The main thing - do not play too much ("Polosa", Israel)
"This is their skinny devils Bermut water in the pond." V. Vysotsky
And indeed, some unidentified "devils" "bermut" water at our borders. Not calm in Egypt, the southern border has ceased to be peaceful, we have to recruit new divisions to protect it. But it is not sweeter in the north either, blood is being shed in Syria, and this will ultimately lead to Islamist power there. Good or bad Assad, but peace was on the border with Syria. And the so-called "Arab Spring" did not add us peace; the outlines of a new caliphate began to emerge. Peace does not even dream, more and more dreams about the war.
The IDF is in the process of preparation, our seamen recently adopted a new submarine in Germany, the Foreign Ministry is working on foreign policy support and alliances, and the gas pipeline is particularly interesting with Cyprus and Greece. All right, but somehow I do not believe in the spontaneous expression of will of the previously silent Muslim masses, who suddenly stirred up in the struggle for freedom. Somewhere there are puppeteers who really need this muddy water.
Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani
Russian mass media routinely nominate the United States for the role of puppeteers, who, in their opinion, strive to “democratize” everything around, but this argument is good only for Russian domestic consumption, but the United States really has a strong headache and quite large additional expenses from all these events. The US military budget for the financial year 2013 included 680 million dollars for the IDF to purchase additional batteries for the Iron Dome anti-missile system. In addition, the House of Representatives of the US Congress overwhelmingly passed a law under which the United States pledges, in addition to expanding military cooperation with Israel, to ensure the military superiority of the Jewish state in the Middle Eastern region. At the same time, Obama also has to maneuver in order to maintain positions in the Muslim world, which Israel’s military superiority, naturally over them, cannot please.
In order to muddy the water, and so that North Africa and the Middle East sway with Iran and Turkey, objective conditions are necessary: this is the presence of substantial interest and considerable financial capacity to realize these interests, provided, of course, there is no control over their spending representative power. It’s not necessary to search for the source of such opportunities for a long time - today, only the countries-exporters of hydrocarbons have a huge mass of free money, and Qatar is the richest among them.
Meet: QATAR
Qatar is an absolute monarchy, which is individually ruled by Emir Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani. The Al-Thani dynasty (Mohammed bin Thani is considered its founder) has been ruled by Qatar since 1850, a fairly respectable term. The area is slightly larger than 11 thousand square meters. km - It's about three times smaller than Israel. There are thousands of 300 citizens in this country and another 1,3 million are foreign workers and specialists who have no rights.
Initially, the Arabian tribes of Midadi, who came to Qatar from South Arabia, fished, extracted pearls, grew dates, and engaged in piracy with great enthusiasm - alongside maritime trade routes that delivered silk, fabrics and spices to Europe.
At the beginning of the 20 century, the population was replenished with so-called "Iranian Arabs", who fled from the persecution of the Persians. They brought Shiism to Qatar, which today professes about 10% of Qatari Muslims, and the opinion of themselves as the “fifth column”. This was particularly pronounced during the suppression of Shiite unrest in Bahrain, when the "Iranian Arabs" did not support the actions of the government and even that it was difficult to imagine in Qatar, held several strike actions. The fact is that in Qatar not only there are no democratic institutions and political parties, but trade unions are also prohibited by law. That is why strike action for Qatar is something especially new.
Before the era of hydrocarbons, the Qatari people were cruel. The industrial production of oil, which began in the 50-ies, mainly brought profit only to British Petroleum. The situation began to change at the end of 1971, with independence and the nationalization of oil production. The then ruling emir of Khalifa bin Hamad al-Thani, followed the rest of the monarchies of the Gulf - began to devour his income, and entrusted the administration of his country to his son Hamad bin Khalifa at-Thani, but did not take into account that Hamad looked differently. In 1995, he phoned his father in Switzerland and said that he was no longer the emir. The new emir Hamad was a supporter of the development of the economy of Qatar, investment in profitable foreign assets, and indeed was atypically formed for the Qatari elite. In 1971, he graduated from the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst (United Kingdom), and was responsible for developing the country's economy and gained experience in this area.
Today, the country's economic indicators are very interesting: GDP growth rates (16% per year) put Qatar among the regional leaders, and gross domestic product per capita (almost 90 thousand dollars) is the largest in the world. Qatar, the third country in the world in terms of natural gas volumes (more than 900 trillion cubic meters), is able to independently deliver liquefied gas to any part of the planet. Today, Qatar's liquefied gas transportation fleet is the largest in the world.
Emir Hamad took the global crisis as a great opportunity to acquire. As a result, Qatar became the owner of processing plants in China, fashion houses of France and Spanish football teams.
The fate of Kuwait, who interested Saddam with his resources, made a strong impression on him. Emir Hamad understood that Qatar had no less resources, and it was not long to search for more militarily strong states around.
Then, for starters, he built for the US the al-Udeid airbase (the largest among all foreign bases of the US Air Force, with 4 thousand troops), having invested a billion dollars in construction, but somehow doubted the reliability of the American umbrella. In particular, it is hardly possible to rely firmly on the United States for protection against Saudi Arabia, there are tight friendship hugs and mutual love held together by petrodollars. When there is no powerful army, as in Iran or Egypt, there is no spiritual shield, such as Mecca and Medina, nor the sanctity of the dynasty, as in Jordan, then you have to find your own way to protect yourself and your wealth. And the emir found him.
Diplomatic shield and information sword
The basis of his policies have become "diplomatic shield" and "information sword."
Creating a “diplomatic shield”, Emir Hamad managed to build working relations with all countries and forces of the Middle East. In 1996, he invited an Israeli trade mission to the country, and he demonstrated diplomatic tact even in relations with Iran, which other monarchies in the region cannot bear. Senator John Kerry complained that “Qatar could not be our ally on Monday and send money to HAMAS militants on Tuesday,” but the policy of “cooperating with everyone” made an excellent mediator out of the emir who was able to reconcile the right parties at the right time. “We do not take sides in conflicts, so the leaders ask us for mediation in them,” Emir Hamad explained the diplomatic successes.
Total control over the information space of the Middle East acted as an “information sword”. To this end, the emir founded Al-Jazeera, the international television channel, the very next year after he came to power, whose main feature, thanks to the large financial investments and the experience of the hired English specialists, was a combination News in Arabic with Western journalism standards. Al-Jazeera is the first Arab channel to look at conflicts from the perspective of both sides. The channel provided airtime to the entire spectrum of opposition Middle Eastern forces - both secular and religious. The word was even given to the representatives of Israel, which is very unusual for the Islamic channel.
And, since we called the shield (diplomatic) and sword (informational), it is time to talk about interests.
Interest is a great driving force
“Interest is the great driving force, the only one that leads in the right direction and far.” Daniel pennak
The Arab Spring brought Qatar more dividends than the United States, France and Britain combined. Doha managed to reduce, or even eliminate, the role of such players as Libya, Egypt and Syria. Today, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are the main spring of all the initiatives of the Arab League, but the Saudis do not have the financial capabilities of Qatar.
But just money does not make the weather, they can only bring short-term gain and loyalty, let's take a closer look at the interests.
First interest: “Dumping” Gaddafi, Doha won a very important round in its struggle for Africa, for a region extremely interesting both with its resources and with its logistics options. The main rival on the continent was removed from the road, who had sufficient capacity to “feed” half of African countries. Together with Gaddafi, his main instrument of influence in the face of numerous funds and banks, which are now being replaced by the same Qatar, is gone. As a result, one should expect a sharp “Islamization” of the continent and an increase in the influence of Qatar in the African Union, which Qatar, with the living Gaddafi, had almost no chance to realize and break through to the leading positions.
The same interest was also in the Egyptian "spring" - money and there did their job. As a result, Qatar got rid of two of its most dangerous competitors on the African continent and is now ready for economic expansion.
“The strong do what they want, and the weak suffer as they should.” Thucydides
Interest second: - This is a major game in the global gas market, where exporters' interests collide. In the event of a fall in Syria, the region will be included in the global game of laying alternative gas pipelines, the most likely route will pass through Syria and will seriously compete with projects such as South Stream, Nabuco, etc. And it is desirable to carry out such a project , laying the pipeline through the territory of a friendly (or better controlled) country. So this is a game for big money, and this is holy for Doha.
Syria is not only the key problem, but also the solution of several tasks at once. First of all - the removal of dependence on the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. The world economy, in the event of a military operation against Iran and the cessation of navigation on the Strait of Hormuz, and even the economies of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, will receive a powerful blow, and Qatar will simply collapse. That is why a new corridor through Syria is acquiring vital importance, but a friendly regime is needed, and not an ally of the regional enemy - Iran. If this problem is solved, then oil and gas pipelines will pass through Syria to the Mediterranean coast. That's just the Assad regime is on this "road to happiness."
How Qatari money works to realize these interests is quite understandable. Qatar recently bought a HAMAS for itself, which could have put a speck on it in Syria. Iran stopped paying, and Emir made a proposal to Mashal, as a result of which the entire Hamas politburo moved to Doha, and Chania in the Cairo mosque said: I welcome the heroic Syrian people who are fighting for freedom, democracy and reform. ” This is how it works.
And “Al-Jazeera? How does this work?
Qatar was able to assemble a very professional team, which made Al-Jazeera the main channel of influence on the minds of the Arabs. It would not be an exaggeration to say that without Al-Jazeera, coups in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and a revolt in Syria would most likely not occur. This is seen most clearly in the example of Libya. First, Al-Jazeera continuously filed exaggerated information about the clashes in Eastern Libya, and then based on this information, the Arab League adopted a resolution against Gaddafi. Mubarak could object, but he was already arrested. Gaddafi has no hopes for Arab support, and Russia and China did not want to delve into these internal Arab affairs.
Today in Syria, the emirate is sponsoring rebels, supplying weapon and fighters for the Free Syrian Army, and the Al-Jazeera Channel creates a favorable background for this. Continuous stories about the atrocities of Assad do their work. Murder, looting, persecution of Christians by the rebels on the channel is not visible.
The main thing - do not play
Any swindler, bank robber or financial pyramid organizer should change the style of activity, otherwise he will be caught too quickly. Qatar’s work style cannot change, and therefore his actions have become annoying to the “partners.” Al-Jazeera has now lost its status as an objective television and information company - the New York Daily News calls it "an Arab propaganda organization that is controlled by the medieval Qatari regime and disguised as a media company." In addition, the emir was faced with a very cool attitude to himself from the traditional leaders of the Arab world, and, above all, Saudi Arabia, with which relations have seriously deteriorated. Riyadh is not satisfied with the dominance of Qatar in Lebanon, and secondly, the Saudis are afraid of the "Arab Spring", fearing, quite reasonably, the activities of Al-Jazeera.
And Western politicians finally understood how Qatar led them around the finger in North Africa. There would be pressure on Qatar for bad behavior, but military bases! - how to do without them today.
The call for the Emir rang unexpectedly. In April, the emir guard attempted to seize the palace of the emir. The situation was rescued only by parts of the American special forces deployed from the territory of al-Udeid base. This time it was carried by, but the Amir was not saved by his troops, but by the Americans. In the “Iranian trail” in the attempt to turn over is difficult to believe, what to do, the emir needs to look around carefully.
What is Hecuba to us?
It is obvious that the “Caliphate” created around Israel does not bring us peace and tranquility, but, as in the questions of the unification of Fatah and Hamas, the internal struggle in it is gaining more and more heat. It is quite clear that this inevitably reduces the capabilities of its participants.
At one time, the Russian scientist Oleg Arin formulated the definition of a “center of power”. According to him, "the center of power is a subject that has the ability to subordinate the activities of other subjects or actors of international relations in accordance with their own national interests." In the Middle East, we habitually attributed Egypt (which is already in the past), Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia to such centers of power. But now it will be necessary to pay the most serious attention to little Qatar. Doha is playing its game in Yemen, Palestine, Syria and Africa. It is painfully successful "bermut water" ... will play.
Information