How ingenious impromptu actions are born in the military sphere
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Very often we find ourselves in a situation where the foreign policy situation suddenly changes.
Future strategy for 70-100 years
And Russia faces a problem that no one seems to have thought about. Russian society, the media, political scientists and analysts are unanimously beginning to sing in chorus that we are losing something, are not ready for the current situation, or our military department did not expect such a development of the situation.
But, some time passes and this chorus starts a completely different song. Oh, what a turn of events. Oh, what an interesting and unexpected solution. Wow, how great is the leader who found him and accepted him. And this despite the fact that the majority know the already sore adage about a good impromptu, which was prepared at home.
After a series of articles about the situation in the Far East, I get a lot of questions about the situation in Donbass, about Moldova's new approach to Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria, about the deployment of Turkish units in Azerbaijan. I understand where the legs of such questions grow. Popular enough media outlets are actively lobbying for these topics in order to maintain interest in themselves and their journalists.
Let's try today to answer these questions from the point of view of strategic planning of political and military actions of our country in the long term. In order for readers to understand this phrase, let me remind you that after the October Revolution, the Bolsheviks discovered analytical materials of the General Staff of the army of the Russian Empire with a prospect of 70-100 years.
Materials that were not just projections, but well-developed strategic operations in the event of such an international situation. I understand that it looks fantastic. But this is a fact of our stories... this is how the General Staff worked in the Russian Empire.
About Donbass and the prospect of the start of active hostilities
Today, it is no secret to anyone that the Ukrainian army is preparing for a large-scale offensive on the LPNR according to the copy of the Azerbaijani army in Nagorno-Karabakh. Heavy artillery is brought up to the contact line almost daily, Tanks, drums Drones Turkish production, electronic warfare systems, etc. American Republicans, NATO and we know about this.
And the Ukrainians themselves do not hide their plans. Even President Zelensky is talking about some kind of plan B, the decision on the transition to the implementation of which he will take on December 9. It is not worth writing about the numerous speeches of Ukrainian officials, leading politicians and experts in various media. It is enough just to watch any Ukrainian TV channel.
The timid comments of some Ukrainian politicians that such an onset of death is similar do not at all fit into the general concept of Ukraine's exit from the political and economic crisis. Everyone understands that the time will soon come when the deceived people will start asking the president and the government for unfulfilled commitments and promises. And both Ukraine's dependence on the IMF and the IMF's decision to suspend tranches will catalyze protest sentiments.
In such a situation, Zelensky needs to start active hostilities in the Donbass. An external enemy and coffins in Ukrainian cities and villages will unite the nation better than any words. And the fight against political opponents can be waged not so much in words as with the use of repressive methods. Any political enemy can be declared an enemy of the people and hidden in the basements of the SBU.
The day before yesterday, Vladimir Zhirinovsky perfectly told how events will develop in the event of the outbreak of hostilities. As always, in a rather sharp form, he described the prospects for a future war. One can argue about the details, but (in essence) he is right. Ukraine is being pushed towards disintegration.
Moreover, it is desirable to make three completely different states from this country. Galicia, which will be on a par with Poland, the Baltic States and Moldova. Ukraine with a non-aligned status and territory in two or three regions. And Little Russia, as a zone of influence of Russia.
Moldova starts a campaign against Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria
Despite the fact that the newly elected President of Moldova Maia Sandu has not yet taken the oath of the president and has not become a full-fledged leader of the country, she has already clearly outlined a course towards confrontation with Russia, towards the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Transnistria.
How this should happen is also clear. Judging by the fact that Sandu will spend his first visits as the newly elected president to Bucharest and Kiev. This means that it is with the help of the blockade of Russian peacekeepers, the blocking of supply routes and the rotation of military personnel that Chisinau, Kiev and Bucharest hope to force Moscow to withdraw military personnel to the territory of Russia or Belarus.
And again Russia is silent. Only now the question of an unbearable debt for Moldova to Gazprom of $ 7,5 billion suddenly surfaced. And the gas price for this country at $ 173 per thousand cubic meters, against $ 235 in 2019, began to raise questions. It is quite possible that Russia will file a claim to terminate the contract. Moreover, for the duration of the trial, they need not be supplied with gas.
And there will be more and more such pitfalls. Until Sandu understands that the issue with the peacekeepers must be resolved primarily with the authorities of Transnistria and Moscow.
Turkey wanted too much to enter the Russian canopy
The fact that Turkey's ambitions have grown enormously lately, I think, is clear to everyone. As long as these ambitions did not directly concern Russia's zones of influence, Moscow tried to pursue a fairly peaceful policy towards Ankara. Other states also have interests that they are trying to implement. This is a normal practice in international relations. Conflicts arise when interests overlap.
At present, the Turks are stubbornly climbing into the zone of our interests. This applies not only to Karabakh, but also to the states of Central Asia, Crimea, Transcaucasia. Turkey just the day before yesterday entered into an agreement with Ukraine on the production of its attack drones in this country.
In fact, Ankara today is trying to carry out the same operation in Kiev that was carried out in Baku. Even Erdogan's goal is clear. Take "yours" when dividing Ukraine. This refers to the Crimea. The scenario that Zhirinovsky voiced was also calculated in Ankara. The lesson of Nagorno-Karabakh, as we see, did not go to the benefit of Turkish politicians.
Memories of the future
Now I will tell you a fantastic story that very few people know. A story about the further development of the political situation in the world.
So, Turkey, despite the fact that it is a member of NATO, behaves quite shamelessly even in relation to other members of this alliance. At the same time, for some reason, the fact that the British are keeping Erdogan's Faberge is deliberately hushed up. And it is this fact that is most dangerous for Russia.
Today we cannot squeeze the Turks out of Azerbaijan simply because Azerbaijan is an independent country and has the right to invite anyone to us. It must be admitted that the Turks are there for a long time.
Turkey's assistance in organizing the production of drones in Ukraine is already a fact. Arms supplies too. Hence (according to the experience of Karabakh), today there are Turkish operators in the Armed Forces of Ukraine who train Ukrainians. Consequently, at the beginning of active hostilities, the Turks will definitely participate in these battles, at least as instructors. That is, Turkey will become a party to the conflict.
Moldova, with the support of Romania and Ukraine, will tighten the blockade of Transnistria. At the same time, it is quite possible that after the outbreak of hostilities in the Donbass, hostilities will begin in Tiraspol. Here Romania and its army will become an assistant. The threat to Russian peacekeepers will increase many times over.
And not because the group will not be able to respond adequately to the blow. Just one projectile that arrives at the arsenal, guarded by the Russians, will cause an explosion with a force of up to 10 megatons! This will practically sweep away not only half of Moldova, but also part of Ukraine. Let me remind you that the distance to the Ukrainian border is only 7 kilometers.
What will Russia do in these conditions? It's understandable in Donbass. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will simply be destroyed not by ground forces, but by the strikes of the Aerospace Forces and missile weapons. A similar scenario awaits the Ukrainian units in the west. We will simply need a land and air corridor in Transnistria.
Turkey to neutralize Russian fleet will close the straits. And this will be the beginning of the end of the whole campaign. The Russian army will seize control of the straits and take Istanbul. Thus, we will fully establish control over the Black Sea.
Why will the Americans try not to interfere in the regional conflict? Namely, this will be announced officially. The answer lies in the existence of Israel. Those who are interested in the situation with nuclear development in this region understand that on the verge of creating a nuclear weapons there is not only Iran, but also Turkey. Which is equally dangerous for Israel.
The question arises about NATO. Will the alliance not intervene in the war? As previous events have shown, the Europeans do not want to fight Russia at all. And, it seems to me, the issue will be resolved at separate negotiations between Russia, Germany (which again refers us to Zhirinovsky's recent speech), France, the United States and Great Britain. Which will take place, perhaps even during the conduct of hostilities.
The essence of the negotiations will be the same - the next division of spheres of influence between the countries in this region. Simply put, the strong will divide the weak. Who will be a friend to whom until the next war.
The Old New Thing
I think those who really wanted to learn about strategic planning of global operations are now very upset. The author does not classify himself as science fiction writers or writers. An old plot was taken and transferred to modern times. What you read above is a real development of the General Staff of the Russian Empire and the General Staffs of European countries during the First World War. Moreover, this is a fully developed, agreed with the allies and adopted plan of military operations, which was to be carried out by Russia.
The plan remained in the archives of the military department simply because the 1917 revolution completely mixed the cards of the Entente and transferred Russia from the category of winners in the First World War to the category of the defeated ...
This plan was laid out in two secret treaties. A lot of material can be found about these agreements today. First of all, this is the agreement of March 18, 1915. According to this agreement, Russia received the Black Sea straits, Constantinople and the lands around the straits and the city for perpetual use. The British and French received land in the Asian part of the Ottoman Empire.
The second was the Sykes-Picot Treaty of May 16, 1916. In principle, this treaty confirmed the partition of the Ottoman Empire, already adopted in the first agreement, and extended to vast territories that have now become independent states. However, there is one caveat. When the Italians learned about the secret treaty, they demanded their share. And then the British were forced to give the Italians part of their piece of the pie.
Only those who are not going to live on do not make plans
It goes without saying that most of the strategic plans remain plans. Moreover, only a few initiates know about their existence. In particular, the existence of the treaties that I wrote about above became known only because the Bolsheviks, having seized power, published them. For what it was done I will not understand.
The scandal that these materials caused in world politics then speaks for itself. In many ways, it was this scandal that subsequently cost us decent money when establishing economic ties with European countries. And for a long time he brought our diplomacy out of the system of separate negotiations, with the exception of Germany.
It is clear that some plans still exist today. It is also obvious that not everything that presidents, foreign and defense ministers talk about behind closed doors becomes known even after a long time. We, ordinary people, have to learn about these plans only in the process of their implementation.
But the main thing is that there are strategic plans.
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