I argued that further hostilities would not change the situation. With huge losses, Baku will continue the offensive, and with comparable losses, Yerevan will gradually withdraw to the territory of Armenia. The only way to resolve the conflict and prevent it from turning into a long-term frozen confrontation was to negotiate peace between the parties and conclude a peace agreement.
The problem of Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be left unresolved for centuries
Karabakh should be transferred to Azerbaijan according to the decision of the UN Security Council. Any questions that may arise during the negotiations should be resolved through diplomacy. And then it happened. Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the mediation of Russia, signed a ceasefire agreement. Below I will give the full text of the agreement in order to avoid misinterpretations and various interpretations:
“We, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan I. G. Aliyev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia N. V. Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin, declared the following:
1. A complete ceasefire and all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are declared from 00:00 Moscow time on November 10, 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, stop at their positions.
2. The Agdam region and the territories held by the Armenian Party in the Gazakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan shall be returned to the Azerbaijan Party until November 20, 2020.
3. Along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor, a peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in the amount of 1960 troops with a rifle weapons, 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 units of automobile and special equipment.
4. The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is being deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The duration of the stay of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years with automatic extension for the next 5-year periods, if none of the Parties declares 6 months before the expiration of the period of intention to terminate the application of this provision.
5. In order to increase the effectiveness of control over the implementation of the agreements by the Parties to the conflict, a peacekeeping center is being deployed to control the ceasefire.
6. The Republic of Armenia will return the Kelbajar region to the Republic of Azerbaijan by November 15, 2020, and the Lachin region by December 1, 2020, leaving behind the Lachin corridor (5 km wide), which will ensure the connection of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and at the same time not will affect the city of Shusha. By agreement of the Parties, in the next three years, a plan for the construction of a new traffic route along the Lachin corridor will be determined, providing communication between Stepanakert and Armenia, with the subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to protect this route. The Republic of Azerbaijan guarantees the safety of traffic along the Lachin corridor of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions.
7. Internally displaced persons and refugees are returning to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas under the control of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
8. The exchange of prisoners of war and other detainees and bodies of the dead is carried out.
9. All economic and transport links in the region are unblocked. The Republic of Armenia provides transport links between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic in order to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions. Transport control is exercised by the bodies of the Border Service of the FSB of Russia.
By agreement of the Parties, construction of new transport communications linking the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan will be ensured. "
As you can see, the agreement is very clear and understandable. Moreover, the parties not only undertake obligations, but, judging by some points, they will raise the issue with the UN Security Council about the approval of this agreement at the highest level. This is probably the most important point in the negotiations. It is the resolution of the conflict, not a temporary truce.
Peacekeepers of Russia
To ensure the implementation of the agreement, as well as to create conditions for the fulfillment of the points on the exchange of prisoners and bodies of the dead, Russian peacekeepers are being brought into the region. Already, units of the 15th separate motorized rifle brigade of the Central Military District from Ulyanovsk have arrived there. Transportation is carried out by Russian aircraft VTA Il-76.
According to TASS reports, a total of 1960 peacekeepers and 470 pieces of equipment will be introduced, of which 380 are cars and 90 armored personnel carriers. At the moment, armored personnel carriers and other wheeled vehicles are being loaded onto aircraft.
A very important issue that worries many today is the issue of the Turkish units that are now located on the territory of the NGO. The answer to this question came only from President Aliyev. Russian peacekeepers will work together with Turkish units. However, there will be Russians directly on the contact line.
How long is the contract for? At the moment, the agreement has been concluded for five years. Both Baku and Yerevan consider such a period of stay of Russian troops in Nagorno-Karabakh sufficient. However, if necessary, if Armenia and Azerbaijan do not mind the presence of peacekeepers in the NPO, the agreement is automatically extended in five years.
It seems to me that this agreement is the main victory of both sides in this war. Thousands of lives have been saved, the Armenian part of Karabakh has been preserved, and the killing of civilians has been stopped.
The world should be forever
The Karabakh problem has not been solved for centuries. The conflict flared up and then faded. It must be solved today. It's too early to say that everything has already been decided. Surely today in both states there will be forces that will declare an unfair resolution of the conflict, the need to continue the struggle.
Alas, this cannot be avoided. Radicals, ready to fight to the last soldier and who often saw the front only on their home TV screens, were and will be. As will the shelling of our peacekeepers. There will be various gangs that will shit on everyone around. But it is necessary to go through this. It is really necessary to prove to the population of Nagorno-Karabakh that Azerbaijanis and Armenians can live side by side on this land.
Many questions will arise today about the downed Russian helicopter. It seems to me that the fact that Azerbaijan recognized that the helicopter was shot down by its servicemen by mistake and is ready to compensate for any demands of Russia should be accepted.
Yes, the lives of our pilots cannot be returned. No compensation can replace relatives and friends for the loss of a son, father, or husband. You can build a new helicopter, but, alas, people cannot be returned. But you cannot turn into savages, thirsty for blood, who asked for forgiveness and admitted his own guilt. It is difficult, very difficult to explain seemingly obvious things. Especially people who are in grief. But you have to explain.
On the whole, it seems to me that the foundation for the future world has been laid. Yes, there are long negotiations ahead, Yes, there will be many pitfalls. Yes, the parties will remember this war. But most importantly, the war is over today!