Consequences of the collapse of the INF Treaty. Nigeria with a nuclear bomb?
Reading various comments in the world media and among the analytical community about the scrapping of the INF Treaty regime by both superpowers, and especially about the retaliatory measures announced by the Russian Federation, you sometimes come across something unusual.
In general, all opinions are within the standard. The Western press mainly denounces Russia, which supposedly violated the Treaty first (that which both parties violated to one degree or another, does not fit into their media standard). There are those who are worried about the fact that now their tender carcasses will be under the gun of metal monsters from the cozy containers of our mobile launchers. At the same time, they accuse the United States (usually Trump personally) of what happened, call for dialogue and ask Russia to take the first steps towards. Apparently, you need to "disarm before the party", pay and repent, as the Americans want? In the minority are people who understand that the Treaty, by and large, Russia is not particularly needed now (we are talking about a real ins and outs, and not about a public position for world peace, which is far from "real politicians"), and that these calls in vain, and Russia will not make concessions under external pressure ever. And those who think that the extremely aggressive and stupid US policy is constantly to blame for everything, constantly provoking and hurting Russia and wondering at the “unexpected” reaction when they start to crawl out of Russia in response Tanks and rockets. And when the United States itself is in a worse place than before breaking the next pillar of the existing contractual system of the situation. As was the case with DFID, as was the case with hypersound, and as will be with the INF Treaty. The media and analysts of allied and friendly powers like China, India or Iran, as a rule, take anti-American positions.
But mind perturbed not only among analysts and journalists in Eurasia or North America. The DSRMD and its demise are discussed even in Africa, and not only in North and Arab Africa, where the aforementioned medium-range gifts can fly, and in general they are much more tied in the big game of superpowers and great powers, and in European affairs in particular. The fate of the Treaty worries even representatives of “black” Africa, in particular, to the media of one of the largest countries in Africa, Nigeria, this question has reached.
Got a curious article on the Nigerian resource This Day. It is called the US Withdrawal of the INF Treaty: The American way out and the Russian suspension of the INF Treaty: implications for Nigeria. True, the heading is a bit inaccurate: so far both parties have suspended the Treaty and warned each other about a possible withdrawal from it after six months, as is required by the Treaty.
For the most part, the material consists of a retelling for the reader of the history of the Treaty, its implementation, as well as claims arising from the parties to each other. By the way, mainly the American, the author mentioned about the Russians briefly, but quite objectively, that it was Russia that was acting in response, and not the United States, on the issue of terminating the INF. The Nigerian author is also worried about the START-3 Treaty, which ends in 2021 and may not be renewed. But the most interesting, in general, as often happens, was placed at the end of the material. How was it? "The last phrase is remembered - it was Stirlitz that he derived for himself, like mathematical proof."
We quote:
Further, the author refers to the fate of the INF Treaty and recalls that a conference on the operation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is to be held in a year and is asking the new leadership of the country what it will be like.
We quote:
The author then turns to stories, recalling that a nuclear state was already on the black continent, even if it was unofficial and extremely nuclear (the 12 bombs they had, this is not potential, of course), but nuclear is South Africa in the apartheid era. When South Africa was the strongest state in the black part of Africa, it had well-trained and motivated forces, strong defense capabilities, etc. A good military-industrial complex has been preserved even now, but only memories remain from the power of the Yuarovo army. Like nuclear weapons. Now, they say, South Africa is, like Nigeria, a consistent proponent of nuclear disarmament, but, according to the author, knowledge of how to make nuclear weapons is not forgotten there. What, in general, raises doubts - the creators of the nuclear potential of this country either died long ago, or, for the most part, left the country.
Once again, we turn to the article:
The "nuclear manifesto" of the future first black nuclear power! Then the author refers to examples of other nuclear powers: both the “great” powers of the “big five”, but not the superpowers of the Russian Federation and the USA, and the following nuclear countries, such as India, Pakistan or the DPRK. They say that they have acquired a nuclear missile potential, despite the opposition of the superpowers and the world community, and now they have honor and respect. In principle, the striking metamorphosis in relation to the United States to the DPRK after testing that thermonuclear munition (or with tritium amplification is not so important) and the first successful launches are very clumsy yet, but the ICBM is very revealing. In Nigeria, everyone understood. It was Kim Jong-un not understand who, an outcast, a beast in human form, who shot out of a rapid-fire howitzer, shooting from the hip, generals and former mistresses, and now a respected partner in negotiations with Donald Trump.
It should be noted that such talks about nuclear weapons are not only among journalists in Nigeria, but also among the military, and, obviously, on the sidelines of political. Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa (it is larger than the economy of South Africa, which, as we remember, is included in the BRICS), the country's population is more than a couple of tens of millions of Russia, the country produces the most oil on the continent. That is, money, in general, can be found on a military nuclear program.
The Nigerian Armed Forces have an extremely solid number for the region (and indeed for the degradants from the European part of NATO) - more than 230 thousand. In the land forces there are 8 divisions (1 tank, 4), 1 parachute and 2 amphibious, 250 tanks (NIHXXX72), NIHXX1, NKHXX, NXXX, NXXX, NXXX all sides of the world (there are Russia, and the United States, and Britain, and Ukraine, and South Africa and China are represented by their products), around 3 artillery systems and other weapons. The Air Force, however, is rather weak - the X-NUMX F-55NI and JF-30 fighters from China, the 1600 Alfa-Jet attack aircraft, the Screw Super-Tucano helmets, several dozen L-400 training machines are ordered. and MB-15, etc. The helicopter fleet includes about 7 machines, in particular, there are Russian attack helicopters Mi-17M, more than a dozen. There is also a fleet in which various patrol and rocket boats predominate, but recently two new Chinese corvettes of the Type-12 export variant have been purchased. In general, against the background of the neighbors, this army looks quite solid, trained and armed, but to the level of Middle Eastern or North African, say, armies (like Algeria) is extremely far away. However, in recent years, the country's leadership has been paying more and more attention to the re-equipment of its Armed Forces. That, in general, does not help them to cope with terrorists, inflicting occasionally offensive and painful defeats. Perhaps, before thinking about nuclear potential, would it be worthwhile for ordinary aircraft to bring it to the desired state?
There is a desire to acquire nuclear power plants - now we are talking about the construction of the first power unit by the middle of the next decade (Rosatom will design and build). The country really needs nuclear power plants, because, they say, even with gas for power plants sometimes problems arise (sabotage by terrorists from Boko-Haram, a branch of the ISIL banned in Russia), and in general the country lacks energy. The uranium deposit is also present in the country - it was discovered not so long ago by Chinese geologists in the area of the city of Idomi, and it is claimed (which is not necessarily true) that there is a lot of uranium ore. However, there are other known deposits.
There is also a nuclear research potential. So, there is a research reactor in the country, supplied at one time by China, which worked on uranium of a very high, almost “bomb” level of enrichment — in excess of 90% the proportion of U235. The same reactors at one time the Chinese have sold to Iran, Syria, Ghana and Pakistan. However, last year this reactor was upgraded with a transfer to low-enriched schemes, and more than 1kg of fuel was exported to China, under the supervision and with technical assistance of specialists from Russia, the USA, China and the Czech Republic. Scientists and future nuclear engineers are studying in Russian universities (for example, in Tomsk), in China and not only there.
Theoretically, by investing certain funds, by hiring scientists and specialists from a number of countries, by providing, of course, a certain cover for this activity from ubiquitous intelligence services, a nuclear program can be implemented. For how long - it is pointless to discuss this, and it is not so important. Another thing is important - even a state that cannot cope with terrorists on its territory, which has a lot of problems and a sufficiently poor population, even then began to think about getting even a small, but nuclear club. Seeing how the system of ensuring strategic stability collapses, seeing how another “supporting column” collapses under the roof of a general security building, looking at how the US is easily prepared to step over another agreement (as a rule, having given up its leg, as a rule) - and such countries begin to think about their safety and its security. And in the end, that they, too, can act the way they want - if others can.
It is curious that the author refers to both Venezuela and the epic around it. Of course, in Nigeria’s oil, Washington’s desire to seize Venezuela’s oil reserves was keenly perceived, and they are well aware that the next self-proclaimed clown in a suit, who had studied in the US, would be black only if they wanted. There is also an understanding that if Venezuela itself is not a gift and is capable of giving it its teeth, and for it there is someone to intercede - there is Russia, there is China, if, of course, they consider the intervention necessary and receive the corresponding request of the legitimate government, But for Nigeria there may not be anyone willing, but they have a lot of oil too.
Interestingly, do Americans really want to live in peace with a dozen nuclear powers and holders? Moreover, 90% of these countries will strive to acquire the potential to reach exactly the "glittering city on the hill," as Reagan called them. Is it safer for them to live?
In general, all opinions are within the standard. The Western press mainly denounces Russia, which supposedly violated the Treaty first (that which both parties violated to one degree or another, does not fit into their media standard). There are those who are worried about the fact that now their tender carcasses will be under the gun of metal monsters from the cozy containers of our mobile launchers. At the same time, they accuse the United States (usually Trump personally) of what happened, call for dialogue and ask Russia to take the first steps towards. Apparently, you need to "disarm before the party", pay and repent, as the Americans want? In the minority are people who understand that the Treaty, by and large, Russia is not particularly needed now (we are talking about a real ins and outs, and not about a public position for world peace, which is far from "real politicians"), and that these calls in vain, and Russia will not make concessions under external pressure ever. And those who think that the extremely aggressive and stupid US policy is constantly to blame for everything, constantly provoking and hurting Russia and wondering at the “unexpected” reaction when they start to crawl out of Russia in response Tanks and rockets. And when the United States itself is in a worse place than before breaking the next pillar of the existing contractual system of the situation. As was the case with DFID, as was the case with hypersound, and as will be with the INF Treaty. The media and analysts of allied and friendly powers like China, India or Iran, as a rule, take anti-American positions.
But mind perturbed not only among analysts and journalists in Eurasia or North America. The DSRMD and its demise are discussed even in Africa, and not only in North and Arab Africa, where the aforementioned medium-range gifts can fly, and in general they are much more tied in the big game of superpowers and great powers, and in European affairs in particular. The fate of the Treaty worries even representatives of “black” Africa, in particular, to the media of one of the largest countries in Africa, Nigeria, this question has reached.
Got a curious article on the Nigerian resource This Day. It is called the US Withdrawal of the INF Treaty: The American way out and the Russian suspension of the INF Treaty: implications for Nigeria. True, the heading is a bit inaccurate: so far both parties have suspended the Treaty and warned each other about a possible withdrawal from it after six months, as is required by the Treaty.
For the most part, the material consists of a retelling for the reader of the history of the Treaty, its implementation, as well as claims arising from the parties to each other. By the way, mainly the American, the author mentioned about the Russians briefly, but quite objectively, that it was Russia that was acting in response, and not the United States, on the issue of terminating the INF. The Nigerian author is also worried about the START-3 Treaty, which ends in 2021 and may not be renewed. But the most interesting, in general, as often happens, was placed at the end of the material. How was it? "The last phrase is remembered - it was Stirlitz that he derived for himself, like mathematical proof."
We quote:
The accusations of one superpower of the other, as well as counterclaims, are nothing more than a policy that all African countries, especially Nigeria, must pay special attention to for various reasons. Strategic Arms Treaty (SALT-1 and SALT-2), Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty weapons, as well as various agreements on nuclear and non-nuclear weapons signed by the great powers and many countries of the world, are fraudulent agreements (!!!) deliberately concluded by powerful countries to create an impression on the whole world that they are very interested in maintaining international peace and security, but this is not always the case.
Considering that the truth is that when weapons become obsolete in light of the development of new systems, the great powers quickly get together and negotiate, and also sign agreements that will only destroy unnecessary weapons, but not stop the development of a new and more powerful weapons.
And, unfortunately, developing countries consciously denied the sovereign right to access to the development of nuclear potential under the pretext of their inability and ability to manage the consequences of their use. The extent to which powerful nuclear powers allow non-nuclear countries to develop their nuclear potential is limited only by peaceful use, even if the processes of developing nuclear potential for the purposes of war and peace are the same.
Considering that the truth is that when weapons become obsolete in light of the development of new systems, the great powers quickly get together and negotiate, and also sign agreements that will only destroy unnecessary weapons, but not stop the development of a new and more powerful weapons.
And, unfortunately, developing countries consciously denied the sovereign right to access to the development of nuclear potential under the pretext of their inability and ability to manage the consequences of their use. The extent to which powerful nuclear powers allow non-nuclear countries to develop their nuclear potential is limited only by peaceful use, even if the processes of developing nuclear potential for the purposes of war and peace are the same.
Further, the author refers to the fate of the INF Treaty and recalls that a conference on the operation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is to be held in a year and is asking the new leadership of the country what it will be like.
We quote:
In connection with all this, the question arises: where are (what is their position) Nigeria and the whole of Africa? Why should some countries assign the right to develop nuclear weapons to the detriment of others? The possibility of a third world war is no longer excluded. In the case of a new world war, where, in what camp or in what situation, will African countries end up? Will African countries be free from nuclear strikes? What is the reality and what should be the right approach to international nonproliferation policy?
The author then turns to stories, recalling that a nuclear state was already on the black continent, even if it was unofficial and extremely nuclear (the 12 bombs they had, this is not potential, of course), but nuclear is South Africa in the apartheid era. When South Africa was the strongest state in the black part of Africa, it had well-trained and motivated forces, strong defense capabilities, etc. A good military-industrial complex has been preserved even now, but only memories remain from the power of the Yuarovo army. Like nuclear weapons. Now, they say, South Africa is, like Nigeria, a consistent proponent of nuclear disarmament, but, according to the author, knowledge of how to make nuclear weapons is not forgotten there. What, in general, raises doubts - the creators of the nuclear potential of this country either died long ago, or, for the most part, left the country.
Once again, we turn to the article:
International politics is the protection of national interests through diplomacy through negotiation or "gunboat diplomacy." The country is either fighting for the right to join the nuclear-weapon states, or it assumes the role of satellites, geopolitical objects and dependents. There is no average between these two options.
Unfortunately, the current position of Nigeria is that of dependent satellites, which does not guarantee and cannot guarantee national security in the event of a new international fire. Because of Nigeria’s foreign policy towards Africa, because its economy is the largest, and the population the most populous, there is no compelling reason that the Nigerian military should not be the best in quantitative and qualitative terms. The Nigerian army must be the strongest in all areas. With regard to conventional weapons and nuclear arsenals, under no circumstances should Nigeria lag behind or be dependent. If possessing a nuclear weapon can be useful for some countries, it should also be useful for Nigeria. There should be no compelling reason to stop or hinder the scientific development of Nigeria, especially as a new cold war is being prepared. The Nigerian non-alignment policy should be largely based on armed forces capable of nuclear potential. Nigeria should strive to become a nuclear weapon state. So Nigeria can win international respect.
Unfortunately, the current position of Nigeria is that of dependent satellites, which does not guarantee and cannot guarantee national security in the event of a new international fire. Because of Nigeria’s foreign policy towards Africa, because its economy is the largest, and the population the most populous, there is no compelling reason that the Nigerian military should not be the best in quantitative and qualitative terms. The Nigerian army must be the strongest in all areas. With regard to conventional weapons and nuclear arsenals, under no circumstances should Nigeria lag behind or be dependent. If possessing a nuclear weapon can be useful for some countries, it should also be useful for Nigeria. There should be no compelling reason to stop or hinder the scientific development of Nigeria, especially as a new cold war is being prepared. The Nigerian non-alignment policy should be largely based on armed forces capable of nuclear potential. Nigeria should strive to become a nuclear weapon state. So Nigeria can win international respect.
The "nuclear manifesto" of the future first black nuclear power! Then the author refers to examples of other nuclear powers: both the “great” powers of the “big five”, but not the superpowers of the Russian Federation and the USA, and the following nuclear countries, such as India, Pakistan or the DPRK. They say that they have acquired a nuclear missile potential, despite the opposition of the superpowers and the world community, and now they have honor and respect. In principle, the striking metamorphosis in relation to the United States to the DPRK after testing that thermonuclear munition (or with tritium amplification is not so important) and the first successful launches are very clumsy yet, but the ICBM is very revealing. In Nigeria, everyone understood. It was Kim Jong-un not understand who, an outcast, a beast in human form, who shot out of a rapid-fire howitzer, shooting from the hip, generals and former mistresses, and now a respected partner in negotiations with Donald Trump.
It should be noted that such talks about nuclear weapons are not only among journalists in Nigeria, but also among the military, and, obviously, on the sidelines of political. Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa (it is larger than the economy of South Africa, which, as we remember, is included in the BRICS), the country's population is more than a couple of tens of millions of Russia, the country produces the most oil on the continent. That is, money, in general, can be found on a military nuclear program.
The Nigerian Armed Forces have an extremely solid number for the region (and indeed for the degradants from the European part of NATO) - more than 230 thousand. In the land forces there are 8 divisions (1 tank, 4), 1 parachute and 2 amphibious, 250 tanks (NIHXXX72), NIHXX1, NKHXX, NXXX, NXXX, NXXX all sides of the world (there are Russia, and the United States, and Britain, and Ukraine, and South Africa and China are represented by their products), around 3 artillery systems and other weapons. The Air Force, however, is rather weak - the X-NUMX F-55NI and JF-30 fighters from China, the 1600 Alfa-Jet attack aircraft, the Screw Super-Tucano helmets, several dozen L-400 training machines are ordered. and MB-15, etc. The helicopter fleet includes about 7 machines, in particular, there are Russian attack helicopters Mi-17M, more than a dozen. There is also a fleet in which various patrol and rocket boats predominate, but recently two new Chinese corvettes of the Type-12 export variant have been purchased. In general, against the background of the neighbors, this army looks quite solid, trained and armed, but to the level of Middle Eastern or North African, say, armies (like Algeria) is extremely far away. However, in recent years, the country's leadership has been paying more and more attention to the re-equipment of its Armed Forces. That, in general, does not help them to cope with terrorists, inflicting occasionally offensive and painful defeats. Perhaps, before thinking about nuclear potential, would it be worthwhile for ordinary aircraft to bring it to the desired state?
There is a desire to acquire nuclear power plants - now we are talking about the construction of the first power unit by the middle of the next decade (Rosatom will design and build). The country really needs nuclear power plants, because, they say, even with gas for power plants sometimes problems arise (sabotage by terrorists from Boko-Haram, a branch of the ISIL banned in Russia), and in general the country lacks energy. The uranium deposit is also present in the country - it was discovered not so long ago by Chinese geologists in the area of the city of Idomi, and it is claimed (which is not necessarily true) that there is a lot of uranium ore. However, there are other known deposits.
There is also a nuclear research potential. So, there is a research reactor in the country, supplied at one time by China, which worked on uranium of a very high, almost “bomb” level of enrichment — in excess of 90% the proportion of U235. The same reactors at one time the Chinese have sold to Iran, Syria, Ghana and Pakistan. However, last year this reactor was upgraded with a transfer to low-enriched schemes, and more than 1kg of fuel was exported to China, under the supervision and with technical assistance of specialists from Russia, the USA, China and the Czech Republic. Scientists and future nuclear engineers are studying in Russian universities (for example, in Tomsk), in China and not only there.
Theoretically, by investing certain funds, by hiring scientists and specialists from a number of countries, by providing, of course, a certain cover for this activity from ubiquitous intelligence services, a nuclear program can be implemented. For how long - it is pointless to discuss this, and it is not so important. Another thing is important - even a state that cannot cope with terrorists on its territory, which has a lot of problems and a sufficiently poor population, even then began to think about getting even a small, but nuclear club. Seeing how the system of ensuring strategic stability collapses, seeing how another “supporting column” collapses under the roof of a general security building, looking at how the US is easily prepared to step over another agreement (as a rule, having given up its leg, as a rule) - and such countries begin to think about their safety and its security. And in the end, that they, too, can act the way they want - if others can.
It is curious that the author refers to both Venezuela and the epic around it. Of course, in Nigeria’s oil, Washington’s desire to seize Venezuela’s oil reserves was keenly perceived, and they are well aware that the next self-proclaimed clown in a suit, who had studied in the US, would be black only if they wanted. There is also an understanding that if Venezuela itself is not a gift and is capable of giving it its teeth, and for it there is someone to intercede - there is Russia, there is China, if, of course, they consider the intervention necessary and receive the corresponding request of the legitimate government, But for Nigeria there may not be anyone willing, but they have a lot of oil too.
Interestingly, do Americans really want to live in peace with a dozen nuclear powers and holders? Moreover, 90% of these countries will strive to acquire the potential to reach exactly the "glittering city on the hill," as Reagan called them. Is it safer for them to live?
Information