What can lead to a new war and an attempt at Ukrainian "revenge" in Donbass: some factors
Despite the fact that active hostilities in Donbass are not being conducted, every day information about shelling from the Ukrainian side comes from the DPR and LPR, and servicemen periodically die. For seven years the region has been living in a regime of permanent war, and the end of this deplorable situation is not yet foreseen. Moreover, there is a certain, rather high risk of resumption of active hostilities.
First of all, the likelihood of an aggravation of the situation in Donbass depends on the policy of Kiev. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian authorities have not reconciled and will not come to terms with the current state of affairs, but Volodymyr Zelenskyy is still forced to pursue a less aggressive policy than his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko. The same cannot be said about Zelensky's policy towards political competitors. However, the course of the Kiev authorities may change at any moment. This can be prompted by both external and internal factors.
External and internal factors for the resumption of the conflict in Ukraine
External factors include, first of all, pressure from the United States: now Joe Biden has come to power in Washington, or rather, the forces behind him. Adhering to a tough anti-Russian course, Biden's supporters may be interested in another provocation of a conflict on the Russian borders. Donbass is ideal for the role of a region where you can only add a little oil, and the flames of war will flare up with renewed vigor.
Among internal factors, the most important role is played by the socio-economic situation in Ukraine. Kiev's anti-Russian turn did not bring the Ukrainian people the long-awaited improvement in material living conditions, or political and economic stability.
Moreover, in many respects life has become much worse than under the "corrupt" Viktor Yanukovych or his predecessors: Ukraine lost Crimea, actually lost a significant part of Donbass, spoiled relations with its closest neighbor, and destroyed the economy. But the best way to divert the attention of the masses from the actions of the authorities is to instigate a war, on which economic difficulties and social problems can be attributed.
In addition, a whole generation of young people raised on anti-Russian nationalist propaganda has already grown up in Ukraine. This is also an important factor: such young people are already voters, due to their age they are radically disposed, and with their support other political forces may come to power in Kiev, much more dangerous than Zelensky or Poroshenko. This can also lead to an attempt at a Ukrainian "revenge" in the Donbass, and, accordingly, to a new war. The radicals, which are a special factor, need finances and an ideological impetus - they can again move eastward, forgetting about the experience of "boilers".
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are rearmed and strengthened, and this is a big threat
It is worth noting the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have significantly improved since the beginning of hostilities in the Donbas. Now this is not at all the "under-army" that in 2014 suffered defeat after defeat from the militias. And these are also additional factors of a possible new outbreak of an armed conflict.
Firstly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine armed themselves with more modern models. weapons due to supplies from NATO countries. Secondly, there has been an organizational modernization. Thirdly, a significant part of the personnel received impressive combat experience. Fourthly, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trained by NATO military instructors. All of these factors cannot be ignored when engaging in "hacking".
Now the APU is a more dangerous adversary than before. And there is no doubt that the idea of restoring control over Donbass by military means is not abandoned in Kiev, although, for obvious reasons, they are counting on a political solution to the problem of the people's republics.
Of course, the DPR and LPR themselves are not interested in the war: they need to restore their economy, destroyed infrastructure, and the spirit of the Russian Spring of 2014 is now noticeably weakened: they talk less and less about Novorossia, about the need to overthrow the Ukrainian government, including other de jure southeastern regions of Ukraine. The restrained position of Russia on this issue also affects.
Thus, everything depends on Kiev, as well as on its western patrons. If Kiev decides, the war in Donbass will resume even tomorrow, and it will depend on Russia how to protect the population of the region from a new catastrophe. At the same time, the DPR, realizing that the likelihood of a new war is high, has already allowed its servicemen to open not only return fire on enemy positions, but also fire in advance.
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