The fact that the world has lost stability, and now any most incredible events are possible, even in the most calm and predictable countries, is already understood by most of the inhabitants. The coronavirus has highlighted the fact that for most of the leading countries in world politics, "their shirt is closer to the body." Their own problems have completely discouraged these countries from solving the problems of small countries. Every man for himself.
Most economies are bursting at the seams. Old economic ties are being severed at an ever-increasing speed. Even international corporations today are beginning to demonstrate actions that are completely different from international organizations. The rollback of such corporations to the "parent countries" begins. Production in other countries is massively declining.
In such conditions, the risks have sharply increased in those countries whose political and economic system is in the process of restructuring - reorientation from one country to another. The war in Karabakh is one of the confirmations of my thought.
The leading countries cannot change anything in the situation today. In almost any of these countries, one can notice an intensification of protest moods caused by the consequences of the pandemic. The standard of living has dropped significantly. Even despite attempts by governments to smooth out the decline by increasing various social benefits and other assistance. Problems in the healthcare system were revealed. Myths about the power of the state in the sphere of taking care of the life and health of citizens are being destroyed.
Ukraine in a state of political weather vane
It is especially difficult to maintain stability in states that were in a kneeling state even before the pandemic. In particular, in Ukraine. This is due to the state of practically any sphere of life of Ukrainians. There is no stable political system, there is no economy that would somehow produce the products necessary for life, there is no finance for the development of the social sphere, and so on.
The political crisis that is observed today in Ukraine is caused precisely by the fact that the country today is completely dependent on external injections. The country will receive another loan - some, even purely external changes will be carried out. If it does not get it, it will crash If a couple of years ago, Ukrainian politicians were arguing about this, trying to somehow prove that there are some forces in the country that could prevent such a collapse, today the debate is only about the timing of the collapse.
Ukrainian politicians and analysts today are increasingly talking about a change in political power in the country. The latest confrontation between the president and the Constitutional Court raises concerns among all political forces in Ukraine. Will the president go for the usurpation of power or will he limit himself to changing the KSU to a pocket-sized controlled body? But in fact, there is no question about it. Today the question is about the preservation of a single state. And at the cost of the complete loss of independence of this state.
The understanding that the Ukrainian state has already become a colony has come to many. Another thing is that this is not a classic colony in the understanding that is taught at school. This is a new type of colony. It was not a backward third world country that fell into the clutches of the invaders, but a fairly economically developed, competitive country with an educated population and a developed educational and scientific sphere.
It seems to me that what is happening in Ukraine today fits perfectly into the following scheme of enslavement. First, to destroy the economic component of the state. This is practically done. Secondly, to destabilize the political system by transferring power to radical right-wing forces. Done too. Thirdly, to knock out the basis on the basis of which it is possible to revive the country over time. In Ukraine, such a basis could be the land.
And here is further perspective. Fourthly, to destroy the education system and replace it with a system similar, for example, to the American one - "I kind of studied." Moreover, the system of new Ukrainian education should ensure the impossibility of continuing education at the state expense, even at the level of secondary vocational education. If you want to study, pay. Fifth, the squeezing out of the country of scientific and simply well-trained professional personnel - which is already happening and will continue to happen in the future.
Well, the ultimate goal. Sad enough for everyone. Gradual replacement of the indigenous population of the country by visitors from third world countries. Creation of this classic colony. With a poorly educated and unskilled population, ready to work for a pittance. And by the term "gradual replacement" I do not mean long terms. 20-30 years is quite enough.
Aggravation of the problem of Donbass
In the scheme that I described above, the most important link is missing. Namely, the industrially developed and, accordingly, formed Donbass. This territory does not fit into the general scheme of the colonization of Ukraine. It will not work to replace a worker with a secondary technical education at a modern machine tool with programmed control with some Bedouin. The work of a worker today requires certain knowledge.
By the way, here is the answer to the questions that Ukrainian politicians often ask: "Do we need Donbass?", "What to do with the population of Donbass?", "Does Ukraine need economic ties between Donetsk enterprises and Russia?" and so on. In 2014, the radicals failed to destroy the industrial region by force. Today it is from the east of Ukraine that the "infection of education" is creeping.
Not many have noticed the trend, which is still being timidly discussed in Ukraine. Those who left the region in 2014-2015 are returning to the LDNR. Families come back. They even return to places where there is still a danger of the arrival of Ukrainian ammunition. People are leaving Ukraine by hook or by crook. The explanations given by the Ukrainian authorities to this process look childishly naive. People do not have enough subsidies and other payments!
In 2014-2015. one could still believe it. But not in 2020. After all, it was not pensioners who left Donbass, but the most economically active part of the population. People who were able to work and earn money, who had the appropriate education and work skills. They did not go to live on benefits. They went to live like everyone else. The past years have become a wonderful cold shower for such immigrants.
It was clear even then that after the defeat of the Ukrainian army and the signing of the Minsk Agreements, Ukraine would seriously consider the Yugoslav scenario. The beginning of active hostilities was planned in a year or two after Minsk. It was necessary to accumulate strength.
The Russian president broke off a beautiful plan. Broke off with his famous warning about the Ukrainian statehood in the event of the start of active databases. For many today, such a harsh statement still looks like a mystery. And there was no riddle and no. It's just that the president knows more than a common man in the street. Including about the plans of those whom he warned.
Today Ukraine is being torn apart by local elites. President Zelensky is well aware of this. Or the owners tell him about it. Kiev has nothing to resist the scattering of the country to its "own huts". The regions are not only politically stronger, but also have rather strong paramilitary structures of “combat veterans”. About weapons I will not write.
From here, it seems to me, Kiev has the only way out, which solves many problems not only of the Ukrainian pseudo-power, but also of the owners of the new colony. This is the beginning of active hostilities in the east. Yes, it's risky. Especially considering Putin's strange habit of keeping his promises. But there is no other way! Only an external enemy can force the Ukrainians to unite. Only an external enemy will make the Kiev authorities really authorities.
And another important detail pushing Zelensky to such a decision is Karabakh. More precisely, Russia's calm reaction to the events there. The hope is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will methodically squeeze the republicans out of the borders of the former Ukraine in the same way as the Azerbaijanis do, and the Russians will look at this process with boredom in their eyes. The classic Ukrainian mantra about the imminent collapse of Russia and its ineffective army in action.
I understand that now skepticism was born in some heads. Does the author really think that Ukrainians are idiots? No, the author does not consider Ukrainians to be idiots. But those who today make decisions on behalf of the Ukrainian people - yes. In the years that have passed since the Maidan, I have been convinced of this many times. Almost every day.
Why am I writing so confidently about the intensification of hostilities in Donbass even before the New Year holidays? And try to answer yourself to a simple question: "What has Ukraine done for at least some progress in the negotiation process in the TCG?" Give at least one example of a desire to solve something, except for the words "for all good and against all bad."
I personally get the impression that in the Trilateral Contact Group, the parties are engaged in completely different matters. The LDNR are deciding the questions of who, how and in what time frame must fulfill some obligations in accordance with the Minsk Agreements approved by the UN Security Council. Ukraine, on the other hand, is developing these very agreements, constantly offering one or another interpretation of the already written document.
It is enough to listen to Kuchma's last speech on the ways of implementing the Minsk agreements that Kiev is proposing to understand that no one is going to do anything. Zelensky is waiting for the moment when it will be possible to quickly solve the problem of Donbass with one blow. The moment when the Russians will have no time for Donbass. But time is playing against the Kiev authorities. There are two scenarios: power and the preservation of a single state for a while, or confusion and vacillation with a quite possible state. coup soon.
Critical days in Ukraine should not become critical for Donbass
Scorpios in the bank of Kiev politics are hungry. At the moment, they have spread to different sides of the political spectrum and are waiting for an attack. One must start. And then we will see the melee of all at all. They will bite mercilessly both their own and others.
It is especially important for us at such a time to “close the shutter” in Donbass. Close it so that the thought does not arise to throw Ukrainian problems into the republics. Simply because the citizens of Ukraine should solve Ukrainian problems. How they will achieve this is not our business. It is not even stupid to interfere in the internal affairs of another state without a request from this state - it is dangerous.
It is necessary to forget our eternal pity for the poor. Does it really matter what kind of dog bites you, domestic, kind and well-mannered or courtyard wicked? The result is the same. This means that it is necessary to prepare a stick in order to drive the dog away from its own leg in time. It is necessary to save the lives of the citizens of LDNR, and not to forget about the Russians living there. Save in every possible way. Not to help to be saved, but to save.
It is necessary that the Kiev authorities know about this ...