Assad defeats Kurds in Turkish military operation
The situation in Syria is becoming increasingly confused. Today, understanding the goals and objectives of different parties is becoming more and more difficult. There is no traditional division into “ours” and “not ours”. All sides are fighting international terrorism, but for some reason from different sides of the front.
Understanding the reasons for Turkey’s invasion of a sovereign state is quite simple. And the development of such an operation was known back in the spring. Intelligence already reported on the impending attack on the Kurds. Moreover, the Turkish leader then received a warning that in the event of an attack on foreign territory, his country would turn into a violator of several international treaties and the UN Charter at once.
Violation of international treaties today is the norm rather than the exception. Let me remind you that Operation Source of Peace is already the third that the Turks are conducting in Syria. There were also the Shield of the Euphrates and the Olive Branch. It was during these operations that Erdogan managed to create a buffer zone between the cities of Aazaz and Dzharabluz. In addition, the Turkish army occupied the city of Afrin.
Official Ankara convinces the world by all means that the operation "Source of Peace" is just a continuation of the defeat of terrorists, the desire of the Turks to prevent the militants from transferring to their own territory. This is perceived by experts as a clumsy attempt to cover up the true targets of the invasion with a fig leaf.
In fact, the objectives of the operation are only partially voiced. The destruction of a possible terrorist corridor through which militants enter Turkey is more a PR action than a real goal. Turks have every opportunity to strangle militants on the border of the country and without destroying the autonomy of the Kurds.
The Kurdish problem in Turkey is quite acute. Kurds are a divided people. Some tribes live in Turkey, some in Syria. Ankara successfully suppressed all attempts to crush the Kurds' desire to create their own autonomy in Turkey. But with the advent of Kurdish political autonomy in Syria in 2014, this has become harder and harder to do.
Simply put, strengthening the position of the Kurds in the SAR is quite dangerous for Turkey. The political autonomy of the Kurds of Syria threatens the emergence of the same autonomy in Turkey. And ultimately - the creation of a united political autonomy of the Kurds of both countries. What threatens in the long term the creation of an independent Kurdish state in the territories belonging to the Turks and Syrians.
At least, it is precisely such thoughts that push some decisions of the Turkish government. It seems that the Syrian Kurdish party "Democratic Union" is recognized by Ankara as a terrorist organization only because it cooperates with separatists from the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party. Because of its separatism, or rather, because of calls to create political autonomy for the Kurds within Turkey, this party has been recognized by Ankara as a terrorist organization.
Perhaps for some readers it will be a revelation that the operation "Source of Peace" was a direct consequence of the actions of US President Trump. Moreover, before the start of the operation, the presidents of the two countries had a telephone conversation, in which, according to some assumptions, the topic of Kurds was naturally addressed.
It seems to me that the Turkish president perfectly calculated Trump. An American today is in a situation where more efforts are needed to achieve internal achievements than to assert the leading role of the USA in the world. Elections always knock the United States out of international life for some time.
Trump has repeatedly stated the need for the withdrawal of American troops from the war regions. Including from Syria. By the way, the conclusion occurred a long time ago. But not at once, but gradually. There are a lot of problems with the logistics of the American army, as exercises in Europe have shown. That's why they pulled out units in pieces. This is known not only by the allies, but also by the opponents of the Americans.
Another question arises. But what about coalition troops? Without the Turks, of course. Will they stay after the Americans leave? The answer is obvious. The coalition will heroically run away even before the complete withdrawal of the US Army. In the near future we will hear about it. Europeans are unable to conduct military operations without an American umbrella over their heads. Weak on the knees of modern Europeans.
So, in my opinion, the actions of the Turkish president are coordinated with the main ally of the Kurds - the Americans. Moreover, the Americans directly pushed Erdogan to conduct this operation. For what? Alas, for the United States it is important to maintain the image of a superpower. And the success of the Turks in the first stage of the operation will just contribute to this. “While we were in this region, there was peace! But as soon as the US Army left, the war broke out with renewed vigor. ”
But what about US diplomatic steps to condemn Turkey’s aggression? What about bills on sanctions against Turkey? But no way. We saw very well how the Americans can work in this direction on the example of Russia, China, Iran. What do we see today? Mouse fuss with imitation of intense activity. Trump did not approve of Erdogan's actions and threatened him with a finger.
The reaction of world leaders to events in Syria is interesting. Let me remind you that Turkey is a member of the coalition. Not an independent participant, namely a member of the NATO team from 28 countries. Moreover, while Erdogan was restrained by Trump, Merkel, Macron and Johnson were confident that they were leading Europe. That the EU and NATO without their permission cannot do anything on their own.
What happened? The Turkish president actually spat in their faces. Every cricket, know your hearth. “This is my region, and I will do here what I consider necessary for my country” - something like this can be taken. But most importantly, in reality, European leaders cannot do anything with Erdogan. It’s scary to get involved, without the USA it can be painfully received in return.
They tried to restrain the presumptuous Turkish president through the UN. That's what RIA reportedNews12 October:
The usual call to nowhere. Moreover, the Americans reacted to this more restrained than expected. More precisely, the representative of the United States neutralized the European call:
And what about Russia? Here, too, it is enough to quote the message of RIA Novosti.
Alas, for Turkey the fulfillment of the tasks set is practically impossible. Firstly, the Turks decided to fight the Kurds, understanding by this common name almost all the tribes that live in northeast Syria. To be honest, it looks wild for a country that itself is part of not only the European, but also the Asian world.
The first military successes that the Turkish army has thanks to the use of aviation, which the Kurds cannot resist, will soon turn into a serious defeat of Erdogan. The Turks are not particularly eager to fight on the ground. During the war with the IG, Kurdish tribes learned to fight. These are really strong military formations consisting of trained fighters.
Assad and Putin will take the victory from Erdogan. And the Syrian president will be the main winner.
Turkish aviation has made the Kurds more accommodating and peaceful. It is as military experts that they understand the futility of military operations without neutralizing aircraft. And who can "land" Turkish planes and helicopters on the ground? Who has the necessary air defense equipment? Assad!
Today, the Turks made the Kurds recognize themselves as part of the SAR. This alone explains the entry of the Syrian army into Kurdish-controlled territories. Note that the Kurds voluntarily allowed the Syrian army to be deployed on its own territory. But Assad’s army came not only with machine guns and tanks. The army came with its own air defense.
What does Putin have to do with it? Russia seems to have stopped the military operation against terrorists. And the military advisers who are present in the Syrian army are more involved in military construction and investigating terrorist acts than in helping to plan military operations.
It's like that. I have already talked about the air force base in Syria and about the aircraft that are deployed there. Here is a message from October 14:
In general, it can be said that Turkey’s military operation against the Kurds, which today, according to Turkish intelligence, claimed the lives of 18 Turkish army personnel and 500 Kurds (plus 200 civilians injured), benefited Assad more than Erdogan. The further presence of the Turkish army in the Kurdish regions with the support of the Kurds by the Assad army threatens to increase losses without any real benefits. If the Turkish president does not stop the operation and does not begin negotiations, Turkey will be stuck in this operation for a long time.
The Turks understand this. Probably, soon we will hear about the beginning of peace negotiations between Turkey and Syria with the participation of the Kurds.
Reasons for Operation Source of Peace
Understanding the reasons for Turkey’s invasion of a sovereign state is quite simple. And the development of such an operation was known back in the spring. Intelligence already reported on the impending attack on the Kurds. Moreover, the Turkish leader then received a warning that in the event of an attack on foreign territory, his country would turn into a violator of several international treaties and the UN Charter at once.
Violation of international treaties today is the norm rather than the exception. Let me remind you that Operation Source of Peace is already the third that the Turks are conducting in Syria. There were also the Shield of the Euphrates and the Olive Branch. It was during these operations that Erdogan managed to create a buffer zone between the cities of Aazaz and Dzharabluz. In addition, the Turkish army occupied the city of Afrin.
Official Ankara convinces the world by all means that the operation "Source of Peace" is just a continuation of the defeat of terrorists, the desire of the Turks to prevent the militants from transferring to their own territory. This is perceived by experts as a clumsy attempt to cover up the true targets of the invasion with a fig leaf.
In fact, the objectives of the operation are only partially voiced. The destruction of a possible terrorist corridor through which militants enter Turkey is more a PR action than a real goal. Turks have every opportunity to strangle militants on the border of the country and without destroying the autonomy of the Kurds.
The Kurdish problem in Turkey is quite acute. Kurds are a divided people. Some tribes live in Turkey, some in Syria. Ankara successfully suppressed all attempts to crush the Kurds' desire to create their own autonomy in Turkey. But with the advent of Kurdish political autonomy in Syria in 2014, this has become harder and harder to do.
Simply put, strengthening the position of the Kurds in the SAR is quite dangerous for Turkey. The political autonomy of the Kurds of Syria threatens the emergence of the same autonomy in Turkey. And ultimately - the creation of a united political autonomy of the Kurds of both countries. What threatens in the long term the creation of an independent Kurdish state in the territories belonging to the Turks and Syrians.
At least, it is precisely such thoughts that push some decisions of the Turkish government. It seems that the Syrian Kurdish party "Democratic Union" is recognized by Ankara as a terrorist organization only because it cooperates with separatists from the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party. Because of its separatism, or rather, because of calls to create political autonomy for the Kurds within Turkey, this party has been recognized by Ankara as a terrorist organization.
Why Erdogan started the operation right now
Perhaps for some readers it will be a revelation that the operation "Source of Peace" was a direct consequence of the actions of US President Trump. Moreover, before the start of the operation, the presidents of the two countries had a telephone conversation, in which, according to some assumptions, the topic of Kurds was naturally addressed.
It seems to me that the Turkish president perfectly calculated Trump. An American today is in a situation where more efforts are needed to achieve internal achievements than to assert the leading role of the USA in the world. Elections always knock the United States out of international life for some time.
Trump has repeatedly stated the need for the withdrawal of American troops from the war regions. Including from Syria. By the way, the conclusion occurred a long time ago. But not at once, but gradually. There are a lot of problems with the logistics of the American army, as exercises in Europe have shown. That's why they pulled out units in pieces. This is known not only by the allies, but also by the opponents of the Americans.
Another question arises. But what about coalition troops? Without the Turks, of course. Will they stay after the Americans leave? The answer is obvious. The coalition will heroically run away even before the complete withdrawal of the US Army. In the near future we will hear about it. Europeans are unable to conduct military operations without an American umbrella over their heads. Weak on the knees of modern Europeans.
So, in my opinion, the actions of the Turkish president are coordinated with the main ally of the Kurds - the Americans. Moreover, the Americans directly pushed Erdogan to conduct this operation. For what? Alas, for the United States it is important to maintain the image of a superpower. And the success of the Turks in the first stage of the operation will just contribute to this. “While we were in this region, there was peace! But as soon as the US Army left, the war broke out with renewed vigor. ”
But what about US diplomatic steps to condemn Turkey’s aggression? What about bills on sanctions against Turkey? But no way. We saw very well how the Americans can work in this direction on the example of Russia, China, Iran. What do we see today? Mouse fuss with imitation of intense activity. Trump did not approve of Erdogan's actions and threatened him with a finger.
How did the leading countries respond
The reaction of world leaders to events in Syria is interesting. Let me remind you that Turkey is a member of the coalition. Not an independent participant, namely a member of the NATO team from 28 countries. Moreover, while Erdogan was restrained by Trump, Merkel, Macron and Johnson were confident that they were leading Europe. That the EU and NATO without their permission cannot do anything on their own.
What happened? The Turkish president actually spat in their faces. Every cricket, know your hearth. “This is my region, and I will do here what I consider necessary for my country” - something like this can be taken. But most importantly, in reality, European leaders cannot do anything with Erdogan. It’s scary to get involved, without the USA it can be painfully received in return.
They tried to restrain the presumptuous Turkish president through the UN. That's what RIA reportedNews12 October:
"Representatives from Germany, Britain, France, Poland, Belgium and Estonia said they were deeply concerned about Turkey’s military operation and called on Ankara to end unilateral military operations."
The usual call to nowhere. Moreover, the Americans reacted to this more restrained than expected. More precisely, the representative of the United States neutralized the European call:
“US Permanent Representative Kelly Kraft only indicated that Washington did not approve of the Turkish operation. According to her, the American side warned Ankara about the possible consequences if the actions of the Turkish army will untie the hands of militants of the Islamic State (banned in Russia. - Auth.) In the region. "
And what about Russia? Here, too, it is enough to quote the message of RIA Novosti.
“The head of the Russian mission to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said that all parties should show maximum restraint during this operation. He also emphasized that Source of Peace "is the result of demographic engineering carried out by some coalition members in northeastern Syria." According to him, one should not forget that Moscow has repeatedly called on them "not to experiment with this, not to try to classify the Arab tribes that traditionally live there as Kurdish."
Will Turkey solve the tasks
Alas, for Turkey the fulfillment of the tasks set is practically impossible. Firstly, the Turks decided to fight the Kurds, understanding by this common name almost all the tribes that live in northeast Syria. To be honest, it looks wild for a country that itself is part of not only the European, but also the Asian world.
The first military successes that the Turkish army has thanks to the use of aviation, which the Kurds cannot resist, will soon turn into a serious defeat of Erdogan. The Turks are not particularly eager to fight on the ground. During the war with the IG, Kurdish tribes learned to fight. These are really strong military formations consisting of trained fighters.
Assad and Putin will take the victory from Erdogan. And the Syrian president will be the main winner.
Turkish aviation has made the Kurds more accommodating and peaceful. It is as military experts that they understand the futility of military operations without neutralizing aircraft. And who can "land" Turkish planes and helicopters on the ground? Who has the necessary air defense equipment? Assad!
Today, the Turks made the Kurds recognize themselves as part of the SAR. This alone explains the entry of the Syrian army into Kurdish-controlled territories. Note that the Kurds voluntarily allowed the Syrian army to be deployed on its own territory. But Assad’s army came not only with machine guns and tanks. The army came with its own air defense.
What does Putin have to do with it? Russia seems to have stopped the military operation against terrorists. And the military advisers who are present in the Syrian army are more involved in military construction and investigating terrorist acts than in helping to plan military operations.
It's like that. I have already talked about the air force base in Syria and about the aircraft that are deployed there. Here is a message from October 14:
The Russian Aerospace Forces struck the strongholds of the radicals in the area of the village of Al-Nakir and near the city of Sheikh Mustafa, destroyed the fortifications of the Tahrir al-Sham jihadist alliance in the south of Idlib province. This sortie was launched in response to militants firing on the Syrian army in the vicinity of the Khan-Tuman village from multiple launch rocket systems this afternoon, according to Masar Press Net.
Russia is gone, but Russia will always help!
In general, it can be said that Turkey’s military operation against the Kurds, which today, according to Turkish intelligence, claimed the lives of 18 Turkish army personnel and 500 Kurds (plus 200 civilians injured), benefited Assad more than Erdogan. The further presence of the Turkish army in the Kurdish regions with the support of the Kurds by the Assad army threatens to increase losses without any real benefits. If the Turkish president does not stop the operation and does not begin negotiations, Turkey will be stuck in this operation for a long time.
The Turks understand this. Probably, soon we will hear about the beginning of peace negotiations between Turkey and Syria with the participation of the Kurds.
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