Military Review

Before whom did Erdogan squander "AWACS"? Break Russian-Turkish relations can move into a hot phase


An extremely alarming scenario for the division of the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic was outlined immediately after the suppression of government forces (using tactical and strategic aviation The Russian Aerospace Forces, as well as the Russian Navy) of the last large ISIS fortified areas (IS, banned in the Russian Federation) in line with the Euphrates, as well as numerous defenders Jabhat al-Nusra and IS in the western province of Idlib. While the Syrian government forces, together with specialists from the Russian army, are doing everything possible and impossible, freeing up the strategically important Abu Duhur air base in Idlib, and also continuing to develop an offensive in the northern operational direction to close the large tactical cauldron Jebhat al-Nusra ( banned in the Russian Federation) in the provinces of Aleppo and Hama, Washington fluently forms a new army of many thousands to oppose the SAA, as well as contain territorial claims of Ankara to the lands of Rozhava (Syria Who Kurdistan).

The formation, called the New Syrian Army, will be represented by thousands of ISIL and Dzhebhat an-Nusra militants who have fled from half-hens, as well as representatives of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, who are armed with fairly modern small arms and anti-tank weapons, and also take wing of the US Central Command. To legally substantiate such actions, the White House and the Pentagon are already planning to deploy an impressive diplomatic corps in Rakka and Hasek this year. It turns out that the statements made by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the end of the APEC summit, as well as by UAR President Bashar Asad after the withdrawal of a part of the Russian military contingent from Avb Hamim and other military facilities in the country, unfortunately, do not quite correspond to reality. Recall that in their December statements, the leaders of the states noted that thanks to the operational actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the CAA, they managed to save Syria’s territory. In reality, only about half of the territory today is under the control of the army of Bashar al-Assad; the rest is firmly assigned to the pro-American SDFs (around 25-30% of the territory), rebels from the pro-Turkish “Syrian Free Army” and “moderate opposition” in the provinces of Aleppo, Idlib, Darya and Homs (around 20% of the territory, including the US Marine Corps under control 55-kilometer safety zone on the Jordan-Syrian border).

The most difficult and unpredictable situation today is around the Kurdish canton of Afrin, which is actually a large tactical cauldron of the Kurdish YPG detachments, separated from the Rozhava by a large enclave subordinated to Ankara "Free Syrian Army". Skillfully manipulating the fact of cardinal disagreements between the current Syrian leadership and Rozhava regarding a military-political settlement, Turkey has been trying to find arguments for a forceful cleansing of the weakened Afrikan canton, deprived of military-technical assistance from Washington and other regional Kurdish cantons (Jazir, Kobani and Shahba). Ankara’s worst nightmare today is a possible Kurdish breakthrough of the tactical “corridor” from the Manbij area towards Afrin, where the ultimate goals will be: the return of the Afrin canton to Syrian Kurdistan, as well as the likely further release of the Kurdish forces in the “New Syrian Army” to the Mediterranean coast . In the current situation, only the possession of the port infrastructure can help Rozhava to build more or less stable trade and economic relations with Western countries, and for the Americans to export tens and hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil from the Al-Omar oil field). But in the above breakout attempt there is an important feature.

The catch is that to reach the Mediterranean coast, the Kurds in the SDF and the New Syrian Army need to attack not only through the northern part of the Idlib governorate controlled by the SSA and regular units of the Turkish army, but also through the 13,5 km section of the province Latakia, controlled by the Syrian government forces. The implementation of such a plan absolutely does not suit either Moscow or Damascus, since this will ensure the full development of the Rozhava as a powerful regional player with the support of Washington. It is on these "strings" that Erdogan is trying to play, preparing the operational and tactical base for stripping the canton of Afrin. Also, the Turkish president is trying to play on the moment that the States continue to supply the Kurdish SDF with a new large batch of TOW-2B anti-tank missile systems and other weapons that can later be used against the Syrian armed forces on the west coast of the Euphrates. At the same time, the sweep Afrin is brought under the operation “Euphrates Shield”, which was started earlier.

In early January 2018, the operational situation in the vicinity of the canton became noticeably aggravated. A few days before Recep Erdogan’s loud statements about the preparation of an offensive “backbone” for the attack on Afrin, the Turkish Armed Forces ordered the transfer to the territory of the friendly enclave of the “Free Syrian Army” (FSA) in the province of Aleppo ( Aleppo batteries of the Improved Hawk anti-aircraft missile system, photographs of the elements of which were published on the Turkish and Western Internet in early January. Only one assumption can be made on this score: the “I-Hawk” complex is deployed exclusively for the “muscle game” demonstration purpose. The whole "trick" here is that the YPG / YPJ units do not have manned tactical aircraft and cruise missiles that could become targets for the Hawk, and the territorial reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles are capable of flying at low-altitude lines (less than 30 m), which are inaccessible to the I-Hawk anti-aircraft missile system due to the imperfection of the parabolic radar station for illumination of AN / MPQ-46 targets, as well as the semi-active radar guidance system of the MIM-23B SAM system, which has a low interference immunity Reflections of a centimeter ray of illumination from the earth / water surface.

Even if we take into account the fact that the support of the Kurdish National Self-Defense Detachment will be provided by the “New Syrian Army” under the cover of tactical aviation of the US Navy and Air Force operating at low (45-150) and medium (4-7 km) altitudes “Improved Hawk” missile complex will be in such a collision a loser, since the AN / MPQ-46 target illumination radar can “capture” only one air target, while a massed rocket-air strike involves the use of several dozen strategic / tactical wings. missiles RGM-109E «Tomahawk Block IV» type and / or AGM-158B «JASSM-ER». Even an anti-aircraft missile regiment of several “I-Hawk” complexes cannot cope with such a large number of air objects. Another important technological feature is that the sensitivity of the semi-active radar homing head of the MIM-23B SAM system allows you to work on objects with EPR within 0,1-0,2 square. m, while the effective reflective surface of the “JASSM-ER” may not even reach the 0,08-0,1 square. m

If the Turkish Air Force command seriously planned a clash with YPG units in the Afrin canton or the rest of Syrian Kurdistan (with state support), not one “sickly” battery would be thrown into the territory of “moderate opposition” and SSA to the margins of the obsolete anti-aircraft missile complex "I-Hawk", and at least a few of their units for the implementation of multi-channel work on aerial targets. In addition to the transfer of the Hawks to the province of Aleppo, there was another interesting event that occurred on January 11 of the year 2018.

In particular, quite suddenly, in the airspace above the Turkish silt of Gaziantep, a flight of a Boeing 737 AEW & C Peace Eagle aircraft was recorded, which scanned the airspace over Syrian Kurdistan using a multifunctional 2-way AFAR- MESA S-band radar, which allows tracking up to 180 VCs at a distance of 350-500 km. This became known from a Western online resource / tactical news cards with a link to the online flight monitoring portals of aircraft with transponders turned on.

The activity of whose tactical aviation was attempted to be tracked by the operators of the Peace Eagle by the Turkish Air Force is not yet known, but the already growing conflict between the pro-Turkish “Free Syrian Army” and the government forces of Syria over the territories defeated by “Dzhebhat al-Nusra” is already well visible. For example, on January 12, 2018, pro-Turkish militants of the SSA (FSA) conducted a successful local offensive "jerk" in the direction of the settlement. Al-Hiyara, beating him from the Syrian Arab Army. Moreover, SFA formations in the northern part of the province of Hama shot down our Orlan-10 UAV, which conducted reconnaissance of the Dzhebhat al-Nusra positions near the rebels. And this is a very alarming “indicator” of Erdoогan’s playing a double game.

At the same time, the remarkable situation is that the Kurdish canton of Afrin up to 11 in December 2017 was attended by units of the Russian military police that were deployed on 8 in September. They had an excellent sobering effect on Ankara, and it would not be difficult to return them to duty. Such a move would be extremely advantageous for Moscow, because the capture of the pro-Turkish so-called "moderate" Afrin promises a further rampant "moderate" pseudo-caliphate throughout the north of the SAR (up to reunion with the friendly "boiler" north of Homs). This only means that adequate interaction with the YPG troops in the canton of Afrin will make it possible to moderate the very dangerous imperial habits of Turkey with respect to the Syrian Arab Republic.

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  1. Chertt
    Chertt 15 January 2018 07: 22
    In any case, Kurdish-Turkish antagonism will be resolved by force. None of the parties is ready for negotiations. Whereas the Kurds were the more “reasonable” side of the conflict, now having finally formed an alliance (or vassality) with the United States, the Kurds are decisively moving towards their goal, at least uniting their enclaves in northern Syria, and as a result, gaining more weight in decisions about Syrian settlement
    1. Vard
      Vard 15 January 2018 07: 39
      Assad, by virtue of circumstances, is more loyal to the Kurds ... We are talking about autonomy .. But he will not agree with the attempt to create an independent state ..
      1. dSK
        dSK 15 January 2018 09: 32
        Hello Ward!
        Quote: Vard
        Assad is loyal to the Kurds
        After Hiroshima, the states changed the “creeping aggression” strategy instead of short-term 3-4 years. Small countries are swallowed whole, large states are crushed.
        Greed, like any passion has no limit. Complete, total power over the world.
      2. xetai9977
        xetai9977 15 January 2018 10: 40
        I don’t think that the Americans will give the TOW-2B Kurds, which they don’t export even to their closest allies, and even less so to the Kurds. And secondly, Erdogan will lay his bones, but will not allow the unification of Kurdish enclaves. This is out of the question. And the Americans are not stupid that for the sake of the Kurds they will be ready to finally quarrel with the Turks. At best, the current status quo will continue.
        1. demo
          demo 15 January 2018 11: 23
          Do you not consider another option?
          Remove Erdogan from this scheme, and what remains?
          So not everything is so straightforward and unambiguous.
          You can also explain the act of “Good Uncle Vova”, which helped Erdogan during the coup attempt.
          The arrival of a more flexible and less stubborn politician could allow the Americans to realize their idea.
          And so the Kurds are a suitcase without a handle.
        2. NEOZ
          NEOZ 15 January 2018 14: 36
          "TOW-2B" is not a panacea, and RPG 7 and the like will cope with Erdogan’s tanks ... but what will the USA lose if they finally quarrel with Turkey? the status quo does not suit anyone, so attempts to change the "status quo" will continue!
    2. Hanokem
      Hanokem 15 January 2018 08: 24
      I would be incredibly glad if Russia finally punches Perdogan with tinsel. There is no doubt that NATO will not pull the ointment behind Perdogan, so Russia’s hands are untied. Go Russia!!!
      1. Chertt
        Chertt 15 January 2018 08: 35
        Quote: Hanokem
        I would be incredibly glad if Russia finally punches Perdogan with tinsel

        You are still a very inexperienced representative of your flag laughing Such a child’s support, I haven’t read for a long time bully
        1. novel66
          novel66 15 January 2018 09: 41
          maybe he doesn’t know that for a moment Turkey is a member of NATO?
      2. iouris
        iouris 15 January 2018 12: 07
        Quote: Hanokem
        Russia has free hands. Go Russia!!!

        The knot will untie, the knot will be tied ...
      3. stas
        stas 15 January 2018 13: 49
        When a Jew from Israel dreams that Russia would fight with Turkey, is that a Jewish joke or .......
        1. passerby5
          passerby5 15 January 2018 17: 42
          why a joke: their tactics- let neighbors fight with neighbors. and they will bring water to both. for money)))
      4. Cossack 471
        Cossack 471 15 January 2018 18: 04
        The most cimus for Israel: bleed Russia and Turkey
      5. Sergey-8848
        Sergey-8848 18 January 2018 21: 05
        For a strange visitor under the nickname Hanokem and the corresponding flag: - Yours - on the other side.
  2. Stas157
    Stas157 15 January 2018 08: 05
    . The breakdown of Russian-Turkish relations may go into a hot phase

    It is, after all, the interests of Russia and Turkey are in conflict. This is an objective reality. Why did the Kremlin throw to its opponent Erdogan, so many trump cards (Akkuyu, Potok, ZRS)? Erdogan can defend his interests! He showed this to everyone by shooting down a Russian plane. And there was no punishment. What will prevent him from knocking down the next one?
    After the first plane shot down, Erdogan received an advanced S-400 system from Russia on credit. And what will get after the second? Iskander free? It seems that our grandmaster plays a giveaway ... of course, as part of a cunning plan that we do not yet know.
    1. Ronald Reagan
      Ronald Reagan 15 January 2018 09: 10
      The cunning plan is its absence. laughing
      1. Lycan
        Lycan 16 January 2018 10: 49
        For the time being. Although sometimes it can ride. But sometimes. wink
    2. lukewarm
      lukewarm 15 January 2018 15: 08
      Quote: Stas157
      Erdogan can defend his interests! He showed this to everyone by shooting down a Russian plane. And there was no punishment.

      No, they threatened him with tomatoes. Then he said: "It's not me, it's the conspirators." In the Russian Federation they breathed out: "Ugh, what didn’t you say right away?" And they gave the S-400. Well, so that the next time the pilot did not have to finish off the machine gun.
  3. parusnik
    parusnik 15 January 2018 08: 06
    The knot will be untied, the knot will be tied ... Turkey, currently for Russia, is neither a friend nor an enemy, and so ... Another codice ...
    1. demo
      demo 15 January 2018 11: 27
      Turkey is a means to solve their problems with the wrong hands.
      Not all are spoken. And some do not even think. Thought is such a thing that can materialize. Well if in that place and at the right time. And if not?
  4. Naputeon bonaput
    Naputeon bonaput 15 January 2018 08: 35
    Damn, again this tomato lord with his Great Port. What is it ?! But when does this vile deception stop? ! Well, why does he not recognize the superiority of Putin V.V.? Does he feel sorry for his tomatoes?
  5. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 15 January 2018 09: 16

    How's Wang? "Syria has not fallen yet ...."
  6. lukewarm
    lukewarm 15 January 2018 09: 24
    The Kurdish Card has been played since the time of Saddam and Desert Storm. They are a splinter for Erdogan, which in principle is very good. good, but they also destroy the integrity of Syria, which is bad. And what is very bad - they are pro-American. Although at one time it seemed to me that the Kurds are not united, that some of them can be negotiated. And now ... Most likely they will still have their own state and it will be an American puppet. Erdogan will rub off, and the Russian Federation will rub off twice. Well, once again he will express concern and Zakharova will tweet something caustic and witty.
    1. Hottabych
      Hottabych 16 January 2018 00: 02
      And why Russia will rub off? Russia came there to stop the terrorists and she did it, and also consolidated its base. And the problem of the Kurds and deserts of Syria - these are secondary problems and are no longer ours.
      It is another matter that Turkey does not pile up firewood, because if the same starts in Turkey, it will be bad. Turkey is nearby!
  7. SPLV
    SPLV 15 January 2018 09: 42
    Fat minus would you, Eugene, for the first time appearing in articles "rebels"! What, rebels and rebels are no longer in vogue? I don’t even know if your native language is Russian, if you allow yourself such liberties with it. Maybe stop braking people ?! I hope this expression is available to you?
  8. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 15 January 2018 09: 50
    Erdogan will not add up his price ... play out somehow and get the Syrian script at home. He, as I understand it, actively has the brain of the USA and the Russian Federation, but he generally sent to the EU and he has no local competitors.
  9. Tektor
    Tektor 15 January 2018 10: 58
    While the states support the Kurds, Erdobaran has no choice but to maintain “partner” relations with Russia. The situation will immediately change to the opposite if the states leave. And therefore, for us it would be a winning option if the Kurds with the states would mate with the Turks. That would have turned out to be a tight kneading, where we just need to step back and not interfere.
    1. NEOZ
      NEOZ 15 January 2018 14: 46
      what if:
      Turkey begins fighting with the Kurds and catches on amers, Americans declare Erdogan a criminal / dictator. a military operation is being carried out to eliminate Erdogan and people loyal to him (KR, Air Force, MTR, etc.). at the head of Turkey stands a protege of the United States .... as if the option for the Russian Federation is not particularly winning ...
  10. antiamerikan
    antiamerikan 15 January 2018 13: 31
    one thing is clear - you can not trust the Ottoman Turkoman

    stick a knife in the back and do not choke
    1. passerby5
      passerby5 15 January 2018 17: 49
      just do everything a follower of mohamed in this regard can not be trusted. they have written in the Koran (ayah of the sword) all neurites (well, not Muslims) should either be enslaved, or be put to death by CHOKING THE HEAD. and also: while we are few (Muslims), sit quietly, maintain normal relations, etc. and how will become more then ... read paragraph 1
  11. EnGenius
    EnGenius 15 January 2018 14: 47
    That Turkey, that the USA, although to a lesser extent, is now very diplomatically constrained. In fact, Russia has already announced the defeat of ISIS and Trump also boasted, and therefore only Russia can legally be in Syria. Any attempt to convene the UN Security Council will lead to a constant fact of his helplessness. Open condemnation in the world press of US actions will play against them in the future, especially in the light of the current policy of tightening the screws, and there will be more dissatisfied. In fact, now the United States itself fell into the trap set for Russia in Ukraine.
  12. flicker
    flicker 15 January 2018 15: 34
    Independent Kurdistan is a powerful BV bomb. The Americans want to saddle this bomb, saddling blackmail everyone who is next to it (Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran and the rest will get nuts). Well, at the right time and completely blow up.
    But you can saddle it only if independent Kurdistan is not an enclave. Therefore, the struggle either for access to the Mediterranean Sea
    "that in order to reach the Mediterranean coast, the Kurds in the" SDF "and the" New Syrian Army "need to advance not only through the northern part of Idlib governorate, controlled by the SSA and regular units of the Turkish army, but also 13,5 km from the Latakia province, controlled by the Syrian government forces. "
    Or a land corridor to Jordan, but this option, after controlling Syria by Abu Kemal, is very complicated.
    While the Kurds are in the enclave, they are not interested in rushing with Kurdistan, it’s another matter that the states are pushing them.
    The Kurds, it seems, all the options are not very good.
  13. Radikal
    Radikal 15 January 2018 16: 24
    Quote: Stas157
    . The breakdown of Russian-Turkish relations may go into a hot phase

    It is, after all, the interests of Russia and Turkey are in conflict. This is an objective reality. Why did the Kremlin throw to its opponent Erdogan, so many trump cards (Akkuyu, Potok, ZRS)? Erdogan can defend his interests! He showed this to everyone by shooting down a Russian plane. And there was no punishment. What will prevent him from knocking down the next one?
    After the first plane shot down, Erdogan received an advanced S-400 system from Russia on credit. And what will get after the second? Iskander free? It seems that our grandmaster plays a giveaway ... of course, as part of a cunning plan that we do not yet know.

    Can the grandmaster take the word in quotation marks? winked smile
  14. gerkost2012
    gerkost2012 15 January 2018 19: 00
    How many extra words in the article. Are such US actions unexpected? You fight, and we will get the result of victory. So it was in the 2nd MV, and Syria is a modern example of this. And they will divide it into pieces and will spoil further.
  15. Buka001
    Buka001 15 January 2018 19: 23
    The author is either an Armenian or a henchman of ov. Otherwise, there is no way to explain this nonsense about Turkey, and attempts to make it an enemy of Russia !!! So to denigrate so to speak in the eyes of the people. If only this frightening west the union of Turkey and Russia has broken up. And do not care that it will bring great harm. The main thing is that they do not become friends completely !! Writing such articles are the enemies of Russia !!!
  16. Anchonsha
    Anchonsha 16 January 2018 00: 50
    As the Turks were wrong partners, they will remain so. We can not disagree if Erdogan does not stop playing a double game. Merikans lead their game, which does not coincide with the American, and therefore Erdogan will lose everywhere.