Will the Russian army carry out a general cleaning in the North Caucasus?
After the president included Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov and Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov as part of the National Anti-Terrorism Committee, rumors spread that in a short time Russian units of the regular army could return to the North Caucasus in order to suppress the hotbeds of terrorist activity. Without naming the source, Nezavisimaya Gazeta directly indicates that Russian troops will assist the units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the North Caucasus republics due to the fact that in recent years the number of attacks by bandits has increased dramatically. The number of victims among law enforcement officers after the terrorist attacks in Dagestan, Ingushetia and other North Caucasian regions of the Federation is growing. Information about the possible return of military units in the North Caucasus caused a wide discussion among specialists and among ordinary citizens.
The new phase of the military operation, if any, should be based not only on well-trained fighters, but also on accurate intelligence data. In order to carry out the operation in the optimal mode, it is possible that a decision will be made to involve the special forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Although there is a regulatory framework according to which GRU fighters must carry out operations outside of Russia, the same can be said about absolutely any army unit, because its task is solely to defend against an external aggressor. However, the world has changed so much that the concepts of “external aggression” and “internal aggression” can be classified as philosophical, and therefore the main thing is the destruction of the underground gangs in the North Caucasus, and which units will take part in this destruction is the tenth thing. At the same time, one, as they say, manpower is clearly not enough, therefore, the arrival of new military equipment in the North Caucasus in this case should be expected.
True, is it possible with a high degree of confidence to say that the introduction of a regular army in the North Caucasus will solve the problem of leveling terrorist activity. The fact is that in recent years there has been an approximately the following trend: if a group of thugs in one of the North Caucasian republics is destroyed, then after a while another group appears. The numerical and national composition of this group, network contacts and much more can change, but only the tendency of the formation of a new terrorist ulcer after the removal of the old ulcer is doubtful. Obviously, even if the entire North Caucasus is equipped with checkpoints and the introduction of GRU special forces units into populated areas, unfortunately, North Caucasian terrorism will not disappear anywhere. Why? Yes, because the root of any terrorist activity is social problems. These problems can be artificially cultivated with the involvement of ideas of interfaith and inter-ethnic hatred. To consolidate the people, to give them the opportunity to learn, work and earn in civilized ways, it takes years and even decades, but in order to wreak havoc, sometimes one awkward statement or action is enough that will immediately be taken up by the forces in this chaos.
There is also an alternative opinion on the possible introduction of units of the Russian army in the North Caucasian republics. Many experts believe that the level of terrorist threat that exists in the North Caucasus today cannot be called critical, and therefore the units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, with better coordination of their actions, could restore order here with the active support of the local authorities and the population. But here one of the main problems of the modern North Caucasus appears. Local political elites can not always begin a constructive dialogue with each other, so that the long-awaited peace prevails on this long-suffering land. Confirmation of these words is quite a serious conflict that erupted between the heads of the two republics - Ingushetia and Chechnya. Kadyrov and Yevkurov can not divide the spheres of influence, as well as the territory in which they are called upon to build a constitutional order, accusing each other of non-constructive policies in relation to restoring this order. At the same time, the conflict has gone so far that the heads of the republics demand from each other all the necessary demarcation measures governing the administrative border between the Chechen Republic and Ingushetia. And everyone wants to carry out these demarcation measures exclusively independently without the use of specialists from the other side.
Since the situation between Chechnya and Ingushetia has only been aggravated in recent days, the Russian editions, including the Military Review, raised the question of the need for the federal center to intervene as soon as possible in the dispute between Yevkurov and Kadyrov so that the verbal skirmish does not become a full-scale military conflict with many victims. In this regard, it is quite possible to say that the Caucasus-2012 exercises can become a kind of medicine for the disagreeable heads of Chechnya and Ingushetia, after which military units may well remain in the boundary area between the two indicated republics so that together with the Ingush and Chechen security forces conduct joint operations to destroy gang groups in both Ingushetia and Chechnya.
By the way, the mentioned exercises “Kavkaz-2012”, in which about 8 thousands of servicemen will be involved, hundreds of units of military equipment, the latest monitoring systems for coordinating the actions of military units are already causing concern to some states. The word “some” first of all implies neighboring Georgia, the representative of the Foreign Ministry of which Nino Kalandadze stated that Georgia has every reason to be cautious. This caution is due to the fact that after the exercise the region may be oversaturated weapons. At the same time, other Georgian politicians who represent the party of power declare that Russia under the guise of exercises in the North Caucasus is preparing a provocation against Georgia in order to establish full control over this country.
The whole world has long been heard of the hysterical statements of a whole range of Georgian politicians, and few people see a special reason to sprinkle ashes on these statements from these statements. However, Russia also has its own alarmists, who are inclined to see in the Caucasus-2012 preparation of Russia's attack on Georgia. These people today include a highly respected person, Heydar Jemal, who heads the Russian Islamic Committee. Jemal predicts the following scenario: Russian troops are beginning to exercise on their territory, they are confronted with militant groups that are retreating to Georgia under the onslaught of federal forces. Further, according to Heydar Jemal, representatives of the Russian divisions may come into conflict with the Georgian security forces, which will provoke a new war in the Caucasus ...
The head of the Islamic Committee, after such a forecast, and even the words that President Putin is ready to arrange a "forceful disassembly with Georgia", looks like a person with a very rich imagination. It would seem that the head of the Islamic Committee, by definition, should refrain from such radical statements, but for some reason Mr. Jemal was drawn to very controversial divinations, which only add fuel to the fire.
Strange thing: many prophets spoke about the weakness of Russia, when, due to a number of reasons, Russia was not able to conduct large-scale exercises. At the same time, Russia's weakness was criticized both on the right and on the left. Now, when the possibility of conducting exercises with the involvement of a large number of forces and means has appeared, new opinions arise (and often from the same forecasters): Russia suddenly began to behave aggressively and is ready to tear apart its remote democracies ... It is strange that the end of the world according to the Mayan calendar, they were not connected with the Russian exercises in the North Caucasus and the possible introduction of army units into the region for a long time ...
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