Preparedness for war and cataclysms
A reason for reflection
The past week was characterized by several events and reports in the Russian and world media, which prompted reflections on the prospects for the survival of mankind in general and the Russian population in particular in the event of war and / or other cataclysms.
We argue, and not on the basis of groundless fantasies or beliefs of the authorities that they are in control of the situation, but on the basis of facts and documents.
Sad news from last week
Emergencies Minister Yevgeny Zinichev died in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. According to the official version, the general of the army crashed on stones while trying to save the film director Alexander Melnik.
All other details of official messages, including on the official website of the Ministry of Emergencies, are not only contradictory, but also changed several times.
Despite a harsh veto for a fairly large number of witnesses, their testimonies have leaked and are actively discussed in online media and social networks.
We will not do this.
Just fixingthat General Zinichev, as a person, acted with dignity. Compassion and eternal memory!
This also applies to the director Alexander Melnik, who died with him., whose creativity also directly draws us to the problems of life and survival of people in extreme conditions.
Philosophical, universal, moral problems.
In general, the vast majority of catastrophes, from global to this specific local tragedy on the Putorana plateau, are associated precisely with human activity or inactivity.
In the epics of Miller, the epiphany of this:
In the film "New Earth" - a metaphorical diagnosis of modern mankind. In the painting "Territory" - the vaccination formula. And my own premonition of just such a death.
The prosecutor's office is dealing with the rest. The perpetrators will be appointed. Results and conclusions will not be made public. Or they will follow the official version, without analyzing the problems and proposals for their elimination.
And we will not discuss this either.
Zinichev died while visiting one of the most beautiful places in the Krasnoyarsk Territory - the Putorana plateau, where the Kitabo-Oron waterfall is located.
And what if they immediately said that the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations and the director did not die during the exercises? Would this make death and a courageous act less courageous or not very tragic?
Our reading and thinking people have enough such reasons for reflection.
And how to convince people now:
• that the Ministry of Emergency Situations is in control of the situation;
• The Ministry of Emergency Situations knows what to do in any situation, and we know how to do it;
• Will the Emergencies Ministry promptly notify and save everyone?
Tellingly, in the domestic model of dealing with emergencies, the state guarantees that it will take care of the people through the Ministry of Emergency Situations.
The people, judging by his statements on social networks, very much doubt this.
Moreover, the Emergencies Ministry itself gives a reason.
To a quite reasonable question to Google or even Yandex:
- the answers are not particularly different, which would be expected from conspiracy theories. American social networks have not yet reached the point of undermining the preparedness of the Russian population for disasters. But they are not going to help either.
In the first pages of the issue: stories about Ukraine, Afghanistan and even Belarus.
Why on earth?
I asked what an ordinary Russian citizen should do, if what? Naturally, I expected massive public service announcements or at least specific recommendations.
To no avail.
On the third page of the request, I saw at least some recommendation.
Further literal quote:
Learn more about what to do if the military events caught you by surprise.
1. If the shooting caught you in an open place, you need to immediately lie down on the ground and try to crawl behind the nearest shelter (car, trash can, corner of the house).
This can only be done if you are not directly in the line of fire.
You need to crawl tightly to the ground, using your legs alternately to push the body, and your hands to pull it up ...
Then there are three more pages of text.
Informative, but clearly not for our case.
The author eventually found the site of the Ministry of Emergencies.
In addition to tables and graphs describing the work of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, including in the part of civil defense, the site does indeed have infographics with recommendations for actions in critical conditions.
But a normal person in a critical situation is looking for an answer to the question "What to do?", And does not try to visit the website of the Ministry of Emergencies - this is a psychology that all network marketers understand.
But the main thing is that the state, through the mouth of the Ministry of Emergencies, declares that it will notify the population and tell them where to go or run and what to do.
Does she know if the situation is not typical?
Citizens are generally excluded from this process, and given the current media noise, they are also alarmed.
So the conclusion is as follows: an information campaign for the survival of Russians in wartime and / or during disasters in the media space is not carried out or is carried out without understanding Internet technologies and the psychology of compatriots, so if money is spent on it, it’s money down the drain.
Doubters - "Yandex" to help.
Do you have a plan for life after salvation?
This means that officials, including those in charge of the Internet and those responsible for financing media and social advertising, apparently literally understood the president's statement about paradise for Russians. Therefore, preparation for survival, including not only life safety at school, but focused on most of the able-bodied, and even more so the elderly population, is not being conducted.
Or did someone personally feel this work?
Life after salvation
But the most important thing is how to live for people after being saved during a cataclysm or, even worse, during a war, with the inevitable subsequent ecological collapse as its consequence?
Why prepare for disaster?
A disaster can happen at any time, often without warning. Mass destruction can leave you cut off from the outside world for days. Rescuers will be arriving shortly to help in the aftermath of a disaster, but it may be a while before they can reach you. To survive and recover from a natural disaster, it is important to be prepared for any disaster and its long-term consequences.
Do you have a plan?
Having an emergency plan and a disaster coping kit can help overcome almost any type of crisis, whether natural or human-induced.
However, each type of event requires different preparation and action.
Nature is our mother
Natural disasters such as hurricanes, cyclones, floods, wildfires and weather events: Droughts and monsoons are likely to become more frequent due to climate change.
Natural disasters are impossible to prevent and for the most part impossible to control. Even if there is a quick recovery, natural disasters can have long-term consequences.
These events bring with them a host of challenges, including humanitarian crises, health, environmental and infrastructure challenges.
Examples
Natural disasters could be the result of global climate change.
As a reminder, just a few examples from recent months.
Abnormal heat in Russia and in the world
In June, the heat and high temperature took over the territory of the entire planet. A record hot June was in Canada and parts of the United States, with Hong Kong having the highest temperature on record (+36,3). In Russia, the temperature varied from region to region, exceeding the norm by 5-10 degrees.
Volcanic eruption in the Caspian Sea
In early July, an explosion occurred 75 km from Baku, which was initially mistaken for an eruption of underwater oil deposits. The Azerbaijani authorities denied the rumors, saying that in fact there was an eruption of a mud volcano. The Ministry of Emergency Situations clarifies that there is no threat to the oil and gas infrastructure.
Tornado in the Czech Republic
The natural disaster occurred on the evening of June 24th. Damage was inflicted on seven settlements. Up to 300 people were injured, six died. The strongest tornado in recent centuries has destroyed about 1 homes and infrastructure.
Showers in China
On July 17, the strongest downpours in a thousand years fell on the central territory of the country. Most of the Chinese province of Henan was under water, the subway and many buildings were flooded, 71 people died.
Floods in Europe
The flood caused by Cyclone Bernd was the largest in 100 years.
At least 228 people died: 182 in Germany, 42 in Belgium, 1 in Italy, 1 in Austria, 2 in Romania.
Showers and floods in the Kuban
On the territory of the Krasnodar Territory, as a result of heavy rains, they overflowed the banks of the Khorota and Matsesta rivers. Many houses were flooded, a storm warning was announced in the city. In Sochi and Lazarevskoye, tourists were forced to rest among the branches that brought waves during a storm.
Flood in the Khabarovsk Territory
At the end of July, due to prolonged precipitation, the water level in eight rivers of the Khabarovsk Territory increased significantly. The second wave of the flood came on August 3.
Earthquakes in Kamchatka
At the end of June, seismologists recorded three earthquakes off the eastern coast of Kamchatka. On July 14, an earthquake with a magnitude of 5,2 was recorded in the water area of the Avacha Bay.
Fires in Yakutia
Forest fires began on the territory of the republic at the end of June. The smoke from the fires reached the territory of the United States, and because of the smog, residents stopped seeing the sun in the sky.
Summer Moscow floods
War
Even a local war ("Limited war", "small war" and "low-intensity conflict") is always accompanied and / or ends with disasters, including environmental ones.
Regional conflicts usually result in a ruined economy, hunger and poverty.
The social consequences of regional conflicts are expressed, first of all, in the deterioration of the social situation of the population.
The inevitable and dramatic consequence of regional conflicts is the forced migration of the population, the catastrophic growth of refugees. And this is a problem not only of refugees, but also of the host country.
A big war will inevitably lead to natural disasters, among which the nuclear winter will not be the only one, although it will give rise to others.
A full-scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia will lead to a dark and cold winter lasting about ten years.
Psychology
What kind of nuclear war - this cannot be? This is the opinion of the absolute majority of compatriots. But over the past 60 years, there have already been several well-known cases when this was more than a real prospect.
In the latest nuclear exodus model, the researchers used a new scheme to simulate, with a higher resolution and a higher limit of applicability - 140 kilometers above the surface, which is 60 kilometers higher than in the previously presented NASA model.
Experts predict that it will take about seven years for the curtain to begin to noticeably clear, and another three years for the illumination indicators near the Earth's surface to return to normal levels.
In turn, the presence of a soot curtain will lead to a drop in the near-surface air temperature by more than eight degrees Celsius. As shown by the graphs presented in the study, at this level, the temperature anomaly will last about four years, and it will take about a decade to fully return the indicator to pre-war values.
According to the study, 33% of respondents "feel some anxiety" about a nuclear attack, another 14% are very worried about it, and 5% "feel constant fear."
At the same time, 46% of the respondents are not afraid of the onset of such a military conflict.
Half of the population with alarming symptoms is a lot.
And among the older generation, the expectation of war and cataclysms is aggravated by other anxieties and health problems.
Moreover, the human brain is able to imagine the worst that can happen. And the more uncertainty - especially if that uncertainty is combined with dark hypotheses - the more likely the brain is to invent and fix worst-case scenarios.
Understanding the reality of threats and preparing them (even by stockpiling buckwheat and stewed meat) creates the illusion of some control of the situation.
And having an answer or an available reliable and convincing source of information gives people a sense of control, and in a way, it's better than insecurity.
The American government proposes to conduct an annual September “months of damage control” to partially solve this problem.
What about Russia?
Paradise or are there other options?
“We will go to paradise, and they will simply die” - these are the words Vladimir Putin said about the scenario of a possible nuclear war. Even if it was the specific humor of the Russian president, it is obvious that nuclear scenarios are increasingly appearing in the minds of people in the XNUMXst century, an era of strategic instability, collapsed arms control regimes.
- determines the main directions of a unified state policy in the field of civil defense;
- approves the Plan of Civil Defense and Protection of the Population of the Russian Federation;
- introduces the plan of civil defense and protection of the population of the Russian Federation on the territory of the Russian Federation or in its individual localities in full or in part;
- approves the structure, composition of the rescue military formations of the federal executive body authorized to solve tasks in the field of civil defense, the staffing of military personnel and civilian personnel of these military formations and the regulation on rescue military formations of the federal executive body authorized to solve tasks in the field of civil defense ;
- exercises other powers in the field of civil defense in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation.
Government of the Russian Federation:
- supervises the organization and conduct of civil defense ...
Perhaps the government took the President's metaphor literally? And therefore it does not consider it necessary to prepare the population for survival in critical conditions?
Perhaps these plans are a state secret, since they are not presented in a form accessible to the people?
Therefore, let us discuss the less secret theory and practice of rescuing the population in the United States, for which paradise (according to our president's assumption) does not shine, and, “in order not to die,” they are forced to prepare the population for protection from cataclysms.
National Readiness Month
US National Awareness Month celebrated every September "to raise awareness of the importance of preparing for natural disasters and emergencies that may occur at any time."
The theme for 2021 is “Prepare for Defense. Preparing for natural disasters protects everyone you love. ”
Each of us must do our part this month - we must all prepare to defend ourselves. I urge everyone to get vaccinated, turn on emergency alerts on your smartphone, pack your emergency suitcase, and encourage others in your community to do the same.
Therefore, I, Joseph R. Biden, Jr., President of the United States of America, by virtue of the powers vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, declare September 2021 National Readiness Month.
I call on all Americans to recognize the importance of preparedness and to work together to build our resilience and preparedness.
In the first lines of advice to American citizens for this month:
• Make a plan: talk to friends and family about how you will communicate before, during, and after the disaster. Be sure to update your plan based on the recommendations of the Centers for Disease Control for Coronavirus.
• Assemble the kit: Gather supplies that will last a few days after the disaster for everyone who lives in your home. Remember to consider the unique needs of each person or pet in the event of a quick evacuation. Upgrade your kits and supplies as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control.
• Inexpensive and free readiness: Start today by signing up for alerts, securing important documents, and other low-cost, free preparedness measures to reduce the impact of disasters and emergencies on you and your family.
• Teach your youth to be prepared: talk to your children about preparing for emergencies and what to do if you are apart. Reassure them by providing information on how they can participate in the salvation.
Call for the military
An example is this appeal from the US Navy command:
The preparedness mindset, much needed by the navy, is also of paramount importance outside of service and should be practiced year-round to ensure that every seafarer, civil servant, contractor, and family member is prepared to deal with natural disasters and other disasters.
“Mission readiness is a concept embedded in every sailor of the naval fleetbut it is imperative that each of us take the time to be personally prepared for what may come our way. "
U.S. National Preparedness System
The National Preparedness Framework describes an organized process for everyone in the community to advance their preparedness activities and achieve the National Preparedness Goal.
National Preparedness Goal
The National Preparedness Goal defines what it means for the entire community to be prepared for all types of disasters and emergencies.
The goal itself is laconic:
These risks include events such as natural disasters, disease pandemics, chemical spills and other man-made hazards, terrorist attacks and cyberattacks.
National Incident Management System
The National Incident Management System (NIMS) directs all levels of government, nongovernmental organizations and the private sector to work together to prevent and protect from incident mitigation, response and recovery.
NIMS provides stakeholders across the community with a common vocabulary, systems and processes for successfully realizing the opportunities described in the National Preparedness Framework. NIMS defines operating systems that describe how everyone works together during incidents.
Weekly Topics
Each week in September, a US campaign focuses on different aspects of preparedness for individuals, families, and communities.
Week 1, September 1-4: make a plan.
Talk to friends and family about how you will communicate before, during, and after the disaster. Be sure to update your plan based on the recommendations of the Centers for Disease Control for Coronavirus.
Week 2, September 5-11: create a kit. Gather supplies that will last a few days after the disaster for everyone who lives in your home. Remember to consider the unique needs of each person or pet in the event of a quick evacuation. Upgrade your kits and supplies as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control.
Week 3, September 12-18: natural disasters won't wait for you to be prepared. Preparation for them shouldn't wait either. Get started today by signing up for alerts, securing important documents, and other low-cost and free preparedness measures to reduce the impact of disasters and emergencies on you and your family.
Including animals.
Week 4, September 19-25: teach the youth to be prepared. Talk to your children about preparing for emergencies and what to do if you are apart. Reassure them by providing information on how they can participate in disaster preparedness and interact with you.
Extreme risks
If you think the extreme risks are too small to worry about, just think about what the asteroid Yucatan did to the dinosaurs.
Towers Watson recently updated its list of extreme risks to global economic, social and political stability. These risks, although unlikely, will have serious implications for insurers and, more globally, for countries and global financial markets and infrastructures.
I will describe only two groups.
Extreme technological risks include:
• Biotechnological disaster... Biological technologies (genome, nanotechnology and others) are used in a destructive way, intentionally or accidentally.
• Cyber war... Large scale computer sabotage / espionage with severe damage to infrastructure, financial, medical or defense systems.
• Infrastructure failure. Interruption of the infrastructure mains network that disrupts the economy or affects basic needs (for example, a power outage for a long period, especially in winter).
• Nuclear contamination. A major nuclear event or large release of radioactivity that is fatal to humans.
• Technological advancement. Technological progress beyond human understanding or control, threatening human life. "Singularity" refers to the moment when computers reach intelligence higher than human and realize its insignificance.
There are five types of extreme environmental risks:
• Alien invasion. An invasion of non-peaceful aliens who want to deprive the planet of resources or enslave / destroy human life.
• Collapse of biodiversity. The destruction of the global ecosystem, leading to problems with food and water supplies, disease or climate problems.
• Space threats. Planetary hazards such as being hit by a large meteorite, giant solar flare, or magnetic storm.
• Change in global temperature. The Earth's climate is becoming less habitable (hot or cold), disrupting social and economic systems.
• Global natural disaster. The confluence of major earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, floods or volcanic eruptions with severe global consequences.
Alien invasion
Alien Invasion is a common feature of science fiction and films in which aliens invade Earth to exterminate and / or enslave humanity, steal planetary resources, or destroy the planet as a whole.
Our history on Earth has given us many examples of what can happen when civilizations with unequal technologies meet - as a rule, the more technologically advanced destroyed or enslaved each other.
Probability score
Most Britons believe that an alien invasion is imminent - and most already have a plan for when this happens.
According to research, six out of ten Britons believe that an alien invasion is imminent, and 80 percent have a plan to fight it.
Other "reliable" plans include calling mom and dad for advice ...
Stocking up on toilet paper, fleeing to the countryside, or relying on "experts" to sort it all out are also possible strategies.
But a quarter have a less productive approach - they only intend to panic.
Actions when attacked by zombies
The US Department of Defense has prepared a rescue plan in the event of a possible attack by the zombie army. The document, codenamed CONOP 8888, contains detailed instructions on how to survive the attack of the living dead and destroy them. In addition, the plan contains recommendations on how to maintain law and order after a zombie attack.
According to the plan, there are several options for the development of events in the event of a zombie attack. In the worst case, zombies with a high contagion rate eat up large numbers of people and infect them.
In this situation, it is almost impossible to resist the living dead.
The document was developed back in April 2011. Its creators emphasize the seriousness of the concept. According to the authors, zombies can replace any perceived enemy absolute. By using the image of the living dead instead of a real state, you can avoid political overtones and at the same time create a strong emotional motivation to prepare for various threats to the population.
The operation to save humanity from zombies is generally similar to the suppression of anti-government forces. As in the case of the rebels, the operation goes through stages of "containment", "seizure of the initiative", "domination", "stabilization" and "restoration of civilian power." But it also contains recommendations for the civilian population. And these tips are communicated to people during routine training.
And this, like the invasion of aliens, does not make the Americans laugh. Although the Americans, according to MN Zadornov, are "stupid", they care about their safety seriously.
The last two examples are intended to demonstrate not stupidity, but the foresight of the US government.
Hollywood also helps Americans in this.
Disaster films
This is a specific kind of thriller and drama. We can talk about both a natural disaster (tornado, earthquake, volcanic eruption, etc.), and a man-made disaster (for example, an airplane crash).
More exotic scenarios (see above) are also not rejected.
The catastrophe that destroyed the world most often appears: the third world war with the use of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical or biological), the invasion of aliens, the uprising of machines led by artificial intelligence (robots), pandemic, asteroid impact, mass appearance of prehistoric monsters, climatic or other disasters.
What are the goals of such films, besides commercial and entertainment?
They form models of behavior and inspire hopes for a hero, naturally American (Willis, Schwarzenegger, Stallone, Tom Cruz), who will save the world at the last moment ...
Not all of these works reach our viewer. Therefore, both the effect and the confidence are less.
It should be borne in mind that various government agencies today have their offices in Hollywood, ranging from the FBI to NASA and the Secret Service.
Few of these agencies, however, have something to offer in exchange for changing scripts, and thus their influence in Hollywood is minimal. The notable exception here is the Department of Defense.
But since the industry is in fact absolutely open to any manipulation by various government services, then in films about disasters, close to possible models of behavior for the population are proposed, thus decisive some issues of preparing people for emergencies.
Let's go back to Russia
We fall to the primary sources
Actions of the population in the event of armed conflicts and local wars.
With the onset of a military threat, martial law (Martial Law) may be introduced in the region - in the event of an aggression against the Russian Federation or its immediate threat, or a state of emergency (State of Emergency) when an attempt is made to change the constitutional order of the Russian Federation, seizure or appropriation of power, or an armed rebellion.
For all the seeming unexpectedness of the introduction of VP or emergency, such dangers have a rather long ripening period, therefore, when such dangers arise The Ministry of Emergency Situations recommends observing the following rules:
• follow up the news and the recommendations of the authorities through the media and the Internet (Military Review to help!);
• when entering troops, do not go out into the street unnecessarily;
• timely study the orders of the commandant's office and other power structures, strictly observe the curfew and other restrictive measures, unconditionally obey military orders and orders;
• create a supply of water and food for a long period of time;
• to put the most valuable things, documents in an easy-to-carry package and be ready for evacuation at any time when it is required;
• team up with the residents of your house (or neighboring houses) for the purpose of mutual help ...
Inspection of the Ministry of Emergency Situations
Comprehensive inspections of warning systems are carried out on the territory of the country twice a year. The nearest one is scheduled for October 6 of this year, 2021.
Until that time, municipalities and regional authorities must eliminate the shortcomings identified during the last check.
The population will be alerted about any dangers and emergencies in Russia by a single signal "Attention everyone!".
This is due to the emergence of new threats of a natural, man-made and biological-social nature, for each of which it is impractical to come up with a signal of its own, since it will be difficult for citizens to remember them.
Now, after the signal "Attention to all!" the population will be given instructions for action in relation to each specific situation.
That is, during the upcoming events, the readiness of the Ministry of Emergency Situations is checked, and not the ability of the population to act in case of emergencies and their consequences.
Nevertheless, making his feasible contribution to civil defense and taking into account the high attendance of the military, the author considers it appropriate to convey at least to our readers the graphic message of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.
Information