Belarus-2018. Crisis that is not talked about
In our country, they write a lot and interestingly about the beautiful country of Ukraine, unfortunately, much less is written about the country of Belarus and is not so interesting at all. But from a political point of view, oddly enough, Belarus is much more relevant today than the same Ukraine. As a matter of fact, in Ukraine everything has already happened and happened: it exploded. And the processes there are already by inertia. Well, call me new, interesting political events in this very country over the past year. Two years?..
But Belarus, undeservedly overlooked by the Russian media, has recently been generating a lot of interesting information that few people have noticed, however. In short, the freezing period is over - the country finally went hawking. For example, such a seemingly insignificant news: in the Republic of Belarus since last year bridges began to fail one after another (still of Soviet construction). As you know, one of the sources of income for the official Minsk is transit. An analogue of the Russian "Plato" was introduced there much earlier. This is only a beautiful legend that goes about “socialist Belarus”, in fact, everything has been there for a long time “for a coin”.
And suddenly it turned out that the very transport infrastructure is not forever, and even, rather, vice versa. By the way, the Soviet power is scolded in Belarusian newspapers for bad bridges, scolded. Apparently, when the Soviet Union had to build forever. And just for an independent Belarus, this very failure of bridges became a complete and absolute surprise. And in Russia, they practically did not write about it, while the heroic Belarusian sappers built a pontoon bridge (last year), and the whole of Belarus actively commented on it. Well, you say, "bridges", so what? Is this a disaster? End of the world?
No, of course, but when the country is small, not rich, transit is very important, and many bridges of the same age (created in 70-e / 80-e) according to standard designs, this is, you know, a sign of trouble. All the 25 years of his reign, Mr. Lukashenko, actively “used them,” earning a “denyuzhku” from this, but did not want to invest in their reconstruction from the word at all. Sailed. Simultaneous repair / restoration, as we understand, requires a lot of money. Independence, speak?
Of the five emergency bridges, repairs to three — across Pripyat, Western Dvina and Sozh — will be completed by 2020. The fate of the bridges in Bobruisk will be decided by local authorities
"The problem is global." The third bridge broke in a month
Headlines of Belarusian newspapers were full of ...
That is, for Lukashenko this spring the topic of bridges became the first serious shock. He thought that the Soviet reinforced concrete bridges would stand forever ... And they (suddenly!) Began to pour one after another. The reason is clear: they were built long ago and were calculated on a completely different "traffic." And all these years, Alexander G. “earned” them. But he did not invest money in the repair / reconstruction. And suddenly it was over. The tale is over. As we all understand, the construction of a new bridge instead of a worn out one is long, difficult and, most importantly, very expensive. So expensive that even European bankers began to offer their "help". But you see, the bridge is not a tractor factory, and certainly not a nuclear power plant.
Much easier. But even supporting the transport infrastructure of an “independent” Belarus is difficult to achieve. The results of the “Chinese modernization” were no less a shock for Lukashenko and the Belarusian leadership as a whole. What is the "Chinese modernization"? Russian journalists are not working, not a damn thing is working, all the political prospects of Mr. Poroshenko are painted. There was such a “megaproject” in Belarus - to modernize the industry “for Chinese money”. It is clear to everyone that evil and greedy "Russo oligarho" live to the east of the Belarusian border and cannot be trusted in any way, but good and honest Chinese will be happy to help the fraternal Belarusian people.
By the way, about the birds. At the time, the USSR very seriously helped in the modernization and industrialization total Of china. And, as we understand, the Chinese didn’t have much money (as well as the Union, by the way). But it helped. But the “superpower China” could not or did not want to reverse the procedure for small Belarus. Or did it very, very crooked. That is, China "allocated credit"! Credit, Carl. Lukashenka simply apologized to the Celestial, and received a loan. But not just a loan ... but a related commodity loan. In fact, the Chinese put their equipment on credit (not the highest quality and not the most modern!) And mounted it with their own forces. Nobody allocated real money: why? But to pay for the loan will have to live money, but not white. rubles. Beautiful, yes?
The Belarusian economy did not receive any special exhaust from this “Chinese money”. The total amount of Chinese loans issued to Belarus over the past decade amounted to about 15 billion dollars. How skillfully the Chinese trade: they sell goods, they load their people with work, and they have respect from the Belarusians. In response to tens of billions of "living" money, we have nothing but threats to "go to the West." Maybe something needs to be "corrected in the conservatory"?
There was no “breakthrough” as a result of Chinese “investments” in Belarus, the country did not reach a new level, breakthrough technologies did not appear, but the level of debt burden has increased dramatically. And that's it! Suddenly it turned out that the Chinese do not intend to “invest” more in Belarus. “Lyabov” suddenly ended, further cooperation for the Belarusian side will consist in the payment of those very heavy loans. And yes, the products of the “modernized” Belarusian enterprises are not needed by the Chinese for nothing. They need real money - dollars, of course.
And this “Batka” understood all this quite recently, that he is not needed for any Chinese, and they do not intend to help him. The whole “loud-boiling” friendship with the great China turned out to be for Minsk only a propaganda fake. The Belarusian leadership was divorced as children, promising “cooperation” and issuing an express loan to the stale junk. Lukashenko also hoped to regularly dangle in Beijing, sing sweet songs about friendship and get free billions ... Not a ride. You will not believe Lukashenko finally understood this completely recently. And this, too, was a shock for the entire Belarusian leadership.
So their whole “Chinese strategy” is just a collection of propaganda tinsel. Maybe I don’t understand something, but in my unenlightened opinion, to get a commodity credit for 15 "Lard greens" it was not necessary to bow to the belt in China. Further more. The already famous trip to Orsha (famous in the Republic of Belarus) was another shock for Lukashenka: Orsha was a pilot project, there they hoped to roll in a new strategy of “industrialization”. Serious money was invested in the region with the largest performances of “parasites” ... Lukashenko arrived and saw only completely rotten and collapsed Soviet factories. And it really "zakolbasilo." He really lost his temper.
In order to gain popularity, Lukashenka loves in public to shout at negligent subordinates (bad boyars!), It has always been so, but this time the indignation was sincere, the president simply “broke off”. That is, today, despite all the infusions from the state, the Soviet giants and middle peasants of the Belarusian industry have decayed safely, being at the same time in good state ownership. And just in Orsha (the NATO base under which the Belarusian allies like to scare us so much) Lukashenko suddenly realized that this is the end. That all the means and opportunities are completely exhausted, and in front only a deaf dead end and nothing more. That there will be no "new industrialization".
And so on, on trifles (the Russian media do not work, they don’t catch mice!), - there is a drought in Belarus this year! Well, who knows about this? Who! And in Belarus, drought! And there will be no harvest ... And agriculture and its products mean so much for this not the most advanced and not the richest country. I am not joking: the gods were angry with Alexander Grigoryevich (or did he angered them?), Well, what else would explain such a set of “surprises”: bridges fall apart, the crop dries up, plants rot, loans do not give ...
And besides, in the conditions of an exacerbation of the economic crisis, a struggle at the top and a witch hunt began: the KGB first “pressed” the customs officers (!), Then the officials, including those close to Lukashenko (!), Then launched the “doctors' case”. Yes, while we were watching the ups and downs of the Skripale family, more gloomy events took place in Belarus. Spring / summer - there are arrests in Belarus. First, they took "corrupt officials", then doctors ... Also corrupt. Here we have heard a lot about the peripeties of Kiev politics, but for some reason, the information about the situation in Minsk is given as something about the situation in Timbuktu ...
But an interesting analogy suggests itself: the decline of Stalin’s rule (the most sunset!) Is a matter of “pest doctors”, the decline of Lukashenka’s rule is a matter of “corrupt doctors”. All "on the training manual." By the way, the reaction of the Belarusians themselves to these mass arrests (by the standards of a modern European country is massive) “pleases”, and the reaction is approximately as follows: a) so you should, ugly corrupt officials! b) Valiant organs, arrest all these scoundrels, I love you very much! In short, 53-th year in full growth.
That is, the political processes in Belarus, of course, are taking place, but with the Russian realities, they practically do not correlate in any way. This is a completely different country, with very different problems. And if for us 90 is already far away storythen for modern Belarusians the problems of 90-x / questions of 90-x are still relevant. The country is banal (and with the consent of its inhabitants!) Stuck in the past. And suddenly, all the problems and sores of the archaic (both politically and economically) countries sharply worsened. And it happened here and now. And the format of “political changes” in the form of the “doctors' case” indicates that modern Belarus is much closer almost to Russia-1953 than to Russia-2018.
But the problems of the Republic of Belarus are not limited to the above: Belarusians have historically earned a lot of money on smuggling into Russia, this took place before any sanctions, but at the end of the “tenths” and then step by step the “holes in the fence” are closed, which causes a very emotional reaction of the official Minsk where the proceeds from smuggling were considered almost as official treasury income, and there was such an unexpected nuisance. And just 2017-th was in many ways the decisive year in the matter of restoring the border in the western direction.
Once again: smuggling and revenues from it were for a “socially just”, “sister city” state not a “small addition to the diet”, but a rather serious item of income, and therefore the reaction to the border closure was extremely painful. A whole “branch of the economy” is destroyed because. That is (thank God!) Gradually Belarus is transferred to the status of a completely foreign state. And the flights from the Republic of Belarus (after the introduction of the legendary one-sided “visa-free” for 80-ti “civilized” countries) were redirected to international terminals in Russia, and the general border policy of Russia towards Minsk has changed significantly. “Trust” (not once deceived) ended, constant checks began ... And the news of the ban on the supply of “jelly”, meat products from Blue-eyed became a constant background of informational tapes. And for the archaic economy of the Republic of Belarus is one of the few sources of currency. But de facto “sly” prohibits. The reason is not so much economic as geopolitical - we are not obliged to “sponsor” an unfriendly regime. And they quite honestly and officially recommended to Belarusians to look for “other sales markets” for their “milk”.
That is, it is necessary to evaluate the professionalism of growing up. the authorities: no-one had organized loud scandals with the “best and last ally”, they simply began to “clean up behind the cordon”. For Belarus, which over the years of “independence” has become accustomed to openly parasitizing on Russia, this approach is absolutely fatal: Belarusians have no “own”, independent economy, and generally they have nowhere to go (and Mr. Medvedev has already indicated them) . That is, the situation for them, step by step, worsened, worsened, and then a de facto “ideal storm” occurred. This is what is happening now.
Well, or "perfect crash." And the IMF does not give the promised loan, Moscow also does not. The reason is the lack of promised reforms. In the evening of reform, in the morning money. And Lukashenka cannot carry out reforms without fearing to bring down the entire system of sole control over the country. But the “control system” is also slowly falling apart - the bickering of the starving elites begins, and Lukashenko can no longer “feed” them. Nothing. Even guest workers, who supplied billions of the necessary currency to the Republic of Belarus, suddenly “deteriorated”: the type of labor migration from Belarus changed - people began to move to permanent residence abroad more and more. Families move. And in general, they began to spend the money earned by hard work at the place of work ... that is, not in Belarus.
I agree, individually, all these problems are just annoying troubles present in the life of any state, but all at the same time and at the same time ... And then there's the “tax maneuver” for the Russian oil industry, breaking another hole in the Belarusian budget. And this is also here and now too. All the years of independence, Belarusians have lived at the expense of cheap Russian oil and do not imagine any other life. That is, up to a certain point, all this (Belarusian “pseudo-economy”) seemed to “work”, and then (that is, now) suddenly fell down.
This explains the frequent meetings of Lukashenko and Putin and the more harsh statements of A.G. Lukashenka to Russia. This explains the "wave of repression" and the resignation of the government. In complete despair, Lukashenko presses all the buttons, presses on all the pedals and pulls all the levers, trying to save what cannot be saved by definition. And yes, "missing for a week" and happily found in Kiev restaurant Petro Poroshenko is not politics, but just the arrests of leaders in Minsk - it is the most.
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