Fire, water and aluminum pipes
Recent ones news From the aluminum front, the experts (and before them the stockbrokers) were unequivocally regarded as positive for Oleg Deripaska. And let him personally remain under sanctions, the business can continue to work. For the benefit of Russia or someone else - this, in our opinion, alas, is not so important. Why? Yes, because before, under a different shareholder scenario, the real affiliation of Russian Aluminum, like the other structures of the oligarch that fell under the American press, caused serious doubts. And the point here is not only and not so much the fact that all this business has long and seriously been painted offshore.
We have already talked about how and under what conditions the owner of the Rusal group, Oleg Deripaska, was able to negotiate with the US Treasury about the lifting of sanctions from their assets. ("Deripaska out of the game"24.12.2018). The share of the oligarch in the management structure of the En + holding has decreased from approximately 70 to 44,95%. In addition, Deripaska left the board of directors of En + and UC Rusal, and with it both the CEOs of the companies and seven board members nominated by a Russian businessman.
They told you to share!
More than a month has passed, and disputes around the deal do not subside, and opposite commentators dominate among the commentators. The first is that changes in Rusal are not so much a serious blow to the oligarch’s business as a dangerous precedent that threatens Russia's economic sovereignty. In fact, the country's aluminum industry and a hefty piece of Russian energy are transferred to the management of foreigners, mainly representatives of the USA and the UK, and their activities will be fully controlled and accountable to the US Treasury. Overseas observers close to the Trump administration also tend to assess the consequences of the Rusal deal as very serious, only, of course, with a plus sign.
Another point of view is that the outcome of negotiations on the lifting of sanctions from Rusal is just a smoke screen, which is intended to hide the preservation of the status quo behind harsh language. In Russia, this view is shared by the adherents of the notorious concept of the “cunning plans of the Kremlin.” It has always been distinguished by the fact that any actions of the Russian authorities, including dubious and even blatantly failures, are part of a brilliant multi-way combination, which ultimately will lead to a crushing victory of our side and the shame of enemies.
In the US, Democrats and Trump's non-party haters usually come to the same conclusion lately. They are sure that the White House’s master only imitates powerful pressure on Moscow, but in fact he is indulging the Russian president in everything, and the case of sanctions against Rusal is a vivid example. Supporters of this view, for example, former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, primarily point to the fact that Deripaska transfers part of his shares to the state bank VTB, which, in turn, is under sanctions itself. According to critics, this proves that the alignment of forces in Rusal does not really change.
But, as we noted in the previous publication, the main result of the transaction is not to change the shares, but to lose control and control. Now, literally every gesture of the Russian corporation will have to be coordinated with the US authorities. As for VTB, the bank does not have the right to vote with a shareholding to it. All decisions in Rusal are made by people who are not connected in any way not only with Deripaska, but also with the Russian authorities. In particular, En + and Rusal will no longer be able to change registration without permission from Washington, although both companies previously planned to “move” from the island of Jersey to the domestic offshore on Russky Island.
However, transatlantic critics of the deal keep up the pressure. Last week, a comment in the spirit of "Trump with Putin was deceived of all" appeared in the New York Times. His author aspirated, informs that the editors have some kind of confidential document that has not been published before and contains unknown information about the change in the corporate structure of Rusal.
However, nothing fundamentally new edition reports, besides the fact that a month has been discussed by the business press. From the unprincipled worth noting two points. So, according to the New York Times, in exchange for shares that will go to VTB, Deripaska will write off debts to the bank. But this is a predictable step. In the last publication, we assumed that the oligarch should be compensated for the refusal of part of the property. It is logical that such was the cancellation of debt on the loan.
Also, according to NYT, Deripaska, his Free Business Foundation, his ex-spouse Polina Yumasheva, her father and those close to this family of Orange Capital will, under the terms of a “secret” agreement, belong to almost 57% En +. But in any case, this is still not the old 70%, but the key value, we repeat, in this scenario, it is not the question of ownership, but of management.
Almost at the same time, Bloomberg presented the opposite viewpoint of the expert of the Atlantic Council, Brian O'Toole, who oversaw the issues of sanctions in the Obama administration. Bloomberg describes him as a “Putin critic”. We quote:
There are a number of signs that make it possible to judge that the Rusal deal is not at all a game of giveaway. To begin with, the lifting of sanctions is beneficial not only to Deripaska and Rusal. Discriminatory measures hit Alcoa and other US companies that were hit by aluminum price spikes and market destabilization.
The negotiations cost Deripaska a lump sum and was worth a lot of effort. To protect its interests, Rusal hired the investment bank Rothschild & Co, as well as a number of reputable PR services and law firms. Despite the strongest lobbying support, the negotiation process went very unevenly. The oligarch and his assets came under US sanctions in April 2018, and in May Deripaska expressed his readiness to meet Washington's demands, agreeing, along with a number of his representatives, to leave the holding's management.
In late July, the US Treasury Department received from Rusal the final version of the plan to fulfill its requirements. It would seem that a deal on the ointment, to which the market responded, where the shares of the aluminum giant soared. However, just a week later, Deripaska announced the counter-conditions put forward by the American Ministry of Finance, “bonded,” saying that Washington’s proposals were “unacceptable and devoid of economic sense.” Details were not specified. In mid-September, the US Treasury formulated new parameters for lifting the sanctions, obviously more compromise, however, negotiations continued for another three months.
His example is another science
The personnel shifts dictated from Washington are also quite remarkable. The chairman of the board of directors of En +, former Minister of Energy of the United Kingdom, Lord Greg Barker, expectedly remained in his post, but the chairman of the board of directors of Rusal, the German Matthias Warnig, had to resign. Meanwhile, Herr Warnig is known as “a great friend of our country” and especially its president since Putin’s service in the GDR. The dismissal on the orders of the Americans Warnig could not pass without pain for the Kremlin and its inhabitants.
Matthias Warnig could well have suffered for the active support of not only Rusal, but also Nord Stream-2.
As a peculiar reaction of a certain part of the Russian elite to the situation around Rusal, one can also consider the recent appearance in the media space of Oleg Deripaska’s talks with his closest aides. It is very difficult to imagine that such a drain occurred without the participation of the special services and the high command of the high authorities.
Well, very high stakes are at stake. The agreement between the founder of "Rusal" and the Ministry of Finance of the United States goes far beyond the fate of the specific assets of a single oligarch. A very remarkable statement was made at the end of last year on the pages of The Wall Street Journal by a former official of the US Treasury Department David Murray, who said: “This deal can become a roadmap for other companies that want to get out of the restrictions and believe that they are not involved in illegal actions.
It seems that in Moscow many high-ranking officials share this approach. Russian officials, starting with First Deputy Prime Minister Anton Siluanov, did not hide their support and direct participation in the negotiations with Washington on the issue of Rusal. In this regard, in a new light, there is a recent incident that happened in Davos with Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin. The minister was likened to Professor Pleischner from 17 Moments of Spring, with which the Swiss sweet air of freedom played a cruel joke. The official, having appeared among his own ones, has become soft and mentioned that the government is secretly preparing several transactions for the privatization of state-owned companies, including those with the participation of foreign capital. And at the same time, that officially no sale of significant state assets is foreseen in the foreseeable future.
Maxim Oreshkin. Journalists continue to guess who stands behind the youngest Russian minister
Probably the ultimate goal of these secret negotiations is not privatization by itself, but the withdrawal of the subsidiaries of Gazprom, Rosneft, or Rostec from the sanctions. According to the Rusal model, in accordance with the road map outlined - with a change in ownership structure and transfer of control. Of course, this pretty smacks of burglary with burglary and frank surrender. True, it happened a long time ago. Inclusion in the global market in the role of a notorious outsider, doomed to play by someone else's rules, meant that any more or less visible domestic company to some extent becomes independent of Russian laws.
The situation with the US sanctions only exposed the situation in which our officials, under pressure or threat of such, readily recognize the rule of the “older brother”, in the hope of retaining their part of control over the economy and financial flows. In the same way as the situation around Crimea, from which big business shies away, like the devil from incense, with the full connivance of the authorities, clearly demonstrated how much Russia’s sovereignty is in reality.
Having removed the head, they do not cry through the hair.
We have already talked about how and under what conditions the owner of the Rusal group, Oleg Deripaska, was able to negotiate with the US Treasury about the lifting of sanctions from their assets. ("Deripaska out of the game"24.12.2018). The share of the oligarch in the management structure of the En + holding has decreased from approximately 70 to 44,95%. In addition, Deripaska left the board of directors of En + and UC Rusal, and with it both the CEOs of the companies and seven board members nominated by a Russian businessman.
They told you to share!
More than a month has passed, and disputes around the deal do not subside, and opposite commentators dominate among the commentators. The first is that changes in Rusal are not so much a serious blow to the oligarch’s business as a dangerous precedent that threatens Russia's economic sovereignty. In fact, the country's aluminum industry and a hefty piece of Russian energy are transferred to the management of foreigners, mainly representatives of the USA and the UK, and their activities will be fully controlled and accountable to the US Treasury. Overseas observers close to the Trump administration also tend to assess the consequences of the Rusal deal as very serious, only, of course, with a plus sign.
Another point of view is that the outcome of negotiations on the lifting of sanctions from Rusal is just a smoke screen, which is intended to hide the preservation of the status quo behind harsh language. In Russia, this view is shared by the adherents of the notorious concept of the “cunning plans of the Kremlin.” It has always been distinguished by the fact that any actions of the Russian authorities, including dubious and even blatantly failures, are part of a brilliant multi-way combination, which ultimately will lead to a crushing victory of our side and the shame of enemies.
In the US, Democrats and Trump's non-party haters usually come to the same conclusion lately. They are sure that the White House’s master only imitates powerful pressure on Moscow, but in fact he is indulging the Russian president in everything, and the case of sanctions against Rusal is a vivid example. Supporters of this view, for example, former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, primarily point to the fact that Deripaska transfers part of his shares to the state bank VTB, which, in turn, is under sanctions itself. According to critics, this proves that the alignment of forces in Rusal does not really change.
But, as we noted in the previous publication, the main result of the transaction is not to change the shares, but to lose control and control. Now, literally every gesture of the Russian corporation will have to be coordinated with the US authorities. As for VTB, the bank does not have the right to vote with a shareholding to it. All decisions in Rusal are made by people who are not connected in any way not only with Deripaska, but also with the Russian authorities. In particular, En + and Rusal will no longer be able to change registration without permission from Washington, although both companies previously planned to “move” from the island of Jersey to the domestic offshore on Russky Island.
However, transatlantic critics of the deal keep up the pressure. Last week, a comment in the spirit of "Trump with Putin was deceived of all" appeared in the New York Times. His author aspirated, informs that the editors have some kind of confidential document that has not been published before and contains unknown information about the change in the corporate structure of Rusal.
However, nothing fundamentally new edition reports, besides the fact that a month has been discussed by the business press. From the unprincipled worth noting two points. So, according to the New York Times, in exchange for shares that will go to VTB, Deripaska will write off debts to the bank. But this is a predictable step. In the last publication, we assumed that the oligarch should be compensated for the refusal of part of the property. It is logical that such was the cancellation of debt on the loan.
Also, according to NYT, Deripaska, his Free Business Foundation, his ex-spouse Polina Yumasheva, her father and those close to this family of Orange Capital will, under the terms of a “secret” agreement, belong to almost 57% En +. But in any case, this is still not the old 70%, but the key value, we repeat, in this scenario, it is not the question of ownership, but of management.
Almost at the same time, Bloomberg presented the opposite viewpoint of the expert of the Atlantic Council, Brian O'Toole, who oversaw the issues of sanctions in the Obama administration. Bloomberg describes him as a “Putin critic”. We quote:
“He is not naive and knows about the cunning and“ ingenuity ”of Russian billionaires. However, he highly appreciated the success achieved by the Ministry of Finance in the Deripaska case. "Deripaska was deprived of control over a company that had shaped his image for almost a quarter of a century, and he will not receive a single cent from this suspension," O'Tul wrote.
There are a number of signs that make it possible to judge that the Rusal deal is not at all a game of giveaway. To begin with, the lifting of sanctions is beneficial not only to Deripaska and Rusal. Discriminatory measures hit Alcoa and other US companies that were hit by aluminum price spikes and market destabilization.
The negotiations cost Deripaska a lump sum and was worth a lot of effort. To protect its interests, Rusal hired the investment bank Rothschild & Co, as well as a number of reputable PR services and law firms. Despite the strongest lobbying support, the negotiation process went very unevenly. The oligarch and his assets came under US sanctions in April 2018, and in May Deripaska expressed his readiness to meet Washington's demands, agreeing, along with a number of his representatives, to leave the holding's management.
In late July, the US Treasury Department received from Rusal the final version of the plan to fulfill its requirements. It would seem that a deal on the ointment, to which the market responded, where the shares of the aluminum giant soared. However, just a week later, Deripaska announced the counter-conditions put forward by the American Ministry of Finance, “bonded,” saying that Washington’s proposals were “unacceptable and devoid of economic sense.” Details were not specified. In mid-September, the US Treasury formulated new parameters for lifting the sanctions, obviously more compromise, however, negotiations continued for another three months.
His example is another science
The personnel shifts dictated from Washington are also quite remarkable. The chairman of the board of directors of En +, former Minister of Energy of the United Kingdom, Lord Greg Barker, expectedly remained in his post, but the chairman of the board of directors of Rusal, the German Matthias Warnig, had to resign. Meanwhile, Herr Warnig is known as “a great friend of our country” and especially its president since Putin’s service in the GDR. The dismissal on the orders of the Americans Warnig could not pass without pain for the Kremlin and its inhabitants.
Matthias Warnig could well have suffered for the active support of not only Rusal, but also Nord Stream-2.
As a peculiar reaction of a certain part of the Russian elite to the situation around Rusal, one can also consider the recent appearance in the media space of Oleg Deripaska’s talks with his closest aides. It is very difficult to imagine that such a drain occurred without the participation of the special services and the high command of the high authorities.
Well, very high stakes are at stake. The agreement between the founder of "Rusal" and the Ministry of Finance of the United States goes far beyond the fate of the specific assets of a single oligarch. A very remarkable statement was made at the end of last year on the pages of The Wall Street Journal by a former official of the US Treasury Department David Murray, who said: “This deal can become a roadmap for other companies that want to get out of the restrictions and believe that they are not involved in illegal actions.
It seems that in Moscow many high-ranking officials share this approach. Russian officials, starting with First Deputy Prime Minister Anton Siluanov, did not hide their support and direct participation in the negotiations with Washington on the issue of Rusal. In this regard, in a new light, there is a recent incident that happened in Davos with Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin. The minister was likened to Professor Pleischner from 17 Moments of Spring, with which the Swiss sweet air of freedom played a cruel joke. The official, having appeared among his own ones, has become soft and mentioned that the government is secretly preparing several transactions for the privatization of state-owned companies, including those with the participation of foreign capital. And at the same time, that officially no sale of significant state assets is foreseen in the foreseeable future.
Maxim Oreshkin. Journalists continue to guess who stands behind the youngest Russian minister
Probably the ultimate goal of these secret negotiations is not privatization by itself, but the withdrawal of the subsidiaries of Gazprom, Rosneft, or Rostec from the sanctions. According to the Rusal model, in accordance with the road map outlined - with a change in ownership structure and transfer of control. Of course, this pretty smacks of burglary with burglary and frank surrender. True, it happened a long time ago. Inclusion in the global market in the role of a notorious outsider, doomed to play by someone else's rules, meant that any more or less visible domestic company to some extent becomes independent of Russian laws.
The situation with the US sanctions only exposed the situation in which our officials, under pressure or threat of such, readily recognize the rule of the “older brother”, in the hope of retaining their part of control over the economy and financial flows. In the same way as the situation around Crimea, from which big business shies away, like the devil from incense, with the full connivance of the authorities, clearly demonstrated how much Russia’s sovereignty is in reality.
Having removed the head, they do not cry through the hair.
Information