Why do we need exercises in Tajikistan
Photo: MTRK MIR
The transfer of power into the hands of the Taliban (requested in the Russian Federation) is proceeding according to the scenario previously predicted by many analysts. The provinces, where the power of the Kabul government was really weak, are effortlessly coming under the control of the militants. Everything is happening fast enough, and this was also predicted.
So far, busy with the fight against detachments loyal to the legitimate government, the Taliban do not climb north, but by October-November, the first areas where Taliban control will be established should be expected at the borders (request in the Russian Federation). For most Russians, the issue of strengthening border protection looks quite simple: to strengthen border outposts and redeploy military units closer to the border. In theory, the solution is quite obvious.
And practically?
A country with an armed force of 15, a reserve of 000 and a border of 20 kilometers, will it be able to provide reinforcement in all possible directions?
The army, which is mainly armed with Soviet weapon and technology, diluted with some types of equipment and supplies from China, is it really a threat to the Taliban?
Exercises as a warning to your own population about the danger
Literally in a few days, from 5 to 10 August this year, serious exercises of the Tajik army will be held on the Tajik-Afghan border together with units of units and subunits of Russian troops.
The purpose of the exercises is set quite clearly - to test the capabilities of army units to quickly respond to possible provocations at the border.
According to some sources, the significance of the exercise is so great that it will be personally assessed by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon.
It is also known that the preparation for the exercises, which will take place at the Harb-Moydon training ground in the Khatlon region, has been instructed to take personally under the control of the commander of the Central Military District, General Alexander Lapin. This means that soon we will hear about his visit to the 201st military base.
Today, there is a strengthening of the material and technical base not only of the military base itself, but also of Rahmon's army. In particular, for example, China just a few days ago transferred some weapons as part of the program to combat the Taliban (request in the Russian Federation). At the base itself, new armored personnel carriers with new warheads appeared.
The fact that Tajikistan is preparing for the exercises very seriously is already obvious. It is enough that the reservists and equipment have already been mobilized. There have never been such events in modern Tajikistan. The last such mobilization was carried out in December 1979, before the start of the Afghan war, that is, even at a time when the country was part of the USSR.
It is clear that for a poor Tajikistan, holding such large-scale events is very costly and will hit the country's budget quite seriously. But Dushanbe cannot do without training such a global mobilization. Those who have participated in such events at least once know perfectly well how many funny things happen there.
For example, when the troops of the USSR entered Afghanistan in 1979, among the "partisans" there were drivers under the age of 60 years. I spoke with one such participant in the events from the Surkhandarya region.
“I have just received a new ZIL-131. And suddenly he is taken into the army. I've been waiting for this car all my life. And in the army they will give it to some young reckless driver and what will he do with it? So I served in my ZiL for three months in Kunduz "...
The call for reservists for Tajikistan is a serious event. It will "shake up" the people, show the danger of militants from a neighboring state, and set people up for possible dangers. In general, the President of Tajikistan took a rather serious step by deciding on joint exercises. Indeed, as elsewhere, there are forces in Dushanbe that will take power into their own hands with great pleasure.
Why are the exercises necessary not only for Moscow and Dushanbe, but also for other members of the CSTO
There is one common circumstance in the statements of our Defense Ministry and the President of Tajikistan, in the comments of analysts and experts. These are not exercises organized by Dushanbe and the Kremlin, these are exercises within the framework of the CSTO treaty. It is clear that even when the Treaty was just being planned, the possibility of an aggravation of the situation in Afghanistan was calculated.
The scenario of events that took place in this country was predicted by MoD analysts. Accordingly, the headquarters prepared plans to eliminate possible dangers in such a development of events. These plans are being implemented today.
Sometimes a quite logical question arises about the membership in the CSTO of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Why didn't they become CSTO members?
In my opinion, the answer is simple. After the collapse of the USSR, Soviet military units and formations came under the jurisdiction of the new republics. Thus, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which were filled with a sufficient number of military formations since the Afghan war, considered that they could resist the aggression of their southern neighbors on their own.
On the territory of Tajikistan, there were no serious military formations. After the formation of an independent state, the Armed Forces simply did not appear in the country. The equipment and weapons that President Rakhmon now has is, in fact, a gift from Russia. Soviet weapons, Soviet armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, Soviet vehicles. There is no money in the country to purchase the latest samples. The CSTO became a gift for Dushanbe, thanks to which it was possible to reduce military spending.
The danger of the Taliban (requested in the Russian Federation) is not so much that the militants can begin to establish their own order in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan or Kazakhstan, but in the spread of the Taliban ideology and their ideas among young people. Impunity breeds new adherents. Look how briskly the militants in Syria began to "see clearly" after the start of the operation of the Russian Armed Forces and how the flow of those wishing to create an Islamic state decreased.
Short summary
The exercises, which will soon begin in the Khatlon region of Tajikistan, are necessary. All participants need them. Russian units will be able to really work out the capabilities of redeployment, deployment and organization of defense. The Tajik army will be able to train interaction with Russian units, commanders will master the practice of managing personnel in extreme conditions, units will receive more modern weapons, etc.
I repeat, I do not believe in the possibility of real hostilities in the coming months on the border with Afghanistan. Nor do I believe that the Taliban will be able to establish control in the northern regions of Afghanistan. Some local small areas may come under their control, but the main part of the region will be under the control of local clans.
In fact, the exercises began at 4 am on July 22nd.
It was at this time that the army and all the security forces of Tajikistan were alerted. Reservists were also involved in alarm. This whole war machine is working today.
Some units of the Russian military were raised on alert. So, the tankers have already made a march with a length of more than 200 km and have already taken up positions at the Harb-Moydon training ground. On the one side, Tanks are preparing for exercises, and on the other hand, the training ground is located just 20 km from the border. Airmobile units and mountain riflemen have already been deployed there. There remain motorized riflemen who will arrive directly at the beginning of the exercise.
The importance of these exercises, in my opinion, lies precisely in the fact that our allies in the CSTO will be able to see the real possibilities of the treaty. Not what they tried to bring under the treaty in Nagorno-Karabakh, when that territory was not the territory of Armenia. This time we are talking about the protection of the real territory of one of the CSTO members. The teachings increase our credibility among allies, and in the world as well.
Information