What did the intelligence report? The wars at dawn 22 did not wait for June
Various publications on intelligence materials
In many publications devoted to the beginning of the Great Patriotic War, intelligence materials (RM) are considered very superficially. With such a consideration of the RM, the wrong conclusion is made that intelligence reported everything accurately and in great detail. The conclusions are based on the fragments torn out from the Republic of Moldova and on the memories of war veterans. Such memories may overlap with post-war knowledge or there may be other reasons why the memories were distorted. For example, to avoid responsibility for mistakes and shift responsibility for their erroneous actions onto the shoulders of other bosses. Answers to the questions of Colonel-General Pokrovsky began to be collected during Stalin's lifetime. The consequences for the truthful answers in advance were difficult to predict.
If intelligence reports accurately, then, consequently, the unexpected attack of the Nazis on the troops of the border districts was guilty either by Stalin or the traitors-generals who dreamed of helping the fascists to enslave our country. You can stick to the third version, which was expressed by the author Wik in the materials of the “Unexpected War ...” series. She used the recheck of materials based on numerous memories and documents. This is where statistics come into their own: one memory cannot be considered true, if four others say otherwise. Rather, the opposite is true ... Memories can be considered reliable only if they are supported by documents or other memories of war veterans. In the cycle of the author Vick there is a lot of material to which it is necessary to refer or briefly repeat them. Hereinafter, these materials will be referred to as "cycle" and be accompanied by hyperlinks.
In an article devoted to the creation of the Southern Front (Part 1) were considered not a large number of the RM and the memories of veterans that the actual location of the German grouping at the border turned out to be completely different from what they knew in the headquarters of the districts and armies. The same, but discussed in more detail in the cycle (Part 14, Part 15, Part 16 и Part 17).
Misinformation and misinformation intelligence materials
Let me remind you that the German government, officials of the Foreign Ministry and other departments, intelligence services and the Wehrmacht, voluntarily or unwittingly spread mass disinformation. The leadership of the Soviet Union and the spacecraft received such "intelligence" information through numerous sources available in various fields and states. Our leadership should have had the impression that the RMs repeatedly rechecked from various sources are reliable! On the basis of these misinforming materials, conclusions were drawn that led to the tragic events in the border military districts ...
Not a single intelligence service in other countries could have obtained reliable information with such a massive flow of misinformation, in which even Hitler, Goebbels, Goering and other high-ranking officials of the Reich took part! There was no betrayal of the generals, there was no inhibition of the military initiative by Stalin. There was only an incorrect assessment of the expected actions of Hitler and the enemy forces concentrated on the Soviet-German border. Of course, there were also attempts not to give the Germans a reason for a full-scale war, and for this purpose it was necessary to avoid provocations ...
There was an attempt to warn Germany against attack by gradually building up its troops. First, far from the border, and then gradually increasing their number in the troops of the 1 th echelon of the covering armies. The main thing is that the number of divisions on both sides is comparable. Our divisions were stationed in points of deployment or in camps also at a distance from the border, like the German troops.
P.A. Sudoplatov wrote: “... In the spring of 1941, the Germans more than once managed to replay Soviet residencies in Berlin, Sofia, Bucharest, Bratislava, Ankara ... The management of the NARKOMAT DEFENSE and the GENERAL STATE sought to prevent the enemy from creating a group on our borders that would have an overwhelming superiority over the spacecraft. Achieving at least a balance of power on the border was an IMPORTANT direction of the military policy of keeping Hitler from a throw on the USSR ...». In the loop it was checked conviction.
It should be noted that even in the evening of June 21, the German command did not rule out the possibility of refusing to attack the USSR, disguising preparations for a full-scale war under separate provocations at the border.
17 Army Battlebook: “... 21.6.41 20-00. The troops read the appeal of the Fuhrer to the Soldiers of the Eastern Front.
20-00 The 52 Army Corps is instructed. conduct distractions in the area of Przemysl, even if the main offensive operation of the corps will be canceled... ".
Speaking of detailed RM, one should not think that the leadership of the country and the SC saw the grouping of German troops in the form shown in the figure.
Intelligence activity consists of obtaining reliable, verified information, its assessment, analysis of trends in specific situations, their prediction and assessment of likely consequences. The RMs that were received by the Spacecraft General Staff Intelligence Agency were processed, summarized and analyzed. Then the materials were sent to the leadership of the spacecraft and the Soviet Union. Since the initial RM included misinformation, the analysis of the situation was not reliable. An erroneous analysis of the materials was superimposed on an incorrect assessment of the necessary number of German divisions required for a full-scale war with the USSR.
Article It was shown that in the five documents from September 1940 to 22 June 1941, the number of troops that Germany should put up against the USSR was 173-200 divisions. There is not a single pre-war document that says that for an attack on the USSR, Germany will enough in the initial period to set 120-124 divisions! In the memoirs of veterans reflected only the actual number of troops involved in the attack.
Intelligence reports about the German grouping near the border
В Intelligence Report No. XXUMX West says: "...The total number of German troops on our western border with Germany and Romania (including Moldavia and Dobrudja) on 1 Jun reaches 120-122 divisions... Germanic troops are distributed along the following lines:
a) in East Prussia 23-24 divisions, including: 18-19 infantry and 3 motorized divisions, five tank regiments (2 tank divisions) and 7 cavalry regiments;
b) in the Warsaw area (against ZOVOVO) 30 divisions, including: 24 infantry, motorized, tank [divisions] and 6 Tank Regiments (total 4 Tank Divisions), Cavalry Division and 8 Cavalry Regiments;
c) in the Lublin-Krakow district (against KOVO) 35-36 divisions, including: 24-25 infantry, 5 motorized, to 6 tank divisions [some of these divisions are derived from five separate tank regiments and two tank battalions] and 5 cavalry regiments;
d) in the area of Danzig, Poznan, Thorn - 6 infantry divisions, cavalry regiment;
e) in Slovakia (in the area of Duplin, Presov, Michalovce) - 5 divisions ...;
f) in the Carpathian Ukraine - 4 divisions;
g) in Moldova and Northern Dobrudja - 17 divisions, including: 4 motorized, mountain and 2 tank ...
[Total 120-122 divisions. Some of the specified number of divisions are even located beyond 400 km from the border.]
The reserve of the main command is 44-48 divisions, of which: in the center of Germany - 16-17, in the area of Breslau, Moravska-Ostrava, Katowice - 6-9, in the center of Romania - 11, in Bulgaria - 11 ... ".
Together with the reserve, the number of German divisions is 164-170.
No intelligence was found on the territory of East Prussia and former Poland no one headquarters of tank groups and motorized corps. Many tank divisions were formed from tank regiments and battalions in bulk. To eliminate this incident, the writers came up with the following explanations:
- the leaders of the spacecraft are accustomed to count all the enemy troops as divisions and therefore information about the corps and armies in the Republic of Moldova is not given. This is probably a hint that the former noncoms who fell into the leadership of the spacecraft were inferior;
- no matter how many battalions, regiments or divisions, and most importantly - the number of tanks that can reach, for example, to Minsk. (A logical question arises: why then our mechanized corps at the beginning of the war with many hundreds of tanks lost their technique ineptly, if the main thing is the number of tanks?);
- in the archives there is more accurate intelligence data that reflect all the fullness of the situation. True, no one saw them, but the authors know that they exist;
- the border guards knew everything better than army intelligence and the Intelligence Agency of the General Staff of the spacecraft.
What the NKVD Border Guard intelligence reported in the spring of 1941, was discussed in detail in 14-th part of the cycle. I will give a brief assessment of the results of the cycle. AT A note People's Commissar of Internal Affairs I.V. Stalin, V.M. Molotov and S.K. Tymoshenko was told that the intelligence of the NKVD border guards 1 to 19 April 1941 received data on the arrival of German troops in points adjacent to the state border in East Prussia and the Governor-General. For 19 days, border guard intelligence found arrival before By the age of 18 German divisions.
According to the Intelligence of the General Staff for a somewhat longer period, with 1 to 25 April, there was an increase in the grouping of German troops on 12-15 divisions. NKVD intelligence data for a shorter period indicate a greater number of arriving divisions as compared with the Intelligence Department.
Information about the actual arrival of the German divisions to the border as of 19 or 25 in April could not be found. It is only known that 4 April to 15 May 1941 of the year (per day 32) arrived 24 divisions. Therefore, we can say that the Republic of Moldova from the NKVD border guards also included misinformation thrown by the Germans.
Consider Intelligence Service No. 1 The General Staff Spacecraft Intelligence Directorate on 20-00 22.6.41 G .: "... The total number of enemy groupings is determined by:
a) On the north-western front - 29 divisions (of which ... 4-5 etc.) ...; [According to RM on 1.6.41 there were up to 24 divisions, two of which were two.]
b) On the western front in the Warsaw district of the 31 division (of which ... 4 etc.) ...; [According to the RM there were 30 divisions, of which 4's, etc. The German group has increased by only one division!]
c) On the south-western front (to Slovakia) - 48 divisions (of which ... 6 etc.) ... [According to the RM, there were up to 36 divisions, of which up to 6 were tank divisions. There has been an increase in grouping for the 12 divisions!]
In addition, in Slovakia and Carpathian Ukraine, the number of German troops is 13-15 divisions. In Romania - 33-35 divisions ...
[According to the RM against the KOVO troops, the German group in Slovakia and the Carpathian Ukraine (Hungary) made up the 9 divisions.
Against the troops of the OdVO (Moldavia and Northern Dobrudja) there were 17 divisions, of which 2 was tank. In the central part of Romania and Bulgaria were still on 11 divisions. The reconnaissance report from 22.6.41 indicates the presence of 33-35 German divisions in Romania. It turns out that reconnaissance revealed the "relocation" of 6-8 of new German divisions to the territory of Romania from Bulgaria. This information, like the presence of 33-36 German divisions in Romania, was misinformation.]
Front-line reserves in the area of Czestochowa, Breslau, Mor.Ostravka - to 7 divisions; in the area of Thorn, Bromberg, Poznan the number of divisions of the front reserve has not been established. The reserve of the main command to 20.6 consisted of 17-20 divisions located in the central regions of Germany.
Due to the fact that the June transfer of troops to the east was carried out from the western front, it is necessary to consider that the composition of this reserve has been preserved, especially since further withdrawal of troops is possible from the west for use against the USSR ... ”
22 June military operations on the border with Slovakia and Carpathian Ukraine did not begin. Without German troops in these areas, the number of groups at the border was 125 divisions. Taking into account the troops in Slovakia, Carpathian Ukraine, front reserves and the reserve of the main command, the total number of German divisions was more than 167.
The actual size of the German group at the border of the Soviet Union
In fact, on 22.6.41, the following forces were on the Soviet-German front (including army reserves and army group reserves):
- Army Group (GRA) "North" - 20 infantry, 3 motorized, 3 tank and 3 guard divisions -
total 29 connections;
- GRA "Center" - 31 infantry, 6 motorized, 9 tank, 1 cavalry, 3 security divisions and 1 motorized regiment. Without a motorized shelf - only about 50 divisions. The 900-i motorcycle team was not taken into account in the calculations, since it was still 11 km from the border on 00-22 203 June;
- GRA "South" (including the two divisions of the OKV) - 18 infantry divisions, 4 light infantry divisions, 9 armored and motorized, 2 mountain rifle divisions and 3 security divisions. In Moldova and Northern Dobrogea - 8 infantry divisions. Total - 44 connections.
In total, the Soviet-German border had 123 divisions excluding German troops in Slovakia and Hungary. 123 and 125 divisions are very close and may indicate the successful work of the Soviet intelligence services ... However, their distribution in the Republic of Moldova intelligence services did not correspond to the actual ... And most importantly, they were not located on the border!
It should be noted that by 4 July 1941 was planned to concentrate on the East 13 divisions and 1 brigade from the reserve of the High Command, and after 4 July 11 divisions.
In five parts, we will consider obscure documents about the deployment of German troops near the border, according to intelligence reports, on the basis of which decisions were made on preparing for war. In the title of the subsequent parts will be the word "Intelligence".
Was the German group known to headquarters PribOVO?
The most powerful grouping of German troops as of 22 June was concentrated against the PribOVO troops. How did the dislocation and the number of the German group opposing PribOVO at the district headquarters on the eve of the war be assessed?
The figures below will show fragments of the map. The map in the archive was scanned on a fairly large scale, and with an increase in some of the inscriptions are not very clearly visible. Therefore, the author on the map in blue font additionally marked all the inscriptions and symbols. As illustrations on the fragments, drawings with the actual presence of German troops on the eve of the war are additionally placed.
From the presented materials it is clear that on the northern flank of the German troops stationed in East Prussia and in the territory of the former Poland, the exit of German formations to the border by intelligence was not detected. The actual deployment of German troops does not coincide with the intelligence data.
What is visible from the map? It turns out the headquarters of the corps and the army, when they reported intelligence, still placed on the maps!
Against the PribOVO troops, there is a grouping of a total number: one Army headquarters, up to 4 army corps headquarters, up to 18 infantry divisions, 2 tank and 4 motorized divisions, up to one cavalry division (cavalry brigade, and two cavalry regimental registries and motorized divisions, and one-of-a-kind and three-in-one motorized divisions), and one section of the body, as well as a single-unit cavalry and two cavalry registries, and one-off-one-year-old cavalry divisions; Without artillery regiments, the number of groups is about 25,5 divisions. It should be noted that one of the tank divisions was derived from separate tank units. Very significant grouping! But something confuses ...
first. Against the troops of the district (in the zone of responsibility of his intelligence) are concentrated in the 1 and in the 2 echelon, in the reserves of the army and army group to the 40 divisions!
Second. There is not a single headquarters of tank groups and motorized corps - neither the district command, the command vehicle, nor the leadership of the Soviet Union is known about them! But the leadership of the army and the country know that the Nazis had 10 motorized corps and they used in the war with Poland and in France from 3 to 5 tank groups!
Tank divisions too little - only two with a stretch. Of these, there are only four infantry divisions near the border to the Suwalki bulge! On the Suwalki ledge in the area of responsibility PribOVO even before the 4,5 divisions, including the 2 motorized regiments and not a single tank unit! Total at the border to 8,5 divisions (without tanks). At the same time, the concept “near the border” is rather arbitrary - more than half of them are located at a distance of 20-30 km from the border. For infantry units this is one - two day march! And the information on the map refers to 21 June - less than a day before the start of the war ... The deployment of German troops and the capacity of the roads may indicate that it takes from 1 to 2 days to bring troops to the border ...
If the intelligence is so well informed about the German grouping, then in a day or two, when the German units are relocated to the border, it will be possible to redeploy their units to field positions, withdraw construction battalions from the border, disperse Aviation...
To be continued ...
Information