TV channel ABC recently reported that the Australian government allegedly aware of the fact that the US plans to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities. And it can happen in August. Moreover, supposedly Australia along with Britain can participate in this, at least in the reconnaissance part of the operation, in defining targets for strikes.
ABC referred to unnamed sources, which, of course, undermines the credibility of this kind of stuffing. Soon official Australian sources denied this information. Spoons were found, but the sediment remained - knowing the current leadership of the United States, it should be noted that such plans can really be considered there, given the US withdrawal from the FIDD (Joint Comprehensive Action Plan to resolve the situation around the Iranian nuclear program) and subsequent formidable statements. Moreover, given the fact that Trump is called "the most pro-Israeli president of the United States in recent years," and he confirms this unchallenged "title" alongside his actions. This is not the United States. Iran is standing across the throat, but first and foremost Israel, who loves to beat himself with a heel in the chest, they say, we, if it is necessary to bury Iran, then as soon as so immediately. And C-300 will not stop us, you, the main thing, just believe in it. But in reality, the 10 tales told by the Israelis for years that they "know how to deal with C-300" are not confirmed in reality and cause our specialists to start to smile, and then the proposal to clarify what kind of "three hundred", how many in which environment, with what it interacts and how many planes the "knowledgeables" are going to donate to solve the problem, because otherwise there is no way. Therefore, the Israelis will continue to tell fairy tales, but they will gladly give the honorable right to knock their heads on C-300PMU-2 to their older brother-Americans. In their interest to pit the United States and Iran.
And then there is another country. We are talking about Saudi Arabia, which sleeps and sees that someone is at war with Iran. Despite the formally good technical equipment, the ground forces, the National Guard, the Air Force, and the kingdom’s fleet showed themselves to be a gathering of cowardly stupid people who bomb civilian objects perfectly, but cannot fight, they showed it in the war in Yemen, with the Hussites and the right im part of the Yemeni army. And if they have a very tight time with the Hussites who have studied with the Iranians, then even Iran itself should not cross the narrow path. But if together with the United States and Israel, it would be quite another matter, they argue in Riyadh. And they are trying with all their might to push the Trump administration to the toughest possible actions against Tehran.
But there are big doubts that even if the United States has plans to strike, it will come to their realization, especially in the near future. There are enough arguments against it. Firstly, such injections are quite in line with the policy of Donald Trump, who regularly tries to check partners for possible negotiations "weakly" by organizing attempts at coercive pressure or threat to those. But these attempts were not successful either with Russia or with Syria, where both strikes were successfully repulsed by air defense and electronic warfare under the combined Russian command, or by the DPRK, which was not at all frightened by the three carrier strike groups (AUG) that ran past it, and scared of AUG couples who later cruised near the Korean Peninsula. And in all these cases we had to negotiate, and opponents, whom they called "monsters", turned out to be "nice guys" in Trump's eyes.
Secondly, to prepare a strike of this level, it takes time and effort and resources pulled into the region. Because if the supply of KR on cruisers and destroyers of an escort of an American aircraft carrier almost constantly living in the region may be enough, but 48 Hornet and Superhornet fighters are clearly not enough for a full-fledged attack on such a country. And even if you use Aviationdeployed by the United States in this region at coastal air bases is still not very strong. In general, signs of a concentration of forces are needed, but they are not yet available. Thirdly, the United States, in general, turned out to be wrong with its exit from the JCPOA even from the point of view of its closest allies, and even after striking it even more so. So, most likely, there was a throw in to check the public reaction.
Moreover, Iran is not at all a country of savages, and in the field of air defense it is not a gift for Americans. Although the country's air defense is not strong enough, many obsolete systems, and in general, for such a large country, much more air defense system is needed. Of course, the four new divisions of the C-300PMU-2 do not cover up not only the whole country, but even the main cities. But the Iranians covered the capital with one two-division regiment, that is, quite reliably, taking into account other air defense systems, including the Tor-M1E and the Iranian-developed and manufactured air-defense missile systems, as well as the C-200BE, the Hoke air defense missile system and other “import” . One division is located near the airport and the Mehrabad air base near the capital, the second covers Tehran from the south-east direction. But the second regiment is located, as reported, on the coast - one division covers the nuclear power plant in Bushehr, while the other division seems to be wandering. They saw him in the province of Khorasan, then at the port of Bandar Abbas, or somewhere else. It is evident that they are practicing the maneuver with forces and air defense weapons.
Iran has in the development and small-scale production of self-developed air defense missile systems, however, it has its own only very formally. So, the test of the 3 th Hordad ADMS (this strange name is in honor of the date, the so-called 24 Martyrs Day in May, that day was repulsed by the Iraqi Khorramshahr in 1982, but the early prototypes of the ADMS were called “Raad” ) has a Zur, very similar to the Zn 9M317 ZRK "Buk" or "Shtil-1", and generally looks like a twin brother "Buk-M2" to a considerable extent. And the Bavar-373 air defense system, which the Iranians call “C-300 analogue”, is actually a version of the North Korean long-range air defense system, but at its base for deployment. So far, these air defense systems are unlikely to be in a large series, but they can provide some help in repelling a possible strike. In addition, Iran, as already mentioned, lacks the old types of air defense missile systems, and it is not necessary to discard the old types of weapons in the fight against the Kyrgyz Republic. As the experience of Syria shows, with proper training, sensitive guidance of officers from Hmeimim and proper support of air defense operations with EW, both old Cuba and other old-type air defense systems of the old types can be useful. What is there that Iranians with EW are certainly difficult to say for sure, but there are also their own developments, there are also Russian-made complexes, and very modern ones. So, of course, Iran is not Syria, and the grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is not located in it, but there will not be an easy walk to nuclear facilities.
In addition, there are a lot of objects, and they are located in different cities and regions of the country: in Tehran, Qum, Arak, Isfahan, Nethensee and Bushehr, as well as in other places. And many are buried in the ground, and it is most likely that they will not succeed in “picking up” their TOM type “Tomahawk”, especially the modern modification “Tomahawk tactic”, in which the warhead is seriously weakened for the sake of range, and in Syria it was clearly manifested. We need other means, the Americans have them, but the result does not guarantee, and the risk of loss increases.
But there is still the risk of retaliation from Iran, which has a large arsenal of ballistic, and now cruise missiles, with official ranges to 2000 km. Artificial underestimation of the distance to km 2000 is practiced by Iran to reduce the anxiety of Europe, they say, it will not reach Berlin or Brussels with Paris, and the Romanians and Bulgarians are not sorry. Moreover, among these missiles there are high-precision, with electronic-optical GOS, and they were tested by Iran last year for terrorists in Syria, in the province of Deir ez-Zor. They can strike back and on American bases in the region, and on Israel, and on Riyadh.
Iran has many coastal anti-ship complexes, mostly mobile, there are many small submarines, including with anti-ship missiles on board, and there are Russian submarines of the type Varshavyanka, pr.NUMXEKM. There are also missile boats, including semi-submersible ones (such as the DPRK has, this is their development). That is, to cover the Persian Gulf, and not only forces enough. Iran has already warned that it could block the exit from the Persian Gulf and, moreover, confirmed such plans quite officially. They can simply mine the Strait of Hormuz, covering the area of mine-laying by air defense and coastal SCRC, in order to complicate clearance.
In general, everything is not so simple and straightforward with Iran, in order to attack it from the bay-barge, it is easier to crush the Iranians on their nerves, and then try to cheat at the talks. Probably that is how Trump thinks. Although, knowing the unpredictability of this figure, things can go and very differently. And then a big war will break out in the region ...
A strike on Iran in the near future: reality or fiction?
- Ya. Vyatkin, especially for "Military Review"
- Photos used: