LDNR is no longer Ukraine, not Russia yet: the Transdniestria 2.0 option

It is very likely that the future fate of Donbass lies on the same plane as the future of a number of other “unrecognized” or “semi-recognized” state entities, in sufficient numbers available in the modern world. In any case, this is precisely the conclusion that arises in connection with the incessantly belligerent statements of Kiev regarding the "reintegration", and even the "de-occupation" of this region, the lack of a clear and consistent position of Moscow on this issue, and the hopelessness of the Minsk Process that has long stalled. At the same time, the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic is perhaps the closest precedent, by analogy with which discussions about the prospects of the rebellious Ukrainian East, long ceased to be Ukraine, are possible.

The obvious is to be recognized - the status of the “unrecognized republics" and the zone of the "frozen conflict" is the best that residents of the DPR and LPR can really count on today. All other options are either completely unrealistic or have much worse prospects. However, for objectivity, let's try to consider them. So:

The return of Donbass "in the bosom of the nenki of Ukraine"?

This is possible only as a result of Kiev, with the support of its western masters and the complete non-interference of Moscow, with a large-scale punitive operation with the seizure of the entire territory controlled by the Republics today. What will happen then, I think there is no need to explain. Massive “sweeps” under the nose of “controllers” from the OSCE and similar hypocritical offices, which will instantly lose both sight and hearing. All other options for "reunion" - this, excuse me, is complete nonsense. Well, or, correctly speaking, completely groundless and having nothing to do with fantasy, which, in between solving specific and pressing problems, members of various “contact groups” in Minsk or heads of state of the “Norman Four” may be exposed to at the next summit.

How do you really imagine the delegates from Donetsk and Lugansk sitting in the panopticon that the Ukrainian parliament has turned into? What fate do you see of the “Ukrainian-patriots” who, be trustworthy, will immediately appear in the Donbass in the event of its “reintegration”? What awaits those who yesterday tried to kneel the inhabitants of this land with weapons in the hands, and tomorrow will come there to demolish the “wrong” monuments and teach “mov”? If there are things and phenomena in this world that are incompatible in principle, in essence, then these are today's Donbass and Ukraine. And no "decentralization" and "broad autonomy" will help here - the point is not in them.

Joining the Donbass to Russia? It is tempting, however, at the present time (starting from the position of Moscow itself) is unrealistic. There is not the slightest doubt that if a corresponding referendum or plebiscite were announced tomorrow in any other form, observers could be invited from all over the world. The vast majority of the region’s inhabitants are not only ready to become Russian citizens tomorrow, but regret that they did not become them the day before yesterday.

But while LDNR is no longer Ukraine, but also not Russia ...

Unfortunately, the totality of life circumstances and realities clearly suggests that becoming the Transnistria 2.0 for Donbass is the only affordable and acceptable option for today. At least they haven’t been shooting there for a long time. Both regions have a lot in common - their inhabitants did not want to be driven with blood “love” to values ​​alien to them, at gunpoint they were taught what language to speak, in which churches to pray and which heroes to honor. Pridnestrovians, like Republicans of Donbass, were not afraid to take up arms and shed blood for their freedom. They aspired in exactly the same way and are striving for reunification with Russia ... Well, one can only hope that someday the time will come for translating these aspirations into reality. In the meantime, you need to give people the chance to just live - without war.

Comments

[New Year day]

... the status of "unrecognized republics" and the zone of "frozen conflict" is the best that residents of the DPR and LPR can really count on today. All other options are either completely unrealistic or have much worse prospects.

From the point of view of high politics, this is so, but how do people live in this territory?

[Vladimir_2U]

Well, for a start, Transnistria does not have a common border with Russia! LDNR in this regard is much simpler and easier!

[210ox]

There is a common border. Is there any place to work? And this is the well-being of people. We have a guy working with ZuGres, and his whole family is here. There will be no work, people just leave. And Donbass is an industrial region. True in the past. How do people live?

[Vladimir_2U]

Quote: 210ox

Is there any place to work?

And what about this in Transnistria? I don’t want to argue about this in principle, I’ll just remind you that Transnistria is surrounded by at least the unfriendly Moldova and Ukraine.

[72jora72]

And what about this in Transnistria? I don’t want to argue about this in principle, I’ll just remind you that Transnistria is surrounded by at least unfriendly Moldova

At the very least, Moldova does not shell Transnistria, and they did not break economic ties between themselves.

[Olgovich]

Quote: 72jora72

At the very least, Moldova does not shell Transnistria, and they did not break economic ties between themselves.

Something was not torn, but something was torn. Problems with the banks of Transnistria, make enterprises in Moldova register, prohibit Transnistrian autonomies, documents, etc.

especially hard in recent years, after the Bandera came to power in Ukraine ....

[g1v2]

Well, for us, just Donbass as a source for replenishing the population is useful. Only 4 guys from Donbass are working with me in St. Petersburg, who left, received citizenship and moved their families. There are many places in the Russian Federation where workers are needed. The surplus population will scatter across the country. Mostly young people. It’s not in the dumps for them to poke around? Republican universities receive Russian accreditation. Their diplomas are recognized in the Russian Federation. The same graduates of Donetsk honey may well get a job in most regions of the Russian Federation under the "village doctor" program. Help to settle down. In many cities, there is also a demand for doctors.

[Tiksi-3]

Quote: Vladimir_2U

Well, for starters

to start, you need not 2 education, but one !! like the People's Republic of Donbass !!

[Vladimir_2U]

This question is for the leadership of the republics, otherwise I see some similarities with the "Age of the Dead" Bobrov. Fortunately, not in everything.

[asv363]

To include the DPR and LPR in the composition of Russia as the regions. If Ukraine begins to object - to send troops, establish a buffer demilitarized zone around areas of 30-70 km.
Integration by laws and economically with the Russian Federation is ongoing now - it is planned to bring salaries and pensions to the level of the Rostov region in the People’s Republics by 2022, for which 3 indexations are planned.

[Siberia 75]

Quote: Silvestr

but how do people live in this territory?

Communicating on the Internet with the inhabitants of LDNR, the idea that they will not be Ukrainians sounds more clearly. Even if they are crammed into this nonsense by force.

[nikon7717]

Here, the article talks about the new Transnistria. But if all these small unrecognized republics make a feint with their ears. Let them be at a distance, without common borders, but they would unite together. To collect in one association LDNR, Transnistria, Abkhazia, all regions, districts, autonomies are small, which have split off from the former republics of the USSR. Together, they will be easier to swing on the world stage. Recognition to achieve. It may be interesting.

[asv363]

There is, I agree. No one associates himself or his future with Ukraine. Excluding the growth of shelling in recent weeks. A sufficiently indicative video (the truth is not about Ukraine, but about Zelensky):

[sagitch]

Ukraine does not join NATO as long as it has internal conflicts and territorial claims. But they are and will be. While this is beneficial to Russia.

[Same lech]

Ukraine does not join NATO as long as it has internal conflicts and territorial claims.

If the United States needs to, Ukraine will quickly be taken into NATO even despite territorial problems ... since this was done with the Baltic countries.

[Vladimir_2U]

Quote: sagitch

Ukraine does not join NATO until it has internal conflicts and territorial claims

Such an idea, perhaps seditious, but what prevents Russia from presenting these countries territorial claims to NATO aspirants?

[Same lech]

and what prevents Russia from presenting these countries territorial claims to NATO aspirants?

They will appear if any NATO country decides to attack Russia.

[Vladimir_2U]

I guess I incomprehensibly wrote Russia must put forward territorial claims country-to the candidate in NATO (by itself, in the presence of common borders, or even without them).

[210ox]

She will be there stopudovo. It's a question of time. Rules are rewritten. Example-Turkey and Greece.

[rocket757]

LDNR is no longer Ukraine, not Russia yet: the Transdniestria 2.0 option

Theoretically, theoretically ... everything is easier there, no one can lay around! And practically .....

[Same lech]

Behind LDNR Russia ... with such a roof you can not be afraid of anything.

[rocket757]

It’s impossible to live in peace, there people who want to can decide their own destiny and the majority sees it with Russia.
So to have a powerful ally behind your back, at the moment, is not enough, until the ally is determined and does not "crack" everyone who does not agree with him!
In my opinion, an imperfection, little fish!

[Same lech]

Of course, problems in LDNR are higher than the roof ... but LDNR residents themselves must solve them naturally with our help ... sitting and waiting for the manna from heaven from Russia is the wrong position ... it takes time to realize this simple postulate.

[210ox]

Hmm. What about "behind the back of the USSR?" Earlier. Came marked, and that's it. There is no more social camp behind the back of the USSR. This also applies to Russia. We are not immune from the appearance of a traitor.

[Same lech]

We are not safe from the appearance of a traitor.

Well, it seems that for this case the Security Council of Russia is being created from respected people ... a kind of Politburo of the CPSU Central Committee ... with a system of costs and balances.
Although who knows whether it will help.

[New Year day]

Quote: The same LYOKHA

Well, it seems that for this case the Security Council of Russia is being created from respected people smile ... a kind of Politburo of the CPSU Central Committee ...

Do you want to remember how the Politburo decided with the USSR?
Since everything in the new "Politburo" is from the USSR, their recipes may be old
The old horse does not spoil the furrow, but does not plow deeply either

[Chingachguk]

Hmm, we also chose Russia at one time ..... But more than 25 years have passed, and until today, Transnistria has not been recognized by anyone, not even Russia ...... And I tell you, live without recognized documents, currency is not very cool. Generations have already grown in the artificially created reservation, and Russia does not itch ..... And then - Oh! What happened? Why did they start to jump? And who is to blame?

[Karaul14]

Vague formulations "hope, wait, better times", there is no critical thinking at all. The LDNR could annex the Crimea, and they held their referendum there and the time in 2014 was ideal - when the power of Yanukovych was overthrown, and the new power has not yet been elected. Now Russia already recognizes the legitimate authority of Ukraine and negotiations are underway on how to transfer territories back.
The main thing is that the monument to Lenin was left ... in capitalist Donetsk ....

[ZaharoFF]

It is necessary to decide, of course, with one and with the second and with the others too. It won't be better, so why wait? The main thing, of course, is not to kill people, the rest, I’m sure, will be allowed.

[vladimirvn]

The hard-working people there, unlike our "Caucasian allies", will feed themselves. The bad news is that coal prices have fallen and will continue to fall. And so, we will help as much as we can.

[Chilean Abalon]

How do you really imagine the delegates from Donetsk and Lugansk sitting in the panopticon that the Ukrainian parliament has turned into?

Normally they will feel there. Together with the nationalists they will be kicking

[lopvlad]

..... the totality of life circumstances and realities clearly suggests that becoming the "Transnistria 2.0" for the Donbass is the only affordable and acceptable option for today

To make such fabrications means to completely not understand that trying on the skin of Transnistria to conflict in the Donbass is tantamount to pulling an owl on a globe.
In addition to the fact that both conflicts are civil wars, there is no coincidence.

Transnistria - has no land borders with Russia and not a meter of access to the sea, the armed conflict lasted less than six months, the main force that stopped the conflict was the Russian army, parts of which were located on the territory of the republic then are still located. The population is only 469 thousand people.

The actual possibilities of Russia with all the will regarding Transnistria; to keep the conflict frozen is the maximum. We do not consider the idea of ​​chilling ideas like attacking and capturing all of Ukraine in order to break through and annex 469 thousand people to Russia.

Donbass has a land and sea border with Russia, the armed conflict lasts almost 6 years, the main military force repelling Ukraine is the local armed forces, in the republics there are no parts of Russian peacekeepers or other parts of the Russian army. The population even after 6 years of war in the LPR 3 million 770 thousand people.

The actual possibilities of Russia with all the will regarding LDNR; taking into account the common land and sea borders, these possibilities are simply unlimited, everything rests only on the political will of the Russian authorities.


Now consider the real expectations from the population of Russia of these unrecognized state entities.

Transnistria; as if its population did not want to join Russia, but any sane Transnistrian
understands that while Transnistria does not have common borders with Russia, this is unrealistic. And that Russia has made a maximum with respect to Transnistria, both militarily and politically.

LDNR; the population wants and sees itself exclusively as part of Russia and believes that Moscow lacks only political will since the states have an extensive land border with Russia. The population of the republics believes that Russia is not doing enough politically, economically and even militarily for the republics.
Naturally, they don’t talk about it openly, but there is hidden discontent for living for 6 years in uncertainty is one thing and living in uncertainty for 6 years under bullets is another. Moreover, the Ukrainian government, unlike the Moldovan government, will never freeze the conflict, than said and demonstrated by all possible methods.

[AleBors]

In Transnistria are our peacekeepers. In the Donbass they are not. And they are unlikely to be.