Military Review

Russia and Belarus: business separately from oil

20
Despite the fact that in the economic relations of the two countries, according to the figurative expression of the Belarusian president, they regularly “sparkle”, the businessmen of the ally countries are ready to further increase cooperation.


This is especially noticeable in the moods in the small and medium-sized businesses of Belarus, which were investigated by experts of the Center for the Study of Integration Prospects. On September 4, they presented their report on the mood of Belarusian entrepreneurs during a video link at the Russia Today MIA.

According to the Center's estimates, which were announced by the center's director, Sergei Rekeda, almost three-quarters of the businessmen from the union republic believe that membership in the EEU is beneficial for Belarus. At the same time, 50 percent of respondents TIPI noted that they themselves receive a direct benefit from this. 51 percentage of entrepreneurs while cooperating in business with Russia in one way or another. 12,5 percent tried to build ties with the Russian structures, but so far unsuccessfully. And only 36 percent of entrepreneurs did not even try to work in the Russian market.

Russia and Belarus: business separately from oil


It is the Russian market in Belarus that is regarded as the most promising. This is the opinion of 80 percent of small and medium businesses. Assessing the availability and working conditions in the Russian market, the Belarusian business gave him 4,5 points. At the same time, entrepreneurs' markets for other EAEU member countries barely exceed 3,0, and they only rated the European market at 2,3 points.

At the same time, the share of entrepreneurs, for whom the domestic Belarusian market remains the main one, reaches 90 percent. According to most of them, to expand cooperation with Russia and other EAEU countries, small and medium businesses still lack direct horizontal links. In addition, according to expert polls cited by S. Rekeda, it is “small and medium-sized businesses that now most need large-scale diversification of mutual trade. There is an acute issue of advancing in new areas of activity that are not burdened by the traditional difficulties of developing markets that are so characteristic of old industries. ”

At the same time, the specialists of the Center for Economic Research together with the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences also evaluated the dynamics of the development of economic ties between Russia and Belarus. According to Artem Pylin, a senior researcher at the Center, in the past 5-7 years she has been extremely uneven.

Thus, in 2011-2012, foreign trade turnover not only reached a record 40 billion dollars a year, but was also relatively balanced. However, in subsequent years there was a period of stagnation and distinct distortions in favor of Russian raw materials exports. The total turnover then fell to 24 billion dollars, and if in the 2017 year they began to grow again, it was mainly due to Russian exports.

This, according to A. Pylin, is primarily due to opportunistic factors. As with the fall of the ruble against world currencies and even the Belarusian ruble, as well as with the growth of world commodity prices. At the same time, according to the expert, such fundamental reasons as the low rates of economic growth in both countries, accompanied by almost continuous conflicts in various fields of business, also worked negatively.

As a result, in 2018, Russian exports to Belarus continued to grow at a faster pace, adding already 23,4 percent, while the supply of Belarusian goods to our country grew by only 2 percent. This is primarily due to the fact that many traditional goods supplied from the neighboring republic began to be mass-produced in Russia.

But not only: a lot of “Belarusian” is no longer in such an advantageous position as before, compared to Russian competitors. In addition, large Russian transnational corporations are not at all interested in offering direct preferences to their partners in the EAEU. In response to the bright statements of Alexander Lukashenko, similar to the very “sparks”, large Russian business took a completely explainable position. It can be reduced to a simple formula: “Russia is an ally, but not a donor at all!”

It is not surprising that the issue of raw materials has recently become one of those that most affect the interests of the Belarusian business community. Two allied countries will soon have to negotiate to resolve the next oil dispute. It is associated with the notorious tax maneuver of the Russian authorities, the beginning of which is scheduled for January 1 2019.


Refinery in the Belarusian Mazyr without Russian oil will simply rise

As you know, as a result of the maneuver, gradually, by 2024, the export duty on oil will be reset. At the same time, the mineral extraction tax (MET) will continue to grow, as a result of which oil will cost the same for everyone, including our Belarusian ally. And if for Russian refiners in order to maintain low domestic gas prices and aviation kerosene introduced negative excise taxes, then for the Belarusian refineries there is no such option. However, perhaps not yet.

However, a compromise, no matter how good it is, should by no means be really beneficial only to one side - the Belarusian side. The Russian side is ready to consider the possibility of limiting the volumes of duty-free deliveries of petroleum products to allied Belarus. The fact is that today millions of tons of Russian oil, according to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, can simply be re-exported.

They can or are already re-exported, the minister did not specify. But the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has already parried a Russian official, arguing that it is Russia that now does not list Minsk the duty on re-export of 6 million tons of oil. The agreement on such transfers was reached in April 2017.

Then the documents were signed that resolved disagreements in the oil and gas sector, and Belarus received the right to re-export those six of 24 million tons of Russian oil. Received, by the way, duty-free with transfer of customs duties directly to the Belarusian budget. In addition, in accordance with those agreements, Minsk repaid 726 million dollars of debt for the gas supplied and received a lower price for gas for 2018 and 2019 years - 129 and 127 dollars per thousand cubic meters, respectively.

Looking back at these agreements, the experts have no doubt that the allies will again be able to come to some kind of single point of view on the oil and gas problem. Thus, the leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund, Igor Yushkov, is almost certain that a compromise will again be found at the expense of the price of Russian gas for Belarus.

The decision "in relation" to gas supplies is quite possible, but the same negative excise taxes can be introduced for Belarusian oil refiners. Igor Yushkov voiced his highly integrated forecast: “The contract between Gazprom and Belarus ends at the end of 2019. Perhaps there will be some kind of compromise due to the gas industry: Belarus will rapidly move to Russian domestic prices, a single gas market will be created, which is agreed upon in within the EAEU. "

There are options that gas prices for Belarusian consumers will be even lower than agreed more than a year ago. This will give not only relief to ordinary consumers, but also almost billion savings to the budget of the republic. That is why Igor Yushkov insists on the need to find a compromise that will avoid problems with the transfer of the entire oil industry of the two countries to the new rules of the game.
Author:
20 comments
Ad

Subscribe to our Telegram channel, regularly additional information about the special operation in Ukraine, a large amount of information, videos, something that does not fall on the site: https://t.me/topwar_official

Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. seti
    seti 5 September 2018 08: 39
    +12
    I can imagine how our Belarusian friends will come running to defend the Old Man. It is understandable - how many years Russia to the detriment of its citizens financed Banderstan and Belarus. And oil and gas and cheap loans that no one gave. And this is the tip of the iceberg. What did we get in return? If everything is clear with the first, then the second is still tumank. But also not very rosy - the Union State only in words. Belarus did not recognize neither Crimea nor South Ossetia nor Abkhazia. Please work in Syria, but to fight in it, or at least support it with a kind word again in the bushes. When Old Man in Russia, we are friends, partners and brothers. But when he was at home we were already just who. His double-dealing is simply disgusting. Not to mention the prohibitions of St. George's tapes and other bad cases of arrests.
    1. Max otto
      Max otto 5 September 2018 10: 14
      -3
      Protect dad? No one here in Belarus will protect him, because it does not make sense. You argue as the holder of shares in Gazprom and Rosneft, what relation do you have to them? Neither you nor me are cold or hot from this. With these resources, you personally shish yes nifiga accounts. The breadwinner.
      Russia does not fully recognize Crimea, Gref and Sberbank for example, what do you want from Lukash? Russia is writing off billions of dollars to all kinds of gains, and it doesn’t bother you at all, although debts can be taken even by the same land, debts are debts. Understand there in the end, you will have order, real allies will appear, and so far, so long as everything is going on.
      1. Kent0001
        Kent0001 5 September 2018 11: 45
        +8
        Belarus will not last half a year without Russia. And this is the truth of life. Look at the world without rose-colored glasses, and debts - they are debts, and only the creditor decides to whom he will write off what, and so on on all issues regarding the decisions of the Russian leadership. You have been sponsored all the post-Soviet times, and as a result, there is not even a "jump" airfield and support bases for our VKS on the territory of the "allies" ... but in Syria there is! Well, and so on ... again, on all issues .... but Old Man has one mantra: first, give me money, then write off the debts, otherwise I'll stop making friends .... he is a petty dirty trick and a blackmailer.
      2. Alexey RA
        Alexey RA 5 September 2018 15: 28
        +6
        Quote: Max Otto
        You argue as the holder of shares in Gazprom and Rosneft, what relation do you have to them? Neither you nor me are cold or hot from this. With these resources, you personally shish yes nifiga accounts. The breadwinner.

        That is, if you personally don’t get it in your pocket, then it doesn’t bring any benefits? And the fact that the oil industry and gas industry are the largest payers to the budget - this is so, little things.
        This position usually ends with a Khatyn, a sadochka ... and a maidan.
        Quote: Max Otto
        Russia is writing off billions of dollars to all kinds of gains, and it doesn’t bother you at all, although debts can be taken even by the same land, debts are debts.

        So these goners do not swear in brotherly love (so that later, at the first request from our side, turn away and declare "we are a soured state")
        And these gonads do not lay wreaths at the memorial to those who killed our peacekeepers in Tskhinvali.
      3. seti
        seti 5 September 2018 17: 15
        +3
        It just worries that we are writing off debts to everyone who is not lazy. And Belarus as well. Gazprom also has a direct relationship to me in my understanding because I am Russian. As for Gref and Sberbank. Yes, it’s obvious here - Gref is not the Russian Federation, and especially not Russia (I share this), but give the signal to Sberbank and he will recognize Crimea for all points within an hour.
      4. Victor N
        Victor N 6 September 2018 13: 25
        0
        Gazprom and other companies work for the country's economy, including the social sphere. This is elementary, it’s indecent to not understand.
    2. vatov
      vatov 5 September 2018 11: 50
      +2
      Union State only in words.
      the "elites" do not want unification.
    3. Bar1
      Bar1 10 September 2018 08: 28
      +1
      Quote: seti
      It’s understandable - how many years Russia has funded Banderstan and Belarus to the detriment of its own citizens


      actually? And how did you personally infringe on the sale of oil to Belarus? What oil was taken from you and sent to Belarus? People like you breed nationalism and spoil relations with our only ally.
  2. Ros 56
    Ros 56 5 September 2018 09: 25
    +6
    Thus, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, is almost certain that a compromise will again be found due to the price of Russian gas for Belarus.

    Avon how, again at the expense of the Russians, great brothers work.
    There are options that gas prices for Belarusian consumers will be even lower than agreed more than a year ago. This will give not only relief to ordinary consumers, but also almost a billion-dollar savings to the republican budget.

    And who will pay for this holiday of life? Like who is Russian Vanya. The question is - does he need it? And in response to silence, he injects for 10-15 thousand. I read analytics yesterday. Recently, such friendship, in one direction, has already cost Russia almost a trillion rubles. So think about how to build a bridge - along the river, or across. hi
    1. Alexey RA
      Alexey RA 5 September 2018 15: 31
      +4
      Quote: Ros 56
      Avon how, again at the expense of the Russians, great brothers work.

      Duc ... the fundamental principle of the foreign policy of the former Soviet republics - Russia should!
    2. Ingvar 72
      Ingvar 72 5 September 2018 20: 44
      -2
      Quote: Ros 56
      And who will pay for this holiday of life? Like who is Russian Vanya.

      Well, straight from your pocket? belay Still believe. that Gazprom is a national treasure, and that if Belarus sells gas and oil at world prices, will we live better? wink
      Understand. from the fact that we sell hydrocarbons to Belarus a little cheaper, it’s neither cold nor hot for ordinary people in Russia. But Belarusians are a little warmer.
      1. Lara Croft
        Lara Croft 5 September 2018 21: 49
        +7
        Quote: Ingvar 72
        Understand. from the fact that we sell hydrocarbons to Belarus a little cheaper, it’s neither cold nor hot for ordinary people in Russia. But Belarusians are a little warmer.

        Since the Russian Federation is the majority shareholder of Gazprom, I, as a taxpayer, are not indifferent to the losses of Gazprom ...
        Moreover, the Republic of Belarus, there is nothing to cover these losses, neither in economic, nor in political, nor in military-political terms ...
        There are no answers in favor of the Russian Federation and its people from the Republic of Belarus, only multi-vector ....
        1. Ingvar 72
          Ingvar 72 6 September 2018 06: 27
          +1
          Quote: Lara Croft
          multi-vectoring alone ....

          Our government does not have the same vector in relations with Belarus. You are not shown this, but look for yourself to see laziness. And if you possess a large amount of information about the relations between our states, then the tricks of the Old Man become understandable.
          PS
          Quote: Lara Croft
          then I, as a taxpayer, care about Gazprom’s losses ...
          Have you ever thought that your wife, sleeping with you for free, suffers the same? wassat
          1. Astoria
            Astoria 6 September 2018 06: 47
            +2
            Our government does not have the same vector in relations with Belarus. You are not shown this, but look for yourself to see laziness. And if you possess a large amount of information about the relations between our states, then the tricks of the Old Man become understandable.
            - an old barrel organ, by the way why when it comes to facts You always Igor laziness ? wink

            Have you ever thought that your wife, sleeping with you for free, suffers the same? wassat

            A profound statement, you took this from personal experience, and to whom you and your wife are too lazy ... laughing You wrote that you have an economic education, your sexual and everyday examples will help everyone understand the relations between the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation, write more hi
            1. Ingvar 72
              Ingvar 72 6 September 2018 17: 57
              0
              Quote: Astoria
              when it comes to facts Igor is always lazy for you?

              No, one example is the Uralkali case.
              Quote: Astoria
              you took it from personal experience,

              Mind not enough to draw a parallel? wink
              Quote: Astoria
              Your sexuality examples

              Our whole life according to Freud. laughing
  3. seti
    seti 5 September 2018 17: 16
    +4
    Quote: Kent0001
    and the Old Man has one mantra: first give money, then write off your debts, otherwise I’ll stop making friends .... he is a small dirty trickster and a blackmailer.

    This is the point + 100%
  4. Lara Croft
    Lara Croft 5 September 2018 21: 37
    +6
    Besides large Russian multinational corporations are by no means interested in providing direct preferences to partners in the EAEU. In response to the vivid statements of Alexander Lukashenko, similar to that same “sparks”, large Russian business took an understandable position. It can be reduced to a simple formula: “Russia is an ally, but not a donor at all!»

    Not even 1/4 century after the collapse of the Union, dear edition ....
  5. Antares
    Antares 6 September 2018 08: 57
    +4
    You can shine on the slogan - "Stop feeding RB"
    the scenario seems to be economically justified, but confirming a complete collapse in life.
    The last ally.
    There is still not enough to put in the most expensive gas and to exacerbate trade wars - and a full copy will be 2014. And that's all ... the sanitary cordon is ready. And not "Klyaty West", but with our own hands.
    The Russian Federation with such approaches will not even have any temporary fellow travelers.
    1. Astoria
      Astoria 6 September 2018 12: 59
      0
      You can shine on the slogan - "Stop feeding RB"

      It should be reduced to the slogan "You can't suck for free"
      1. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 6 September 2018 18: 10
        0
        Quote: Astoria
        It should be reduced to the slogan "You can't suck for free"

        Yes, yes, as they say, whose cow would moo -
        Quote: Astoria
        Your sexual examples are very
        wink By the way, your examples are more on G. Klimov, and not on Z. Freud.