Sobering military incidents. Is it time for Moscow to think?
The events that took place over the past two days in the Donbass and in southern Syria, without a doubt, will be remembered by political scientists, military experts and knowledgeable observers of the World Wide Web as a kind of demonstration period for checking the lice of our American and Israeli friends and supreme negotiators, with by which any attempt to conclude verbal agreements often leads to a geopolitical swindle that has already become a tradition and to brazenly trample in the mud any Moscow’s aspirations to resolve existing conflicts with the help of diplomatic tools. So, in the first two weeks after negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and then historical meetings of the Russian leader with the head of the White House Donald Trump in the Gothic Hall of the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, in an understandable logical chain, events such as:
- the allocation to the Ukrainian side of the 200-million package of military assistance in the form of new equipment, weapons and equipment;
- provision to the Raytheon - Lockheed Martin consortium of funds in the amount of 307,5 million from the US defense department for the production of a fresh batch of FGM-148 "Javelin" anti-tank missile systems for deliveries primarily to Ukraine, Estonia;
- the first since the signing of the next “bread” pseudo-surmiyrization by the Ukrainian military units 122-mm jet volley fire systems 9K51 “Grad” on the city infrastructure of Dokuchaevsk on the night of July July NN;
- finally, intercepting the Su-22М4 fighter-bomber in the Golan Heights area with an Israeli battery of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system, which was argued in the defense department of the Jewish state as a forced countermeasure against a manned Syrian aircraft, which the pilot did not respond to requests and plunged into the airspace neighboring state.
And even though this list, due to the fact that the media have only a limited number of known or to be made public News and the reports cannot, with accuracy to the smallest detail, reflect the prevailing military-political alignment; If you pay attention to the "Donbass denouement", then an interesting detail was noticed here. Along with the negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in the Finnish capital on July 16, 2018, the illegitimate president of the “independent” Poroshenko immediately arrived on the command ship of the US Naval Forces LCC / JCC-20 USS “Mount Whitney”, which is the flagship 6- go operational fleet US Navy. What questions Poroshenko and advisers discussed with the Commander-in-Chief of the US Armed Forces in Europe, Curtis Scaparotti, is not known, because the visit to the main ship of the operational and strategic link of the 6th fleet was brought exclusively to discuss the first results of the Sea Breeze-2018 naval exercises. Meanwhile, it was precisely after these brief consultations on the Dokuchaev’s operational area that the Ukrainian barreled artillery batteries “woke up”, initially striking at the advanced fortified areas of the 1st People’s DPR AK on the outskirts of Dokuchaevsk, and then switching to residential areas of the city.
In the evening of the same day, the first most flagrant case of violation of the cease-fire regime by the anti-tank crew of the Armed Forces of Ukraine occurred, which deliberately struck an anti-tank guided missile at apartment building No. 21 on ul. Mining, as a result of which a mine-blast injury and fragmentation damage was received by a woman, Tubol V.I. 55 year of birth. From this point on, a new round of escalation began, indicating the complete absence of any sound TC of the Ukrainian top from Washington. By the beginning of the active stage of the presidential campaign in the “Square”, we can expect multiple intensification of hostilities in the Donbass theater of operations, which will be supported by Poroshenko’s desire to retain the presidency by introducing martial law as well as Washington’s attempt to numerically defeat the LDNR army corps numerically of superior Ukrainian military formations, hoping for non-interference in the process of Moscow, whose actions are to be stopped by the threat of the introduction of new sank sanctions "packages". In accordance with this plan, the States are planning in the coming months to achieve a complete fall in the rating of the current leadership of our country, with a further loosening of the situation already within its borders. And no other scenario is foreseen here in the near future, despite the share of positive rhetoric expressed by our negotiators on the basis of countless rounds of talks with the so-called “Western partners”; All this is a typical political formality, not relevant to the real state of affairs.
There are no visible shifts in terms of a final settlement of tensions in the southern regions of the Syrian Arab Republic, where the Israeli side again shows its true face. The news leaked from the Israeli TV channel 13 Reshet about an agreement with Moscow to withdraw Iranian units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and various Shiite detachments to a distance of 100 km from the fortified areas of the IDF, to the Golan how the Israeli Air Force tactical fighters (F-15I "Ra'am" and F-16I "Sufa") once again carried out a long-range low-altitude raid into the region of the northern section of the Syrian-Lebanese border through the mountain ranges of the Anti-Lebanon, from where they launched tactical winged "Delilah" or stealth planned guided bombs GBU-39 / B "Small Diameter Bomb" at the Iranian defense enterprise north of Masyaf, which organized the serial production of operational-tactical ballistic missiles of the "Fateh-110/313" family with a range of 200 and 500 km, respectively. This raid can be argued only if one proceeds solely from the fears of the Israeli leadership and the Israel Defense Forces command regarding the possibility of Fatekhi-110/313 strikes from the Syrian Al-Karyatein area to remote areas of Israel, up to the cities of Ashkelon and Baer- Sheva.
But let's think: why should the IRGC attack the Golan Heights without good reason? Naturally, any blow from the Iranian units is possible only as a "response" to the aggression from the IDF. As for aggression against true fighters with terrorism on Syrian soil, here the Israeli Air Force continues to break new "records". What does an Israeli long-range missile strike cost? aviation on the military infrastructure of the Syrian government forces north of the Neyrab airbase, as well as on the military base of Ard al-Kurubi, to which the IRGC and Shiite militia units arrived to form an offensive "skeleton" before the assault on the remaining opposition-terrorist bridgehead - the "Idlib viper"! If you look at the map of the Syrian theater of war, you can determine that the distance from Avb Neyrab to the Golan Heights reaches about 350 km.
Operational-tactical ballistic missiles "Fateh-100" do not have such a range. If we take into account the upgraded "Fateh-313", then to hit such remote targets, the upper part of their trajectory can pass from 70 to 100 km altitude, which makes it easy to detect using the powerful EL / M rocket attack warning system in Israel -2080 Block-B "Super Green Pine", which in a few seconds (on the ascending part of the Fateh-313 trajectory, after its release due to a radio horizon) will issue a target indication to the command station of the Iron Dome complex, as well as missiles interceptor "Arrow-2», which are used as part of the ABM type «Arrow-2» systems. Without having the possibility of intensive anti-aircraft maneuvering, as well as the built-in complexes of means for overcoming the enemy’s anti-missile defense, Fateh-313 will be easily intercepted by the Tamir and Hetz-2 anti-missiles.
Based on this, even a browser-savvy, not to mention a specialist, is convinced that the presence of these missiles near Aleppo does not pose a serious threat to Tel Aviv, especially since they were planned to be used exclusively against the pro-Turkish formations. ” Free Syrian Army ”and“ Tahrir ash-Sham ”, which tightly occupied the province of Idlib and carried out subversive activities against the Syrian government forces in the neighboring governorates, as well as against the Hmeimim airbase, on which tactical close air and space forces of Russia. Conclusion: there is a direct interest of the Israeli side in weakening the combat potential of the Syrian Arab army, as well as friendly forces, immediately before the planned release of the “Idlib gadyushnik”, which may indicate the existence of some undisclosed agreements between Tel Aviv and Ankara.
It is noteworthy that Moscow was fingered right after non-intervention in the “Olive Branch” operation, where our leadership mistakenly made a bet that the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces would continue the operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces detachments in Manbidge and on the eastern bank of the Euphrates, supported The Air Force, the MTR, and the US Marine Corps, as well as the French marin units included in the Western coalition forces. As a result, the canton Afrin was lost, which allowed the Turks (with the help of the FSA and "al-Nusra") to form a powerful "northern front" against the army of Bashar al-Assad, while on June 4 between the Foreign Ministry of Turkey and the US Department of State was ambulance hand agreed a road map to stabilize the situation in Syrian Manbidzh, which for a long period left Moscow out of business. And this does not take into account the “Turkish trace” in the interception of our Su-2018CM over Idlib in February 25 3, as well as the interception of the Su-2018 front bomber with the AIM-24X Sidewinder missile launched from the Turkish F-9C rocket. Unfortunately, in all these incidents, we remained the injured party: Afrin passed into the hands of the "green militants" and the Turkish army, who will make the most of operational and tactical experience to keep Idlib under control, and in response to destroyed no F-16C / D Block 16 + Turkish was not “shot” from the guys from the skies.
Without exaggeration, the highest point of the ugliness can be considered the latest incident with the interception of the Syrian Su-22М4 by the Israeli Patriot air defense system over the Golan Heights. Even if we take into account the fact that the Patriot operators launched the 2 anti-aircraft missiles of the MIM-104C type from the Safed area already when the “Drying” pilot who did not respond to inquiries dived into Israel’s airspace over the Golan by only 1800 meters. the decision of the command of the 138 th northern air defense division is difficult enough. After all, it was known that the car was heading to the southern part of Syria’s airspace for bombing the positions of ISIS formations (forbidden in Russia), holding the tactical “pocket” of Tasil, remaining after the liberation of the “north-west wing of the FSA” west of Dar'a. Consequently, there was no threat to the Israeli military in this case. Moreover, it is well known that all actions of the Syrian Air Force tactical aviation are clearly coordinated with the command of the Russian grouping of troops in Syria and the Russian Aerospace Forces through specialized, secure military communication channels. The same operations above Tasil were performed on the eve of the high-precision front-line fighter-bomber Su-34 of the Russian Aerospace Forces of Russia. Conclusion: with an adequate perception of the operational-tactical situation, with respect for the Russian side as the main participant in the Middle East settlement, the Syrian fighter-bomber would successfully complete the task and return to the home airfield.
The only question is whether Israel is interested in liquidating the “buffer zone” controlled by the IG in the section of the border in the Golan Heights area? Of course not. This is confirmed both by the statement of the Israeli head of military intelligence, Major General Herz Halevi, made by 15 on June 2016 of the year during the 16 of the Herzliya Conference, and by the complete lull on the contact line between the Golan Heights and the Tasil “bridgehead”; here we can state only one thing - a tacit non-aggression agreement between the IDF command and the field commanders of the pseudo-caliphate, beneficial to both parties. And here some Assad Su-22М4 "painted" as an irritant, and even an intruder, - here's the result. A much more interesting point is that the scenario of the destruction of the Syrian “Drying” could have been pre-planned, as happened with our Su-24M two and a half years earlier. And these conclusions are not unreasonable, because the Su-22М4 radar tracking was installed directly from the moment of the detachment of its chassis from the runway of T4 Tiyas airbase, as it became known from the AOI command in the very first statements.
Also, the regularly updated tactical online map of syria.liveuamap.com with a link to the Twitter page “@CivMilAir” displayed that the 2 of the Israeli radar patrol and guidance aircraft (RLDN) and the RTR G550 CAEW EITAM returned in the direction of the Nevatim air base in about an hour after interception Su-22М4. It is logical to assume that the machines could take to the air and carry out the mission of the ARLO for another half an hour before the appearance of "Drying" in the area of Tasila. Here a picture emerges that it was this Su-22М4 that could simply be at the wrong time and place, which was why the Northern Air Force control unit of the Israeli Air Force (“YABA Zfonit”) was chosen as a kind of “sacred victim” to try demonstrating who remains the “master” in the Middle Eastern sky after returning to the agreement on the division of forces from the 1974 year. There is a bold military action coordinated with the Pentagon to “bring down” Moscow and the allies, designed to consolidate the effect of D. Trump’s negotiations with Vladimir Putin regarding the “security of Israel”. Obviously, even in the absence of the Syrian “Drying” in the 24 region of July on the same day or several days later, Tel Aviv would find another “sacred sacrifice” onto which the power would be projected.
Of course, the Syrian air defense units will still have a whole sea of opportunities to recoup the Israeli F-15I, F-16I and F-35I "Adir" following the example of the destruction of F-16I "Sufa" using the C-125 "Pechora" “2M” in February of this year, because the tactical aviation Hel Haavir violates the airspace of Syria regularly, causing damage to the military infrastructure of the state and the combat capability of its army, as well as friendly units. Much more in all this military-political chaos is worried about the next period of "soft-bodied behavior" of Moscow: a strong protest was initially expressed, then the protest was withdrawn (allegedly after the demonstration of radar information from the IDF objective control). But where is the reaction to the attack on Neirab air base and the plant in Masjaf? Where is the "otvetka" for strikes on the military airfield T4? Where laid Damascus C-300PMU-2 to protect the airspace and strategic facilities of our main ally. And there are even more questions about Donbass, and there is no longer any desire to list them.
With a similar position, there still will be ... Apparently, the key to uncovering only a small fraction of the reasons for such a dismissive and fraudulent attitude towards Russia in the “big game” is in the very applause of the majority of our deputies (except Natalia Poklonskaya) of the American Congress delegation headed by Senator Richard Shelby, who with great pleasure will vote for the “Crimean Declaration” of the USA, and for the new sanctions “package” in the framework of the CAATSA draft law “On Countering America's Opponents through Sanctions”.
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