Military Review

C factor


The situation in the People’s Republic of China can be characterized as a turning point, and the consequences can have an impact not only on the political appearance of the country's elite, but also on the fate of the whole Celestial. The possible third term of Xi Jinping as chairman of the PRC is discussed in the media and the expert community.

This requires an amendment to the constitution, which has changed over the past three and a half decades (from 1982 year) only four times. The third term will give C an opportunity to remain in power after the 2023 year. A sign of the coming changes was the II Plenum of the Central Committee of the CPC, which ended in January, at which top party leadership predictably came up with the idea of ​​changing the basic law, and the All-China People's Representatives Congress (NPC) will be able to make the necessary amendment at a session scheduled for March. Earlier in the state media of China published a message about the creation of a new body to counter corruption. The People's Daily in October passed the words of the deputy secretary of the CPC Central Committee Commission for Discipline Inspection, the Minister of Control of the People's Republic of China, as well as the head of the Anti-Corruption Prevention Department, Yan Xiaodu, that during the deepening of the structural reform of the system, the National Committee for Discipline Inspection and Supervision will be created focused on strengthening the centralized leadership of the CCP in anti-corruption work, building a unified, authoritative and effective system of state control ... The new body will have the right detention, which will replace the measure of the “two orders”, according to which individuals are required at a certain time and place at the appointed place to clarify certain issues. “Two decrees” are not a legal norm, their application causes various kinds of misunderstandings. One of the goals of creating a committee is to avoid such inconsistencies. A characteristic feature of the new special body is its difference from the control regime adopted in the West with the division of powers into legislative, executive and judicial. In fact, the National Committee for Discipline Inspection and Supervision is super-governmental, super-judicial and super-prosecutorial, and most likely will be headed directly by Xi Jinping. Some analysts believe that the main difference between the new structure is the ability to control non-party officials and businessmen. The Central Commission of the CPC Central Committee for Discipline Inspection does not have such powers.

If the committee submits to the current head of state, of course, it can be used as a powerful tool against his opponents in the Chinese elite, which has a very complex structure. Sy himself belongs to the clan of "princes" - children and in general relatives of high-ranking officials. However, this group is not monolithic. On the contrary, the relatives of the "cones" are included both among the supporters of the current General Secretary and the Shanghai clan. Some analysts believe that the Shensin political group and a number of high-ranking military from the PLA stand behind Xi. As it was reported several years ago by the Xinhua Agency, the Secretary General himself stated that in no case should the creation of factions within a party be allowed. With a rigid hierarchical organization, the avoidance of cronyism means the defeat of competitors and the concentration of power. Thus, the new structure can become a repressive body. This phrase should not be demonized, as is customary in neoliberals. In practice, it is often impossible to separate the fight against corrupt officials from domestic politics. And in any country of the world the elite (or the party, if we talk about one-party systems) always stands above the law and acts on the basis of its internal rules. The law, that is, punishment, is applied against a member of the elite only when he was defeated in the internal political struggle or went against the generally secret rules, without having significant support or losing it. Repressive measures are common, especially in the crisis stage of social development. In this aspect, China is no different from any "democracy", where power and other departments are used by the power group as a tool to influence opponents. The national committee can be used against non-partisans and businessmen who rely on the opposing groups and their fellow members of the CCP. In addition, the complete centralization of leverage in the hands of X will give him the opportunity to avoid bureaucratic delays in relation to specific individuals, of whom it is necessary to take a pair of riches.

If the elimination of opposition groups and factionalism within the party under the pretext of fighting corruption and securing the dominant position of their own group will be used by the current chairman of the PRC to implement the course outlined at the XIX CPC Congress, there is a chance to minimize the risks for the nomenclature and China as a whole.

Turn to the Soviet experience. One of the reasons that led to the degradation of the CPSU apparatus was the blocking of vertical mobility during the Brezhnev period (the notorious stagnation), when people from the lower ranks were not allowed into the higher cohort. The result is known - the aging of the nomenclature, intellectual dementia, inadequate understanding of the challenges that existed at that time, both within the state and outside, moral and volitional decay, and so on. n The Soviet experience in China is remembered and taken into account. As comrade Stalin Mao Zedongu said in 1950, “learn more from our mistakes than from our successes.” In this regard, it is extremely important to analyze the idea of ​​keeping Xi Jinping in power for at least another term. In the medium term, this step can have very negative consequences. Apparently, the National Committee for Discipline Inspection and Supervision will be one of the tools of pressure on the part of the clans inside the CCP, which do not accept the idea of ​​a third term for Xi. Accordingly, the concentration of power will allow the current head of the PRC not only to strengthen the authority and push through reforms, but also to win the most valuable resource for their implementation - time. Given the strategic plans of C, this is not surprising. But if the third term becomes a reality, a dangerous precedent will be created. Firstly, what are the guarantees that the current Secretary General will not enlist the support for the extension of his powers and beyond. Secondly, it is obvious that sooner or later the successor to Xi Jinping will appear, which corresponds to the Chinese political tradition. However, what if he, according to his intellectual and organizational abilities, will not be as powerful as his predecessor? And where are the guarantees that the winning group will not insist on making another amendment to the PRC Constitution, which will spell out more than two terms not only the head of state, but also, say, the members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CC CPC? In this case, the erosion of the party itself will begin, since the Politburo and the entire Central Committee will follow the Post-Committee. The final result will be the irremovability of key figures and degradation both morally and intellectually and physiologically. Further, in the midst of such an evolving elite, the corruption component and appetites in general will increase, with a high probability leading to the formation of regional clans, which is especially alarming in the case of China, since this aspect is extremely important for the country. Increased corruption at the top will inevitably entail the isolation of local kings, which will become unprofitable to remain in a single state. Decomposition of the nomenclature will only enhance the uneven development of China, the radical economic and cultural differences of the regions, which means that these factors can be used by local elites to start a chain reaction of separatism. As a result, we arrive at a paradoxical at first glance conclusion: Xi Jinping’s actions aimed at fighting corruption and carrying out the intended course through asserting himself in power for a third term are able to start the process of stagnation with the risk of decomposition of the entire ruling stratum. Such a scenario looks purely hypothetical and still deserves attention. We make the assumption that the chairman of C should never remain for a third term in order not to initiate a destructive cascade effect within the party by activating erosion in anti-decomposing mechanisms. So far, there is only one alternative - the search for an equivalent successor in the younger generation of party-state leaders, who, after 2023, will continue the planned course.

For us, destabilization of the neighbor is extremely unprofitable. The collapse of a huge, extremely complex state with a tendency to grow into bloody civil strife, of which for the most part consists история, will have a tectonic impact on the whole world and first of all on Russia. The presence of the PRC nuclear weapons, the risk of huge migration flows to our country is only a fraction of the threats. Naturally, it must be remembered that China has no allies except himself, and the flowering of relations between Beijing and Moscow corresponds only to the current historical segment. In addition, it is important to bear in mind that inside the Celestial Empire there are also forces with a clearly anti-Russian color.
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Cartalon
    Cartalon 31 January 2018 06: 09
    Adequately written
    1. Megatron
      Megatron 31 January 2018 17: 05
      Always surprised by these same "migration flows." It seems like the border is locked with us, and what, the Chinese, will trample on machine guns? It is clear that in the geyrop, it is all planted from above, taking refugees from different holes. But did we take into account the sad experience?
  2. ImPerts
    ImPerts 31 January 2018 06: 12
    I got the impression that as soon as the domestic political component is being established in China, centrifugal processes begin and China falls into a civil war.
    1. To be or not to be
      To be or not to be 31 January 2018 11: 05
      All according to the SINUSOID: - bottom .. huge minus - zero .. balance - rise - PIC .skat .. zero-down .. huge minus .. wink
      Seriously .. "The capitalist cycle is a constantly repeating movement of capitalist production from one economic crisis to another. It includes the phases:

      stirring up
      climb .."
  3. vlad007
    vlad007 31 January 2018 06: 32
    An interesting situation in China is that they have no leverage over non-partisan businessmen, and given that these non-partisans can be very rich people who depend only on the market situation, it turns out that it is impossible to control the country only with the help of the Communist Party. A non-partisan businessman cannot be ordered, you cannot call him on the carpet, etc. It seems that "for which they fought, they ran into something."
    And they want to create the Commission for Control and Supervision, so that there is someone to compromise on non-party businessmen — the party organs cannot, this is not their patrimony.
    1. Dr_engie
      Dr_engie 4 February 2018 15: 06
      And why should there be an opportunity to ORDER him? If he does everything according to the law, then what kind of H.I. state should he climb in his affairs?
      And C got sick with megalomania.
  4. Bastinda
    Bastinda 31 January 2018 06: 47
    As a result, we arrive at a paradoxical at first glance conclusion: Xi Jinping’s actions aimed at fighting corruption and carrying out the intended course through asserting himself in power for a third term are able to start the process of stagnation with the risk of decomposition of the entire ruling stratum.

    The question is whether in the current head of the PRC his personal ambitions to stand next to Deng Xiaoping or even with the Great Helmsman, or whether the strategic risks to the party that can trigger catastrophic processes, seem to Ci that red line that he refuses to overstep.

    We didn’t even have such a question. Glory to the Great Putin! laughing
    1. dauria
      dauria 31 January 2018 17: 06
      We didn’t even have such a question. Glory to the Great Putin!

      Why so scream? The Roosevelt Americans elected for the fourth term - and did not “rot”. It would never occur to anyone to change Stalin (not out of fear, but simply WHY?). If really GREAT, then why change it? And Putin, well, Putin - it is still unclear what he is, whose, and what he was going to do next ...
      1. a.sirin
        a.sirin 31 January 2018 23: 55
        The more "great" the leader, the more often you need to change him
        1. dauria
          dauria 31 January 2018 23: 57
          the more often you need to change it

          Is always ? But what about "horses at the crossing do not change"?
          1. a.sirin
            a.sirin 1 February 2018 01: 06
            Is always. Horses change when you need to change to a car
  5. Odysseus
    Odysseus 31 January 2018 07: 04
    Indeed, within the PRC there is a sharp struggle between various groups in the party and, accordingly, in the country. Moreover, the essence of these contradictions is much deeper than individual personnel issues or the question of whether Comrade will remain in power for four more years. which, in the case of an ideocratic state, play a decisive role in politics. China has become the first economy in the world, but what next? Continue to develop private business at the risk that private owners, with their primacy of profit over public interest, will sweep away the party? Or, on the contrary, strengthen the public sector of the economy? How to get out of the situation of only a producing economy without entering the Cold War with the West plus Japan? And in general, to divide the world with the United States or enter into economic, ideological, and military rivalry with them? How to educate Chinese society and the party itself in the ideals of "socialism with Chinese characteristics" and what are these ideals? All these issues are superimposed on the interests of specific people, groups, clans, and industrial sectors. etc.
    As for the article, then, IMHO, most of its provisions are doubtful. Perestroika in the USSR did not begin at all because of insufficient staff rotation (rather, on the contrary, while the “old people” were alive, they blocked it), the lack of separation of powers, this is not at all a feature of some “special authority”; this is a generic feature of the Soviet government in general - “all power to the soviets ", for the PRC there will be no problem that Comrade Xi will spend another 4 years in power, moreover, it will not be a problem even for his group - well, he uses these four years to win his group, but then he will give up power in a stable situation, it is completely incomprehensible why the author connects the hypothetical extension of powers from 8 to 12 years with some apocalyptic scenarios, and finally, the arguments from our sad present on the topic of "destabilization of the PRC" look completely frivolous, it is as if the Mexicans would start talk about the "US collapse" because of Trump's policies.
  6. Loess
    Loess 31 January 2018 08: 28
    Kancelerin Merkel, Vladimir Vladimirovich, comrade Xi ... In my opinion, the elites and the population’s craving for stability in power "on the face" ...
    HEATHER 31 January 2018 09: 40
    Yuan instead of the dollar. Already oil is only in yuan. And rubles. Well, I don’t know what is worse.
    1. Dr_engie
      Dr_engie 4 February 2018 15: 08
      China is no better than the United States, just a flask is beneficial to pretend to be a friend, that's all.
    HEATHER 31 January 2018 10: 46
    Another powerful neighbor to defend. However, it’s time.
  9. antiexpert
    antiexpert 31 January 2018 19: 12
    Let us turn to the Soviet experience. One of the reasons that led to the degradation of the CPSU apparatus was the blockage of vertical mobility in Brezhnev's time (the notorious stagnation), when people from the lower ranks were not allowed into the higher cohort. The result is known - nomenclature aging, intellectual dementia, inadequate understanding of the challenges that existed at that time, both within the state and from the outside, moral-volitional decline, etc.
    Well, if someone didn’t know or forgot, this is not a bug, but a feature that is tightly sewn into the operating system called “Mraxism” tightly, and it’s impossible to cut it out from there, the grandson of the two rabbis, Marx, provided it with a shot))
  10. Mih1974
    Mih1974 3 February 2018 00: 40
    Let’s be sober - this is such a distant prospect and “not our problem” that you should not even bother much. Yes, we’ll make a “notch”, and make an estimate of “*** to the nose” and - put it all in a long box. How much more dangerous and faster is the situation developing in Russia and the USA. All bad forecasts come true and what is much worse - earlier than "carefully" predicted. belay