Military Review

Kiev pushes Minsk to create Southern Operational Command

36



Today we can confidently state a fact - the Ukrainian conflict has fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe, which undoubtedly made all states of the region reconsider their approaches to ensuring their military security.

The countries that are located directly on the eastern flank of NATO approached this issue with particular zeal. The Baltic countries and Poland rather quickly reacted to the “growing military threat from Russia” and actively began to increase the combat potential of their troops.

2017 year in this matter can be called the year of the implementation of the ambitious plans of the US and NATO to strengthen the presence of the Alliance units in the east of Europe. This is, first of all, the deployment on a rotational basis of the American armored and helicopter brigade, as well as the deployment in Poland and the Baltic states of four multinational battalion tactical groups of enhanced advanced NATO presence. Also last year, the storage started in the previous year in Western Europe of armaments and equipment of the armored division of the US Army. Numerous exercises were held with the participation not only of the Alliance countries themselves, but also of the neutral partner countries Finland and Sweden. The most ambitious of them took place in Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as in the Baltic Sea. In general, since 2014, the number of NATO exercises near the western borders of Russia and Belarus has increased more than five times!

In addition, the military budgets of our Western partner countries are growing in a “geometric” progression. Thus, the plans of the Polish leadership in the coming 15 years to increase defense spending from 2 to 2,5% of GDP, which will be almost 15 billion dollars annually.

Over the past six years, Lithuania has more than tripled its defense budget; in 2018, it will be 1,1 billion dollars, 20% of which is planned to be spent on the purchase of weapons and military equipment. The total number of Lithuanian Armed Forces is about 13 thousand people. Belarus, however, spends about 65 million dollars a year on its Armed Forces, which number about 600 thousand people. Without exaggeration - crumbs compared with the military budgets of our neighbors.

Special attention should be paid to the efforts of Ukraine in preparing for "repelling Russian aggression". Despite all the economic difficulties, the leadership of Ukraine in the 2018 year planned to allocate 5% of GDP for military needs, or 3 billion dollars. Above this, 350 million provides for military assistance to Ukraine from the United States.

According to Ukrainian analysts, 2018 should be a breakthrough year - the armed forces will begin to receive new military equipment, in particular the BTR-4 and BTR-3 battalion kits, the first mass-produced vehicles, the Dozor light armored vehicles, the Kozak armored vehicles, which have been tested and used since the end of last year. Upgraded will also arrive. Tanks T-64 The delivery of the Alder missile system to the Ukrainian army is expected. In addition, the troops received a wide range of anti-tank missile systems - from the Corsair with a range of up to 2,5 km to the Stugny with a range of 5 km. And there are a lot of them, the number of complexes is measured in hundreds, and the number of missiles in thousands. According to experts, this is enough to strengthen the anti-tank component, without even recalling the American Javelin ATGM.

Nor should we forget about the Kiev-declared tests of the OGK “Grom” and a cruise missile.

It is also planned to begin the process of deep modernization of the MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters. According to the state program of development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, before the 2020, the air force must upgrade its fleet and airfield infrastructure.

In addition to modernization and the purchase of modern weapons and military equipment, the APU is restoring the once-disbanded military units and units. So, from January 2018, XNUMX, a new tactical brigade was formed in the Air Force aviation. According to the press service of the Air Force command, one of the oldest aviation units was reorganized - a fighter squadron deployed in the village of Ozernoye, Zhytomyr Region. The newly created tactical aviation brigade is located 125 km from the Belarusian border and, according to average estimates, consists of at least 20 Su-27 fighters.

Together with the modernization of weapons and equipment in Ukraine, they don’t spare money for the military infrastructure - landfills, storage bases, barracks, roads, military camps. In 2017, the construction of three military camps was announced; in 2018, the task was to provide the 23 troops with a thousand new beds.

About 80 million dollars in the past year was spent on improving the material part of the training centers of the Ukrainian army. A significant amount of the claimed amount went to update the Desna landfill in the Chernihiv region, which is located in 35 km from the border with Belarus. This site is part of the Desna 169 training center, which also includes 6 military equipment parks on 1020 cars, 17 barracks on 5562 troops, 66 residential buildings on 2289 apartments and 93 storage. On the occupied area it is the third in the Ukrainian armed forces.

Despite the fact that the main places for holding international exercises in Ukraine are the Yavorivsky and Wide Lan lanes, it can be argued with high probability that after the Desna landfill is updated, international drills will be held near the Belarusian and Russian borders. 2018 year. For example, it can be the Ukrainian-American teachings "Rapid Trident - 2018", the multinational teachings "The Light Avalanche - 2018" or the Ukrainian-Romanian teachings "Riverian - 2018". It is logical to assume that the fighter jets of the newly created tactical aviation brigade, located nearby, can be involved in the international exercises “Clear Sky - 2018”.

On the scale of the planned exercises testifies law, recently signed by President Poroshenko. Thus, according to the document, in the framework of multinational exercises, it is proposed to allow the admission of US military units, other NATO member states (up to 3 thousands of troops with weapons and military equipment, up to six aircraft and helicopters) up to 365 days in January-December 2018.

In general, the events taking place in the Ukrainian army and, in particular, the increased participation of the United States and NATO member countries in the development of the Ukrainian armed forces, will not, but should draw the attention of the military-political leadership of Belarus to the southern borders of the state.

It is worth noting that the official Minsk should have turned its gaze to the South of the state yesterday, when in 2013, the operational forces of the North, rather than the North-West, were created in the armed forces of Ukraine, for example! Already at that time, the logic required the Belarusian military to create, by analogy, as part of the response, the Southern Operational Command of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus with the deployment of its individual elements already in peacetime. After all, it is no secret to anyone that the Ukrainian direction is not covered by troops.

The situation is aggravated by a fall in the level of trust between Minsk and Kiev. Spying scandal and constant exchanges of diplomatic and informational blows led to a deterioration in relations. Suffice it to recall the Ukrainian information campaign to discredit the military exercise "West-2017". It is clear that the message came from Washington, but the sediment remained.

It is not known what the current political situation in Ukraine will lead to, but it is already becoming obvious that at least symmetrical actions aimed at ensuring the security of the southern borders are necessary, logical and logical.
Author:
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36 comments
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  1. Same lech
    Same lech 2 February 2018 06: 01
    +8
    It is not known what the current political situation in Ukraine will lead to,


    Well, why is it unknown ... there are several options for the logical completion of all preparations for the NATO war at our borders.
    Now this military structure has firmly established itself at our borders and is not going to leave from here, and moreover it is preparing for another war against RUSSIA.
    You don’t have to have seven spans in your forehead so you don’t understand that sooner or later the borders of NATO will inevitably expand further to the EAST ... a pack of wolves wants to eat and RUSSIA is a delicious kebab ... though they can choke if its fifth column does not fry this kebab as follows to the arrival of their masters.
    We are at a crossroads and our future depends on our ability to defend ourselves both from predators from the WEST and from predators within the country itself ..
    1. pjastolov
      pjastolov 2 February 2018 08: 58
      +5
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      It is not necessary to have seven spans in the forehead in order not to understand that sooner or later the borders of NATO will inevitably expand further to the EAST ... a pack of wolves wants to eat and RUSSIA is a very tasty kebab ..

      In 2014, Vladimir Putin at his press conference, explaining the country's economic difficulties after the accession of Crimea, again touched on this topic: “No, this is not a retribution for the Crimea. This is a retribution, this is a fee, or rather, for our natural desire to preserve ourselves as a nation, as a civilization, as a state. [...] After all, we have almost repeatedly heard from officials that it is unfair that Siberia, with its immeasurable wealth, belongs to Russia. How unfair? Is Mexico right to take Texas off? ”
  2. Cheburator
    Cheburator 2 February 2018 08: 40
    15
    It is written interestingly and professionally
    I agree with the conclusions
    1. siberalt
      siberalt 2 February 2018 08: 49
      +2
      Let’s see if Lukashenko gives his tractors and fuel and lubricants to Ukraine in this sowing season. winked
      1. aszzz888
        aszzz888 2 February 2018 09: 21
        +5
        sibiralt Today, 08:49 ↑ New
        Let’s see if Lukashenko gives his tractors and fuel and lubricants to Ukraine in this sowing season. winked

        hi ! There is no doubt - it will!
      2. Lex.
        Lex. 2 February 2018 09: 41
        0
        https://42.tut.by/579322
        Belarusians presented interesting developments
        1. Astoria
          Astoria 2 February 2018 09: 59
          +2
          It's you about the layouts on the table with paper TTX - very interesting.
          1. Lex.
            Lex. 2 February 2018 11: 20
            0
            Well, a polonaise 300 km to the Ukrainian will be glad to doubt not have to
            1. Astoria
              Astoria 2 February 2018 14: 05
              0
              maybe Chinese, Belarusian I don’t know, you know it was announced that the plan to localize the Chinese missile to a maximum of 50%. When there will be more than one brigade in the Republic of Belarus, then it will be possible to talk about something, as long as these are only layouts and pictures.
              1. Lex.
                Lex. 2 February 2018 19: 13
                0
                90% localized while only Chinese engines are buying. So rejoice for your allies that you have achieved what
                1. Astoria
                  Astoria 2 February 2018 23: 32
                  0
                  90%
                  - and the men don’t even know laughing
                  31/01/2018
                  Stanislav Zas, State Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus:
                  We got a good rocket complex. Now we are at the second stage of all these works. Its essence is to increase localization. The whole complex is all Belarusian, missiles partially not ours. Our task is that they be completely Belarusian production.
                  About it partially The conversation has been going on for the fourth year.

                  They don’t have localization, it’s just Wishlist / fake deals and winning reports for RB TV. As for the allies, the Russian Federation does not count on anyone (the Russian Federation has only two allies, the army and navy).
                  1. prosto_rgb
                    prosto_rgb 3 February 2018 02: 38
                    0
                    Localization of Polonaise 95%
                    1. Astoria
                      Astoria 3 February 2018 09: 21
                      0
                      99.99% tongue fresh tradition, but hard to believe. laughing
                      1. Lex.
                        Lex. 3 February 2018 11: 04
                        0
                        Data is there a disclaimer?
                      2. prosto_rgb
                        prosto_rgb 3 February 2018 15: 03
                        0
                        Quote: Astoria
                        99.99%

                        no
                        95% yes
                        so nobody agitates you to believe
                        it’s more reliable to consider that Polonaise is nothing more than a mock-up, and the videos were shot on Belarusfilm
      3. Sergeant71
        Sergeant71 2 February 2018 11: 33
        0
        So I want to ask, and who gives the fuel and lubricants of Belarus?
        1. Lex.
          Lex. 2 February 2018 12: 35
          0
          Novopolotsk and Mazyr refinery
        2. Lex.
          Lex. 3 February 2018 11: 00
          0
          you need to see who the owner is, and the Russians own a significant part of the shares, in addition, not only Russian oil is refined.
      4. vinni-puk
        vinni-puk 2 February 2018 13: 51
        0
        Of course it will. They are brothers.
  3. aszzz888
    aszzz888 2 February 2018 09: 20
    +2
    It is worth noting that the official Minsk had to look at the South of the state yesterday, when in 2013 the operational command “North” was created in the armed forces of Ukraine, and not “North-West”, for example!

    Better later than never.
    1. Lex.
      Lex. 2 February 2018 09: 30
      0
      So the local opposition media whine that the enemy is in the east and Lukashenko is afraid for his image that he doesn’t disperse this fifth column here, buy, online, buy the same Belsat now will not finance Poland, but England
  4. captain
    captain 2 February 2018 09: 54
    +3
    Our leadership in Ukraine made a strategic mistake when it stopped the attack on Mariupol. It was possible to start work on the Minsk agreements even after the capture of Mariupol. We would have much less problems.
    1. Aviator_
      Aviator_ 2 February 2018 21: 12
      +3
      After the capture of Mariupol, problems with the sale of products would begin with the oligarch Akhmetov. And so - the raven will not peck out the raven's eyes ... So they did not take it. Not ordered by the master.
  5. Kot_Kuzya
    Kot_Kuzya 2 February 2018 11: 20
    +4
    Let the pots spend as much money as possible on the military. Every dollar spent on the army is a blow to the economy 404. It is no secret that the “successes” of the Ukrainian economy before Maidan were also caused by scanty spending on the army, while Russia, for example, spent tens of billions of dollars on the defense industry. And the pans were so happy, they laughed, claiming that "de ... faces can only wave a nuclear club", and distributed such pictures, calling for abandonment of the draft army:


    And now they themselves are being destroyed, calling for cannon fodder in the Donbass laughing
  6. Berkut
    Berkut 2 February 2018 11: 29
    +1
    Ukrainian officers and generals and everyone who feeds on the military budget should pray for the “Russian threat”. If there hadn’t been her, and there wouldn’t have been these injections
  7. Aviator_
    Aviator_ 2 February 2018 21: 14
    0
    [/ quote] One of the oldest aviation units was reorganized - a fighter aviation squadron deployed in the village of Ozernoye, Zhytomyr Region. The newly created tactical aviation brigade is located 125 km from the Belarusian border and, according to average estimates, consists of at least 20 Su-27 fighters. [Quote]
    In fact, it’s interesting — from the squadron — to the brigade (it is not even pulled to the regiment in terms of number equal to two squadrons). Immediately the air army had to be called 20 lithaks.
  8. Alexy
    Alexy 3 February 2018 01: 13
    0
    It is difficult to assess the state of ukroarmiya.
    I know for sure that in 2014 there was a lot of buzz.
    Where did the equipment come from and in such quantity?
    Everything that was in warehouses and in conservation was long plundered. Starting from the precious metal in the boards and ending with the flower garden and even ferrous metal.
    For three years it is impossible to bring all this into a state of war from the word in general.
    Here there is either a complete lie of the media or just a huge help from eastern Europe, where samples of Soviet technology have been preserved.
    1. prosto_rgb
      prosto_rgb 3 February 2018 02: 45
      0
      Quote: Alexy
      I know for sure that in 2014 there was a lot of buzz.

      in the winter of 2014, the army there was purely nominal 13 thousand people.
      last call for an urgent autumn 2013.

      Quote: Alexy
      Here there is either a complete lie of the media or just a huge help from eastern Europe, where samples of Soviet technology have been preserved.

      from there, only cast iron (ammunition) can help and BMP / BTR


      Quote: Alexy
      Where did the equipment come from and in such quantity?
      Everything that was in warehouses and in conservation was long plundered. Starting from the precious metal in the boards and ending with the flower garden and even ferrous metal.
      For three years it is impossible to bring all this into a state of war from the word in general.

      For the Su-27 and MiG-29, they themselves make the entire avionics and missiles + half the hydraulics
  9. Olezhek
    Olezhek 3 February 2018 11: 01
    0
    It is very interesting how our Belarusian “sayuznik” is going to defend its borders ...
  10. Astoria
    Astoria 3 February 2018 11: 36
    0
    Lex.,
    31/01/2018
    Stanislav Zas, State Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus:
    We got a good rocket complex. Now we are at the second stage of all these works. Its essence is to increase localization. The whole complex is all Belarusian, missiles partially not ours. Our task is that they be completely Belarusian production.


    Not written in Russian?
    1. Lex.
      Lex. 3 February 2018 19: 10
      0
      So localize what the problem is
    2. Lex.
      Lex. 3 February 2018 23: 09
      0
      https://www.sb.by/articles/s-dalnim-pritselom-voo
      ruzhenie.html
      here are the data on the new 300 km rocket it’s Belarusian
      1. Astoria
        Astoria 3 February 2018 23: 52
        0
        Apparently, someone has already deleted this military secret. laughing
  11. Astoria
    Astoria 3 February 2018 15: 16
    0
    Boredom ... the contract with the Azeris seemed to be covered with a copper basin, they adopted one brigade (from the Chinese pieces of iron) for armament - and not a word even about further plans. But in fact there is only a mockup standing on the table and triumphant reports about localization and future trials. As they say - I believe what I see. Show more - there will be another conversation - but for now this is called marketing. hi
  12. Bayun
    Bayun 3 February 2018 23: 02
    0
    30 years ago, in strategic games, Russian generals crossed the Elbe and the Seine. Now - the Dnieper.
    1. Redfox3k
      Redfox3k 6 February 2018 09: 42
      0
      The situation ... it is so unpredictable. We force the Dnieper (nafig he surrendered) - the stench to the very Seine will be such that you disdain and force the Elbe.