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It is strange on the day of memory and sorrow, on the day on which the first Soviet people died 80 years ago from fascist bullets, shells, bombs, to remember completely different sorrowful events. Happening right now, this minute and second. Yes, today tens of thousands do not perish, even thousands per day do not perish, but is the number of lives taken from humanity so important? Even one life is a tragedy.
Many readers in their comments express outrage at the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas. Actions vile, cynical and unworthy of a military man. Only bandits do this. To fire on an ambulance, which even OSCE observers warned about, to kill a doctor is a crime. The deaths and injuries of servicemen in war or in combat operations are familiar and understandable. But to shoot at those who save ...
The Ukrainian military cannot fail to understand this. No matter what observers, journalists, experts say, there are certain laws of war, violation of which leads to the fact that even for your own people you become a stranger. You become an outcast, like, for example, the punitive battalions of nationalists for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, even realizing that they are acting disgustingly, the Ukrainian military goes on such operations. Why? What drives them to commit a crime?
Che? Ukraine is not dead?
I rarely touch upon the topic of Ukraine. Simply because I do not consider this state to be viable in its present form. The disintegration has already begun, and now it is already impossible to stop it. That is why I placed question marks in the first line of the Ukrainian anthem.
When you read or listen to analysts or experts about the problems of modern Ukraine, you understand that the overwhelming majority of them reduce the problem of Donbass to a political plane. Ukrainians in Lvov and Kiev think differently from Ukrainians in Donetsk and Lugansk. Perceived differently history, see the future differently and other issues of the same kind.
I agree that perhaps the main problem of President Zelensky is personal cowardice, not the ability to resist someone else's will. Hence the fear of nationalists, the fear of Poroshenko, the fear of the EU, the fear of the United States, the fear of Russia. A sort of global fear and desire that someone else should do all the work to preserve the country entrusted to him by the people. For any price. Hence the ostentatious bravado with numerous trips to Donbass. With the distribution of orders and medals "under the bullets of snipers and mines of the separatists."
I also agree that there is very little time left before the mass grabbing of land from the peasants begins. Tales about the fact that the land will be bought at some cosmic prices - just a bunch of hay, suspended in front of the face of a hungry donkey, so that he could drag the load to the last. But attacks by activists and militants on those who try to resist the sale of land will soon become a reality.
And three billion, which very soon have to be paid for borrowed loans as interest, is an unbearable burden for the current government, which Ukraine cannot lift without a new loan. This is also an axiom. Therefore, there will soon be another episode of the comedy in Washington, titled "Give us the allocated 100 million." By the way, this is an answer to those who do not understand why Zelensky is so fidgeting about such an insignificant amount.
The Ukrainians are successfully destroying their own economy, but they have practically destroyed industry and science, and now they are forced to beg for practically everything from "all the worlds." Everything that military specialists talk and write about - in the field of new weapons, military equipment, combat support systems, is nothing more than an attempt to modernize long-obsolete Soviet facilities.
This is just a small list of problems of a neighboring state, which can be continued for a long time. But those who are interested in the issues of Ukraine will be perfectly able to tell about it themselves. I want to turn the conversation into a slightly different plane. From political to more understandable for the Armed Forces - the military.
Ukrainian strategists have already taken Donbass ... Mentally
The arrogance and complete disregard of the laws of war on the part of the Ukrainian military is based not only on the lack of reaction on the part of the West to violations of the agreements, but also on the fact that they are confident that they can take Donbass quickly and so that Russia will not even twitch.
The version of the plan that I will present today is just one of several that exist in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Donbass is also aware of its existence. So I do not intend to reveal military secrets. I immediately apologize to the readers from the staff specialists, the material has been adapted for understanding civil readers.
So, let's start with the goals and objectives of the operation. There are only three of them in terms of importance. Firstly, the de-occupation of Donbass, a complete clean-up of the republics' territories from the armed formations of the LPNR. Secondly, the local movement of Ukrainian units to the regions bordering with Russia. And, thirdly, access to the border with the Russian Federation and the consolidation of units and subdivisions of the armed forces of Ukraine on the Ukrainian-Russian border. As you can see, the operation is purely offensive.
Necessary measures for preparing an offensive on Donbass. First of all, the transfer of all available artillery, including the most powerful, to the operation zone. To do this, it is necessary to create in the enemy a sense of chaotic movement of artillery and tank units along the line of contact. Enemy reconnaissance must constantly inform their command about such movements for a sufficiently long time.
At the same time, it is necessary to move the most combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the first echelon into the areas of the future offensive. The rest, including heavy artillery, national guards, territorial defense battalions, etc., form second echelon units. Aviation, tanks and combat vehicles should be concentrated in areas adjacent to the areas of the main attack.
Under the guise of conducting planned exercises of the reserve, it is necessary to carry out a partial mobilization of personnel. It is necessary to call on veterans of military operations. This will not alarm the LPNR corps command in Russia. At the same time, a massive ideological indoctrination of the population should be carried out through the media. It is necessary to create the impression that those called up from the reserve did not strengthen the units, but, on the contrary, act in a destructive manner.
The leadership of Ukraine, the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense at this time should at all international platforms raise the topic of the implementation of the Minsk agreements, the need to develop some additional new documents, new approaches. It is necessary to make contacts with Russia and the West on this issue. Negotiate and stuff. The goal is to create the appearance of a desire for the NATO countries and Moscow to resolve the issue through diplomatic means.
At the same time, periodic provocations of DRGs, snipers, mortars, etc. should be perceived by observers as an initiative of direct personnel on the front line. As a result of the moral and military degradation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Provocations should be carried out in different areas, against different divisions of the LPR, by different forces and means.
Direct conduct of hostilities
Taking into account the forces and means at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the corps of the republics, as well as the possible reaction to the activation of the military base on the part of Russia, the offensive must be carried out in two directions. Exit to the line Debaltsevo-Uglegorsk and Dokuchaevsk-Starobeshevo. That is, to the boundaries determined by the Minsk agreements of September 5, 2014.
At the same time, the offensive should not have the character of squeezing out the corps from the territory of Donbass. Assault groups should attack, using helicopters and military equipment to quickly penetrate into the rear of the corps, then bypass the fortified positions, leaving them to the troops of the second echelon. The main task is to reach the border and eliminate the possibility of military assistance to the corps from Russia.
At the same time, artillery and aviation should strike at military and civilian infrastructure, destroying warehouses, roads, bridges, enemy troops and equipment. For this, in particular, drones. There is a problem here that needs to be resolved quickly. This is the creation of effective air defense systems that would operate approximately the same as it was in the war on 08.08.08.
The plan also takes into account the reaction of the world community to the offensive. A short-term escalation of hostilities will not cause a negative attitude from the West. On the contrary, in the event of an offensive by Russian troops, the next US and NATO sanctions will fall on Moscow. Simply because the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can always be interpreted as just a return to the Minsk agreements.
Why Republicans will lose
It is clear that the Ukrainian plan is based on initially incorrect initial data. First of all, on the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not opposed by proven and experienced soldiers, but by the militia. The headquarters of the Ukrainian army do not want to see the obvious facts. They recognize the improvement in their own army and do not recognize the same improvement in the enemy army.
A miner, driver, businessman, janitor in 2014 is a militia. But this same fighter in 2021 is no longer just a soldier or an officer. He is an experienced, tried and tested professional.
In addition, Ukrainians are confident that the LDNR does not have its own professional officers capable of commanding effectively. The main thesis of such reasoning goes something like this - the Russians send advisers to the LPNR from among those officers who are not needed in their own army. Simply put, military advisers in Donbass are not at all the same as military advisers to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These are army losers or snatchers who came to the LDNR to make money. That is, there is a management problem in the buildings at all levels. Both strategic and tactical.
In addition, the speed of decision-making in corps is inferior to the speed of decision-making in the Armed Forces. Double subordination is to blame. Donetsk and Lugansk are coordinating their actions with Moscow. That in the conditions of a quickly carried out operation will become almost a decisive factor in the victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The big problem of the corps is the lack of personnel and the moral and psychological state of the units. Today, in connection with the receipt of Russian passports by many residents of the republics, there is a real opportunity to go to Russia to work instead of serving in the army. At the same time, the salary in Russia, for Russian citizens, is much higher than the salary in the armies of the LPNR.
The corps officers who conducted offensive operations in 2014-2016 are now outside the army. They were replaced by others who were used to waging a "trench" war. Which is also a negative point from the point of view of the strategists of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Some conclusions
The offensive plan presented with large reductions may well be implemented by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I’m not about doing this plan, I’m about trying to do it. Moreover, the situation for Kiev is extremely unfavorable. The EU and NATO have effectively abandoned Ukraine. Ukrainian politicians unanimously accuse Merkel and Macron of betrayal. US President Biden did no better.
Russia, judging by what is happening in the world, has also lost interest in this territory. The substitution of Ukrainian goods is almost complete. The production of components previously produced by Ukraine has been established. Transport routes around the neighboring state have been mastered. Crimea, necessary to ensure the security of its southern borders, returned to Russia.
"AntiRussia", which was so successfully created by the Ukrainians, is no longer popular. Selling it is getting harder and harder. World leaders have come to understand that Moscow has once again become one of the centers for making global decisions. This was felt not only by Ukrainians, but also by Poles, Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians.
Internal problems, the destruction of state institutions, the increasingly frequent confrontation between the west and east of the country at the human level, a drop in the standard of living of the people, a massive departure of the population to other countries ... And at the same time, it is impossible to take any measures to maintain the attractiveness of Ukraine as a state without outside help.
There is only one thing left. Start the active phase of the war. Only this can attract the attention of Russia's opponents. Only by these actions it is possible, albeit forcibly, to keep people inside the country. Only for this it is possible to solicit new loans and somehow postpone payments on old loans.
Probably, this explains the antics of the Ukrainian military in the Donbass. And if you look at Kiev's actions over the past six months, some of them fit well into Kiev's strategy. In any case, it is necessary to understand the danger of the beast cornered ...