Military Review

What is happening in Idlib on the eve of the meeting between Putin and Erdogan: the alignment of forces


Today, March 5, a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan, will take place in Moscow. But in northern Syria, the situation remains extremely tense.

None of the warring parties currently has an absolute advantage over the enemy, which would allow it to establish control over the province of Idlib. This situation has developed thanks to the support of two strong states: the Syrian Arab army supports aviation Russian Aerospace Forces, radical formations - Turkey, which sent an impressive contingent to Syria.

Currently, the alignment of forces in the province of Idlib is as follows. The Syrian Arab army, the main participant in the hostilities of the legitimate government of Damascus, has concentrated an impressive group of troops in the province with tanks, artillery, anti-aircraft systems.

The main striking force of the SAA is the 25th Special Forces Division (Tiger Forces). It was her fighters who played a crucial role in regaining control of Serakib. Another important division is the 11th Panzer. From the air, CAA is covered by the Syrian Air Force and the Russian Air Force.

In addition to the regular government forces and the Russian Air Forces, Shiite militias, including the Lebanese Hezbollah and volunteer forces equipped with Shiites from Afghanistan and Pakistan, are fighting in Idlib on the side of Damascus. They also suffer heavy losses (Turkish media recently reported the deaths of dozens of Shiite fighters).

The armed formations of the militants are scattered. Basically, it is “Khayyat Tahrir al-Sham” (the former “Jebhat-en-Nusra * * - banned in the Russian Federation), the so-called Front of National Liberation * and the Syrian Free Army, as well as numerous formations, subordinating, in fact, only to their own to field commanders. The TNF and the SSA, combined into the SNA (Syrian National Army) are actually acting in the interests of Turkey and are supported by the Turkish armed forces.

Now Turkey has concentrated an impressive military group in northern Syria, the size of at least the size of a mechanized division. The total number of pro-Turkish units and Turkish troops in the provinces of Idlib and Latakia is at least 50 thousand people, including about 15 thousand of them - soldiers and officers of the Turkish regular army.

Thus, the number of pro-Turkish formations together with the combat units of the Turkish Armed Forces is almost equivalent to the number of government troops, but thousands of Turkish troops are concentrated in Turkey in Hatay province and can also cross the Syrian border at any time, thousands of soldiers are engaged in ensuring the operation while in Turkish territory.

But the number of militants and the Turkish military is not an obstacle for the Syrian government forces, which continue to successfully advance, albeit not at such a decisive pace.

According to HalabTodayTV, parts of the Syrian Arab army in the province of Idlib conduct shelling of militant positions north-east of the city of Idlib, as well as in the vicinity of Binnish. Under fire - the fortifications built by the militants of "Khayyat Tahrir al-Sham" (banned in the Russian Federation).

In the vicinity of the village of Tranba, Syrian government forces managed to repel the militants' attack. Another attack was reflected in the area of ​​Shanshara - an archaeological site, which is listed on the UNESCO World Heritage List. In both cases, the terrorists were forced to retreat.

But in the province of Aleppo, militants are trying to recoup by exposing the positions of the Syrian Arab army in the Kabtan al-Jabal region. It is reported that the militants could have destroyed the MLRS of the Syrian Arab army.

Clashes between militants and parts of the Syrian Arab army also developed in the area of ​​Tadif. Al-Fatyr settlement was also taken by government forces the night before.

While Recep Erdogan was going to meet with Vladimir Putin, the Turkish military arranged for the arrival of the next convoy to Syria. In the area of ​​the settlement of Batabu, a column of Turkish military equipment was spotted, which was obviously sent to support the militants.

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  1. Livonetc
    Livonetc 5 March 2020 08: 47
    So far there can be no talk of any suspension.
    Even if any major decisions are made today in Moscow, it will take time to implement them.
    And of course, as previously, the terrorists will not adhere to any instructions from Turkey itself.
    Continue to crap with varying degrees of intensity.
    And then a new fiery waltz tour.
    1. Varyag_0711
      Varyag_0711 5 March 2020 10: 02
      It seems to me that the sultan will go to Moscow empty. Although he has something to put pressure on the Kremlin, only a military victory is not enough, so today may very well be a very hot day for the SAA. Sorry for the guys, because of the ambitions of the mustachioed, innocent people die. However, they are dying on both sides, the Turks are not sickly either, and if the Sultan does not back down, which is unlikely, they will die further. The question is, will the Kremlin once again want to save the Sultan from the military conspiracy?
      1. Livonetc
        Livonetc 5 March 2020 10: 11
        The Kremlin’s wishes will depend on Erdogan’s negotiability.
        If he continues the dull line towards the revival of the Ottoman Empire in terms of the annexation of territories, then he does not shine anything good.
        If you agree to guarantees to contain the Kurds and some form of joint control, then it makes sense to support him.
        Although, most likely Erdogan is already a "lame duck".
        No more than 40% of the Turks support his party, and this was at the time about half a year ago.
        He expected a triumphant victory in Syria, which could raise his rating and the rating of the party.
        However, the adventure failed.
        Already in fact.
        1. 210ox
          210ox 5 March 2020 11: 13
          The Turk is incapable of negotiating. And "the Kremlin's wishes" entirely depend on the owners of the oil and gas sector of our economy.
      2. TermNachTer
        TermNachTer 5 March 2020 20: 06
        How can he push the Kremlin? The closure of the straits? Yes, the problem is serious, but solvable, but then he remains alone with all his problems, and the Turks have them higher than the roof. So far, he has two serious allies left - Russia and Israel. But Israel is such an ally that enemies are no longer needed. Do not forget that Erdogan has enough enemies even in Turkey, today's fight in their parliament and a recent attempt at a coup. So, Recep is on a very sharp blade and the consequences for him can be very bad, even fatal.
    2. Chaldon48
      Chaldon48 5 March 2020 11: 41
      Russia against Turkey will act by crowding out, avoiding direct confrontation. Direct collision will lead to unjustified economic losses
      1. Romario_Argo
        Romario_Argo 5 March 2020 18: 35
        Russia against Turkey will act by crowding out

        I agree. for such purposes we created the 5th DShK in Syria
        made a huge contribution to the creation and command of the corps
        Hero of Russia Lieutenant General Valery Asanov
        deceased in Deir ez-zor September 23, 2017
        Now the 5th corps consists of 7 brigades SPN ~ 15 fighters
        The command is carried out by Russian officers, ranging from platoon, company, battalion commanders and corps commanders
  2. bessmertniy
    bessmertniy 5 March 2020 08: 50
    Turkey's obvious focus on the annexation of part of Syrian territory. negative And "civilian care" is in the background. If Erdogan thought about him, he would not exacerbate the situation, but, on the contrary, would give the Syrian army the opportunity to finish off the militants with lower costs.
    1. Ilya-spb
      Ilya-spb 5 March 2020 08: 57
      It would be nice ... The world was finally made!

      Tired of reading every day about the war, about Idlib and Seraskib!
      1. DenZ
        DenZ 5 March 2020 09: 32
        Quote: Ilya-spb
        Tired of reading every day about the war, about Idlib and Seraskib!

        Read news on other topics and on other sites. what is the problem (or rather in whom)? Nobody forces you to read what you are tired of.
    2. codetalker
      codetalker 5 March 2020 12: 24
      Erdogan thinks of himself ... His situation is steadily worsening. After the flow of ethereal oil from Syria was blocked by the forces of the Russian Aerospace Forces, its political stability fell sharply. Tries to hold on. He doesn’t do it very much ... And no Turkey or Syria excites him on their own. Now such a situation has developed that most likely Turkey is not annexing something there, but Syria will regain Hatay.
    3. 1970mk
      1970mk 5 March 2020 18: 40
      For Turkey, this territory is for the Russian Federation Crimea? This is not true? And who is the indigenous population there?
  3. Amateur
    Amateur 5 March 2020 08: 53

    There is now a civil war. Therefore, each village has its own gang of self-defense forces. And they end up going over to the side of the strongest. Therefore, the VKS should mercilessly "wet all the nusras" in the toilet, and kill the Turks exclusively with apologies: "Guys, this is not us. This is Assad, a bad person.
    1. ximkim
      ximkim 5 March 2020 08: 58
      I think .. this meeting will not give anything. Yes, and Turkey makes it clear that it expects only concessions, after which it will have more appetite. The Syrians would have a little to capture Turkish soldiers and shoot on camera, which is not a soldier, but a militant of the banned terror organizations in the Russian Federation and the ATS.
      1. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 5 March 2020 10: 15
        Quote: ximkim
        I think .. this meeting will not give anything. Yes, and Turkey makes it clear that it expects only concessions, after which it will have more appetite. The Syrians would take a little captive of Turkish soldiers and shoot on camera, which is not a soldier, but an action movie of banned terror organizations in the Russian Federation and the ATS.
        They (Syrians) have already turned up a dozen Turkish b / posts in the rear and, as a matter of fact, sitting surrounded by CAA, are under siege, but no one is touching them. They sit and dry packs burst. There was information that the bearded Turks were dressing in their uniforms, which, in the event of death, were apparently issued as their dead soldiers, which would thereby justify striking at the SAA. Here are such werewolves on camera to photograph and reveal to the world.
        1. ximkim
          ximkim 5 March 2020 10: 17
          This is yes. The moment itself. It is necessary to show, but these press conferences and statements do not give any sense.
  4. snifer
    snifer 5 March 2020 08: 54
    Erdogan does not intend to retreat if on the eve of negotiations he introduces new troops into Syria. Most likely he will ask for neutrality of Russia in the negotiations, but he will not make concessions. IMHO of course
  5. Aleks2048
    Aleks2048 5 March 2020 08: 55
    Nothing can be decided in Moscow today. The belligerents still have a lot of both equipment and manpower. I think they will adopt today something like a memorandum "we are for world peace" ... And they will continue to do what they have been doing until today.
  6. The comment was deleted.
    1. Grandfather Crimea
      Grandfather Crimea 5 March 2020 09: 12
      And then suddenly someone shot it, as if by chance)))))) and again it started and it started .... No wonder that so many forces and means were pulled. It is necessary to finish off the barmaley and go to the border. Zadolbali already Syria, these nice opposition moderate. Pacify all in peace forever))))))
  7. Amateur
    Amateur 5 March 2020 08: 57

    There is now a civil war. Therefore, each village has its own gang of self-defense forces. And they end up going over to the side of the strongest. Therefore, the VKS should mercilessly "wet all the nusras" in the toilet, and kill the Turks exclusively with apologies: "Guys, this is not us. This is Assad, a bad person.
  8. Mytholog
    Mytholog 5 March 2020 09: 01
    support of two strong states

    Three. Don't underestimate Iran with its proxies. As soon as they became more active in Idlib, and plus Iran ceased to be a "dark horse" - the balance of power immediately swung in favor of the SAA.
  9. Finn
    Finn 5 March 2020 09: 06
    Some Turkish market. And so it is clear that Assad Putin will not give up, but suddenly, face to face, if, then he will agree. Traded to the last. For Putin’s machine, an all-inclusive eternal offer will probably run.
  10. Nick Russ
    Nick Russ 5 March 2020 09: 10
    The fact that Erdogan will hold talks in Moscow suggests that he needs them more than Putin. And despite all the rhetoric, it’s clear who is in charge. This is a neutral territory and a round table in Sochi. And then he goes to the king to bow, although he shows off.
    1. protoss
      protoss 5 March 2020 09: 54
      Erdogan has a different position in life, he aims at a result for which he can easily jump onto a plane and fly personally to negotiate, not counting it as shameful.
      Putin wants to seem, from here all his Siberian Cranes, amphoras, etc. He’s just a little old for VKontakte and Instagram, and all this narcissism reminds one of a woman’s selfie with a protruding butt.
      therefore, his press service always focuses on the fact that the negotiations took place on the initiative of the other side, saying that we don’t really need it, but we should condescend to a conversation with all of Russia.
  11. HAM
    HAM 5 March 2020 09: 29
    In the comments, colleagues do not mention for some reason, another side of the Americans ... I don’t know what they caught Erdogan on, but the sharp changes in the rhetoric of the Sultan: from accusing the Yanks of all sins, to requests for help, they say that Erdogan is with them sits firmly on the hook ...
    But speaking into your eyes is one and the same time leading your game, the Turks are big specialists in this .. so they will sign something ........ and that's it ....
  12. rocket757
    rocket757 5 March 2020 09: 29
    While cardinal, political changes, ANYWHERE, will not happen in Turkey itself, nothing will fundamentally change!
    And there, in any direction it may fall, who knows how it will go.
  13. Vladimir61
    Vladimir61 5 March 2020 09: 29
    Turkish President’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalyn met Wednesday with U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations Kelly Kraft and U.S. Special Envoy for Syria James Jeffrey. .A representative of Tayyip Erdogan, at a meeting with US emissaries, stated that "Operation [Turkish Armed Forces" Spring Shield "] is aimed at a peaceful and political settlement in Syrian Idlib."
    Turkey, also considers that the April parliamentary elections in Syria will not have legal force, Ankara will not recognize them, the spokesman for the Turkish president Ibrahim Kalyn said on Wednesday, Trend reports citing RIA Novosti.

    Russia has denied allegations against its armed forces in a report by the UN independent commission to investigate human rights violations in Syria. “We strongly reject such allegations,” said Peskov, commenting on allegations of allegedly indiscriminate actions by the Russian Aerospace Forces.

    NATO condemns the bombing by government forces in Syria. This was announced on Wednesday in Zagreb following talks with Croatian Prime Minister Andrei Plenkovich, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance Jens Stoltenberg.

    “We condemn the indiscriminate bombing by the Assad regime and Russia in Syria,” he said. Stoltenberg also claimed that such actions led to "increased refugee movement towards Turkey."

    That's the whole layout! Everyone has their own position and GDP, this round only needs to be won otherwise the Syrians and the forces supporting them will not understand us.
    1. asv363
      asv363 5 March 2020 09: 49
      So I’m thinking that today we need to act tough, to bomb along the M4 and deep into the columns. If in southern Idlib, below the road there are still some fortified areas, then this is not a problem, then you can clean it up. The Sochi agreements also meant the release of the M4 and M5 routes from terrorists.
  14. PavelM
    PavelM 5 March 2020 09: 35
    Quote: Ilya-spb
    It would be nice ... The world was finally made!
    Tired of reading every day about the war, about Idlib and Seraskib!

    "The deeper your head is in the sand, the more defenseless your ass!" (C)
  15. Galleon
    Galleon 5 March 2020 09: 39
    The closer the meeting, the more interesting not only the situation, but also the dynamics of what is happening. Judging by the article, the Turks also understand this and introduce a new column of their forces as adding weight in future negotiations. Will the Turks lose weight today? If not, if we don’t hear about Turkish losses in the next XNUMX hours, the Sultan can expect to get what he wants.
    1. cniza
      cniza 5 March 2020 11: 05
      Quote: Galleon
      if we don’t hear about the Turkish losses in the next day, the Sultan can expect to get what he wants.

      We may not hear, most importantly, what would the Sultan know ... yes
      1. Galleon
        Galleon 5 March 2020 11: 30
        Quote: cniza
        We may not hear, most importantly, what would the Sultan know ... yes

        Yes, already tired of "saving the face" of all partners in the negotiations. Let them suffer information defeat too. And that has become the custom since the time of the Cuban missile crisis: secret agreements reflect our interests, and publicly rivals trumpet their unconditional victory.
        1. cniza
          cniza 5 March 2020 11: 39
          Unfortunately, nothing has changed politicians will smooth out each other's "wrinkles" ...
  16. Goldmitro
    Goldmitro 5 March 2020 09: 42
    Quote: bessmertniy
    Turkey's obvious focus on the annexation of part of Syrian territory.

    The possessed sultan has already presented so many ultimatums that even if he wanted to, he could not crawl away without a catastrophic loss of face! Plus, he feels the support of the West and, above all, a pin .... in, which again saw the light in their original idea knock down Assad, because of which all this porridge in Syria was brewed! Plus, Iran is increasingly getting into the conflict! And Russia is also forced to expand its participation and it turns out to be coveted for a pin ... as a result - long-running bloody conflict, chaos[B] in which their opponents are directly involved, and the pin ... sy, as always, behind the scenes!
  17. Aleksandr_12
    Aleksandr_12 5 March 2020 10: 05

    Erdogan rushes about .. Now to Macron and Merkel, then to NATO, then to the USA., Everywhere of course they promised support, but will they fulfill their promise -? The West has a favorite pastime - kidalovo. And Erdogan knows this .. And he knows that they can not stand him in the West for his uncontrollability and blackmailing tricks. For example, with immigrants .. And the conversation with Putin will begin with the implementation of the Sochi agreement. And on it is empty - there is nothing to say .. What can he do. Engage in eastern bargaining and bargain until the morning? In this case, the main argument will be the position of him and the Syrian troops. And there are no tangible successes. Serakib. resisted. Yes, there is also the Russian military police .. In general, the results of the negotiations are very dependent now, these hours on the military !!!
  18. megadeth
    megadeth 5 March 2020 10: 50
    The meeting between Putin and Erdogan, without Assad and the "opposition", shows between whom the conflict is and who rules whom ....