Military Review

2: 0 in favor of the dollar. Having abandoned the "green", they forgot about the "wooden"

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2: 0 in favor of the dollar. Having abandoned the "green", they forgot about the "wooden"

Balancing on the brink



It seems that the Russian monetary authorities, and this has long been not only the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, but also fiscal services, and Financial Monitoring, and a number of seemingly extraneous structures from the security sphere, are going to have difficult times. After all, for a long time they will be forced to balance between the thirst for maximum export profits and the need to get rid of dollar dependence.

And all because the course on dedollarization is accepted and nobody will cancel it. However, so far almost everything that is being done on this part is somehow not very successful. For example, despite the adjustment of the structure of the National Security Fund, dollars and dollar assets in reserves, despite all public declarations, there are still more than any other means of payment, from currencies to gold.

However, reserves, even if they are in securities with some kind of income, can be considered assets only in form. A simple currency is a dead load, which is constantly losing value due to inflation. At the same time, only outcasts like Iran and Turkey, or Russia's partners in the EAEU, who we continue to stuff with rubles even at a loss, actually switch to settlements in their own currencies. And this is 1: 0 in favor of the dollar. At least in Russia.

Nevertheless, it is Russia that is currently the real leader in the campaign to limit the privileges of the dollar in the global financial system that has already covered many countries. But they really are exorbitant, as our leaders, as well as representatives of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance noted. In addition, the United States by its own actions continues to constantly fuel the idea of ​​de-dollarization of the global economy.

The course to reduce dependence on the dollar in Russia is regularly criticized, and precisely because the dollar is strengthening against most other currencies. On this we are really forced to suffer certain losses, but they, in addition to the inevitable, are still somewhat virtual in nature. And in order to avoid them, one would have to make such large-scale and quick changes that it could have cost much more.


Our financial authorities are often blamed for the fact that they are more likely to find strong arguments in various kinds of disputes with the United States on topical issues. Not only is the addressee here actually higher than the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, in fact, this kind of criticism deserves just the lack of consistency in the implementation of the chosen course on de-dollarization.

There is another somewhat strange argument in the mouths of our liberals from the economy: supposedly in reality we are talking only about the desire to bring an ideological base for strengthening currency control. But in fact, no gain has been observed in Russia since the fall of 1998, just the opposite.

As a result of default, the government of Primakov and Maslyukov immediately tightened the currency nuts. And then they were only weakened. It must be said that the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, whoever has headed them since then, were simply surprisingly consistent just in terms of weakening currency control, which has been written more than once in Military Review (“Ruble or dollar: which currency will collapse first?”)

Process continues


Yes, the process continues, stopping solely due to crises and sanctions. But such good reasons could well be used as the basis for returning to the healthy practice of extremely tight currency regulation. Honestly, without it, dedollarization is nothing more than a declaration.

Yes, the number of dollars in Russian reserves is declining. However, not so much that at least the euro there is more than the dollars. Yes, we trade with many not in dollars, saving on commissions, but the dollar is neither cold nor hot from this. However, if the “green” from the Russian demarches was even a little worse, we from Washington would have to say “thank you” in general.


This is 2: 0 in favor of the dollar. After all, the states overpriced their own currency across their throats. And in foreign trade it is a hindrance, and the public debt makes it more expensive. Nevertheless, we repeat, the process continues. By and large, operating with the currency in Russia is becoming easier and easier. And this does not apply to those who need to throw a hundred or two bucks in the exchanger, but the players are much larger.

Just the other day, a new bill was submitted to the legislative structures that directly affects the sphere of repatriation or return of foreign exchange earnings. It proposes to put into practice the old idea of ​​not punishing exporters for the fact of non-return at all.

It is planned that such a practice will only serve as something like evidence or grounds for a more thorough examination of other violations of currency legislation. For some reason, the authors have no doubt that the bill will go through the lower house of parliament. Difficulties may arise at the top, but only because the influence of the oil and gas and trade lobbies is not so strong there.

In fact, the point is that formal dedollarization can quite peacefully coexist with pumping up the economy with foreign currency. The project, one might say, is doomed to success, since a somewhat strange idea is being promoted under the good pretext that Russian exporters can quickly need dollars to carry out foreign exchange foreign currency transactions.

Our home-grown liberals from the economy today earnestly criticize the government for preferring the euro and the yuan to the dollar, but it can be praised for the fact that it can be left without foreign exchange earnings.

Always push, push everywhere


Meanwhile, the dollar, which has only become stronger due to trade wars, continues to put pressure on global economic growth. Washington is already loudly repeating not only the need to support active efforts aimed at weakening the dollar, but also that the Federal Reserve System and President Donald Trump’s administration should intervene. Amid the strengthening of the dollar over the past ten years, at 22% in real terms, this approach can be understood.

What, then, can be expected from Donald Trump, which seems to be completely unpredictable? In this regard, one cannot fail to quote one of the most consistent critics of world dollarization, Steen Jacobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank. In his opinion, the American administration “in case of its intervention in the situation with the dollar may enact the 1934 Act on the gold and foreign exchange reserves, giving the White House broad powers to intervene in regulation, for example, by selling dollars to buy foreign currency. The Fed may also print "new dollars."


Saxo Bank Steen Jacobsen: Monetary Policy Fails

Since 1995, the United States government has intervened only three times. But “2019 year, most likely, will be remembered as the beginning of the end of the largest in stories monetary experiment, the year the global recession began, despite the lowest nominal and real interest rates in history. Monetary policy has reached the end of a very long journey and proved to be untenable. ” This is also a quote from Steen Jacobsen.

Already, few today dispute the fact that following the dogmas of monetary policy turned out to be a dead end. The world economy is left with almost the only way to break the deadlock: to lower the price of global money itself, which by more than 50 percent represents the same American dollar.

Not only Russian or Chinese, but also many Western experts are alarmed that structural strengthening of other currencies is necessary for the structural weakening of the dollar. However, this has been hindered by the existing shortage of dollar liquidity. It’s a paradox, but it happens in a world literally flooded with “green” pieces of paper.


“We conduct operations in a world based on the dollar, this is a key driver of the global economy and financial markets. Starting from 2014 of the year, there is a structural problem of the dollar deficit in the world as a result of the Fed’s policy of "quantitative tightening" and lower oil prices, which led to a decrease in the number of petrodollars in circulation, "the head of the macroeconomic analysis department of the same Saxo notes with some surprise and justifiable alarm. Bank Christopher Dembic.

The United States is rapidly growing difficulties with funding the current account deficit. It turns out that Donald Trump needs dollars to secure his re-election in the 2020 year, but all those who owe the United States and to whom the Americans themselves owe more need it. Russia is by no means on this list, although it now trades mainly in euros. And this only indicates that with dedollarization it is quite possible to be more active. Ignoring the growing green.
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  1. Svarog
    Svarog 19 November 2019 15: 11
    +5
    This is already 2-0 in favor of the dollar.

    3: 0 in favor of the dollar
    https://news.mail.ru/economics/39535226/ У нас опять начали в гос.бумаги США вкладываться
    1. Edik
      Edik 19 November 2019 15: 19
      +2
      Quote: Svarog
      3: 0 in favor of the dollar
      https://news.mail.ru/economics/39535226/ У нас опять начали в гос.бумаги США вкладываться

      Eloquent, please remind us where in the world we are in "investing"? And the authors somehow missed Brix! This is about:
      At the same time, only outcasts like Iran and Turkey, or Russia's partners in the EAEU, actually switch to settlements in their own currencies
      1. Svarog
        Svarog 19 November 2019 15: 33
        +2
        Quote: Edik
        Eloquent, please remind us where in the world we are in "investing"?

        My dear, everything is proportional .. and in what place are we in terms of GDP in the world? on the 12th .. https://basetop.ru/rejting-ekonomik-mira-2019-tablitsa-vvp-stran-mira/
        Well, on deposits in public debt in 17th place ..
        https://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/71918
        1. Edik
          Edik 19 November 2019 15: 38
          +3
          Quote: Svarog
          https://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/71918

          Do not distort the dearest! This is for 2016 negative
      2. Tiksi-3
        Tiksi-3 19 November 2019 15: 57
        -3
        Quote: Edik
        Please remind us where in the world we are in "investing"?

        belay I thought that it was not the place that determined it, but the amount of financial resources based on the country's budget
  2. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 19 November 2019 15: 11
    +31
    Honestly, I did not understand what the article was about! It seems like he listened to the late Chernomyrdin. A lot of terms, a lot of verbiage and an incomprehensible ending. What will calm the heart, predictors?! ...
    1. Loess
      Loess 19 November 2019 15: 18
      +16
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      Honestly, I did not understand what the article was about!

      I just feel better, I thought it was just me so dull)
      1. bk316
        bk316 19 November 2019 15: 31
        +5
        , I did not understand what the article was about!

        I’ll read a second now laughing
        1. bk316
          bk316 19 November 2019 15: 40
          +7
          I’ll read a second I’ll translate laughing

          I won’t translate, because I didn’t understand. belay
          No, each paragraph is clear about what, I did not understand the general meaning of the article.
          It looks like a Chukchi song on the train: what I see about that I sing.
          Maybe ask the author to briefly formulate?
          1. Prisoner
            Prisoner 19 November 2019 16: 50
            +4
            The Chukchi at least sings what he sees. And then a song about what seemed to be. hi
    2. Sergey39
      Sergey39 19 November 2019 15: 52
      +2
      In the last lines: "with de-dollarization it is quite possible to be more active"
    3. Horst78
      Horst78 19 November 2019 16: 21
      +7
      A lot of terms, a lot of verbiage and an incomprehensible ending.
      That's it. For the last 3-4 years, I generally look at various "doctors", "professors" and "experts" with caution. If the "doctors" and "professors" even speak their own language, then it is not at all clear what the different self-appointed "experts" from some "institutes" are saying.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 19 November 2019 17: 25
        +4
        A little more, a little, a little and everything will happen! Hey author, what will happen ???
        1. Berber
          Berber 20 November 2019 08: 59
          +2
          To paraphrase - "Waiting for a crisis is worse than the crisis itself." Therefore, the Americans themselves are already rushing, because it's time. "Let the storm break out stronger" ...
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 20 November 2019 09: 13
            +1
            Quote: BerBer
            "Waiting for a crisis is worse than the crisis itself."

            There is such a thing! Wait and catch up ... few people love.
      2. Edik
        Edik 19 November 2019 18: 34
        0
        Quote: Horst78
        If the "doctors" and "professors" even speak their own language, then it is not at all clear what the different self-appointed "experts" from some "institutes" are saying.

        And I'll tell you what they carry !! They say they want to eat very much and it’s better to always be green yes
    4. at84432384
      at84432384 20 November 2019 20: 01
      0
      If the authors see the difference between the dollar and the euro, they themselves do not understand what they wrote.
  3. knn54
    knn54 19 November 2019 15: 29
    -5
    Need an INDEPENDENT Central Bank.
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 19 November 2019 15: 39
      +4
      Quote: knn54
      Need an INDEPENDENT Central Bank.

      We need the State Bank of Russia with Vnesheconom Bank and the State Treasury. Where should financial policies be imposed and lending rates maintained at 3,5-4%. Which are obliged to strengthen the national currency and have solid assets in the bins that do not depend on the mood and political ambitions of partners.
      1. knn54
        knn54 19 November 2019 15: 58
        +2
        Ross
        Central Bank, State Bank, National Bank - the name does not play a role, MAJOR-independent
        -.Need a STRONG, non-commodity economy.
        -Do not go too far, otherwise investors will leave.
        -Do not open accounts (including individuals) in bucks-at any time the Yankees may impose sanctions on the use of the dollar by the Russians.
        1. Ross xnumx
          Ross xnumx 19 November 2019 16: 13
          +1
          Am I against it?
          Name: State Bank of Russia, - suggests that it is an independent bank of Russia.
          Quote: knn54
          -.Need a STRONG, non-commodity economy.

          Naturally. Those who need raw materials need a weak ruble and an incomprehensible belonging (right to property) of natural resources.
        2. Ingvar 72
          Ingvar 72 19 November 2019 19: 19
          +9
          Quote: knn54
          -Do not go too far, otherwise investors will leave.

          Do we need them? belay Not. I often hear talk about the need for investment, but at the same time, Russia itself is investing huge sums in the economies of other countries. Only in Austria invested more than 20 billion. Euro. To Germany a little less. And if you count everything, you can fill up the whole country with money.
          So do we need investments when the grandmas themselves are full? wink
  4. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 19 November 2019 15: 33
    +5
    Alexey Podymov, Anatoly Ivanov, Doctor of Economics, Professor

    I like Professor Baranov from the program "Meeting Place"
    The author of the article:
    You, my friend, of those husbands 
    What is more harmless than snakes:
     They bite him, not bite,
    Do not say isho is worse!


    Simple currency is all dead weightcontinuously losing value due to inflation.

    That's cool! Special live load - currency whose price is not more than the value of the paper on which it is printed. And the gold security of the currency is an anachronism. Especially the gold reserve. It is not a matter of how to transport it, but how to steal it in the amount equivalent to a billion dollars.
    But doesn’t it confuse the fact that the state that issues these dollars is not only not embarrassed by the growing public debt, but also continues to increase the efficiency of its own economy by imposing satellite countries with trade duties, obligations and imposed terms of sales?
    The course to reduce dependence on the dollar in Russia is regularly criticized, and precisely because the dollar is strengthening relative to most other currencies.

    Of course you have to expose. Especially for those who plan to build a house in Spain, Italy. You can’t build a dog house on the Russian ruble there ... Have you tried to study Adam Smith? You can also find out:
    As the state gets richer
    And how he lives, and why
    He doesn't need gold
    When a simple product has.

    However. It’s gone. Where is the profit here? Where are the payment systems and the digitalization of the economy, where everything is decided by a simple keystroke?
    Dollarization is our everything! I don’t know whose motto this is, but I’m probably not able to go to a restaurant, exchange, or bank without a dollar. This is how currency speculation appears on a national scale. You are homespun, and rub yourself in a ruble.
    hi
    1. Revolver
      Revolver 20 November 2019 06: 53
      0
      Quote: ROSS 42
      without a dollar, he is no longer able to go to a restaurant, an exchange, or a bank.

      For many years now, I don’t even know how much cash I have in my wallet, and whether there are any at all. Somehow I’m getting more involved with cards. AmEx, Visa, Master. Now even the smallest businesses take cards, and those who do not take lose their customers. And they take these cards everywhere, even in America, even in the Bahamas, even if on a ship in the middle of the sea. And the calculations with the cards are in them, $$$, but again not cash, but virtual, directly from the bank account.
  5. Sergst
    Sergst 19 November 2019 15: 42
    0
    Quote: Svarog

    My dear, everything is proportional .. and in what place are we in terms of GDP in the world? on the 12th

    Well, PPP is not so bad.
    1. Keyser soze
      Keyser soze 19 November 2019 16: 04
      -3
      Well, PPP is not so bad.


      Something leafed through the macroeconomic statistics of the world of these days and hit:

      For 2018 year, Americans donated one billion dollars to charity 427,1
      The expenditure side of the budget of the Russian Federation for 2019 is 274,7 billion dollars.

      This explains everything.
      1. Foul skeptic
        Foul skeptic 19 November 2019 16: 27
        +1
        This does not mean anything. In the same 2018, the budget deficit in the United States is 779 billion dollars.
      2. Ross xnumx
        Ross xnumx 20 November 2019 09: 30
        +4
        Quote: Keyser Soze
        For 2018 year, Americans donated one billion dollars to charity 427,1
        The expenditure side of the budget of the Russian Federation for 2019 is 274,7 billion dollars.
        This explains everything.

        You didn’t beguile anything? Judging by the accent, are you, my dear man, from Poland? I will give you the layout:
        In accordance with the adopted draft budget of Russia for 2019, the following characteristics can be noted in numbers:
        $ 63,4 - the price per barrel of Urals brand oil, which was fixed by the Ministry of Finance in the budget as a base level;
        63,9 rubles - the forecasted value of one US dollar;
        4,3% - the forecasted inflation value;
        19,948 trillion rubles - the revenue side of the budget. This is 4,766 trillion. more rubles than in the previous 2018;
        18,063 trillion rubles - the expenditure side of the budget. This is more than the previous year by about one and a half trillion;
        1,885 trillion rubles - budget surplus (which is 1,8% of GDP). The last time was surplus in 2011, all subsequent years until the current year were scarce;

        Based on this, you can make the calculation of the budget expenditures in dollars:
        18: 063, 000 = $ 000
        or have you already withdrawn your share for services?
        American gifts are still "hiccuped" to the Japanese, and the Vietnamese, and in Yugoslavia, and in Iraq ... Even we know what American aid is.
  6. Berkut24
    Berkut24 19 November 2019 16: 44
    +5
    The Central Bank has no problem fighting the dollar. The Central Bank has the task of maximally securing the domestic financial market in the context of the impending crisis. Therefore, he will continue to occasionally carry out some risky operations, but in a strictly limited quantity. No one took off the tasks of increasing the airbag in the form of gold reserves.
    It doesn’t matter what the score is now. It is important who in what place in the standings will be the result of the crisis.
  7. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 19 November 2019 17: 14
    0
    Unfortunately, no matter how we puffed up, we are led, and the USA is leading in the financial world.
  8. rocket757
    rocket757 19 November 2019 17: 27
    0
    This argument can be endless! And the result? The result will be, in the end, everything and see everything.
    In the meantime, take the seeds and fill up, wait.
  9. Alexander Sosnitsky
    Alexander Sosnitsky 19 November 2019 17: 44
    0
    Give some more quotes from Mao to pray for too. The authors write as if on a par with Trump and his dollar figures. So the phrase "Khabibullin, you ram!" Is recalled. The ruble is what the ruble economy is. So where is she, dear ruble doctors-economists? Where are your ideas and what did you really want to say in this article? What you say is clear without you.
  10. Alexga
    Alexga 19 November 2019 18: 17
    -1
    There is a way to fill up the dollar and everyone else. This is to introduce the golden equivalent of the ruble. It was in the Republic of Ingushetia and the USSR. Especially when you consider that all banks are passionate about issuing loans, and according to estimates in the world two-thirds of the money supply is not provided with anything. Here is the solution.
  11. parusnik
    parusnik 19 November 2019 19: 17
    +4
    Hmm ... but the rupee is still wooden, but I remember ... the reformers in the late 80s and early 90s shouted we will make the rupe a competitor to the dollar, we have everything for this .. They may have everything. ..
  12. Tank jacket
    Tank jacket 19 November 2019 19: 43
    +2
    1. Washington consensus is all. (China collapsed yuan)
    3. The liberal financial model has become obsolete (there is nowhere to lower rates, there is no economic growth, printing dollars does not solve the problems of the middle class, world debt has reached 230 percent of world GDP
    3. The world expects a collapse into three currency zones. (Ruble, dollar, yuan)
    4. Global financial liberal bankers will be excommunicated from financial management.
    laughing
  13. fif21
    fif21 23 November 2019 22: 06
    +1
    1. Policy. Russia for a multipolar world. So for different currencies in the calculations.
    2. Economy. Why Russia needs a lot of US dollars, if the trade between our countries is scanty.
    3. The war. The US uses the dollar and its payment system as a pressure on Russia's economy and politics.
    Conclusion: The rejection of the US dollar as an international means of payment only strengthens Russia's sovereignty and saves the economy of sanctions (there is no instrument of pressure) and trade wars. hi
  14. Fevralsk. Morev
    Fevralsk. Morev 24 November 2019 04: 09
    -1
    The author joked, having collected in one article, according to the scheme "people, horses mixed". I agree in everything (although I did not understand anything, but what to do?). I am opposed to our compradors being called our home-grown liberals.