Military Review

Axis Moscow - Ankara?

Axis Moscow - Ankara?

It seems that the year approaching the end of 2017 will be a landmark in terms of changing the geopolitical situation in Eurasia, which, of course, will change the whole picture at the global level. The latest events in the international political arena demonstrate the previously unthinkable rapid rapprochement between Russia and Turkey. Two seemingly eternal military, religious and political adversaries who, after the incident with the downed Russian bomber, were on the verge of a complete breakup of relations, not only concluded a temporary “truce”, but demonstrated a truly amazing boost in almost all areas of cooperation.

Of course, such a maneuver did not go unnoticed by the army of political experts and analysts. However, in explaining the new Russian-Turkish political phenomenon, the overwhelming majority of them demonstrate surprising short-sightedness, based on the interpretation of the latest landmark events solely from the personal characteristics of Erdogan. Saying, faced with the rejection in the West of their authoritarian methods and adherence to Islamic ideology, Erdogan made a demonstrative, but temporary, turn towards Moscow. And with any positive foreign policy sign of attention from the US or the EU, it will instantly turn its back on Russia. However, there are a number of points that make us think that changing the priorities of official Ankara is a long-term one.

First, with all his dictatorial manners, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was and remains a pragmatist. An example of this is his position regarding Turkey’s accession to the European Union. If someone does not know, then the idea of ​​the entry of the Turkish Republic into the structures of a united Europe for Ankara for many decades was a fundamental, if you will, ideological one. Indeed, since the time of Kemal Ataturk, most of the Turkish intellectual, military and political elite have thought of themselves as Europeans. Turkey is an associate member of the EU since the 1964 of the year, and the formal application for membership was submitted back in the 1987 year. Think about it, for thirty years the Turks have been waiting for, and when their European aspirations will be appreciated. And what is the result? Two key continental players, France and Germany, were and remain strongly opposed to this, regardless of the change in their own internal political course. Germany, having conducted an unsuccessful multicultural experiment, fears the uncontrolled growth of the Turkish diaspora, and France traditionally finds a reason to talk about human rights violations, disguising a deep aversion to a country with a large population and a promising economy.

What is the result of Turkish "European integration" today? And the bottom line is: Erdogan, being a realist, did not bury his head in the sand and acknowledged publicly the fact that the EU is, in fact, a closed Christian club, which Turkey will never accept under any circumstances. Consequently, it is not worth trying. Think about it: for the first time in three decades, the political leader of Turkey declared a rejection of the foreign policy line, which was before that a constant of the entire national foreign policy! However, nature does not tolerate emptiness, and the gaping dip in the western direction should be compensated by something. And we see that the ship of Turkish foreign policy confidently headed for the north.

Secondly, Ankara’s crisis with the North Atlantic Alliance has been observed for several years now, "culminating" in a recent scandal at the training exercises in Norway, when images of Turkish political leaders, including Ataturk, were used as targets for shooting. But this malicious insult from military "allies" is just petty hooliganism compared to what happened in the 2015 year. The fact is that, despite the size of its armed forces (second place in the entire NATO bloc), there is a significant gap in Turkey’s defense capability. We are talking about the absence of modern echeloned air defense (AD). All attempts by Ankara to purchase Patriot complexes from its American partners failed due to the fundamental unwillingness of the United States. Unwillingness to arm with modern defensive weapons The "friends" on whose territory the Americans have a huge, strategically important Incirlik air base have long been masked by the ranting that the American and German Patriots deployed in the country already guarantee the safe skies of Turkey. And only by extending to the Americans permission to use the airbase in 2015, the Turks were surprised to learn that the "guarantors" unilaterally decided to remove the complexes from duty! To say that trust in NATO partners has been undermined is to say nothing. Considering that the legislative base of the alliance does not at all envisage the mandatory entry of the Allies into the war in case of an attack on one of the participants, leaving the decision to the discretion of the national governments, the Turks had to ask themselves: who then Russia should be for them? Strategic adversary or strategic partner? The signing of a contract for the supply of the latest Russian C-400 air defense systems against the background of contracts concluded earlier with Moscow in the field of energy transportation and nuclear energy makes it clear what answer the Turkish side has come to. The fact is that the Russian C-400, which is fundamentally not integrated into a single NATO air defense system, means in practice the beginning of long-term cooperation (training of operators and supply of components), as well as the design of a national defense-level defense system with extensive involvement of the Russian military-industrial complex capable of offering a large range of ground-based complexes.

Thus, we are witnessing how Turkey is making a cardinal geopolitical turn towards Russia. Already signed contracts only make sense if their implementation is prolonged for at least 50 years. And there is an absolute certainty that Russia will not alienate the Turkish partners in the way that America and Europe did.
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  1. samarin1969
    samarin1969 14 December 2017 06: 43
    In addition to coordinating military operations in Syria, there are no real steps towards rapprochement between the Russian Federation and Turkey. The Turks got what they wanted "did not merge" the Syrian Turkamons and legally broke off in the Kurds ... For the Turks, Russia is something in between an enemy and a geopolitical adversary. What kind of “axis” can there be?
    1. Grandfather
      Grandfather 14 December 2017 07: 00
      if you recall the history of relationships, you should not turn your back ...
      1. dSK
        dSK 14 December 2017 10: 54
        Hello grandfather!
        Quote: Dead Day
        remember the story
        History cannot be forgotten. When during the “Korean War” the States “made carpets” with Boeing, Russia saved its neighbors. And now maybe another one in the east "axis“formed.” A delegation of the Russian Ministry of Defense takes part in the first meeting of the Russia-North Korea joint military commission in Pyongyang. The implementation of an intergovernmental agreement on the prevention of dangerous military activities is on the agenda. In the DPRK, the Russian delegation is led by Deputy Head of the Russian Defense Management Center Rear Admiral Viktor Kalganov. Represents North Korea at a meeting Major General Park Ho Chol, Deputy Chief of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army. (The first Russian TV channel "Tsargrad" 09: 43., 14.12.17/XNUMX/XNUMX)hi
  2. Nix1986
    Nix1986 14 December 2017 07: 21
    Yeah, the Turks are our brother and comrade. Author go make up the story.
    1. Same lech
      Same lech 14 December 2017 07: 23
      Yeah Turks us brother and comrade

      smile And brother and comrade ... with a dagger behind him ...
      so don’t turn your back on such a bro ... it will be bad.
  3. parusnik
    parusnik 14 December 2017 08: 09
    Axis Moscow - Ankara?

    - As it gets dark, we will take the cash desk.
    “And he will go?” - All!
    So he will split at this jump, radish, at the very first out!
    Come here, Fedya, take the paper, write:
    radish is not a good person; to split is to betray, to confess.
    Shucher - danger, leap - robbery.
    Wrote down?
    Now, Fedya, tell Vasya everything you told him in civilian language.
    This bad man will betray us at the first danger.
  4. Loess
    Loess 14 December 2017 08: 14
    Faced with the West’s rejection of its authoritarian methods and commitment to Islamic ideology, Erdogan made a demonstrative, but temporary turn towards Moscow. And with any positive foreign policy attention from the United States or the EU, it will instantly turn its back on Russia.
    Be that as it may, but from this "temporary reversal" you need to squeeze the maximum possible. The mere fact that, albeit temporarily, but will weaken the pressure of NATO on our southern borders is worth a lot.
  5. XII Legion
    XII Legion 14 December 2017 08: 21
    The term Axis resembles the old Rome-Berlin-Tokyo.
    However, Turkey just as never will be an ally of Russia - a true partner.
  6. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 14 December 2017 08: 36
    While relations with Turkey are normal, it is simply necessary for Russia to extract all possible benefits from this. Because it is not known what will happen tomorrow with this relationship.
  7. sa-ag
    sa-ag 14 December 2017 09: 45
    There is no axis, but a whole crankshaft :-)
  8. russia2016
    russia2016 14 December 2017 14: 38
    Something similar already happened in 1940, like Hitler and Stalin;) Illusions about the allied relations with Turkey, Russia does not need to build, what axis is there in FIG ??? This is not the axis, but the straw bridge that the Turks burn at the first opportunity
    1. KaPToC
      KaPToC 14 December 2017 20: 07
      Quote: russia2016
      Illusions about allied relations with Turkey, Russia does not need to build, what axis is there in FIG ???

      The history of the confrontation between Russia and Turkey is connected with the colonial policy of the leading powers. Turkey was under France and Russia was in the wake of British politics. Turks are more honest and reliable than any Western European nation
    2. Paranoid50
      Paranoid50 17 December 2017 21: 18
      Quote: russia2016
      This is not the axis, but the straw bridge that the Turks burn at the first opportunity

      Duc, this is their problem - they drown, if that. yes Only no one will lend a hand, from the word "completely" ... Well, perhaps, Israel - that would sink more deeply. wassat
  9. datur
    datur 14 December 2017 23: 37
  10. iouris
    iouris 18 December 2017 01: 21
    Wasp is such a big yellow flies.
  11. Victorio
    Victorio 18 December 2017 22: 58
    Turkey is at odds with the West and the USA, and this is already a lot