Military Review

The situation in Chad: is there a Russian trace in it?

25

In the spring of 2021, Chad became the focus of world media attention after the death of the country's President, Marshal Idris Debi Itno. A former military professional, Idris Deby led Chad for thirty years, from 1990 to 2021. One of the oldest African politicians in power, Deby took the helm of the country in a completely different coordinate system and skillfully steered for three decades.


Marshal died on the front lines


The president was 68 years old, but this did not prevent him, as a real military leader, from dying on the battlefield: Idris Debi went to lead the operation of his troops against the rebels in the north of the country, where he was mortally wounded.

For Chad, the presence of a military leader on the front lines is commonplace. People say troops don't fight unless big commanders sit in the first car on the front line,

- says French Chad specialist Jerome Tubian.

Rebels based in neighboring Libya invaded Chad after the April 11 presidential elections, in which Idris Deby was elected to another six-year term. Naturally, opponents of the "eternal" president accused him of undemocratic rule. But the marshal himself led his troops into battle and turned out to be far from eternal.


Idris Deby attending the title of Marshal of Chad, 2020

The death of Deby, who ruled Chad for more than thirty years, has added even more uncertainty to the life of this not particularly stable African republic. For a long time, the civil war has not stopped in Chad, which the rebels from the Front for Change and Accord in Chad are waging against the government of the country.

The West sees what is happening as a consequence, including Russian interference in African affairs. For example, the Western press writes that the leader of the front, Mohammed Mahdi Ali, enjoys the support of the commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. The Times, for example, published an article claiming that Russia, through the Wagner Group, hired fighters from the Front for Change and Accord in Chad, with whom the Russians had already interacted during the fighting in Libya. However, of course, there is no real confirmation of such statements.

The main reasons for Russia's interest in Chad


The return of Russia to Chad, as well as to other African countries, looks quite natural. First, the Soviet Union once played a huge role in the life of almost most countries on the continent. The orbit of Soviet influence included many African states, but, in addition, Moscow also patronized rebel groups in those countries where pro-Western governments were in power.

The second factor contributing to Russia's return to Africa is France's loss of real influence over its former colonies. In recent years, Paris has more and more clearly demonstrated either its inability or unwillingness to control the situation in the African republics, which were once part of the huge French colonial empire. The civil war has been going on for years in Mali, where the French contingent is still present, and the Central African Republic has long come under Russian influence. Chad is another former French colony, where not everything is calm either.

The third factor is economic interests. The appetites of Russian companies are growing, and the African continent is a very fertile ground for business development in a number of areas, primarily in the extraction of natural resources. In East Africa, Russia has a strong competitor in the person of China, so Moscow has recently become more interested in the Central African direction.

Chad held back radical expansion


But back to Idris Debi. In power for thirty years, he nevertheless received little criticism from the West. Even French President Emmanuel Macron attended Deby's funeral in the Chadian capital N'Djamena. The explanation for such attention to the deceased Chadian marshal is simple: Deby was a typical pro-Western politician of the old colonial school. He received a military education in France and then regularly served the former metropolis, defending its interests, both in his native Chad and abroad.

To Deby's credit, it should be said that he formed a fairly combat-ready army by African standards, and this, given the general economic backwardness of Chad, is very surprising. But the fact remains: Chadian troops were used to curb the expansion of Libya under Muammar Gaddafi, fought on the side of the French in Mali, were part of most of the combined contingents in Nigeria, CAR, Sudan, and so on. That is, Deby was beneficial to the West, but his death put French influence in the country into question.

However, can it be precisely Russian influence that can be viewed as a factor destabilizing the situation in Chad? The statements of the Western media about Haftar's support for the rebels of Chad are not entirely correct. Although their headquarters are located in the Libyan province of Fezzan, the Front for Change and Reconciliation in Chad previously had big problems with the Libyan National Army: aviation The LNA even bombed rebel positions. Then, nevertheless, it was possible to come to an agreement.

Another rebel group is the Military Command Council for the Rescue of the Republic, led by Rashid Mahamat Tahir. This group is actively supported by Qatar and Turkey, as well as the Libyan presidential council. Islam plays an important role in the ideology of the Council of Military Command for the Salvation of the Republic, which gave the Western media a reason to present Chad in the era of Idris Deby as the last outpost on the way to the penetration of Islamism into tropical Africa.


Mahamet Deby Itno, interim President of Chad

The growth of Turkish-Qatari influence in Central Africa is clearly not part of Russia's plans. Moreover, in Libya, Russia supports the forces fighting against Turkey's allies, and in the CAR it supports the government, which is also fighting against Islamist rebel groups. It would seem, why, in that case, would it be necessary to destroy Idris Debi? Unless only for the purpose of reformatting the military-political situation in Chad.

What is in store for Chad in the near future and what position will Russia take?


Now the interim president of the country has been proclaimed the son of Idris Debi, 37-year-old General Mahamat ibn Idris Debi Itno, who commanded the presidential guard. A professional military man, Mahamat, like his father, received his military education in France and then served in various positions in the Security Service of government agencies and in the armed forces of Chad.

However, Mahamat is unlikely to have the abilities and, moreover, the authority of his father, and it is still unclear whether he will be able to retain power in a difficult political situation, when columns of rebels are moving to N'Djamena from the north of the country. To protect the power, Mahamet Debi decided to transfer 1200 Chadian soldiers and officers serving in the problem region at the junction of the borders of Niger and Mali to Chad. The Chadian contingent there played a key role in containing the Islamists, and as soon as the military from Chad left home, the militants immediately intensified in the Tillaberi region.

A professor at the University of Niamey (Niger), a former military man Amadou Vounty Diallow, believes that the withdrawal of Chadian troops could lead to a collapse in Niger and Burkina Faso, where the presence of the Chadian military was a deterrent for radical groups. So far, there is no alternative to the Chadian contingent, and the French are unlikely to want to get involved in hostilities in another problem area, besides Mali.

But the Chadian army, despite its combat effectiveness, cannot be compared with the armies of European states. As in any other African country, tribalism is very strong in Chad. The army is no exception: it also has clans represented by different tribal groups, and if Idris Debi managed to maintain relatively harmonious relations between the tribes, then it is not a fact that his young son will succeed. It is possible that events in Chad will develop along the same path that they developed in neighboring Libya after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi. In this situation, each of the opposing groups will receive influential patrons in the West or the Middle East. And there is no doubt that Russia, which also has its own interests in Central Africa, will support either side.

France has already declared its support for the military council under the leadership of Mahamet ibn Idris Debi, which could not be doubted: after drawing conclusions after the overthrow of Gaddafi, Paris is no longer in a hurry to support African "democrats".

It is not yet clear which side Russia can take. It is possible that at the official level Moscow will also express support for Makhamet Deby, but in reality it will give preference to one of the groups competing with him.
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  1. maxim1987
    maxim1987 April 29 2021 15: 19
    +9
    The third factor is economic interests. The appetites of Russian companies are growing, and the African continent is a very fertile ground for business development in a number of areas, primarily in the extraction of natural resources. In East Africa, Russia has a strong competitor in the person of China, so Moscow has recently become more interested in the Central African direction.

    it is a pity that "Russian" companies have no interest in Donbass, there are only Russian people request
    1. 210ox
      210ox April 29 2021 15: 29
      +9
      Influence in Africa is certainly not bad. But when there is a mess and nationalist cathophony near his home, distant interests seem strange.
      1. ghby
        ghby April 30 2021 07: 43
        +1
        Quote: 210ox
        Influence in Africa is certainly not bad. But when there is a mess and nationalist cathophony near his home, distant interests seem strange.

        Have you ever thought that life is not a computer strategy, where everything develops sequentially? In reality, you have to do everything in parallel, while somewhere it turns out somewhere not very good.
        1. 210ox
          210ox April 30 2021 09: 31
          +2
          Yes, of course it is. But there are priorities. My opinion is our people, including those in the near abroad. And you can draw a lot of parallels. Syria, Libya, Chad, Sudan. And rip your navel. At the same time, at the same time, to lose what is near and dear.
          1. Barberry25
            Barberry25 1 May 2021 09: 35
            -3
            "that which is near and dear" in fact was lost 30 years ago + okay, we "save Donbass" through the recognition and introduction of a military contingent .. and "Russians in Ukraine" in other areas .. forget their type? and yes, we will rent the multibillion-dollar SP-2 at once for scrap?
            1. 210ox
              210ox 1 May 2021 13: 39
              0
              Did I just say about Donbass?
              1. Barberry25
                Barberry25 2 May 2021 17: 05
                -2
                but even to transfer it to the whole of Ukraine. We are talking about the development of Russia, not about saving the broken pieces .. I will certainly catch a bunch of minuses now, but I’ll say frankly, I’m sorry for people, but if now they are all “saved”, in 10 years we will at best be able to reach the current level. .if we are very lucky, and 9 out of 10 rescued will spit in our backs and talk about "it would be better if they stayed in Ukraine, could go to the EU." Ukraine and the rest of the "former republics" for the sake of "salvation" ... Who wants to, can move to Russia .. get citizenship and live
                1. 210ox
                  210ox 2 May 2021 19: 36
                  0
                  Well, we are pumping billions into the same Crimea. Let's! Let's be honest and admit that I took advantage of the situation and returned Crimea. And we could take advantage of the situation in the LPR. By the way, are you sure that SP2 will be launched? I'm not sure about that.
                  1. Barberry25
                    Barberry25 2 May 2021 22: 19
                    -2
                    only we will talk about trillion rubles .. how many citizens in the Crimea? 2,5 million at most? And how much money did it take? I might be wrong, but it was about hundreds of billion rubles to restore infrastructure ... and local corrupt officials are still under pressure ... in 7 years this problem has not been solved ... but how much will be needed for 40 million Ukraine? trillions of rubles .. and without recoil, under the ban of the sp-2 and shutdown, under shouts about "why did you capture us" ... Come on, in fact, the Ukrainians do not want to be friends with Russia, they elected the Nazis to power, they allowed the SS marches in the center of Kiev .. And now Russia must run to "save" them, instead of rebuilding their country? cool policy .. did not live well, and you do not need to start .. let us help all the poor and the poor according to the classics of the USSR .. Let me remind you what it is Ukraine was completely gasified, and not Russia even in the western part ... So no, thanks, let them eat the porridge that they made
    2. 210ox
      210ox April 29 2021 15: 35
      +4
      You rightly pointed out. Who manages the "domestic and" companies. At best, people with dual citizenship.
    3. Normal ok
      Normal ok April 29 2021 16: 28
      0
      Quote: maximNNX
      The third factor is economic interests. The appetites of Russian companies are growing, and the African continent is a very fertile ground for business development in a number of areas, primarily in the extraction of natural resources. In East Africa, Russia has a strong competitor in the person of China, so Moscow has recently become more interested in the Central African direction.

      it is a pity that "Russian" companies have no interest in Donbass, there are only Russian people request

      There is interest, very specific. Coal that is mined in the LPR for a penny is then resold as Russian at real prices.
  2. rocket757
    rocket757 April 29 2021 15: 28
    +1
    Another country where everything can break out and ... again refugees and other "joys" of such conflicts.
  3. Cowbra
    Cowbra April 29 2021 15: 29
    0
    For the author - to begin with - to teach geology. He is tightly wooden, well, he does not understand WHAT he wrote about - what, for example, Chad is rich in. A stupidly ugly article - exactly what is stupid to the echo!
    1. nerd.su
      nerd.su April 29 2021 22: 15
      +1
      Quote: Cowbra
      For the author - to begin with - to teach geology.

      What's wrong with geology? The main thing is that there is oil! Well, to the heap there are reasonable suspicions of uranium, REE, gold again. And it must be remembered that Central Africa is the least explored; discoveries of very serious deposits are possible.
      1. Cowbra
        Cowbra April 29 2021 23: 04
        -1
        "Botan", you say? You all said that the author forgot
  4. tsvetkov1274
    tsvetkov1274 April 29 2021 15: 42
    +1
    Bashirov and Petrov haven't noticed there yet ??? drinks
    1. Andrey Krasnoyarsky
      Andrey Krasnoyarsky April 29 2021 15: 51
      -1
      So in the first photo Boshirov - one to one, only smeared with soot ...
  5. parusnik
    parusnik April 29 2021 15: 49
    +1
    The third factor is economic interests. The appetites of Russian companies are growing, and the African continent is a very fertile ground for business development in a number of areas, primarily in the extraction of natural resources.
    And it was necessary to start with him, otherwise the interests of Russia ..
  6. abrakadabre
    abrakadabre April 29 2021 16: 17
    -1
    The West sees what is happening as a consequence, including Russian interference in African affairs.
    "Stop the thief!" the thief himself always shouts the loudest.
  7. Undecim
    Undecim April 29 2021 18: 23
    +3
    The third factor is economic interests. The appetites of Russian companies are growing, and the African continent is a very fertile ground for business development in a number of areas, primarily in the extraction of natural resources. In East Africa, Russia has a strong competitor in the person of China, so Moscow has recently become more interested in the Central African direction.

    Recently, there is a strong impression that the site authors have staged a competition in ignorance. There is no other way to explain the maxim about Africa, especially the central one, as a fertile soil for business, it is impossible to explain.
    1. Alexey RA
      Alexey RA April 29 2021 19: 35
      +1
      Quote: Undecim
      Recently, there is a strong impression that the site authors have staged a competition in ignorance. There is no other way to explain the maxim about Africa, especially the central one, as a fertile soil for business, it is impossible to explain.

      Pan Lem immediately remembered something. smile
      Hauvari, a former corporal of the Foreign Legion (after taking power, he proclaimed himself a marshal and a day later awarded himself with new orders through the Ministry of Differences), did not condemn the general desire to settle at the expense of others. On the contrary, he first came up with the idea of ​​nationalizing corruption.
      Hauvari, whom the local press called the Elder Brother of Eternity, spared no money for science, and he drew them from the taxes that foreign firms levied on the country. Parliament approved another tax, after which confiscations began, descriptions of property and notes of protest, mostly without consequences, and when a group of capitalists packed their bags, there were always others who wanted to try their luck in Gurunduvaya, where the reserves of minerals, especially chromium and nickel, were huge although some argued that the geological data was rigged at the direction of the authorities. Hauvari bought weapons on credit, including fighter jets and tanks, and sold them to Lamblia for cash.
      1. Undecim
        Undecim April 29 2021 19: 52
        +2
        And when I read the materials on the site, I am reminded of a critical mass of information. Maybe Lem meant a critical mass of stupidity? Then we are close to collapse.
  8. NF68
    NF68 April 29 2021 18: 44
    0
    Without a trace of Russia. Today, without him, nothing at all happens in the world. Even the sunrises and sunsets.
  9. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov April 29 2021 19: 23
    +3
    Listen: far, far, on Lake Chad
    An exquisite giraffe wanders ...
    This is, by the way, Nikolay Gumilyov.
    The country is one of the poorest in Africa, 400 thousand AIDS patients, 8 out of 10 are unemployed, the average life expectancy is 49 years, there is no water, no railways, no medicine from the word "in general", mortality at birth is off the charts. The Chinese pump oil for them there. The country has no funds for this.

    60 years of independence for Chad is a continuous chain of civil wars, military coups and their attempts. For the sake of justice, it should be noted that Idris Debi, the rebel who came to power as a result of the next coup, was indeed very loved in Chad. After the local special services revealed another Western conspiracy, he said: "They need our oil, our wealth, they want to take the country apart, sow discord." In the last elections, almost 80% of voters voted for him, the head of the military junta. Although, over the past 30 years, regular rebels tried to overthrow him 5 or 6 times. Now, his son rules there. Whether he will manage to stay in power is a big question. hi
  10. Viktor Sergeev
    Viktor Sergeev April 30 2021 07: 55
    +1
    Yes, there is a trace of Russia everywhere, even if there have never been Russians there.
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