Voluntary and early. Is all well with the resignation of Nazarbayev?
The message that Nursultan Nazarbayev voluntarily and ahead of time resigned from the powers of the President of Kazakhstan, unnoticed, of course, did not pass. But the general tone of the messages in the Russian media is rather calm: well, one president left, another came, we wish them all good health and continue to monitor how Ukraine is preparing for elections or in the US kicking Trump.
Meanwhile, the event is not just not an ordinary one - it is of utmost importance for our country and, probably, can be decisive for our policy for many years. In this sense, neither the Ukrainian elections, where they choose the next puppet of the United States, who is ready to demolish slaps from any clerk from the American embassy, or even the political situation in Washington, where, with all the complexity, everything is so consistently negative for us, is not much better nor much worse will be gone.
The importance of Kazakhstan for Russia is probably not necessary to prove. Nevertheless, I have to say a few words about this. Kazakhstan is not just a big country. This is also thousands of kilometers of the common border, which historically has not been strengthened in any way. Kazakhstan is in its pure form the “soft underbelly” of Russia, and our “well-being” in the coming years depends in many respects on who sets the rules in this underbelly. The explicit transition of Kazakhstan to the US side will be an unconditional military disaster for Russia, since we are thousands of kilometers open from the south, and in the event of any conflict Russia will instantly turn into a country without a rear - even a tactical one aviation a probable enemy will be able to reach both Omsk and Krasnoyarsk from the Kazakh steppes, for thousands of kilometers to fully control the Trans-Siberian Railway, and so on ...
Of course, in such situations, the figure of the head of a neighboring state is of great importance. On what decisions in the field of security and international cooperation, he will take, depends largely on our well-being. So, the question deserves the closest consideration.
As it is known, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, a career diplomat who worked for many years in the highest government posts of the Republic of Kazakhstan, became the president of Kazakhstan. I think that it will be easy for readers to find a biographical information about him, so I want to focus on some points right away.
The new president of Kazakhstan will perform his duties not for a short period, until the next extraordinary elections, as one would expect, but the entire term of office, which remained to Nursultan Nazarbayev. This allows the Constitution of Kazakhstan.
The next election should take place in about a year, in April 2020. That is, the acting president will have about a year to properly strengthen his leadership position. Considering some of the Central Asian realities, there is not the slightest doubt that by the elections there will be “full consensus” regarding the new president, and he will pick up the traditional 97-98 regions for votes. Of course, there is the experience of neighboring Kyrgyzstan, where "everything is not so simple," but so far there are still more reasons to believe in the first scenario. That is, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev has been in power for a long time - probably twenty to thirty years, most likely.
Nursultan Nazarbayev will retain some important posts in the state, including the post of the head of the ruling party and the lifelong head of the Security Council of Kazakhstan, as well as a member of the Constitutional Council. Also, Nazarbayev retains the status of “Yelbasy” - “the leader of the nation” and the first president — enshrined in the country's laws. Frankly, the author lacks local knowledge to understand how serious the recent titles are. But in addition to everything else, it sounds solid.
But what’s really serious, and what the author’s local knowledge is all about is that Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev almost a year ago made an unexpected statement that Nursultan Nazarbayev would not take part in the 2020 elections of the year. Strictly speaking, this may mean the following: even then, Nazarbayev’s state of health was, to put it mildly, so obviously bad that it was not even his closest entourage who was talking about a new presidential term. In addition, even then, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev felt himself to be the heir authorized to make such statements, because otherwise he would have instantly lost all posts in the state. In Asia, such audacity is not forgiven, if it has not been previously agreed and approved by the highest.
That is, with all our confidence that Nursultan Nazarbayev will continue to exert a stabilizing influence on the situation in Kazakhstan, in reality this influence may end in a few weeks or months - exactly when, due to health reasons, Nazarbayev can no longer appear in front of television cameras. So, it is Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev who is the one we will have to deal with very soon as the real head of Kazakhstan.
The new president of the Republic of Kazakhstan, like the absolute majority of Soviet diplomats, graduated from MGIMO. It is difficult to judge whether this is good or bad - the university itself is rather weak, as we could already see more than once, prepare bad ones, and there’s no need to talk about representatives of regional elites who have been taught there. Still, the Moscow stage in the life of Tokayev should not pass for him for nothing, and we have some hopes that he retained some sympathy for Moscow and Russia.
After gaining independence, he made an incredibly rapid career in Kazakhstan. But this can be explained more likely by a big personnel shortage in the republic, where they were happy to promote any national cadres with relevant specialized education and practical work experience. But the fact that for more than a quarter of a century he managed to stay at the very top of the state pyramid characterizes him as an intelligent and very pragmatic person.
In Kazakhstan, Tokayev is called “the product of Nazarbayev” - he was always on the side of “Elbasy”, always supported him warmly, always pursued a policy that fully agreed with the will of the president. But this, again, can be quite understandable local specifics. Although there is something “local” there - in Moscow there are too many such “statesmen”, so we are not so far from Central Asia in this regard.
In general, it is quite difficult to predict exactly which direction the Kazakh ship will lead its new helmsman. And you need to follow this very closely.
And even more closely, we should monitor the activities in the neighboring territory of the American special services. They now have a great temptation to “try to pick a tooth” for the new president by organizing there another color revolution and putting in his place the now completely loyal to Washington “elbasi”. With all, as they say, flowing ...
Meanwhile, the event is not just not an ordinary one - it is of utmost importance for our country and, probably, can be decisive for our policy for many years. In this sense, neither the Ukrainian elections, where they choose the next puppet of the United States, who is ready to demolish slaps from any clerk from the American embassy, or even the political situation in Washington, where, with all the complexity, everything is so consistently negative for us, is not much better nor much worse will be gone.
The importance of Kazakhstan for Russia is probably not necessary to prove. Nevertheless, I have to say a few words about this. Kazakhstan is not just a big country. This is also thousands of kilometers of the common border, which historically has not been strengthened in any way. Kazakhstan is in its pure form the “soft underbelly” of Russia, and our “well-being” in the coming years depends in many respects on who sets the rules in this underbelly. The explicit transition of Kazakhstan to the US side will be an unconditional military disaster for Russia, since we are thousands of kilometers open from the south, and in the event of any conflict Russia will instantly turn into a country without a rear - even a tactical one aviation a probable enemy will be able to reach both Omsk and Krasnoyarsk from the Kazakh steppes, for thousands of kilometers to fully control the Trans-Siberian Railway, and so on ...
Of course, in such situations, the figure of the head of a neighboring state is of great importance. On what decisions in the field of security and international cooperation, he will take, depends largely on our well-being. So, the question deserves the closest consideration.
As it is known, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, a career diplomat who worked for many years in the highest government posts of the Republic of Kazakhstan, became the president of Kazakhstan. I think that it will be easy for readers to find a biographical information about him, so I want to focus on some points right away.
The new president of Kazakhstan will perform his duties not for a short period, until the next extraordinary elections, as one would expect, but the entire term of office, which remained to Nursultan Nazarbayev. This allows the Constitution of Kazakhstan.
The next election should take place in about a year, in April 2020. That is, the acting president will have about a year to properly strengthen his leadership position. Considering some of the Central Asian realities, there is not the slightest doubt that by the elections there will be “full consensus” regarding the new president, and he will pick up the traditional 97-98 regions for votes. Of course, there is the experience of neighboring Kyrgyzstan, where "everything is not so simple," but so far there are still more reasons to believe in the first scenario. That is, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev has been in power for a long time - probably twenty to thirty years, most likely.
Nursultan Nazarbayev will retain some important posts in the state, including the post of the head of the ruling party and the lifelong head of the Security Council of Kazakhstan, as well as a member of the Constitutional Council. Also, Nazarbayev retains the status of “Yelbasy” - “the leader of the nation” and the first president — enshrined in the country's laws. Frankly, the author lacks local knowledge to understand how serious the recent titles are. But in addition to everything else, it sounds solid.
But what’s really serious, and what the author’s local knowledge is all about is that Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev almost a year ago made an unexpected statement that Nursultan Nazarbayev would not take part in the 2020 elections of the year. Strictly speaking, this may mean the following: even then, Nazarbayev’s state of health was, to put it mildly, so obviously bad that it was not even his closest entourage who was talking about a new presidential term. In addition, even then, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev felt himself to be the heir authorized to make such statements, because otherwise he would have instantly lost all posts in the state. In Asia, such audacity is not forgiven, if it has not been previously agreed and approved by the highest.
That is, with all our confidence that Nursultan Nazarbayev will continue to exert a stabilizing influence on the situation in Kazakhstan, in reality this influence may end in a few weeks or months - exactly when, due to health reasons, Nazarbayev can no longer appear in front of television cameras. So, it is Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev who is the one we will have to deal with very soon as the real head of Kazakhstan.
The new president of the Republic of Kazakhstan, like the absolute majority of Soviet diplomats, graduated from MGIMO. It is difficult to judge whether this is good or bad - the university itself is rather weak, as we could already see more than once, prepare bad ones, and there’s no need to talk about representatives of regional elites who have been taught there. Still, the Moscow stage in the life of Tokayev should not pass for him for nothing, and we have some hopes that he retained some sympathy for Moscow and Russia.
After gaining independence, he made an incredibly rapid career in Kazakhstan. But this can be explained more likely by a big personnel shortage in the republic, where they were happy to promote any national cadres with relevant specialized education and practical work experience. But the fact that for more than a quarter of a century he managed to stay at the very top of the state pyramid characterizes him as an intelligent and very pragmatic person.
In Kazakhstan, Tokayev is called “the product of Nazarbayev” - he was always on the side of “Elbasy”, always supported him warmly, always pursued a policy that fully agreed with the will of the president. But this, again, can be quite understandable local specifics. Although there is something “local” there - in Moscow there are too many such “statesmen”, so we are not so far from Central Asia in this regard.
In general, it is quite difficult to predict exactly which direction the Kazakh ship will lead its new helmsman. And you need to follow this very closely.
And even more closely, we should monitor the activities in the neighboring territory of the American special services. They now have a great temptation to “try to pick a tooth” for the new president by organizing there another color revolution and putting in his place the now completely loyal to Washington “elbasi”. With all, as they say, flowing ...
Information