Syria: democracy or peace?
I. Objective guys from the London diner, to which the West is deaf
25 May in the village of El-Hula in the province of Homs killed more than a hundred civilians. The Syrian Center for Monitoring Human Rights, located in London, without delay cases, promptly reported on the tragic incident to the advanced democracies. In times of high-speed Internet, you can report where you can directly from the diner - something like this, in which this monitoring center, consisting of two people, is located: the diner owner Rami Abdurahman and his assistant, who is also an acting translator.
These two comrades, no matter what we think of them, periodically report to the world community not only about casualties among the civilian population in Syria or the revolutionary oppositionists, but also among the military personnel of the government army. But, like Comrade Abdurahman, try, the West knows how to hear from reports about the observance of rights only what he, the West, needs.
In the murder of civilians, most of whom were shot at close range (at the temple) or died because the villains and bastards cut their throats, the West blames the army of Bashar al-Assad. To bring such a charge is not easy, because most of the victims of the massacre are members of families committed to the Syrian authorities. These people refused to cooperate with armed terrorists. The preliminary results of the work of the commission to investigate the massacre in Hula was recently announced at a press conference in Damascus by the head of this commission, General Jamal Kasem Al-Suleiman. In the massacre, according to the general, members of local gangs and militants who came from neighboring areas participated. An investigation revealed that people in El Hula were shot dead from a close range or cold weapons... There are no traces of bombing on the bodies tank or artillery shelling; no fractures of bones, no burns, no traces of shrapnel wounds were found. The purpose of the organized action of violence, according to the head of the commission, is to take the region out of government control.
That is why it is not easy to “transfer the arrows” to Bashar Assad and his army. However, there is a proven tool: to shout to the whole world about the guilt of Assad. You can also massively remove ambassadors from Syria, which is usually done before a military "exacerbation". You can also threaten a military operation, leading conversations about the no-fly zone, air strikes, NATO operations, UN sanctions on an operation, etc. You can also increase the pressure on Russia - so that she finally realizes how bad Assad, who does not want to obey the Annan plan, and that it was time to “leave” him, until he destroyed all his own people.
It is possible to adopt a resolution - on behalf of the UN Security Council, on behalf of the very one that has lost its face long ago. Why lost? Yes, because in common in the UN Security Council, the French-English draft statement in resolutely unequivocal terms was condemned by “firing of heavy weapons to civilian areas by the Syrian army, resulting in UN-confirmed killings of dozens of men, women and children, as well as injuries to hundreds of people in the Syrian village of Al-Khoula in the vicinity of Homs. "
Evidence is not required. Blame Assad. It seems that in the West and in the UN they were just waiting for the provocations of militants to launch another persecution of the Syrian president - perhaps the last one, after which some heavily armed peacekeepers will start to intervene in Syria: from the UN, NATO, from the loyal US Saudi Arabia, from Turkey, but from anywhere. There are a lot of people who want to snatch their piece in Syria. Fighters for human rights will chop Syria into pieces, divide it into “buffer zones”, that is, influence zones, and then take on Iran, having enclosed it from all sides and having previously tortured some “terrorist” to death in Guantanamo With utmost precision, he will tell the CIA representative in which room of his palace President Ahmadinejad hid an atomic bomb under his mattress and in which storage room he holds a safe with uranium enriched to ninety percent. And even then in the region a complete triumph of democracy will come. Iraqi or Libyan politics is proven. It is a model of how different kinds of democratic institutions work in the West.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay did not doubt at all that the Syrian government was responsible for the tragedy in Hula. Some gullible European or American will listen to the various commissars on TV, and even begin to believe that Bashar Asad himself, with a butcher’s knife, walks on dark Syrian evenings in Homs province and harasses his hated civilians. It is not clear just what this people in Syria exhibits in the windows portraits of President Assad. Probably, instead of broken glass ...
Madam High Commissioner said about the Hula massacre that “the indiscriminate and, possibly, deliberate killing of residents could be qualified as crimes against humanity” and demanded that the Syrian government stop the excessive use of force “against civilians”. Navi Pillay also stated that the UN Security Council should urgently "consider the issue of transferring the Syrian dossier to the International Criminal Court."
But the Security Council resolution was still not adopted. This is not to blame Assad, and Russia. This country, selling weapons to Assad (understandably, for the systematic destruction of the civilian population), is still re-reading the aspirations of the UN and other “friends of Syria”. 27 in May, Moscow did not support this crude resolution of the UN Security Council, which has a provocative basis, at least rejected it until the head of the UN observers in Syria informs the Security Council about all the circumstances of the tragedy.
Since the obstinate Moscow again showed claws, the West decided to go another way. 29 May Australia, Canada, Great Britain, Germany, France, several other EU countries and the United States announced the expulsion of Syrian ambassadors from their territories. Smell of war. That is, the campaign of world democracy against unhappy Syria. And the cause of total discontent with Syria was found: the peace-loving West represented by the UN, NATO and individual states cannot allow a large-scale civil war in Syria. In general, Chip and Dale will soon come to the aid of the brotherly Syrian people, tortured by the dictator Assad.
29 May in the media appeared information about the possible intervention in the conflict of America. The head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States Army, General Martin Dempsey, in an interview with CBS Channel сказал: “I believe that diplomatic pressure should always precede any talk of the use of military force. My task is to develop plans for military intervention, and not to solve political issues. Thus, if necessary, we will present different scenarios of military intervention. ” But in general, Dempsey - a cautious man, he will measure seven times, and only then cut off. Although the question, perhaps, is how many times he has already measured ...
Victoria Nuland, a spokeswoman for the US State Department, suggested to Russia what conclusions Moscow should draw after the investigation in El-Hula. She is said: "We are confident in what the results of the investigation will be." And clarified that the State Department endorses the desire of the Russian Federation to understand the situation. There, in the State Department, they are convinced that the “thugs” hired by the regime are guilty of the tragedy. These bad guys entered the house and shot at children and parents. They have such a job, the thugs. Therefore, Nuland hopes (so far) that Russia's position on the Syrian issue will change after receiving this very conclusion, helpfully formulated by the State Department. In general, America gave Russia an excuse to get out “with honor” from a difficult situation. Constant violation of the plan of Annan, and then there's the bloody massacre. It is only necessary to agree with America that Assad is to blame for a bit - and that’s all, the road to the resignation of the Syrian president is paved with the most direct intentions.
It should be noted that the presidential election in the United States in November and competing Republicans take advantage of Obama's “weakness” in the Syrian issue, calling his policy “shameful” and speaking of America’s loss of world leader status. Many political “stars” of the United States adhere to this position — for example, potential presidential candidate Mitt Romney or Arizona senior senator John McCain.
John McCain, unlike Barack Obama, does not at all believe that in the Syrian issue the States can count on Russia. How can you count on her, if she sells Assad weapons? No, it’s impossible to deal with Russia on the Syrian issue. But Obama is a stubborn comrade! .. And John McCain had to accuse Obama of “helpless” foreign policy. By the way, Mr. McCain is not alone in his harsh accusations - many people in the Republican Party approve of an ardent senator today. Arizona's senior senator, 2008, loser to Obama in the election, is now says in his address: "This administration is helpless in foreign policy and refuses to rule America ... This is really a renunciation of everything that America stands for and believes in."
With Mr. McCain solidarity Mr. Romney. "The United States and its allies must organize and arm the Syrian opposition groups so that they can protect themselves," so считает who can change as president of the United States Barack Obama.
In Europe, some particularly aggressive gentlemen are also ready to fight with Assad. For example, France. True, she will go to war on Syria only with the UN sanction. Monsieur Hollande 1 Jun said: “Military intervention is not excluded if it is carried out under the auspices of international law, namely, through Security Council resolutions.”
The great country of Belgium also expressed a desire to invade Syria. With a reservation: her on the eve of the invasion should be asked about. The head of the Belgian military department Peter de Creme said that's what: “If they turn to Belgium and the government deems it necessary, we can do that.” Mr de Creme noted that, on his own initiative, Belgium would not attack.
Familiar to the readers of "Military Review" Monsieur Burhan Galyun, who continues to be considered the leader of the "external" Syrian opposition, temporarily moved from Paris to Doha (Qatar) and from there last Saturday saidthat "would welcome a military action in Syria Arab countries." The head knows what he says: after the joint attack of the Arab countries, which are already supplying the rebels with weapons and money, NATO troops will enter Syria. The Alliance can do without UN sanction, as hinted at by the most radical US officials like Susan Rice. After all, NATO will have to save Syria from a full-scale civil war. Agree, the task is noble and quite peacemaking. And the civil war in Syria will begin, if only the Arab countries carry out a “military action”.
Against the background of such frightening statements and resolutions of the UN Security Council, even if they were not adopted, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was encouraged. Here is quote from her statement: "We declare that until the UN Security Council takes urgent decisions to protect civilians, let the Annan plan fly to hell."
“Devilish” statement was made by the opposition deserters after the head of the military council of the SSA, General Mustafa Ahmed al-Sheikh, called on the international community to arrange military intervention in the Syrian conflict after mass murder of citizens by the military in the village of Hula. In addition to the international attack, which is just waiting for the opposition, fed by the West, as well as Western satellites of Eastern origin, the general called on all the opposition to begin full-scale military action against the Assad regime.
In general, a harmonious choir turned out.
Only US President Barack Obama seemed to have stayed on the sidelines. Alone. Almost in isolation. And because of what? Probably as stubborn as these Russians. Not at all, George W. Bush; not eager to fight. But on all sides rushing calls for war with Syria and the overthrow of Assad. Not only in Europe they talk about it, but also in America, right next to Obama's ears.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, after UN observers confirmed the death of dozens of men, women and children in the Hula, allegedly as a result of shelling with the participation of artillery and tanks of the Syrian army, said: “Those who committed this atrocity should be detected and punished. The United States and the world community will work to increase the pressure on Bashar Assad and his associates, whose power based on murder and fear must come to an end. ”
Clinton does not even think that “those who” and “Bashar Asad and his entourage” can be on different sides of confrontation.
Following Hillary Clinton spoke out Erin Pelton is the official representative of the National Security Council at the White House. She called the shelling of the Syrian city of Hula a meanness. She also saidthat the events in the Hula "serve as a living confirmation of the illegitimacy of the current regime."
Like this. They killed civilians, cut their throats and shot them in whiskey, which means that the regime is illegitimate. That is, people do not believe Assad - and, to show him their distrust, they cut out and shoot women and children. Perhaps, according to the State Department and the White House, the principles of true democracy are implemented in practice in this way. The voice of the people must be heard by the authorities, mda.
Later, May 31, Hillary Clinton saidthat foreign military intervention in Syria is possible, but on one condition: if there is a broad consensus on this issue in the world. She believes that agreement on a military operation should be obtained not only from US allies, but also from Russia and China. Without them, apparently, the consensus will be too narrow.
Everything was conceived according to the Libyan scenario: in 2011, Russia at the Security Council was silent (only five countries abstained: Russia, China, India, Brazil, Germany), and the invasion occurred.
United States Permanent Representative to the UN Susan Rice hardly doubtsthat Kofi Annan's plan fails. The failure of the plan will be followed by a split in the UN Security Council. And then the world community, in its opinion, will have to act in circumvention of the Security Council. This is “the worst option,” as she thinks, but now he “looks the most likely.”
Rice is generally an expressive lady, prone to worse scenarios and unfounded accusations. It cost the Syrians to publish preliminary data on the investigation of the tragedy in the Hula, as she immediately saidthat this is a blatant lie.
US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta is expressed where more cautious — about as cautious as General Dempsey. He believes that the US Armed Forces can take part in a military operation in Syria, but with a resolution of the UN Security Council. Panetta said that he sees his task in that the American troops in the performance of such missions abroad always have the support of the international community.
3 June Russia condemned another resolution - now the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) on the massacre in the village of Hula, two days earlier adopted at an extraordinary session. In a statement to the Russian Foreign Ministry says: “The text of the resolution goes beyond the mandate of the HRC, which, in fact, goes against the statement of the UN Security Council to the press from 27 in May. The most serious anxiety of attempts by a number of countries, without waiting for the results of the work of UNMIS on the events in Hula, already now identify the perpetrators and thus exert pressure on the UN Security Council, as well as use the tragedy in their own interests and for disrupting the implementation of the special envoy’s plan - LAS K. Annana.
41 of 47 Council members voted for this resolution. Not only Russia opposed it, it was supported by China and Cuba.
If it did not work through the Security Council, we will try through the HRO ... But even then it did not work out. But the water wears away the stone ...
In order to break the stubborn Russia, Hillary Clinton, meeting with Russian officials, began to frequently mention the Yemen scenario. Maybe in order that Comrade Lavrov, with whom she had just talked, forgot about the Libyan script: for it is not very pleasant for Russia.
Clinton said what has been said many times already: “My signal to the foreign minister was simple and clear. We all need to step up our efforts to achieve the transfer of political power in Syria, and Russia should help in this. " According to Clinton, Lavrov himself "referred to the example of Yemen." Hillary Clinton wishes that what happened in Yemen (a reconciliation agreement with the opposition), with the help of Russia, would also take place in Syria. Otherwise, there will begin a civil war, the consequences of which can not be predicted.
They in the West have already invented everything for Russia. It remains only to agree.
As for the Syrian president, he blamed foreign countries for the escalating conflict. Speaking to the deputies of the People's Council, Bashar Assad сказалthat "the Syrian people are challenged" and against them is "a real war of extermination." Speaking about the massacre in El-Hula, Assad said: "Attempts to blacken the gallant national army are an insult to the Syrian people." The President called on the population to warn that “new reprisals and provocations could follow from the side of terrorists”.
From here it is necessary to draw a simple conclusion: Assad will be firm in his policy. Terrorists still gulp of grief.
And now back to our sheep, I mean, to two employees of the London diner.
Last week, just over the weekend in Syria, no less than 80 were killed by members of the government army. They died in clashes with opposition forces. RIA News" Received this information from Reuters, which referred to the Syrian Center for Monitoring Human Rights, that is, just to Comrade Abdurahman and his assistant-translator. According to the monitoring center, on Saturday and Sunday, the rebels carried out several attacks on military checkpoints, and also announced the destruction of several tanks and more than a hundred military personnel of the Syrian army. Doctors of local hospitals, however, confirmed the fact of the death of not a hundred, but 80 people.
However, world democracy is silent. As if there was no message from fellow human rights activists. Why not fighters for human rights blow their pipes? Because the “rebels” do not kill, but fight for democracy. Do not you feel the difference?
There is no noise in the Western press about the death of eighty soldiers, because if one can accuse the bloodthirsty Assad of killing civilians, then it would be hardly convenient to accuse of killing his soldiers and officers. Western biomass, dashing the evening at the television crews, will believe a lot, but then she will simply drop chips out of her hands. In the Western media, too, know the measure.
Ii. The free Syrian army will not comply with the plan of Annan, and will protect the Syrian people
The opposition has said - done. A week after the "bloody" statement by representatives of the PAS, the Annan plan really flew to hell. (However, we note in parentheses, the plans of Annan are usually meant for devils: everyone knows that this distinguished peacemaker previously "planned" in Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya. One gets the steady impression that the peace-loving Kofi Annan concocts his plans under the guidance of the chef State Department. His plans are good, clear and open, but they seem to be drawn up with provocation and violation by the party who, according to a predetermined scenario, must leave the political arena. In general, sadly, Kofi Annan is a harbinger of war) .
4 June Syrian rebels announced they would no longer follow Annan’s plan. From now on, opponents of President Assad will begin to defend their people. That is - to fight, you can say officially. Representative of the Free Syrian Army Sami al-Kurdi said: “We decided to terminate our agreement (on this plan) and, starting today, we begin to protect our people.”
And that is not all. The militant representative of the "rebels" called for the reform of the UN observation mission in Syria into a "peacekeeping". What does it mean to explain, probably, no one needs. Well, if not the UN, then let the international community take a “bold decision” and form a flightless and buffer zone in Syria. The representative of the SSA is not original: all the “zones” there are not the brainchild of his mind, but ideas that have been worn and tested by various peacekeepers. So this “revolutionary” simply repeats the words of other uncles. By the way, the end of Libya began with the creation of a no-fly zone.
Mr. Sami Al-Kurdi, the former major, is also addedthat the rebels will cease to act in accordance with the peace plan 8 June. This number is the deadline set in the ultimatum of the opposition. From this day, the "rebels" will begin to "protect their people," as al-Kurdi said.
There are no particular details in the Russian press about what constitutes the SSA today. But something the gentlemen "rebels" told western correspondents. Christopher Torchia (Associated Press, report from Istanbul) in The Washington Times from 4 Jun cites some data on "revolutionaries".
First, on Monday, Syrian activists announced a new coalition of rebel movements, with the goal of overcoming the deep divisions within the opposition in the fight against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad. (From this we can conclude that the opposition is still heterogeneous).
Secondly, at a press conference in Turkey, the rebels announced the formation of the Syrian front. This press conference looked quite presentable: here you will find billboards, simultaneous translation, and video presentations. (True, all these little things do not guarantee victory for the rebels).
Third, according to Khaled al-Okla, one of the organizers of the conference, everything will be coordinated around the SSA on the Turkish border. However, for the time being, the FSA participants admit that their commanders have limited operational control over the rebel groups in Syria, but the armed groups are under strong pressure from the government forces - with their tanks and artillery. (From this it is easy to understand that the Assad army is still strong).
Therefore, Mr. Al-Okla believes that the time has come to conclude some agreements or sign agreements on the coordination of “work in Syria”. In addition, he stated that his group has 12.000 fighters.
The rebels believe that Bashar Asad is responsible for the death of more than 13.000 people in Syria. The killings in the Hula are also the work of the Syrian army.
More opposition reported that the new front of the rebel struggle already has 100 battalions.
It’s with these forces that I would not take on trust these numbers - the oppositionists are going to “protect the people”, defying the Annan plan.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, however, with militant rebels did not agree. He is convinced that the Annan plan is an integral part of the resolution of the Syrian conflict. He also stressed that the UN does not discuss military intervention in the Syrian conflict.
However, we already understood that the representatives of the FAS rely not on the UN, but on the “international community”. (Apparently, the UN still has not slipped - by the standards of terrorists - into the abyss of radicalization). If there was no support from this community itself - information, communication, financial, and weapon - no PAS or there would be no SNA (Syrian National Council) and in nature would not exist. Western democracies pour oil on fire. All this “Arab Spring” has much more Western roots than Eastern ones.
After the massacre in El-Hula, America — through the mouths of high-ranking officials — every day insists that a full-scale civil war is about to begin in Syria and that only the resignation of Bashar al-Assad can save the people of Syria. And in order to “put aside” him, the White House, in a company with its allies, is now engaged in “preparing the transfer of political power in the country”. Xnumx june about it right сказал The official representative of the American administration is Jay Carney. Here are his words: “Together with international partners we are focused on preparing the transfer of political power in Syria ... The sooner the power is transferred, the better the Syrian people will be, the more chances there will be to prevent the bloody war between religious groups from escalating.”
Journalists asked Mr. Carney whether Bashar Assad had lied when he said the government troops were not involved in the Hula massacre over the weekend, and Carney replied shortly: “Yes.”
Carney, like other US officials, such as Hillary Clinton, believes that Russia should play an important role in organizing a peaceful transfer of power from the Syrian President to the opposition. Carney, like Clinton, seems to believe that Russia is about to change its position on Syria. However, these gentlemen and ladies have long been saying that they almost reached an agreement with Russia, but “almost” is not considered. No matter what Karni and Clinton say, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saidthat Russia considers it necessary to force all parties to the Syrian conflict to peace negotiations. Our comrade Lavrov is very stubborn ...
Iii. Russians don't give up
And Putin is also stubborn. Angela Merkel did not argue with him on the Syrian issue, but only agreed. Everything in Syria must be resolved through diplomacy. However, after Germany, the Russian president visited France, and there Monsieur Hollande decided take the bull by the horns: “The Bashar Assad regime behaved in a completely unacceptable and unacceptable manner and committed acts that discredited it. Bashar al-Assad’s refusal of power is the only way out of this situation. ”
Vladimir Putin in response to this сказал Hollande: “And how many civilians died from the other side, at the hands of the so-called militants. did you count? There, too, is going through hundreds. Our goal is to reconcile all parties to the conflict. We do not choose ours and not ours, we want to take care of everyone. ”
Hollande in general, from the very beginning of his presidency, somehow didn’t fit well into the Syrian issue. At least he did not take into account the material side of the issue for Russia: after all, Moscow has its own interests in Damascus. Not to mention the fact that 50.000 of Russian citizens lives in Syria, and 1.200 military specialists work there. Instead of creating a prestige in the international arena, step by step, Hollande, the new president, does everything to show himself from the worst side. Even the Americans, supporters of the overthrow of Assad, are not as hasty as Monsieur Hollande.
“It is interesting to note,” writes Lyubov Lyulko (Pravda.ru), - that Hollande annoys not only Moscow, but also Berlin, the German "Spiegel" reports. Thus, the representative of the Bundestag Committee on International Affairs, Ruprecht Polenz, said that even an air operation, as in the case of Gaddafi, is impossible due to the power of the Syrian army, an incomprehensible situation resembling a civil war, and the heterogeneity of the opposition. This suggests that Hollande is still acting on emotions, demonstrating professional incompetence. ”
Exactly. Proficiency - instead of political authority.
3 and 4 June, the Russia-EU summit was held in St. Petersburg. The European Union was represented by European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, and Russia by President Vladimir Putin. Many expectedthat at this summit, the EU will put pressure on Russia - so that Vladimir Putin will finally take a "tough" position towards Bashar Assad. (One private opinion for example: “Putin is a criminal guilty of genocide in Syria. We need to introduce sanctions against his regime. " Signed: coastwalker).
However, it turned out that the parties at the summit came to the general opinion: Kofi Annan’s plan in Syria has no alternative. Lying to me will not give the most democratic source in the world - "Voice of America":
“At a joint press conference with Putin, van Rompuy noted that both sides need to work together to achieve an immediate end to the violence in Syria and to begin the process of a peaceful transfer of power:
“The situation in Syria is terrifying. The Syrian regime must immediately stop all forms of violence and fully support the UN observation mission. The European Union and Russia may have differences, but we fully agree that Kofi Annan’s plan is the best way to end the violence, prevent civil war and find a peaceful, long-term solution. We must unite efforts to make this happen, and try to develop common appeals. ”
Catherine Ashton, head of EU diplomacy, who also participated in the summit, echoes Rompuy: "We want to work closely with Russia to find a way to end the violence and to support Kofi Annan’s six-point plan."
The differences of the parties at the summit were that Moscow refused to support Western initiatives about the "leaving" of Assad.
Iv. There is an opinion
Opinion first. Syrian conflict has become a business. Yuri Raykhel считаетthat now in Syria, the clashes have broken up into a multitude of point conflicts, and here there is no civil war, but looting, extortion, blackmail, contract killings, carried out by the all-powerful petty field commanders who lead the gangs. Such banditry has become commonplace in the areas of Homs and Idlib and is moving further north. The activities of the gangs are mixed up with ethnic and religious hostility, which, according to Reichel, is tantamount to a catastrophe for a heterogeneous Syrian society, where representatives of different religions and ethnic groups have peacefully lived together for centuries. As a result, the Hobbes war of all against all began in Syria.
However, against the background of the war, the survival of the fittest is also noticeable - and this is no longer Hobbes, but Spencer, we note from ourselves. Quote from the article by Yu. Raichel:
“As you know, to whom the war, and to whom and the mother is native. Someone shoots, and someone does business on it. Thus, the seizure of someone else’s real estate, imposing a roof on businessmen and merchants, kidnapping people for ransom and even receiving money for mediation in search of the abducted became common in this part of Syria (Homs, Idlib. - O. Ch.). In Homs, for several months, something like a virtual market of people has been operating between the warring Sunni and Alawite districts, where an exchange of stolen Alawite and Sunni is taking place. In Islam, the life of a woman has never been valued more than that of men.
In Homs, the picture during exchanges is the opposite: since many fear for the vulnerability of women and the honor of the family, the captured female can be exchanged for several men. Only business, no religion. ”
The inter-ethnic and confessional conflict in Syria has spread to Lebanon, continues Reichel. It is quite possible to assume that in Lebanon, there was a weakening of the supporters of Prime Minister Najib Azmi Mikati, known for his loyalty to Assad. Through Lebanon, weapons are being smuggled into Syrian militants, and the militants themselves are moving along the same paths. Maybe the forces behind the conflict in Lebanon plan to replace Mikati with the opposition Saad Hariri, behind whom are Saudi Arabia and the West.
The Syrian conflict, writes Reichel, turns into a business project in which the warring parties forget about the ideology and remember only the benefits. In Lebanon, Shiite Hezbollah activists were recently arrested for selling weapons to Syrian Sunni rebels.
The second opinion. Intervention in Syria - the road to political vacuum and chaos. After all, reacting to one tragedy, it is impossible to promote another. So считает Henry Kissinger.
They write:
“... The doctrine of humanitarian intervention differs sharply from the traditional concept of foreign policy; it ignores categories such as national interest and the balance of power, which are rejected due to their lack of a moral aspect. It is based not on the desire to confront a strategic threat, but on the desire to eliminate conditions that violate the principles of government that are considered to be universal and suitable for all.
If such a form of intervention is adopted as a principle of foreign policy, serious questions will arise concerning the future strategy of the United States. Should the United States consider it its duty to support any popular uprising against any regime that is not democratic, including those whose existence has until now been considered very important for preserving the current world order? Should, say, Saudi Arabia be considered a permanent ally, or does it remain so only until the appearance of protest demonstrations on its territory? Should America recognize the right of other countries to interfere in the affairs of neighboring states on behalf of their “brothers in faith” or ethnically related peoples? ”
“As far as intervention in Syria is concerned,” Kissinger continues, “here the humanitarian goals and strategic objectives coincide. Located in the heart of the Muslim world, Syria, under the rule of Bashar al-Assad, helps Iran to implement its strategy in the Mediterranean. It supports the Hamas movement, which does not recognize the right of the Israeli state to exist, and the Hezbollah grouping, which destroys the integrity of Lebanon. The United States has reasons, both strategic and humanitarian, to want to overthrow the Assad regime and set such a goal for international diplomacy. On the other hand, strategic interests do not always turn into a pretext for war, because, if that were so, the need for diplomacy would have disappeared by itself. ”
Kissinger warns Americans about the intervention: “... Remember, we already once made a mistake in the past, arming the Taliban to fight against the Soviet invaders, who then became a threat to our security. Will we repeat this mistake again? ”
For military intervention, strategic or humanitarian, according to Kissinger, two prerequisites are necessary. First, it is a consensus about the future system of government, which should be established after the overthrow of the regime. If the ruler is only biased, the intervention will create a political vacuum in the country - and as a result a civil war may break out, because armed groups will start to fight for power, and the neighboring countries will support various opposing sides. Secondly, the political objectives of the invasion should not only be clearly expressed, but also achievable. Henry Kissinger doubts that the question regarding Syria will be tested for compliance with such requirements. Can America get involved in a conflict that is increasingly becoming a sectarian? No, he can not. Reacting to one tragedy, Kissinger concludes, one cannot contribute to the emergence of another.
The third opinion. No need to go to Syria! Does not advise climb there Steve Chapman:
“The negative side of winning a war is that it makes the next war more attractive. The defeat of the Serbs in Kosovo paved the way for the invasion of Afghanistan. Against the background of initial successes there, we decided that a couple of trifles would be dealt with Iraq. The victory of 2011 of the year in Libya invites us to get involved in a conflict in Syria. ”
Note that Steve Chapman is a member of the editorial board of the Chicago Tribune, a man who is not at all a fan of Bashar Assad. This, by the way, is easy to understand from the following quote:
“In this case, the temptation is easy to understand. Syrian dictator Bashar Asad is actually pushing the international community to intervene: recently, loyal troops killed more than a hundred people, carrying out executions of entire families. ”
That is, the "great temptation", obviously, concerns the defense of human rights, violated by Assad's murderer in Syria.
Chapman discourages crawling into Syria, not because he feels sorry for Assad, but because the operation in Syria is a much more risky venture than the campaign to eliminate Gaddafi.
The opinion about risk belongs, in fact, not to Chapman, but to Robert Paper, director of the Chicago Security and Terrorism Project at the University of Chicago.
In Syria, the situation is not as favorable as in Libya. The rebels lack support, and their supporters are scattered throughout the country. Air strikes are useless where government troops and insurgents are fighting closely, and one cannot be distinguished from the sky from the sky. Yes, you can send ground troops there, but this means the likelihood of many casualties among the US military.
Therefore, the price of victory is the most important question for Barack Obama.
Moreover, such an invasion “would be suspiciously like a conquest, rather than an act of altruism. In the end, Syria has long been in conflict with its neighbor Israel, which is our close ally. ”
The Syrians, the author is developing this topic, will suspect that NATO forces "are doing the dirty work of a hated Zionist entity." Oh, the Tehran mullahs will try to enlighten them on this. Indeed, in Tehran, the operation in Syria will be perceived as a prelude to the attack on Iran - and therefore Assad will be helped.
Therefore, Chapman does not advise Obama to demonstrate America’s “leadership” by intervening in Syria. He writes: “Critics demand that Obama show“ leadership ”by doing something to help Syrian civilians. But sometimes leadership is to know what not to do — and not to do it. ”
It is impossible not to recognize this point of view sound.
The fourth opinion, owned by a Russian writer and publicist Leonid Mlechin: "... Russia's pragmatic interest is to get rid of this burden." Mlechin пишет:
“... The Syrian regime is one of the toughest and most cruel. There alone the sea is bottled. I know from personal experience. Our film crew flew to Damascus along with the Russian foreign minister, who arrived there on a visit. There was quite a lot of free time, and we decided to take pictures of the city in order not to use someone else’s chronicle. They asked permission: “No problem. We will give the representative of the special service, he organizes everything. ” As soon as they found a point, received a blessing from our accompanying person, deployed the equipment, a representative of the regional state security immediately appeared and forbade shooting. Not a single frame was taken away. But these were not secret objects. ”
A similar order of things, according to Mlechin, fed up with the Syrians.
Russia, however, to support Syria is “at least unwise”. “We,” writes Mlechin, “supported Saddam Hussein, and now the new authorities are looking at us with hostility. The same thing happened with Libya. You need to be realistic, seeing what is happening there. The winners will remember later this friendship. ”
Yes, after Assad someone else will come to power. Someone angry. Any radical Islamist. Most likely, writes Mlechin, so be it. There is no one more to come to power there: “Can a democratic opposition be ripening under a dictatorship? Yes, it was burned there with a hot iron. Naturally, in such conditions the most radical forces become the head of the opposition. But it does not follow from this that it is necessary to preserve rigid autocratic regimes. The only path that will lead Syria into a civilized community is through democracy. And the states of this region have already demonstrated how this happens. "
Mlechin says that military intervention is the last thing, and states: “Unfortunately, there is no single position of the great powers. Assad would have kept himself different if he had not felt the support of Moscow and Beijing. ”
According to the author, "Russia's pragmatic interest is to get rid of this burden." And without that, Syria cost Russia “many billion dollars. Why on earth did we take this money from our own people? Gifts should be made to women, not states. ”
Fifth opinion owned by Syria's urban middle class: “This is not about freedom, not about democracy. We are at the center of a religious war. ” About what the middle class thinks in today's Syria, told Rainer Hermann («Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung», Germany).
The urban middle class in Damascus, in his words, “strives to live” and does not understand bloodshed. He wants peace and stability.
Four years ago, Yara bought a condominium in Ain Terma. The young chemist (alavitka) at that time could not, of course, assume that in three years an uprising would begin against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. In Ain Terma today dominated by predominantly Sunni rebels. Yara returned to Mezze, in the relatively safe area of Damascus, where government offices and embassies are located.
And now she travels every day from Mezze to the south - to her work in the food laboratory. The road takes half an hour. Yara told a German journalist about a teacher who taught in Sunni Artus, but came here from the nearby Alawite village of Katana. At school, the teacher was threatened with death, after which he was shot dead at the school gates.
“Soon all Syria will be like Homs,” fears the young woman.
People like Yara, urban emigrants from the educated middle class, are considered supporters of democratic reforms in Syria. It is believed that they want a stable economy and a safe future. But it seems that with stability everything is over.
“This is not about freedom, not about democracy. We are at the center of a religious war. ” So says the young woman.
In the food laboratory in which Yara works, there is a real “religious mosaic”. Nothing has changed here, despite the problems throughout the country. Sunni, Alawites and Christians work side by side. “The question of which religion we adhere to is viewed by us as tactless,” says Marwan, head of the laboratory. He is a Christian. Last night, he said, people walked through the Christian quarter of Damascus, in which he lives, and shouted: “Long live Jihad!” His predecessor gathered five bags of things this winter - and moved with his family to one of the European Union countries.
Sunnica Mona also lives in constant fear. It seems to her that she may be attacked at any time when she goes to work - only cost her to go beyond the limits of Sunnite Artus. Now she, like Yar, is going to move to a safe place in the center of Damascus.
Sarah Sarah and her husband also returned to Damascus - fearing for the lives of two children. For more than a year, following a new fashion, they taught their children in one of the most expensive private schools in the green countryside. But then the kidnapping of the children of rich parents began ...
But also in Damascus scary.
Sarah’s two brothers now live in France. She says that she is tired of daily fear - and the thought that a person can be killed only for his faith. For two months now she wants to buy new clothes, but no longer believes that the revival will return some day to the shopping streets of Damascus. Her family no longer goes outside with a light heart. Only work gives a little sense of life.
Yara, Mona, Sarah and Marwan can go to their work. Other companies, according to Hermann, were forced to close down due to military clashes in the country. But also for the workers of the food laboratory, which were discussed above, the risk of losing their job increases. Violence is getting closer to them. Understanding bloodshed, Rainer Hermann ends the article, can hardly be found in places like this.
25 May in the village of El-Hula in the province of Homs killed more than a hundred civilians. The Syrian Center for Monitoring Human Rights, located in London, without delay cases, promptly reported on the tragic incident to the advanced democracies. In times of high-speed Internet, you can report where you can directly from the diner - something like this, in which this monitoring center, consisting of two people, is located: the diner owner Rami Abdurahman and his assistant, who is also an acting translator.
These two comrades, no matter what we think of them, periodically report to the world community not only about casualties among the civilian population in Syria or the revolutionary oppositionists, but also among the military personnel of the government army. But, like Comrade Abdurahman, try, the West knows how to hear from reports about the observance of rights only what he, the West, needs.
In the murder of civilians, most of whom were shot at close range (at the temple) or died because the villains and bastards cut their throats, the West blames the army of Bashar al-Assad. To bring such a charge is not easy, because most of the victims of the massacre are members of families committed to the Syrian authorities. These people refused to cooperate with armed terrorists. The preliminary results of the work of the commission to investigate the massacre in Hula was recently announced at a press conference in Damascus by the head of this commission, General Jamal Kasem Al-Suleiman. In the massacre, according to the general, members of local gangs and militants who came from neighboring areas participated. An investigation revealed that people in El Hula were shot dead from a close range or cold weapons... There are no traces of bombing on the bodies tank or artillery shelling; no fractures of bones, no burns, no traces of shrapnel wounds were found. The purpose of the organized action of violence, according to the head of the commission, is to take the region out of government control.
That is why it is not easy to “transfer the arrows” to Bashar Assad and his army. However, there is a proven tool: to shout to the whole world about the guilt of Assad. You can also massively remove ambassadors from Syria, which is usually done before a military "exacerbation". You can also threaten a military operation, leading conversations about the no-fly zone, air strikes, NATO operations, UN sanctions on an operation, etc. You can also increase the pressure on Russia - so that she finally realizes how bad Assad, who does not want to obey the Annan plan, and that it was time to “leave” him, until he destroyed all his own people.
It is possible to adopt a resolution - on behalf of the UN Security Council, on behalf of the very one that has lost its face long ago. Why lost? Yes, because in common in the UN Security Council, the French-English draft statement in resolutely unequivocal terms was condemned by “firing of heavy weapons to civilian areas by the Syrian army, resulting in UN-confirmed killings of dozens of men, women and children, as well as injuries to hundreds of people in the Syrian village of Al-Khoula in the vicinity of Homs. "
Evidence is not required. Blame Assad. It seems that in the West and in the UN they were just waiting for the provocations of militants to launch another persecution of the Syrian president - perhaps the last one, after which some heavily armed peacekeepers will start to intervene in Syria: from the UN, NATO, from the loyal US Saudi Arabia, from Turkey, but from anywhere. There are a lot of people who want to snatch their piece in Syria. Fighters for human rights will chop Syria into pieces, divide it into “buffer zones”, that is, influence zones, and then take on Iran, having enclosed it from all sides and having previously tortured some “terrorist” to death in Guantanamo With utmost precision, he will tell the CIA representative in which room of his palace President Ahmadinejad hid an atomic bomb under his mattress and in which storage room he holds a safe with uranium enriched to ninety percent. And even then in the region a complete triumph of democracy will come. Iraqi or Libyan politics is proven. It is a model of how different kinds of democratic institutions work in the West.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay did not doubt at all that the Syrian government was responsible for the tragedy in Hula. Some gullible European or American will listen to the various commissars on TV, and even begin to believe that Bashar Asad himself, with a butcher’s knife, walks on dark Syrian evenings in Homs province and harasses his hated civilians. It is not clear just what this people in Syria exhibits in the windows portraits of President Assad. Probably, instead of broken glass ...
Madam High Commissioner said about the Hula massacre that “the indiscriminate and, possibly, deliberate killing of residents could be qualified as crimes against humanity” and demanded that the Syrian government stop the excessive use of force “against civilians”. Navi Pillay also stated that the UN Security Council should urgently "consider the issue of transferring the Syrian dossier to the International Criminal Court."
But the Security Council resolution was still not adopted. This is not to blame Assad, and Russia. This country, selling weapons to Assad (understandably, for the systematic destruction of the civilian population), is still re-reading the aspirations of the UN and other “friends of Syria”. 27 in May, Moscow did not support this crude resolution of the UN Security Council, which has a provocative basis, at least rejected it until the head of the UN observers in Syria informs the Security Council about all the circumstances of the tragedy.
Since the obstinate Moscow again showed claws, the West decided to go another way. 29 May Australia, Canada, Great Britain, Germany, France, several other EU countries and the United States announced the expulsion of Syrian ambassadors from their territories. Smell of war. That is, the campaign of world democracy against unhappy Syria. And the cause of total discontent with Syria was found: the peace-loving West represented by the UN, NATO and individual states cannot allow a large-scale civil war in Syria. In general, Chip and Dale will soon come to the aid of the brotherly Syrian people, tortured by the dictator Assad.
29 May in the media appeared information about the possible intervention in the conflict of America. The head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States Army, General Martin Dempsey, in an interview with CBS Channel сказал: “I believe that diplomatic pressure should always precede any talk of the use of military force. My task is to develop plans for military intervention, and not to solve political issues. Thus, if necessary, we will present different scenarios of military intervention. ” But in general, Dempsey - a cautious man, he will measure seven times, and only then cut off. Although the question, perhaps, is how many times he has already measured ...
Victoria Nuland, a spokeswoman for the US State Department, suggested to Russia what conclusions Moscow should draw after the investigation in El-Hula. She is said: "We are confident in what the results of the investigation will be." And clarified that the State Department endorses the desire of the Russian Federation to understand the situation. There, in the State Department, they are convinced that the “thugs” hired by the regime are guilty of the tragedy. These bad guys entered the house and shot at children and parents. They have such a job, the thugs. Therefore, Nuland hopes (so far) that Russia's position on the Syrian issue will change after receiving this very conclusion, helpfully formulated by the State Department. In general, America gave Russia an excuse to get out “with honor” from a difficult situation. Constant violation of the plan of Annan, and then there's the bloody massacre. It is only necessary to agree with America that Assad is to blame for a bit - and that’s all, the road to the resignation of the Syrian president is paved with the most direct intentions.
It should be noted that the presidential election in the United States in November and competing Republicans take advantage of Obama's “weakness” in the Syrian issue, calling his policy “shameful” and speaking of America’s loss of world leader status. Many political “stars” of the United States adhere to this position — for example, potential presidential candidate Mitt Romney or Arizona senior senator John McCain.
John McCain, unlike Barack Obama, does not at all believe that in the Syrian issue the States can count on Russia. How can you count on her, if she sells Assad weapons? No, it’s impossible to deal with Russia on the Syrian issue. But Obama is a stubborn comrade! .. And John McCain had to accuse Obama of “helpless” foreign policy. By the way, Mr. McCain is not alone in his harsh accusations - many people in the Republican Party approve of an ardent senator today. Arizona's senior senator, 2008, loser to Obama in the election, is now says in his address: "This administration is helpless in foreign policy and refuses to rule America ... This is really a renunciation of everything that America stands for and believes in."
With Mr. McCain solidarity Mr. Romney. "The United States and its allies must organize and arm the Syrian opposition groups so that they can protect themselves," so считает who can change as president of the United States Barack Obama.
In Europe, some particularly aggressive gentlemen are also ready to fight with Assad. For example, France. True, she will go to war on Syria only with the UN sanction. Monsieur Hollande 1 Jun said: “Military intervention is not excluded if it is carried out under the auspices of international law, namely, through Security Council resolutions.”
The great country of Belgium also expressed a desire to invade Syria. With a reservation: her on the eve of the invasion should be asked about. The head of the Belgian military department Peter de Creme said that's what: “If they turn to Belgium and the government deems it necessary, we can do that.” Mr de Creme noted that, on his own initiative, Belgium would not attack.
Familiar to the readers of "Military Review" Monsieur Burhan Galyun, who continues to be considered the leader of the "external" Syrian opposition, temporarily moved from Paris to Doha (Qatar) and from there last Saturday saidthat "would welcome a military action in Syria Arab countries." The head knows what he says: after the joint attack of the Arab countries, which are already supplying the rebels with weapons and money, NATO troops will enter Syria. The Alliance can do without UN sanction, as hinted at by the most radical US officials like Susan Rice. After all, NATO will have to save Syria from a full-scale civil war. Agree, the task is noble and quite peacemaking. And the civil war in Syria will begin, if only the Arab countries carry out a “military action”.
Against the background of such frightening statements and resolutions of the UN Security Council, even if they were not adopted, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was encouraged. Here is quote from her statement: "We declare that until the UN Security Council takes urgent decisions to protect civilians, let the Annan plan fly to hell."
“Devilish” statement was made by the opposition deserters after the head of the military council of the SSA, General Mustafa Ahmed al-Sheikh, called on the international community to arrange military intervention in the Syrian conflict after mass murder of citizens by the military in the village of Hula. In addition to the international attack, which is just waiting for the opposition, fed by the West, as well as Western satellites of Eastern origin, the general called on all the opposition to begin full-scale military action against the Assad regime.
In general, a harmonious choir turned out.
Only US President Barack Obama seemed to have stayed on the sidelines. Alone. Almost in isolation. And because of what? Probably as stubborn as these Russians. Not at all, George W. Bush; not eager to fight. But on all sides rushing calls for war with Syria and the overthrow of Assad. Not only in Europe they talk about it, but also in America, right next to Obama's ears.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, after UN observers confirmed the death of dozens of men, women and children in the Hula, allegedly as a result of shelling with the participation of artillery and tanks of the Syrian army, said: “Those who committed this atrocity should be detected and punished. The United States and the world community will work to increase the pressure on Bashar Assad and his associates, whose power based on murder and fear must come to an end. ”
Clinton does not even think that “those who” and “Bashar Asad and his entourage” can be on different sides of confrontation.
Following Hillary Clinton spoke out Erin Pelton is the official representative of the National Security Council at the White House. She called the shelling of the Syrian city of Hula a meanness. She also saidthat the events in the Hula "serve as a living confirmation of the illegitimacy of the current regime."
Like this. They killed civilians, cut their throats and shot them in whiskey, which means that the regime is illegitimate. That is, people do not believe Assad - and, to show him their distrust, they cut out and shoot women and children. Perhaps, according to the State Department and the White House, the principles of true democracy are implemented in practice in this way. The voice of the people must be heard by the authorities, mda.
Later, May 31, Hillary Clinton saidthat foreign military intervention in Syria is possible, but on one condition: if there is a broad consensus on this issue in the world. She believes that agreement on a military operation should be obtained not only from US allies, but also from Russia and China. Without them, apparently, the consensus will be too narrow.
Everything was conceived according to the Libyan scenario: in 2011, Russia at the Security Council was silent (only five countries abstained: Russia, China, India, Brazil, Germany), and the invasion occurred.
United States Permanent Representative to the UN Susan Rice hardly doubtsthat Kofi Annan's plan fails. The failure of the plan will be followed by a split in the UN Security Council. And then the world community, in its opinion, will have to act in circumvention of the Security Council. This is “the worst option,” as she thinks, but now he “looks the most likely.”
Rice is generally an expressive lady, prone to worse scenarios and unfounded accusations. It cost the Syrians to publish preliminary data on the investigation of the tragedy in the Hula, as she immediately saidthat this is a blatant lie.
US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta is expressed where more cautious — about as cautious as General Dempsey. He believes that the US Armed Forces can take part in a military operation in Syria, but with a resolution of the UN Security Council. Panetta said that he sees his task in that the American troops in the performance of such missions abroad always have the support of the international community.
3 June Russia condemned another resolution - now the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) on the massacre in the village of Hula, two days earlier adopted at an extraordinary session. In a statement to the Russian Foreign Ministry says: “The text of the resolution goes beyond the mandate of the HRC, which, in fact, goes against the statement of the UN Security Council to the press from 27 in May. The most serious anxiety of attempts by a number of countries, without waiting for the results of the work of UNMIS on the events in Hula, already now identify the perpetrators and thus exert pressure on the UN Security Council, as well as use the tragedy in their own interests and for disrupting the implementation of the special envoy’s plan - LAS K. Annana.
41 of 47 Council members voted for this resolution. Not only Russia opposed it, it was supported by China and Cuba.
If it did not work through the Security Council, we will try through the HRO ... But even then it did not work out. But the water wears away the stone ...
In order to break the stubborn Russia, Hillary Clinton, meeting with Russian officials, began to frequently mention the Yemen scenario. Maybe in order that Comrade Lavrov, with whom she had just talked, forgot about the Libyan script: for it is not very pleasant for Russia.
Clinton said what has been said many times already: “My signal to the foreign minister was simple and clear. We all need to step up our efforts to achieve the transfer of political power in Syria, and Russia should help in this. " According to Clinton, Lavrov himself "referred to the example of Yemen." Hillary Clinton wishes that what happened in Yemen (a reconciliation agreement with the opposition), with the help of Russia, would also take place in Syria. Otherwise, there will begin a civil war, the consequences of which can not be predicted.
They in the West have already invented everything for Russia. It remains only to agree.
As for the Syrian president, he blamed foreign countries for the escalating conflict. Speaking to the deputies of the People's Council, Bashar Assad сказалthat "the Syrian people are challenged" and against them is "a real war of extermination." Speaking about the massacre in El-Hula, Assad said: "Attempts to blacken the gallant national army are an insult to the Syrian people." The President called on the population to warn that “new reprisals and provocations could follow from the side of terrorists”.
From here it is necessary to draw a simple conclusion: Assad will be firm in his policy. Terrorists still gulp of grief.
And now back to our sheep, I mean, to two employees of the London diner.
Last week, just over the weekend in Syria, no less than 80 were killed by members of the government army. They died in clashes with opposition forces. RIA News" Received this information from Reuters, which referred to the Syrian Center for Monitoring Human Rights, that is, just to Comrade Abdurahman and his assistant-translator. According to the monitoring center, on Saturday and Sunday, the rebels carried out several attacks on military checkpoints, and also announced the destruction of several tanks and more than a hundred military personnel of the Syrian army. Doctors of local hospitals, however, confirmed the fact of the death of not a hundred, but 80 people.
However, world democracy is silent. As if there was no message from fellow human rights activists. Why not fighters for human rights blow their pipes? Because the “rebels” do not kill, but fight for democracy. Do not you feel the difference?
There is no noise in the Western press about the death of eighty soldiers, because if one can accuse the bloodthirsty Assad of killing civilians, then it would be hardly convenient to accuse of killing his soldiers and officers. Western biomass, dashing the evening at the television crews, will believe a lot, but then she will simply drop chips out of her hands. In the Western media, too, know the measure.
Ii. The free Syrian army will not comply with the plan of Annan, and will protect the Syrian people
The opposition has said - done. A week after the "bloody" statement by representatives of the PAS, the Annan plan really flew to hell. (However, we note in parentheses, the plans of Annan are usually meant for devils: everyone knows that this distinguished peacemaker previously "planned" in Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya. One gets the steady impression that the peace-loving Kofi Annan concocts his plans under the guidance of the chef State Department. His plans are good, clear and open, but they seem to be drawn up with provocation and violation by the party who, according to a predetermined scenario, must leave the political arena. In general, sadly, Kofi Annan is a harbinger of war) .
4 June Syrian rebels announced they would no longer follow Annan’s plan. From now on, opponents of President Assad will begin to defend their people. That is - to fight, you can say officially. Representative of the Free Syrian Army Sami al-Kurdi said: “We decided to terminate our agreement (on this plan) and, starting today, we begin to protect our people.”
And that is not all. The militant representative of the "rebels" called for the reform of the UN observation mission in Syria into a "peacekeeping". What does it mean to explain, probably, no one needs. Well, if not the UN, then let the international community take a “bold decision” and form a flightless and buffer zone in Syria. The representative of the SSA is not original: all the “zones” there are not the brainchild of his mind, but ideas that have been worn and tested by various peacekeepers. So this “revolutionary” simply repeats the words of other uncles. By the way, the end of Libya began with the creation of a no-fly zone.
Mr. Sami Al-Kurdi, the former major, is also addedthat the rebels will cease to act in accordance with the peace plan 8 June. This number is the deadline set in the ultimatum of the opposition. From this day, the "rebels" will begin to "protect their people," as al-Kurdi said.
There are no particular details in the Russian press about what constitutes the SSA today. But something the gentlemen "rebels" told western correspondents. Christopher Torchia (Associated Press, report from Istanbul) in The Washington Times from 4 Jun cites some data on "revolutionaries".
First, on Monday, Syrian activists announced a new coalition of rebel movements, with the goal of overcoming the deep divisions within the opposition in the fight against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad. (From this we can conclude that the opposition is still heterogeneous).
Secondly, at a press conference in Turkey, the rebels announced the formation of the Syrian front. This press conference looked quite presentable: here you will find billboards, simultaneous translation, and video presentations. (True, all these little things do not guarantee victory for the rebels).
Third, according to Khaled al-Okla, one of the organizers of the conference, everything will be coordinated around the SSA on the Turkish border. However, for the time being, the FSA participants admit that their commanders have limited operational control over the rebel groups in Syria, but the armed groups are under strong pressure from the government forces - with their tanks and artillery. (From this it is easy to understand that the Assad army is still strong).
Therefore, Mr. Al-Okla believes that the time has come to conclude some agreements or sign agreements on the coordination of “work in Syria”. In addition, he stated that his group has 12.000 fighters.
The rebels believe that Bashar Asad is responsible for the death of more than 13.000 people in Syria. The killings in the Hula are also the work of the Syrian army.
More opposition reported that the new front of the rebel struggle already has 100 battalions.
It’s with these forces that I would not take on trust these numbers - the oppositionists are going to “protect the people”, defying the Annan plan.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, however, with militant rebels did not agree. He is convinced that the Annan plan is an integral part of the resolution of the Syrian conflict. He also stressed that the UN does not discuss military intervention in the Syrian conflict.
However, we already understood that the representatives of the FAS rely not on the UN, but on the “international community”. (Apparently, the UN still has not slipped - by the standards of terrorists - into the abyss of radicalization). If there was no support from this community itself - information, communication, financial, and weapon - no PAS or there would be no SNA (Syrian National Council) and in nature would not exist. Western democracies pour oil on fire. All this “Arab Spring” has much more Western roots than Eastern ones.
After the massacre in El-Hula, America — through the mouths of high-ranking officials — every day insists that a full-scale civil war is about to begin in Syria and that only the resignation of Bashar al-Assad can save the people of Syria. And in order to “put aside” him, the White House, in a company with its allies, is now engaged in “preparing the transfer of political power in the country”. Xnumx june about it right сказал The official representative of the American administration is Jay Carney. Here are his words: “Together with international partners we are focused on preparing the transfer of political power in Syria ... The sooner the power is transferred, the better the Syrian people will be, the more chances there will be to prevent the bloody war between religious groups from escalating.”
Journalists asked Mr. Carney whether Bashar Assad had lied when he said the government troops were not involved in the Hula massacre over the weekend, and Carney replied shortly: “Yes.”
Carney, like other US officials, such as Hillary Clinton, believes that Russia should play an important role in organizing a peaceful transfer of power from the Syrian President to the opposition. Carney, like Clinton, seems to believe that Russia is about to change its position on Syria. However, these gentlemen and ladies have long been saying that they almost reached an agreement with Russia, but “almost” is not considered. No matter what Karni and Clinton say, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saidthat Russia considers it necessary to force all parties to the Syrian conflict to peace negotiations. Our comrade Lavrov is very stubborn ...
Iii. Russians don't give up
And Putin is also stubborn. Angela Merkel did not argue with him on the Syrian issue, but only agreed. Everything in Syria must be resolved through diplomacy. However, after Germany, the Russian president visited France, and there Monsieur Hollande decided take the bull by the horns: “The Bashar Assad regime behaved in a completely unacceptable and unacceptable manner and committed acts that discredited it. Bashar al-Assad’s refusal of power is the only way out of this situation. ”
Vladimir Putin in response to this сказал Hollande: “And how many civilians died from the other side, at the hands of the so-called militants. did you count? There, too, is going through hundreds. Our goal is to reconcile all parties to the conflict. We do not choose ours and not ours, we want to take care of everyone. ”
Hollande in general, from the very beginning of his presidency, somehow didn’t fit well into the Syrian issue. At least he did not take into account the material side of the issue for Russia: after all, Moscow has its own interests in Damascus. Not to mention the fact that 50.000 of Russian citizens lives in Syria, and 1.200 military specialists work there. Instead of creating a prestige in the international arena, step by step, Hollande, the new president, does everything to show himself from the worst side. Even the Americans, supporters of the overthrow of Assad, are not as hasty as Monsieur Hollande.
“It is interesting to note,” writes Lyubov Lyulko (Pravda.ru), - that Hollande annoys not only Moscow, but also Berlin, the German "Spiegel" reports. Thus, the representative of the Bundestag Committee on International Affairs, Ruprecht Polenz, said that even an air operation, as in the case of Gaddafi, is impossible due to the power of the Syrian army, an incomprehensible situation resembling a civil war, and the heterogeneity of the opposition. This suggests that Hollande is still acting on emotions, demonstrating professional incompetence. ”
Exactly. Proficiency - instead of political authority.
3 and 4 June, the Russia-EU summit was held in St. Petersburg. The European Union was represented by European Council President Herman Van Rompuy and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, and Russia by President Vladimir Putin. Many expectedthat at this summit, the EU will put pressure on Russia - so that Vladimir Putin will finally take a "tough" position towards Bashar Assad. (One private opinion for example: “Putin is a criminal guilty of genocide in Syria. We need to introduce sanctions against his regime. " Signed: coastwalker).
However, it turned out that the parties at the summit came to the general opinion: Kofi Annan’s plan in Syria has no alternative. Lying to me will not give the most democratic source in the world - "Voice of America":
“At a joint press conference with Putin, van Rompuy noted that both sides need to work together to achieve an immediate end to the violence in Syria and to begin the process of a peaceful transfer of power:
“The situation in Syria is terrifying. The Syrian regime must immediately stop all forms of violence and fully support the UN observation mission. The European Union and Russia may have differences, but we fully agree that Kofi Annan’s plan is the best way to end the violence, prevent civil war and find a peaceful, long-term solution. We must unite efforts to make this happen, and try to develop common appeals. ”
Catherine Ashton, head of EU diplomacy, who also participated in the summit, echoes Rompuy: "We want to work closely with Russia to find a way to end the violence and to support Kofi Annan’s six-point plan."
The differences of the parties at the summit were that Moscow refused to support Western initiatives about the "leaving" of Assad.
Iv. There is an opinion
Opinion first. Syrian conflict has become a business. Yuri Raykhel считаетthat now in Syria, the clashes have broken up into a multitude of point conflicts, and here there is no civil war, but looting, extortion, blackmail, contract killings, carried out by the all-powerful petty field commanders who lead the gangs. Such banditry has become commonplace in the areas of Homs and Idlib and is moving further north. The activities of the gangs are mixed up with ethnic and religious hostility, which, according to Reichel, is tantamount to a catastrophe for a heterogeneous Syrian society, where representatives of different religions and ethnic groups have peacefully lived together for centuries. As a result, the Hobbes war of all against all began in Syria.
However, against the background of the war, the survival of the fittest is also noticeable - and this is no longer Hobbes, but Spencer, we note from ourselves. Quote from the article by Yu. Raichel:
“As you know, to whom the war, and to whom and the mother is native. Someone shoots, and someone does business on it. Thus, the seizure of someone else’s real estate, imposing a roof on businessmen and merchants, kidnapping people for ransom and even receiving money for mediation in search of the abducted became common in this part of Syria (Homs, Idlib. - O. Ch.). In Homs, for several months, something like a virtual market of people has been operating between the warring Sunni and Alawite districts, where an exchange of stolen Alawite and Sunni is taking place. In Islam, the life of a woman has never been valued more than that of men.
In Homs, the picture during exchanges is the opposite: since many fear for the vulnerability of women and the honor of the family, the captured female can be exchanged for several men. Only business, no religion. ”
The inter-ethnic and confessional conflict in Syria has spread to Lebanon, continues Reichel. It is quite possible to assume that in Lebanon, there was a weakening of the supporters of Prime Minister Najib Azmi Mikati, known for his loyalty to Assad. Through Lebanon, weapons are being smuggled into Syrian militants, and the militants themselves are moving along the same paths. Maybe the forces behind the conflict in Lebanon plan to replace Mikati with the opposition Saad Hariri, behind whom are Saudi Arabia and the West.
The Syrian conflict, writes Reichel, turns into a business project in which the warring parties forget about the ideology and remember only the benefits. In Lebanon, Shiite Hezbollah activists were recently arrested for selling weapons to Syrian Sunni rebels.
The second opinion. Intervention in Syria - the road to political vacuum and chaos. After all, reacting to one tragedy, it is impossible to promote another. So считает Henry Kissinger.
They write:
“... The doctrine of humanitarian intervention differs sharply from the traditional concept of foreign policy; it ignores categories such as national interest and the balance of power, which are rejected due to their lack of a moral aspect. It is based not on the desire to confront a strategic threat, but on the desire to eliminate conditions that violate the principles of government that are considered to be universal and suitable for all.
If such a form of intervention is adopted as a principle of foreign policy, serious questions will arise concerning the future strategy of the United States. Should the United States consider it its duty to support any popular uprising against any regime that is not democratic, including those whose existence has until now been considered very important for preserving the current world order? Should, say, Saudi Arabia be considered a permanent ally, or does it remain so only until the appearance of protest demonstrations on its territory? Should America recognize the right of other countries to interfere in the affairs of neighboring states on behalf of their “brothers in faith” or ethnically related peoples? ”
“As far as intervention in Syria is concerned,” Kissinger continues, “here the humanitarian goals and strategic objectives coincide. Located in the heart of the Muslim world, Syria, under the rule of Bashar al-Assad, helps Iran to implement its strategy in the Mediterranean. It supports the Hamas movement, which does not recognize the right of the Israeli state to exist, and the Hezbollah grouping, which destroys the integrity of Lebanon. The United States has reasons, both strategic and humanitarian, to want to overthrow the Assad regime and set such a goal for international diplomacy. On the other hand, strategic interests do not always turn into a pretext for war, because, if that were so, the need for diplomacy would have disappeared by itself. ”
Kissinger warns Americans about the intervention: “... Remember, we already once made a mistake in the past, arming the Taliban to fight against the Soviet invaders, who then became a threat to our security. Will we repeat this mistake again? ”
For military intervention, strategic or humanitarian, according to Kissinger, two prerequisites are necessary. First, it is a consensus about the future system of government, which should be established after the overthrow of the regime. If the ruler is only biased, the intervention will create a political vacuum in the country - and as a result a civil war may break out, because armed groups will start to fight for power, and the neighboring countries will support various opposing sides. Secondly, the political objectives of the invasion should not only be clearly expressed, but also achievable. Henry Kissinger doubts that the question regarding Syria will be tested for compliance with such requirements. Can America get involved in a conflict that is increasingly becoming a sectarian? No, he can not. Reacting to one tragedy, Kissinger concludes, one cannot contribute to the emergence of another.
The third opinion. No need to go to Syria! Does not advise climb there Steve Chapman:
“The negative side of winning a war is that it makes the next war more attractive. The defeat of the Serbs in Kosovo paved the way for the invasion of Afghanistan. Against the background of initial successes there, we decided that a couple of trifles would be dealt with Iraq. The victory of 2011 of the year in Libya invites us to get involved in a conflict in Syria. ”
Note that Steve Chapman is a member of the editorial board of the Chicago Tribune, a man who is not at all a fan of Bashar Assad. This, by the way, is easy to understand from the following quote:
“In this case, the temptation is easy to understand. Syrian dictator Bashar Asad is actually pushing the international community to intervene: recently, loyal troops killed more than a hundred people, carrying out executions of entire families. ”
That is, the "great temptation", obviously, concerns the defense of human rights, violated by Assad's murderer in Syria.
Chapman discourages crawling into Syria, not because he feels sorry for Assad, but because the operation in Syria is a much more risky venture than the campaign to eliminate Gaddafi.
The opinion about risk belongs, in fact, not to Chapman, but to Robert Paper, director of the Chicago Security and Terrorism Project at the University of Chicago.
In Syria, the situation is not as favorable as in Libya. The rebels lack support, and their supporters are scattered throughout the country. Air strikes are useless where government troops and insurgents are fighting closely, and one cannot be distinguished from the sky from the sky. Yes, you can send ground troops there, but this means the likelihood of many casualties among the US military.
Therefore, the price of victory is the most important question for Barack Obama.
Moreover, such an invasion “would be suspiciously like a conquest, rather than an act of altruism. In the end, Syria has long been in conflict with its neighbor Israel, which is our close ally. ”
The Syrians, the author is developing this topic, will suspect that NATO forces "are doing the dirty work of a hated Zionist entity." Oh, the Tehran mullahs will try to enlighten them on this. Indeed, in Tehran, the operation in Syria will be perceived as a prelude to the attack on Iran - and therefore Assad will be helped.
Therefore, Chapman does not advise Obama to demonstrate America’s “leadership” by intervening in Syria. He writes: “Critics demand that Obama show“ leadership ”by doing something to help Syrian civilians. But sometimes leadership is to know what not to do — and not to do it. ”
It is impossible not to recognize this point of view sound.
The fourth opinion, owned by a Russian writer and publicist Leonid Mlechin: "... Russia's pragmatic interest is to get rid of this burden." Mlechin пишет:
“... The Syrian regime is one of the toughest and most cruel. There alone the sea is bottled. I know from personal experience. Our film crew flew to Damascus along with the Russian foreign minister, who arrived there on a visit. There was quite a lot of free time, and we decided to take pictures of the city in order not to use someone else’s chronicle. They asked permission: “No problem. We will give the representative of the special service, he organizes everything. ” As soon as they found a point, received a blessing from our accompanying person, deployed the equipment, a representative of the regional state security immediately appeared and forbade shooting. Not a single frame was taken away. But these were not secret objects. ”
A similar order of things, according to Mlechin, fed up with the Syrians.
Russia, however, to support Syria is “at least unwise”. “We,” writes Mlechin, “supported Saddam Hussein, and now the new authorities are looking at us with hostility. The same thing happened with Libya. You need to be realistic, seeing what is happening there. The winners will remember later this friendship. ”
Yes, after Assad someone else will come to power. Someone angry. Any radical Islamist. Most likely, writes Mlechin, so be it. There is no one more to come to power there: “Can a democratic opposition be ripening under a dictatorship? Yes, it was burned there with a hot iron. Naturally, in such conditions the most radical forces become the head of the opposition. But it does not follow from this that it is necessary to preserve rigid autocratic regimes. The only path that will lead Syria into a civilized community is through democracy. And the states of this region have already demonstrated how this happens. "
Mlechin says that military intervention is the last thing, and states: “Unfortunately, there is no single position of the great powers. Assad would have kept himself different if he had not felt the support of Moscow and Beijing. ”
According to the author, "Russia's pragmatic interest is to get rid of this burden." And without that, Syria cost Russia “many billion dollars. Why on earth did we take this money from our own people? Gifts should be made to women, not states. ”
Fifth opinion owned by Syria's urban middle class: “This is not about freedom, not about democracy. We are at the center of a religious war. ” About what the middle class thinks in today's Syria, told Rainer Hermann («Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung», Germany).
The urban middle class in Damascus, in his words, “strives to live” and does not understand bloodshed. He wants peace and stability.
Four years ago, Yara bought a condominium in Ain Terma. The young chemist (alavitka) at that time could not, of course, assume that in three years an uprising would begin against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. In Ain Terma today dominated by predominantly Sunni rebels. Yara returned to Mezze, in the relatively safe area of Damascus, where government offices and embassies are located.
And now she travels every day from Mezze to the south - to her work in the food laboratory. The road takes half an hour. Yara told a German journalist about a teacher who taught in Sunni Artus, but came here from the nearby Alawite village of Katana. At school, the teacher was threatened with death, after which he was shot dead at the school gates.
“Soon all Syria will be like Homs,” fears the young woman.
People like Yara, urban emigrants from the educated middle class, are considered supporters of democratic reforms in Syria. It is believed that they want a stable economy and a safe future. But it seems that with stability everything is over.
“This is not about freedom, not about democracy. We are at the center of a religious war. ” So says the young woman.
In the food laboratory in which Yara works, there is a real “religious mosaic”. Nothing has changed here, despite the problems throughout the country. Sunni, Alawites and Christians work side by side. “The question of which religion we adhere to is viewed by us as tactless,” says Marwan, head of the laboratory. He is a Christian. Last night, he said, people walked through the Christian quarter of Damascus, in which he lives, and shouted: “Long live Jihad!” His predecessor gathered five bags of things this winter - and moved with his family to one of the European Union countries.
Sunnica Mona also lives in constant fear. It seems to her that she may be attacked at any time when she goes to work - only cost her to go beyond the limits of Sunnite Artus. Now she, like Yar, is going to move to a safe place in the center of Damascus.
Sarah Sarah and her husband also returned to Damascus - fearing for the lives of two children. For more than a year, following a new fashion, they taught their children in one of the most expensive private schools in the green countryside. But then the kidnapping of the children of rich parents began ...
But also in Damascus scary.
Sarah’s two brothers now live in France. She says that she is tired of daily fear - and the thought that a person can be killed only for his faith. For two months now she wants to buy new clothes, but no longer believes that the revival will return some day to the shopping streets of Damascus. Her family no longer goes outside with a light heart. Only work gives a little sense of life.
Yara, Mona, Sarah and Marwan can go to their work. Other companies, according to Hermann, were forced to close down due to military clashes in the country. But also for the workers of the food laboratory, which were discussed above, the risk of losing their job increases. Violence is getting closer to them. Understanding bloodshed, Rainer Hermann ends the article, can hardly be found in places like this.
Observed and translated by Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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