Like a textbook
Let us turn to the chronology of the events of the last few weeks. A real protest in the United States unfolded at the very end of May: people took to the streets en masse, observing at best the mask regime. You can believe or not believe in the two-week incubation period of coronavirus, but a steady increase in the number of infected began precisely on June 14 - 19532 new cases of infection. A day later, 19968 new patients, and June 16 - 23705. Before the protests began, the country was carefully entering the plateau phase, which, according to many experts, should have lasted no more than a month. And then decrease and gradual stabilization of the situation, as in Europe.
What are they facing in the USA now? Since June 22, more than 30 thousand new cases of infection are recorded daily. It was like that in April, at the beginning of the epidemic. And, it seems, growth is not going to stop: on June 23, the coronavirus overcame 35 daily infections. Talking about the second wave in this case is incorrect. In the country, the first wave of COVID-19 was not dealt with. Mass protests became the key reason that provoked a new surge. An increase in the incidence is observed immediately in 20 states, and five have recorded record levels. A similar consequence of festivities, looting and demolition of monuments was mentioned in one of the materials on Military Review a few weeks ago.
The acceleration of the spread of coronavirus can only be explained by the consequences of the protest “Black lives are important!” not allowed. The early exit of most US regions from quarantine should also be considered. In an effort to prevent economic collapse, the states have seriously weakened isolation rules. Even on the sensational video of the detention of the unfortunate Floyd on May 25, the streets of Minneapolis are busy, and even the police do not follow the simplest rules of protection: no masks, no gloves. And now in the United States more than 120 thousand deaths from COVID-19 and more than 2,3 million infected. Nevada introduces a mandatory mask regime due to a new exacerbation, and all Apple stores close in Texas, Florida, Arizona, North and South Carolina. The latter fact is a serious sign for other companies: a new wave of quarantine closure is expected in the near future. The independence of state governors in this case left the country sideways. Often, the loyalty of the electorate forces managers to take populist steps, abolishing self-isolation measures in advance. How can one not recall the words of President Putin describing the situation in the USA:
"Here, the president says: it is necessary to do so-and-so, and so on the local governors say: go away."
But what about Trump?
Donald Trump, one of the most odious presidents of the United States, continues to maintain his ambiguous reputation in coronavirus reality. In early summer, he assured his voters that the weather was warm and the ill-fated virus should retreat before the high temperatures and the sun ... As it turned out, the hopes for spontaneous disappearance did not materialize: the virus feels great in a country protesting in the warm sun. Now the president explains the steady growth in the number of new infections with a large number of tests for the virus. And here we cannot help but recall the situation with Russia. The Americans did not believe and do not believe in the low mortality from COVID-19 in our country, blaming all the unscrupulous statistics. (By the way, in Russia, unfortunately, mortality is already approaching 1,5%.) But in the United States they were so annoyed by the fact of our high survival rate that they even instituted a grant of 250 thousand dollars to expose a vicious healthcare system. At the same time, opponents from Russia had the thesis about a large number of tests (second place in the world - 18,4 million studies) and early detection of infection. Amazingly, President Trump took this fact into service and fights off his opponents! And as early as mid-June, the country's leader’s attitude toward testing on COVID-19 was rather negative: he proposed to consider it “overrated”, not the most effective and exposed the United States in an unfavorable light. The chronology of the development of Trump's logic is generally difficult to understand. Here is one of his last appeals to the nation via Twitter:
“Mortality from coronavirus has decreased significantly. The mortality rate is one of the lowest in the world. Our economy will catch up and not stop. “Coals” or flashes will be extinguished as necessary! ”
Such behavior of the US president can be explained very simply: ahead of the election, potential voters may not forgive the next global stress. They only threw off excess steam, destroying unrequited monuments, and here again a wave of incidence. Very inappropriately there was a statement by Robert Redfield, director of the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about a significant underestimation of the total number of cases in the country. According to his calculations, in the USA, not 2,3 million people are currently ill and sick, but ten times more. Of course, one cannot speak of such a large-scale deliberate understatement of the number of infected people. It’s just that the American medical system monitors only a small part of coronavirus infected people. The rest either carry the disease on their feet, or are generally asymptomatic, or have been ill much earlier than the pandemic. Redfield is based on the results of an American blood test for antibodies to COVID-19. Here the math is simple: for every confirmed case of coronavirus in ten cases, antibodies are fixed in the blood. Since June 20, Russia has also launched a program to study the collective immunity of citizens to COVID-19. Residents of 22 regions on a voluntary basis can test the blood for antibodies to infection, and here we can also expect unexpected results.
The decline in the interest of US residents in the presidency of Trump has been recorded for more than one month. According to The New York Times and Siena College, in June, Joe Biden confidently bypasses the current president, not only in individual states, but throughout the country. Trump has no choice but to “ignore” the new attack of the coronavirus, while maintaining a good face in a bad game. The expert community of physicians and epidemiologists in the United States accuse the president of this mistake. At the beginning of the epidemic, Trump accused anyone (WHO, China and even Russia) of rapidly spreading COVID-19, but not his own slowness. And now, it seems, the situation is developing according to the same scenario. In a week or two, the country will re-enter the peak of the incidence rate, and Trump will no longer be able to ignore the scale of the epidemic. The public will again face a pack of presidential accusations. Whom will Trump appoint this time? The most interesting thing is that none of the liberal-minded public in either the United States or Europe will dare to accuse anti-racist protests of fomenting a new surge in COVID-19. The expression of the people’s views, in spite of everything, is above all.
If we recall that the situation with coronavirus develops according to epidemiology textbooks, then we can predict the development of the situation in the United States. As a model for this, Russia, which has passed the peak of the epidemic somewhere on May 15-16, is perfect. After the peak of incidence, approximately a month of the stable phase of the plateau passed, and then a gradual decrease in new infections began. And Russia in this case is not the only example. Look at the graphs of the development of epidemics in European countries, the basic picture will be similar.
In the case of a new warming up of coronavirus stories in the United States, the question of peak time remains open. If Trump forgets about COVID-19 and engages in the election race, then the duration of the peak may stretch for a month and a half. And the subsequent phase of the plateau will take another 30-40 days. In this situation, the Americans will have to rake up the consequences of the coronavirus, protest and early discovery of the country until mid-autumn.
There is another possible reason for such a calm attitude of Trump to the epidemiological situation in the country. If, as Putin said, the governors send him away through one, then maybe they themselves can deal with COVID-19? ..