Does Russia need a return to the G8?
US President Donald Trump raised the question of the possibility of Russia returning to G-7 - the G8. The mere fact that the head of the American state spoke about this testifies to large-scale changes in the political strategy of the “collective West”. But what can these changes lead to?
History The “Group of Seven,” or the “Big Seven,” has its roots in the 1970 years, when the need arose for the consolidation and close interaction of the most economically developed countries of the world. The initiative came from the president of France, Valerie Giscard d'Estaing, who gathered in 1975 year the heads of six states - the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Japan. In 1976, Canada joined the meetings. Thus formed the "Big Seven."
The collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia's rejection of communist ideology contributed to the relative normalization of relations between our country and the West. At that time, the United States and European states seemed that Russia would no longer pose a serious threat to the emerging world order, but, given the territorial dimensions of Russia, the presence of nuclear weapons, economic opportunities and natural resources in the West, it was deemed appropriate to integrate Russia into the "Big Seven." This integration took place in stages, during the 1990's - the beginning of the 2000's. The G7 has become the G8.
Of course, Russia has never been a full-fledged member of the group, given the specifics of the attitude of Western countries towards our country. Nevertheless, without the participation of Russia, it would be impossible to consult on key world events, to develop some solutions. Therefore, Western leaders put up with the presence of our country in the club of the most developed powers.
Although by the beginning of the XXI century it was already clear that the club does not reflect the current world situation. For example, China does not participate in it. Yes, in the 1975 year, when the "Big Seven" was just being created, China was an agrarian country dominated by Maoist ideology. But now the situation has changed radically. Is Italy or Canada more developed and influential than the Middle Kingdom? In any case, the presence of Russia at least somehow created the impression of the G8 coverage not only of the United States and its allies, but also of other countries of the world.
But in 2014, after the events in Ukraine and the reunification of the Crimean Peninsula with Russia, Russia's participation in the group’s meetings was terminated. The G8 has become the G7 again. But after five years, the West, apparently, felt some discomfort from the lack of the possibility of dialogue with Russia within the framework of this club. Otherwise, how to explain the position of Donald trump?
At a meeting with Romanian President Klaus Johannis, US President Donald Trump gave a lengthy commentary on the G7 and Russia. The head of the White House said:
Further, continuing his thought, Trump noted that if “someone had come forward” with a proposal to return Russia to the G8, he would have reacted positively to this proposal. And this someone was found - he turned out to be French President Emmanuel Macron. In the post-Soviet period, Paris always had a special relationship with Moscow, more loyal than that of Washington.
Even now, despite the presence of sanctions, France does not abandon numerous joint projects with Russia, supports the construction of the Nord Stream-2. Therefore, it is not surprising that the proposal to return Russia to the G8 format came from the French leader.
The meeting of Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin gave rise to reflection and supporters of cooperation with Russia, and opponents of our country. Ukrainian nationalist politicians erupted in criticism of Paris, arguing that Macron had “caved in” under Putin, and it would not be about Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok, but about Russia from Lisbon to Vladivostok. For supporters of cooperation with Russia, the words of the French president, published on his page on a social network, became a "balm."
Donald Trump has a very strange attitude towards Russia and Putin. On the one hand, Trump, as the head of the American state, is obliged to demonstrate maximum rigidity in relation to Moscow. But Trump sincerely sympathizes with Putin: he, a populist with a clear right bias, is impressed by the style of the Russian president and many of his actions. And, of course, Trump understands that without Russia’s return to the G8, numerous problems cannot be resolved.
But Trump does not have any clear proposals for the return of Russia to the G8. Although he could put forward certain requirements for Moscow, seeking their implementation. Trump’s words about the possibility of Russia’s returning to the G8 without any specific conditions can be considered as the US’s readiness to reconcile with the reunification of Crimea with Russia - the main trump card of anti-Russian forces in the West.
CNN journalist Kylie Atwood tweeted that Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron, in a telephone conversation, came to the conclusion that Russia should be invited to the G7 summit in 2020. Thus, in the West a kind of coalition has been formed on this issue - the United States and France do not object to Russia's presence in the G8.
Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel takes a slightly different position. She said that so far she does not see progress that allows talking about the elimination of the reasons that in the 2014 year contributed to Russia's withdrawal from the G8. We are talking about the Minsk agreements, which, according to Merkel, are not being implemented with due success.
However, Germany’s position may also change, given that of all the serious European states, Germany is currently most dependent on cooperation with Russia. For example, the same Nord Stream-2 project is of strategic importance for both the Russian Federation and Germany. So the words of Merkel against the background of the position of Macron and Trump should not be taken unambiguously. It may still change, especially in the process of consultations between the German authorities and their French counterparts.
A completely different situation with the UK. In London they occupy the toughest anti-Russian position. Only the regimes of Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic states are worse off, but they, fortunately, have no effect either on the G8 or on the economic and political situation in Europe. The new British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, inherited the anti-Russian line of his predecessors as head of the cabinet.
Boris Johnson noted that so far he sees no reason to return Russia to the G8. The British prime minister listed the numerous "sins" of Russia - the story of the poisoning of Skripals, chemical weapons, the civil war in Ukraine, some provocations that Russia allegedly carries out around the world. All these factors, from the point of view of the British prime minister, are an obstacle to the return of Russia to the G8 format.
Thus, on the issue of Russia's return to the G8, there have been disagreements between key partners. France and Germany, which are close to each other on most economic and political issues, in this case do not demonstrate unity of position. Even more controversy between the US and the UK are also key political allies and economic partners.
The return of Russia to the G8, if it takes place on the initiative of Trump and contrary to the opinion of the British, Germans, and probably Canadians, will indicate that Washington does not put its allies and partners in anything and is the undisputed leader of the Western world, capable of dictate their terms and not pay attention to the point of view of their own allies. And it seems that Trump has already gone really far, since the position of the American president has become known to the world community.
Now it’s too late to retreat - if Trump and Macron give up their words, they will demonstrate weakness, if they do not give up, then they will demonstrate neglect of the position of the Allies. The only way out of this situation is to urgently come up with some requirements and put forward them to Moscow. Moreover, the requirements may be deliberately impracticable, for example, the return of Crimea to Ukraine. Russia will not meet such requirements and then the West will be able to say: Trump, as a peacemaker, cared for peace, sought dialogue, but Putin again refused it on his own initiative.
This is another interesting question. On the one hand, the G8 format provides more opportunities for interaction with the West, but on the other hand, nothing will happen if we do not return to this group of Western powers. For example, China and India are also not members of the G8, which does not prevent them from building up their economic potential and expanding their political influence. In the same way, Russia, as practice has shown, is a self-sufficient power and is not in close cooperation with Western countries.
The concept of the "Big Seven" is currently completely outdated, not reflecting the real situation, the real alignment in world politics and economics. It was formed during the Cold War, in a bipolar world, as a coalition of Western states with similar economic and political models for organizing public life.
Now the situation has changed radically. The world has become multipolar, but the G7 remains the same, does not demonstrate the flexibility and variability that is so needed in the modern world. Well, is it not strange that Japan is in G7, but there is no China. Italy is, but India is not. And this is not to mention that there are other centers of power, including regional ones - the same Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia have a much greater impact on entire regions of the world than Italy, Japan or Canada.
Therefore, if Russia does not return to the G8, it will not lose anything. The Russian leadership understands this very well and does not respond to the words of Trump and Macron in some tumultuous way. Moreover, it is already obvious that the West needs Russia more and more, and Russia needs the West less and less.
Today, when the United States competes with China, they are mortally afraid of the Russian-Chinese bloc, as well as the confrontation between the West and the modernized East. So they are making an attempt to bring Russia closer again, for which they are even ready to turn a blind eye to their own claims about the Donbass, Crimea, Syria.
Russia and the "Big Seven"
History The “Group of Seven,” or the “Big Seven,” has its roots in the 1970 years, when the need arose for the consolidation and close interaction of the most economically developed countries of the world. The initiative came from the president of France, Valerie Giscard d'Estaing, who gathered in 1975 year the heads of six states - the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Japan. In 1976, Canada joined the meetings. Thus formed the "Big Seven."
The collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia's rejection of communist ideology contributed to the relative normalization of relations between our country and the West. At that time, the United States and European states seemed that Russia would no longer pose a serious threat to the emerging world order, but, given the territorial dimensions of Russia, the presence of nuclear weapons, economic opportunities and natural resources in the West, it was deemed appropriate to integrate Russia into the "Big Seven." This integration took place in stages, during the 1990's - the beginning of the 2000's. The G7 has become the G8.
Of course, Russia has never been a full-fledged member of the group, given the specifics of the attitude of Western countries towards our country. Nevertheless, without the participation of Russia, it would be impossible to consult on key world events, to develop some solutions. Therefore, Western leaders put up with the presence of our country in the club of the most developed powers.
Although by the beginning of the XXI century it was already clear that the club does not reflect the current world situation. For example, China does not participate in it. Yes, in the 1975 year, when the "Big Seven" was just being created, China was an agrarian country dominated by Maoist ideology. But now the situation has changed radically. Is Italy or Canada more developed and influential than the Middle Kingdom? In any case, the presence of Russia at least somehow created the impression of the G8 coverage not only of the United States and its allies, but also of other countries of the world.
But in 2014, after the events in Ukraine and the reunification of the Crimean Peninsula with Russia, Russia's participation in the group’s meetings was terminated. The G8 has become the G7 again. But after five years, the West, apparently, felt some discomfort from the lack of the possibility of dialogue with Russia within the framework of this club. Otherwise, how to explain the position of Donald trump?
Trump: Putin outwitted Obama
At a meeting with Romanian President Klaus Johannis, US President Donald Trump gave a lengthy commentary on the G7 and Russia. The head of the White House said:
At meetings, we often talk about Russia, since I was at numerous meetings of the G7. I think Putin outwitted President Obama because President Obama thought it was bad when Russia joined the G8. Therefore, he wanted Russia to come out of it. I think that it is much more appropriate to see Russia, and this should be the G8, because many of the things we are talking about are related to Russia.
Further, continuing his thought, Trump noted that if “someone had come forward” with a proposal to return Russia to the G8, he would have reacted positively to this proposal. And this someone was found - he turned out to be French President Emmanuel Macron. In the post-Soviet period, Paris always had a special relationship with Moscow, more loyal than that of Washington.
Even now, despite the presence of sanctions, France does not abandon numerous joint projects with Russia, supports the construction of the Nord Stream-2. Therefore, it is not surprising that the proposal to return Russia to the G8 format came from the French leader.
The meeting of Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin gave rise to reflection and supporters of cooperation with Russia, and opponents of our country. Ukrainian nationalist politicians erupted in criticism of Paris, arguing that Macron had “caved in” under Putin, and it would not be about Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok, but about Russia from Lisbon to Vladivostok. For supporters of cooperation with Russia, the words of the French president, published on his page on a social network, became a "balm."
Will the “seven” become the “eight” again?
Donald Trump has a very strange attitude towards Russia and Putin. On the one hand, Trump, as the head of the American state, is obliged to demonstrate maximum rigidity in relation to Moscow. But Trump sincerely sympathizes with Putin: he, a populist with a clear right bias, is impressed by the style of the Russian president and many of his actions. And, of course, Trump understands that without Russia’s return to the G8, numerous problems cannot be resolved.
But Trump does not have any clear proposals for the return of Russia to the G8. Although he could put forward certain requirements for Moscow, seeking their implementation. Trump’s words about the possibility of Russia’s returning to the G8 without any specific conditions can be considered as the US’s readiness to reconcile with the reunification of Crimea with Russia - the main trump card of anti-Russian forces in the West.
CNN journalist Kylie Atwood tweeted that Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron, in a telephone conversation, came to the conclusion that Russia should be invited to the G7 summit in 2020. Thus, in the West a kind of coalition has been formed on this issue - the United States and France do not object to Russia's presence in the G8.
Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel takes a slightly different position. She said that so far she does not see progress that allows talking about the elimination of the reasons that in the 2014 year contributed to Russia's withdrawal from the G8. We are talking about the Minsk agreements, which, according to Merkel, are not being implemented with due success.
However, Germany’s position may also change, given that of all the serious European states, Germany is currently most dependent on cooperation with Russia. For example, the same Nord Stream-2 project is of strategic importance for both the Russian Federation and Germany. So the words of Merkel against the background of the position of Macron and Trump should not be taken unambiguously. It may still change, especially in the process of consultations between the German authorities and their French counterparts.
A completely different situation with the UK. In London they occupy the toughest anti-Russian position. Only the regimes of Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic states are worse off, but they, fortunately, have no effect either on the G8 or on the economic and political situation in Europe. The new British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, inherited the anti-Russian line of his predecessors as head of the cabinet.
Boris Johnson noted that so far he sees no reason to return Russia to the G8. The British prime minister listed the numerous "sins" of Russia - the story of the poisoning of Skripals, chemical weapons, the civil war in Ukraine, some provocations that Russia allegedly carries out around the world. All these factors, from the point of view of the British prime minister, are an obstacle to the return of Russia to the G8 format.
Thus, on the issue of Russia's return to the G8, there have been disagreements between key partners. France and Germany, which are close to each other on most economic and political issues, in this case do not demonstrate unity of position. Even more controversy between the US and the UK are also key political allies and economic partners.
The return of Russia to the G8, if it takes place on the initiative of Trump and contrary to the opinion of the British, Germans, and probably Canadians, will indicate that Washington does not put its allies and partners in anything and is the undisputed leader of the Western world, capable of dictate their terms and not pay attention to the point of view of their own allies. And it seems that Trump has already gone really far, since the position of the American president has become known to the world community.
Now it’s too late to retreat - if Trump and Macron give up their words, they will demonstrate weakness, if they do not give up, then they will demonstrate neglect of the position of the Allies. The only way out of this situation is to urgently come up with some requirements and put forward them to Moscow. Moreover, the requirements may be deliberately impracticable, for example, the return of Crimea to Ukraine. Russia will not meet such requirements and then the West will be able to say: Trump, as a peacemaker, cared for peace, sought dialogue, but Putin again refused it on his own initiative.
G7 - Deprecated Format
This is another interesting question. On the one hand, the G8 format provides more opportunities for interaction with the West, but on the other hand, nothing will happen if we do not return to this group of Western powers. For example, China and India are also not members of the G8, which does not prevent them from building up their economic potential and expanding their political influence. In the same way, Russia, as practice has shown, is a self-sufficient power and is not in close cooperation with Western countries.
The concept of the "Big Seven" is currently completely outdated, not reflecting the real situation, the real alignment in world politics and economics. It was formed during the Cold War, in a bipolar world, as a coalition of Western states with similar economic and political models for organizing public life.
Now the situation has changed radically. The world has become multipolar, but the G7 remains the same, does not demonstrate the flexibility and variability that is so needed in the modern world. Well, is it not strange that Japan is in G7, but there is no China. Italy is, but India is not. And this is not to mention that there are other centers of power, including regional ones - the same Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia have a much greater impact on entire regions of the world than Italy, Japan or Canada.
Therefore, if Russia does not return to the G8, it will not lose anything. The Russian leadership understands this very well and does not respond to the words of Trump and Macron in some tumultuous way. Moreover, it is already obvious that the West needs Russia more and more, and Russia needs the West less and less.
Today, when the United States competes with China, they are mortally afraid of the Russian-Chinese bloc, as well as the confrontation between the West and the modernized East. So they are making an attempt to bring Russia closer again, for which they are even ready to turn a blind eye to their own claims about the Donbass, Crimea, Syria.
Information