Meeting in Moscow: Putin did everything he could for Netanyahu
The topics discussed are, of course, well known. Such meetings almost always take place at the initiative of the Israeli side, and the head of the Jewish state conveys to their Russian counterpart their concerns about strengthening Iran’s positions in Syria and strengthening Syria’s air defense with modern Russian systems.
The current meeting was no exception. The Israeli Prime Minister announced the intention to get the President of the Russian Federation to assist in the “de-ordination” of the Syrian Arab Republic on the eve of the meeting.
And to all appearances, in a certain sense he succeeded in this - a message was spread in the Russian and Israeli press about the creation by Moscow and Jerusalem of a joint working group for the withdrawal of foreign forces from the territory of the Arab Republic. The decision was reached at a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu.
What kind of troops are we talking about? Tel Aviv, as is known, is seeking to oust from the territory of the ATS detachments of the Lebanese resistance of Hezbollah, the Iranian formations and their proxies (for example, the Afghan Shiites). Russia is interested in the removal from Syria of American, French and British formations supporting the rebels and destabilizing the situation in the country. In addition, there are also Turkish troops. Finally, the actual Russian military contingent.
This is not counting the gangs of foreign mercenaries, terrorists and insurgents, whom it is difficult to consider as troops.
Who, exactly, is the Russian-Israeli group going to “pull out”? Tel Aviv, of course, advocates the withdrawal of the Iranians and their proxies. But what is the interest of our country? Indeed, throughout the Syrian campaign, they were the uncompromising fighters against the terrorists, our allies and comrades in arms. It is known that the SSO units successfully interacted with the Hezbollah fighters - brave and professional soldiers.
And today this war, no matter what the politicians say, is far from over. This is also because the western occupiers helping the insurgents remain on the Syrian land (it is extremely difficult to assume that Israel will seek their withdrawal). In this situation, it is hardly advisable for the Kremlin to betray (if you call a spade a spade) your few allies.
Our relations with Iran, as experts point out, are ambiguous. So, for objective reasons, this country is our competitor in the global energy market. In addition, Tehran clearly traces geopolitical interests in Transcaucasia, which is a zone of our influence. However, everything is not easy. After all, the interaction of Iran and Armenia, which has no common border with Russia, ensures to Yerevan, our ally in the South Caucasus, stability and communication with the outside world, even if Georgia blocks communication with this republic, as has already happened.
Actually, it is not necessary to expect anything else with respect to a country claiming regional leadership, whose interests cannot always coincide with ours. However, it should be noted that our countries, in addition to participating in the situational Syrian counterterrorism alliance, are linked to very long-term programs of both an economic and geopolitical nature, which are hardly worth the risk.
There is reason to speak, if not of differences, then of the different views of Moscow and Tehran on certain aspects of the Syrian problem. And most likely, the Kremlin would like to somewhat weaken the influence of Iran on Damascus. But how weak and at what cost?
Recall that in 2010, during the period of his presidency, Dmitry Medvedev refused to fulfill the already concluded contracts for the supply of anti-aircraft missile systems C-300 to Iran, and also prohibited the transfer of armored vehicles, combat aircraft, helicopters and ships.
What bonuses for this Moscow received from Israel and the United States, in whose interests this decision was made, is unknown, but the fact that it deprived its military-industrial complex of legal profits received a penalty of $ 4 billion, compromised itself as a bona fide supplier and seriously spoiled relationship with an important partner, obviously.
Today, the consequences of this strange step by Dmitry Medvedev (his references to the UN Security Council sanctions are untenable, since the ban did not apply to ground-to-air missiles) have been overcome, the air defense system has been delivered to Tehran. But sediment, of course, remained.
As you know, in the Syrian tragedy, Israel was on the other side of the barricades. He supported anti-government speeches in the SAR, and not only morally. Syrian sources have repeatedly accused Tel Aviv of supplying gangs with weapons and equipment. Israeli media reported that wounded Syrian militants are being treated in hospitals of the Jewish state. Moreover, they reported on the actions of the Israeli special forces in the territory of the SAR, without going into details, however, what tasks he performed there. To this can be added the attacks of the IDF on the positions of the CAA. All this gives reason to believe that Israel is quite closely involved in the Syrian conflict, although Tel Aviv denies this.
In light of this, a logical question arises: what is the point of Russia helping Israel, which is also a true ally of our main geopolitical opponent - the United States? Moreover, such assistance can lead to the actual collapse of the “Syrian trio” - the alliance of Russia, Iran and Turkey, and the loss of most of our achievements in Syria.
In order to risk so much and to stake so much, we need very good reasons, good reasons. Of course, it is difficult to suspect Tel Aviv of its readiness to take the place of Iran in the counter-terrorist coalition, to participate in the reconstruction of the destroyed country and to buy Russian weapons.
Strictly speaking, Israel cannot offer something that could compensate us for the numerous losses - political, economic, geopolitical from interaction with Iran.
Today, both in Tehran and in Tel Aviv, they talk a lot about the threat of the great Middle Eastern war between Israel and Iran. In particular, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, in a speech at the Munich Conference, declared the high risk of the Iranian-Israeli war and called on the world community to intervene to prevent the conflict from escalating.
In turn, Israel accuses Iran of intending to attack and destroy the Jewish state, and claims that the Iranian SAR is preparing a springboard for a ground invasion, which should follow a massive missile strike.
Obviously, a similar war, had it happened, would have caused terrible damage to the interests and plans of Moscow in the Middle East. However, its threat is not a reason for a break with Iran, especially since the danger is greatly exaggerated.
Indeed, in the event of Iran’s attack on Israel, the first will be drawn alone in a conflict not only against the United States (which will have to intervene), but also of the entire Western world. Tehran has always demonstrated pragmatism and common sense, and therefore there is no reason to expect him to suicidal behavior. It should be noted that even with quite specific strikes by the Israeli Air Force against the Iranians in Syria, Tehran responds only with angry statements.
It is also unlikely that Israel, even with the United States and the oil monarchies, is attacking Iran. Since Iran has powerful enough armed forces and irregular formations to inflict unacceptable damage to the aggressor. Therefore, Tel Aviv and Washington will continue to wage a proxy war against Tehran, using terrorists and separatists, and also increase international pressure on it.
So what then was in Moscow, what do the agreements reached mean? And most likely, nothing, if we talk about the actual Syrian affairs.
However, it is necessary to take into account the fact that Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu are linked if not by friendship, then by quite normal personal relations. They understand each other well, they know how to negotiate.
It is well known that the Russian president as a professional intelligence officer, who, as we know, are not former, is trying to build informal relations with his foreign colleagues, including providing personal services to them.
It was for such a personal service that Netanyahu most likely arrived. Putin’s support on the eve of the April 9 parliamentary elections is crucial to him. He is opposed by Beni Ganz, who has considerable support from the electorate.
In addition, the Israeli Prosecutor General’s Office is preparing to charge the Prime Minister with corruption and abuse of his official position. Now, many Israeli media write that Benjamin Netanyahu will soon go to jail.
Against the background of these events, his “triumphant” arrival from Moscow (the agreement reached on setting up a working group with a certain dexterity can be interpreted as Putin’s guarantees to remove the Iranians and Hezbollah from Syria), where he managed to curb the “Iranian danger”, to a large extent and bloated, somewhat strengthens his shaky position. And increases the chances of winning. After which all this will not have such a value.
At the same time, Netanyahu himself hardly harbors illusions about the “working group” and its prospects. He can not understand that Tel Aviv in the Syrian war put on the side of those who were the losers, and therefore he has to significantly limit their Wishlist.
Strictly speaking, Putin did everything he could for Netanyahu. Moreover, even a purely formal statement about the “working group” is likely to cause some tension in Tehran.
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