Here we have frequent complaints from a single category of people that we, the authors, in our materials do not draw conclusions on the topic of "what to do." That is, everyone who writes about the topic of the day simply has to not only point out the problem, but also prepare and write down concrete steps to solve it. But even better - to solve the problem. Immediately so as not to go far.
But within the framework of the minimum program - to chew and put in the reader’s mouth so that the latter could only swallow, bleed air and express either “approve” or the highest “disapprove”. And you live there as you like.
Alas, but no. And as before, we consider it necessary to rely on those readers whose heads are not the place where they eat, but where they think. And who does not ask questions like "no, well, what for the article that the author suggests, I did not understand." No, it is clear that the main thing is to express your “fe” in the comments, this is understandable. But many of us are just getting high when clever people draw another article in the comments.
So now, when we talk (once again) about the space program of Russia, more precisely, about its fragments. Almost without conclusions, because other people must draw conclusions.
So, here recently, we tore the button accordions and pierced the tambourines, happily accompanying the Council’s approval by the RAS Council on Space for the construction of a habitable base on the Moon. Not all, of course, but many media outlets rumbled on this topic.
Program, yes, not a program, but a Program! Two observatories (one for radio astronomy, the second for the study of cosmic radiation) and three automatic data collection stations in the appendage. "Moon" №№25, 26 and 27.
By the spring of next year, the lunar program should be ready in terms of, and as long as the Americans with their lunar orbital platform are poking around there, we will have it all up and running.
Let me discuss something from this program.
The schedule is as follows:
2019 year. The lunar program is issued, it is obtained from the budget and work begins.
2022 year. Three key modules, which are to become the basis of the lunar orbital station, were built, put into orbit and docked with the ISS. And before that, the modules will be something to work out there.
2025 year. Completion of training and education on the ISS. By this time, the base lunar orbital module and the Federation spacecraft should already be ready. On the "Federation" as it were charged with the delivery of crews. By that time, the Federation should already test fly to the moon in automatic mode without a crew.
2032 year. At this point, the manned missions to the moon have been worked out, the modular platform in orbit around the moon has been assembled and ready to receive crews, its orbit, and you can start installing observatories on the satellite surface.
Somewhere in the 2030 area of the year, landing of watches begins, which will assemble and erect all this.
2035 year. The Russian lunar base is moving to a permanent job.
Wow Wow Beautifully drawn. Sorry, not me, really would be proud.
Yes, the picture of our cosmic future looks quite ... fabulous. I would say fantastic. Especially when you consider that according to the previous “big plan” of “Roscosmos”, our permanent base on the moon should be functioning for three years already. Her work, I remind you, is tentatively planned for 2015 year.
We do not have a base on the moon, but we want the type. Okay. Let's start with what we don't have yet, okay? Somewhat boring goes, but you can compare the processes in the time interval.
So, what we do not have a list.
1. Super heavy rocket. Which will have to output first to the ISS, and then to the Moon, all these observatories, modules, and so on.
More precisely, we have a rocket, it is “Energy” with a payload of 100 + tons. But Mr. Rogozin does not notice her point-blank and does not know about her. And because we will develop a rocket again. From scratch.
They say (I do not dare to assert) that the design work on the Phoenix launch vehicle began in the 2018 year, the first launch from the East is scheduled for the 2034 year.
2. Launch pad under the "Phoenix". She, too, yet. Construction is planned to start in 2026 year, and the first launch is scheduled for 2028 year.
3. Manned ship "Federation" either. More precisely, there is something there, the work seems to be going on from 2009, but we were promised the first flight in 2015, then moved to 2019, and then to 2023.
Notice the discrepancy? So I noticed. When there is a series of populist statements, it’s one thing, but when it’s broken up, it’s completely different.
How can one start building such facilities and land astronauts on the Moon and deliver parts of facilities in 2030, if the first launch of the launch vehicle is planned only for 2034 year?
Well, let's say, the Federation will fly. What from that? Well, astronauts will land, jump on the moon, come back. Observatories require a truck of remarkable power. It is a fact.
In general, it is obvious that the plans were written by different people. Meanwhile, the plans are ... right, money. Not even money, here we are talking about amounts.
And what about money? And with the money, in short, as usual - they steal. Kudrin was quoted by many on the subject of the fact that 760 billion rubles were stolen following the results of the checks of the Accounts Chamber in Roskosmos.
Everything is simple: you can believe, you can not believe. Personally, my opinion is that Kudrin is hard to believe. Firstly, we all know perfectly well what this person is, secondly, to realize his dream of universal surrender to the West, Kudrin still doesn’t count, and thirdly (and this is the main thing), Kudrin will never their readings are not responding.
It is clear that they steal from us wherever possible. And "Roskosmos" - has already been proven - no exception at all. The only question is how much in reality.
Here on the "Eastern" cosmodrome there were screams for billions, but they found out that they had stolen "only" 5% of the total cost. Where are they stealing less now? Colleagues have written more than once about the Pentagon’s inflated budget, where 15 (and even 20) percent flies away, dries out and evaporates. So 5% - well, quite in our times.
But money is only half the problem, if not less. Although - the problem is all the same, no matter how twist it.
The NASA budget for 2017 was 19,5 billion dollars. The budget of "Roscosmos" in the same year - 2,6 billion dollars.
Even if they steal four times as many there as we do, it’s still not to be caught up. Even taking into account the fact that we still have a Soviet backlog, do not overtake. Alas.
The main question: why do we need this lunar station?
To wipe the nose of the Americans? So we already wiped out. Everybody. Falling into the ocean and scattered in near-Earth space satellites (including not their own), frequent accidents in which the storekeeper and the locksmith are to blame, and then on the list.
But - we are wringing like frogs in Krylov's fable, declaring that we can do everything. And tomorrow everything will be.
Very similar to the neighbors from Ukraine, one to one straight. There, too, that not a single day is another peremoga. And the next day zrada.
I don't care today whether Americans were on the moon or not. Rogozin is much more important. For him, the meaning of life is right to prove that astronauts did not land on the moon.
What's the difference? Do we have something to change from this?
Will we stop sending ships into space that are the modernized ships of Sergei Korolev on the rockets that Korolev and his associates designed and built?
The basis for such thoughts and doubts is the 2017 report of the aforementioned Roscosmos for the year, recently declassified and published.
In short - "everything is bad, although it could be worse."
Could it? It is possible, although according to the plan, the share of Russian exports of rocket and space technology should have been 2017% of the world in the 24,5 year, but in fact this figure was 8,5% (2016% in the 8,8 year).
And then immediately on the excuses from the "Roskosmos". It is clear that everything is to blame: the fall of the ruble, the sanctions, the machinations of "Ukraine (more on this below), the machinations of the Martians, dumping by the Americans (primarily SpaceX), and so on.
Sanctions ... Oh, yes. Roscosmos acknowledged that today it is unable to equip the equipment with “high-quality imported equipment.” Tales about import substitution were told to us and even showed, everything is clear here.
With regards to launches. The document states that, according to the plan, Roskosmos should have launched 25 devices, and in fact launched only 17. Here we will not take into account four launches of purely military purpose; they are passing through the Department of the Defense Ministry. And the remaining four - "on the conscience" of Ukraine.
Ukraine, having ceased to supply the products of Yuzhmash and the Kharkov NPO Elektropribor, actually removed the launch vehicles Zenit and Rokot from the launching tables, land and sea. In addition to the PH, there are problems with the Briz-KM accelerating blocks, where, on the one hand, the Ukrainian components seem to be replaced by 100%, and on the other hand, launches through the Briz-KM are occasionally postponed.
That is the question: what do we need space for?
Even if you look twice at the Federal Space Program, it is still not clear. If you listen to Rogozin (it is still a pleasure, of course) - our main task is to wipe the nose of the Americans. Why - is also not clear. It seems that from this scrapping something in our lives will change drastically. Then the question is what?
If we are talking about the "prestige of the country", let's remove this right away. The prestige of the country is made up not only of work in space and with space, not only in “demonstrating the flag” by dragging the ancient trough across the seas, but also of many components. In which, basically, everything is not as good as we would like.
Absolutely it is not necessary to regard all the above as “let's build a better deal”. No, roads should be built on the ground, the road should be paved into space. Especially since we were pioneers there. Position requires, as they say the French.
But just to take it with complete foolishness to be killed about the moon we do not need is nonsense. We do not have a new spacecraft, we do not have automatic interplanetary stations, we do not have much. The main thing - there is no own orbital station, and which could be carried out any tests and experiments, without fear of unnecessary eyes.
And there is no silenok. Accidents and recent falls show that with the implementation we also have problems above the roof.
The current head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, apparently realizing this, is today trying to shift the execution of the program from 2022 to 2026-2027 years. Yes, these dates were once approved by the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Government Dmitry Rogozin, but ... Apparently, “this” Dmitry Rogozin has more information than “that”.
Today, they are trying to save the situation in Roscosmos with very ambiguous measures, namely, by merging all types of space production into a single rocket and space holding.
If everything goes according to this plan, then in the same system as Roscosmos there will be:
Concern "Almaz-Antey" (air defense / missile defense systems).
Tactical Missiles Corporation (Zircon, Dagger, Avangard).
Concern "Radio Engineering and Information Systems" (communications, radar and related equipment).
It seems nothing looks that way. All participants are connected if not with space (here!) Then with rocket technology. And, if you look at the reports, they are able to earn money (especially Diamonds, to which the queue stands a year ahead), and scandals are somehow not observed around.
So it is possible - I emphasize - this is the way out.
After all, one can definitely say that despite all the dances with Rogozin's tambourine around Roscosmos, today they simply do not understand why they are needed at all. Where to develop, how, and, most importantly - for what.
Korolev knew the answer to this question. Rogozin is not Korolev, and to the height of the chief designer of our space industry, a populist journalist and a loser politician will not be thrown into a trampoline.
A booster rocket of type "Energy" or "Phoenix" can be tried. But the "Phoenix" is yet to be created.
So "Roskosmos" is still coming shocks and shakes. In the name of what, one wonders?
The prestige of the country or is it money?
You know, you can laugh at Americans as much as you want, but they have the answer. Money. Moreover, space with the right approach is a lot of money.
Why in the United States so calmly throwing huge sums on Russian engines for missiles and billions on all sorts of toys like Hubble and James Webb?
And because it is profitable and profitable.
The statistics is simple, and simple is deadly.
Services of putting cargo into orbit in the total volume of space profits are less than 10%. Pure military troubles - about 11%.
Scientific developments give 3,6%. Moreover, they still need to apply.
Where is the money, Billy?
Ground service of the orbital grouping - 35%.
But even this is not important. The main thing is the profits from the broadcast of the tele-picture, communication services and space-related services (weather forecasts, global positioning, observation of the earth's surface) - 40,1%.
Actually, that's where money is made in space.
It is clear why Rogozin runs so.
For too long, Russia has been resting on the Soviet laurels, believing that it will remain the cheapest and most reliable cab driver forever. However, the events of the last two years have shown that the world is already able to react to changes, but we are not.
And suddenly it turned out that we have competitors. And quite such rivals are toothy. You can water the Mask for a long time and persistently for everyone, but his rockets start flying more and more successfully. Unlike our advertised "Angara", which so far only flies on paper.
As a person versed in various visits to various enterprises, I will try to predict that the civilian company Roscosmos, which seems to be rather closed today, after merging with the bison of the military industry, will turn into a black box following the model of Soviet super secret structures.
Experienced, and probably profitable. Today, Rogozin’s rant words about increasing the responsibility and self-motivation of employees is pure Potemkin’s village. That is, just a deception of listeners, nothing more. The old Soviet laborers finally retire either in retirement or in their own space. Who is changing is also a problem.
The simple hard workers come to replace them, for whom the work on space is just a job, nervous, hemorrhoid and not very well paid.
So let us forget about this “self-motivation”, it’s simply nowhere to take. And all the cries of Rogozin - just cries of Rogozin, which lead nowhere. If the state does not want to motivate the worker, he will not replace the entire state. And it will be difficult to motivate the employee.
Meanwhile, not far off is a very unpleasant moment. The end of the life of the ISS.
And here you really have to think about what to do next. Either by creating an orbital station, which is also a lot of doubts, or our space will remain purely military, judging by who will work on the programs.
And, as it seems to me, it is necessary to begin precisely with the fact that we should decide what our cosmos is and where.
Gentlemen liberals, of course, will say that we must surrender. While all is not plundered. And in their own way they will be right, since the rejection of our completely incomprehensible Federal space program is the saved 92 billion rubles. In year.
But it is also about 200 enterprises, which employ a quarter of a million people. It is clear, "did not fit into the market." Can be buried along with the space program.
Merge civil "Roskosmos" with three weapons Concerns, of course, will do without such measures. And there is work for people, and specialists will not scatter to competitors.
Another question: why the lunar bases and other science fiction surrendered to military concerns? Answer: no matter what. This is a plus and a minus at the same time.
The space program, enclosed in the military framework, is the degradation of pure water. The world today is such that, perhaps, only China can independently pull the space program in all respects. Close in the "top secret" military developments - to lose all or almost all of the future cooperation.
So I think that Roskosmos should be left civil, but the goals and objectives should be reviewed.
And we need to start not with the implementation of frankly idiotic "lunar" projects that will not give anything but the developed billions.
And we need to develop new, cheap and reliable launch vehicles in two classes: medium and light, well, the same “Angara” brought to mind. With a target to capture the market for commercial launches in each of the segments.
The program is making money. Yes, I'm about GLONASS.
The production of GLONASS-K satellites was stopped, despite the fact that the satellites were good in all respects. But with a share of foreign components under 80%. With the beginning of the sanctions, this satellite model has ended.
Well, they started to launch GLONASS-M again. The previous generation with worse performance, but with a smaller share of imported components. Well, we have what we have, as the Ukrainians would say.
Now GLONASS-K1 satellites are being manufactured “on available components” (I translate into Chinese ones) with the prospect of switching to the K2 version as domestic components are developed. It remains only to do nothing - to build factories, to give birth to equipment and personnel, and the staff also to train.
To date, the “share of imports” (all the same China and smuggling from Europe and the USA) has been reduced to 40%, but only on the most important projects, such as the global positioning system. In civil satellites, it is still 70%.
And this is under the loud reports that "we have import substitution in everything." Yeah, absolutely like that! All have already been replaced. But it does not want to fly into space, it is substituted.
Here are the priorities in the development of Roscosmos. These, not fairy tales about the "moon tractor on the lunar base" performed by Rogozin.
By the way, I’ll add one more. As for motivation, popularization and other things in terms of space. It would be nice to take a couple of workshops from Shoigu. After the general manager turned tank shooting at world-class shows, only a little inferior to the Olympic under-games, one could learn. Advertising, motivation and other components.
Saving Roscosmos, of course, is necessary. Moreover, there is still something to save. But to save by real actions, and not science fiction projects for the development of the budget ... the lunar surface.
Such a strange Russia. Cosmos: the obvious and the incredible
- Roman Skomorokhov
- Photos used:
- Jonny lindner
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