0010
      bk0010 12 December 2021 13: 20
      0
      Quote: knn54
      It will not work without lifting the sanctions - at least French membranes and German pumps are needed.
      Or make your own
  4. Hunter 2
    Hunter 2 12 December 2021 11: 16
    +3
    Eh already recourse We are armed with a vigorous cudgel, a neighbor near Our borders - That is at least not needed. Negotiations will be difficult ...
    1. Vladimir61
      Vladimir61 12 December 2021 12: 27
      +1
      Quote: Hunter 2
      We are armed with a vigorous cudgel, a neighbor near Our borders - That is at least not needed.
      Yeah! They are already, all illegally born, only around us and are located and all have problems with neighbors.
  5. Old Michael
    Old Michael 12 December 2021 12: 25
    +2
    For the American side, the JCPOA is, with some minor additions, nothing more than a matter of international prestige.


    I do not agree.
    First, the anti-Iranian sanctions are a snap on the nose of Europe, whose companies have made good money trading with Iran.
    Secondly, it is a double blow to China. On the one hand, the US withdrawal from the JCPOA actually made a similar deal with the DPRK impossible, which was already being worked out in the interests of reducing tensions on the peninsula, in which China is directly interested. On the other hand, China has also successfully sold expensive equipment to Iran, and the US sanctions significantly complicate this process.
    And, finally, who is more interested than others in undermining the power in Iran and establishing a pro-American puppet regime there? The answer is obvious, because it was not for nothing that Trump entered into a support agreement with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) before the election. I think that it was not without the Koch brothers ("Koch Industries"), who modestly keep in the shadows, who are buying up the American political establishment at the root.
    So, it's not only and not so much a matter of prestige. Here we see much more significant goals, including those for the long term.
    hi
  6. Glagol1
    Glagol1 13 December 2021 01: 37
    -1
    The author is not very well informed about the German traffic lights from the new coalition government. There, a really pro-American lobby came to power and they will sculpt a hunchback, as they are told. We will remember Grandmother Angela with nostalgia more than once. Traffic lights are likely to be knocked down as well.
    1. darkesstcat
      darkesstcat 15 December 2021 14: 56
      0
      SP-2 Depends on gas prices. If the cost remains under 1000+ throughout the year, then they will suddenly lose part of their electorate.
  7. Anchonsha
    Anchonsha 13 December 2021 07: 20
    +1
    Nuclear weapons are especially dangerous in the hands of eastern countries, the world will be constantly on a powder keg. but in general, that Iran, that the United States are the same and indeed at least some indulgences, the consensus is perceived as a weakness of the opponent.
  8. Orsis338
    Orsis338 14 December 2021 00: 56
    0
    Obtaining nuclear weapons by Iran will give card blanche to Turkey and Saudi Arabia, do you want the Sultan who shot down the Su-24 with a nuclear bomb or the Wahhabis with cruise missiles stuffed with nuclear stuffing?