As we predicted a few days before the beginning of the large-scale offensive operation of the CAA on the last major ISIL fortified area - the southern city of Abu Kemal (including the neighborhood), after taking control of most of it by the forces of the Syrian army and allies, the US leadership compensation of the operational-strategic defeat, which caused the loss of the entire southern operational direction, in which the creation of a tactical “corridor” from Abu Kemal to At-Tanf initially loomed. Kurdish access (YPG / YPJ) to the Mediterranean coast of Syria has been reliably blocked by thousands of units of the “Syrian Free Army”, supported by units of the regular Turkish army, as well as the CAA in the Idlib and Aleppo provinces. Moreover, the western enclave of the SDF (located in the north-western part of the Aleppo Governorate) continues to remain in the “cauldron” closed by the units of the NE of Turkey, the SSA and the CAA. From the main grouping of the "Syrian Democratic Forces" this enclave separates the pro-Turkish military "backbone" of the "Syrian Free Army", located between the cities of Azaz and Jarabulus. All areas are carefully controlled with the help of DER and reconnaissance UAVs of the Turkish Armed Forces, which is why the Kurds will not be able to make special, tactically advantageous “movements”.
The only way out for Washington could be another mnogohodovka, where initially, with the help of the "channels" of Riyadh, the anti-Assad forces of the SSA, acting against the Syrian army and Hezbollah, will be activated to weaken, and then fully controlled Kurdish troops will join. This is clearly expressed in today's aggravation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. At the same time, in this field, the activities of Americans will be constrained for many months or even years by the establishment of new post-war de-escalation zones in the Syrian theater, and therefore the only way to increase the Trump administration’s rating that has decreased to the curb level is to implement a successful force strategy in the Donbas theater of operations.
Such a strategy of Washington is fully traced in the details of the latest absurd initiative, distributed among the high-ranking officials of Congress and the US Department of State and which reached the ears of the journalists of the Wall Street Journal. We are talking about the preparation of proposals for the deployment of 20-thousandth international peacekeeping contingent on both sides of the contact line in the Donbas. It clarifies the publication, representatives of the leadership of the United States can submit this initiative to the Russian Federation is already "the next few days", moreover, they will "seek its approval from Moscow." How do you like this? Who are we generally accepted for in the international political arena ?!
To begin, consider the ongoing epic regarding the provision of Kiev funds for the purchase of lethal weapons, as well as permitted for the supply of types of these weapons. This fact alone testifies to the fact that Washington fully intends to model and “launch” the escalation in the Donbass by the beginning of 2018 - there can be no talk of any constructive here. If initially news A division of ABC News, citing 3 employees of the US State Department, stated that the most likely configuration was to provide Kiev with a 47-million package for the purchase of lethal weapons, then after the failure of the US plans for Abu Kemal, this figure is magic sticks, jumped to 175 million dollars!
Do not look at the figure in 350 million dollars, since such an amount will be available for Kiev only after James Mattis confirms a radical reform of the defense sector, which is unlikely to happen in the near future. But even 175 million dollars radically change the picture. According to official information provided by Valery Chalym, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, Kiev can spend these funds on acquiring radar detectors for integration into air defense missile systems, radar stations for detecting surface targets, as well as ships of the littoral zone and patrol boats (talking about the decommissioned coast guard and the US Navy).
But let's think logically. Why do Ukrainian militants have radars DRLO / ATC (early warning radar / air traffic control) AN / TPS-75 "Tipsy-75" or AN / TPS-59 (V) 3, when the Zaporozhye Scientific and Production Complex "Iskra" produces relatively advanced decimeter radar ARLO 79K6 "Pelican" with PFAR and meter MP-18. Moreover, the Ukrainian air defense is armed with a decent number of 36D6-M radar detectors of circular vision (developed by Iskra, Kaporozhye), assigned to the C-300PS anti-aircraft missile divisions. Consequently, funds can be spent on completely different shock-type weapons. As we pointed out in previous works, it can be both 155-mm guided M982 “Excalibur” ammunition and ACN M109A4 / 5 / 6 “Paladin”, some of which are conserved; Yes, and "Javelina" withdraw "out of the game" do not hurry. Despite Friday's statement by the representative of the Presidential Administration, Michael Anton, refuting consent to the supply of FGM-148 troops to the Independent Square, this weapon may well fall into the “Square” and other ways hidden from the ears and eyes of the media.
The 79K6 “Pelikan” radar complex is one of the most advanced radar tools developed by the Iskra Research and Production Complex (Zaporozhye). Survey radar is represented by a passive phased array decimeter S-band, capable of detecting high-altitude aerial targets at a distance of 400 km with simultaneous route tracking during the passage of 200 air objects at altitudes to 40 km. The disadvantage of the station is a low-angle scanning sector, reaching only 35 degrees. This flaw was corrected in the more modern 80K6T radar (video below) KPK SPC Iskra. Equipped with a digital phased array, the station has an 0 - 70 degrees oblique sector of the viewing / tracking sector and, in the “tracking on the aisle” mode, monitors 300 targets. The disadvantage of the 80K6T radar is the low detection height reaching 20 km
And against the background of all of the above (including new artillery strikes on LDNR), Moscow and the republic want to "bend" on 20000 peacekeepers under the auspices of the OSCE (note, not the UN) located in the Donbass. Many can now argue that, whatever the size of the peacekeeping contingent, their deployment only at the line of contact and for the escort of representatives of the OSCE SMM will have virtually no effect on the outcome of the impending aggravation of the conflict at the line of contact. But this opinion has little to do with the real tactical picture in the Donbas and the plans of Washington. Why, for security and peacekeeping functions alone, do they want to send 2 full-fledged divisions of armed “peacekeepers” to the Donbass? Shoot off insane militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who are often in a state of alcohol and drug intoxication or prevent the Ukrainian Hyacinths and Gradov from entering the shooting range? Naturally not.
These OSCE paramilitary forces are real “wolves in sheep's clothing”, which will begin to operate immediately at the time of the escalation of the conflict. Hiding behind the OSCE mandate, this whole gang will certainly be distributed along the operational directions of the most dense fire contact of the parties and will begin to fulfill its main function - the transfer of coordinates of artillery batteries and strong points of NM LDNR to the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. You can be sure that among the 20 thousand of so-called “peacekeepers” there will be a considerable number of “trafficked Cossacks” specializing in the deployment of radio beacons and conducting positional and territorial optical and radio intelligence. To do this, the OSCE has at its disposal a huge range of ground and airborne observation and targeting equipment with a range of more than 10 km.
More importantly, several thousand armed members of this pseudo-peacekeeping contingent, which is nothing more than the “ciphering” formation of the North Atlantic alliance, during the next exacerbation may advance to such localities as Novoazovsk, Amvrosiivka, Sverdlovsk and Krasnodon, where the main transport routes are located for operational redeployment of units of the armed forces of Russia; lethal weapons. In this case, in order to avoid the “Croatian scenario” in the Donbass, the Russian NE units will have to push this contingent back by force, regardless of the main argument of the NATO “peacekeepers” militants - the OSCE mandate. Nevertheless, in order to avoid such a complex and unpleasant scenario, where you have to act in the literal sense of the word “ahead”, the only way out for Moscow is to block this initiative in the UN Security Council. However, Moscow’s position on this matter was briefly and intelligibly conveyed to Kiev and Washington by the spokesperson of the Donetsk People’s Republic at the Minsk talks Denis Pushilin, who said that “the proposed number of peacekeeping contingent exceeds a reasonable need, since the OSCE observer on 1 in this case will have more 30 armed to the teeth guards.
Kiev and the West do not closely perceive the position of Russia and the republics, and, remarkably, they have already “agreed on everything”, which the illegitimate head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Pavel Klimkin, stated on the TV channel “Inter”. Based on the words of Klimkin, the main characters of this absurd “contract” are not even the so-called “guarantors of the Minsk format” Germany and France, but the USA and the United Kingdom. Obviously, the one who provides weapons, he orders “music”. The main protagonist on the part of the States in Klimka's “cunning plans” is the same “John Hawk’s apprentice hawk” - Kurt Volker, who almost every week expresses new and new formulas for deploying peacekeepers in Donbass, each of which has a pronounced escalation subtext .
While in the foreign policy field "Square", under the strict guidance of overseas "friends", continues to prepare the intricacies for the implementation of the new aggression against the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics already by March 2018 of the year, quite significant changes are also taking place in the domestic arena -political nature to create fertile pre-escalation soil. In particular, on November 3 2017, the illegally elected President of Ukraine P. Poroshenko decided to create a military-civil administration in the settlements of Shyrokyne and Berdyansk, located in 7 and 9 km from Mariupol, respectively. In simpler language, without the consent of the leadership of the DPR, the seizure of settlements located in the so-called “gray zone” was seized. It would seem, for which it would have been necessary to introduce front-line settlements, which will not once again become a theater of military operations (and will definitely be lost), into the structures of local government bodies "Square"? It is not difficult to answer this question.
The fact is that in these almost completely destroyed and uninhabited villages on the eastern approaches to Mariupol, part of the volunteer paramilitary group Azov (reached the number of regiments), units of the so-called 36th separate brigade of the Marine Corps (OBRMP) of the Armed Forces and nationalist paramilitary groups " Right Sector ”created several strong points, covered 3-4 tank companies (represented primarily MBT T-64BV and T-72A / M1) and more than 10 batteries of anti-tank howitzers 2A29 Rapira, towed howitzers D-20/30, as well as self-propelled guns Gvozdika and Akatsiya. From the fire of these batteries, such front-line settlements of the DPR on Novoazovskiy OH as Kominternovo, Sakhanka, Dzerzhinskoye and Bezymennoe regularly suffer.
Earlier, when civil-military administrations were not created in Shirokino and Berdyansk, the suppression of the artillery divisions of the DPR in response to the suppression often “calmed down” active firing points of the Ukrainian militants, but now the “independent” General Staff will have much more reasons to continue the “artillery duel” with the possible escalation of an offensive "throw" attempt. In this case, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have a very convenient and “iron motivation”: to justify its aggressive actions in the direction of the DPR, the junta will be shelling villages where a temporary state body, called the “military-civil administration”, has already started to function.
Knowing that a power interchange in the Donbass is inevitable, regardless of the position of the Russian Federation regarding the configuration of the “peacekeeping” contingent proposed by the US State Department, it is necessary to clearly understand why the Telman and the New Azov are considered to be the priority operational direction for the intensification of hostilities. We have already reminded several times of the “weakness” of the rear zone of the “Telmanovsky Isthmus”. Now the overlap of this tactically important area (for the purpose of dividing the 1-th AK of the NM of the DPR and the grouping of troops defending the Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration) is seen less and less in the General Staff of the Supreme Soviet of Ukraine.
This is due to the fact that Moscow clearly gave Kiev and the West to understand that there will be no “Yugoslav scenario” in the Donbas. Vladimir Putin publicly declared this in his speech at the Valdai International Discussion Club. If we interpret this important “signal” correctly in relation to Donbas TVD (in the military-political plane), then Russia opens up a terrible reality for the “independent”, from which the Euroschooters have lost all their thoughts about Javelins. Namely, in the event of a VSU attack on LDNR, no “Telmanovsky Isthmus” for Ukrainian militants is already foreseen, since the necessary maneuvering of company and battalion tactical groups of the People’s Militia of the DPR on the Southern Front can be carried out through the western border areas of the Rostov region, where Ukrainian “fighting horses” and the "jump" will not have time to get a powerful artillery "pill" from the artillery of the Southern Military District. Nobody will continue to play with Kiev “in leapfrog” on the bones of the population of Donbass! Enough 3 years!
The upcoming local offensive operation in the New Azov direction is associated exclusively with the fears of the Ukrainian elite to lose the only strategically important metallurgical city - Mariupol. The maximum that can be expected from the Armed Forces of Ukraine is an attempt at a preemptive “breakthrough” to Bezymenny and October to push aside the assault forces of the UMND DN from Mariupol. Let's hope that this plan of Kiev will also fail, and the militia will still be able to free Lebedinsky and take the strongholds of the nationalists and security forces under Mariupol under fire control. It is possible that we will be able to observe this immediately after the end of the autumn thaw and the onset of frost.
All predictions regarding the growth of tensions in the environs of Mariupol are not sucked from the finger, but clearly correspond to the operational information coming from both the Ministry of Defense of the DPR and informed local residents. For example, at the moment, as part of the next rotation, the 501 th separate battalion of marines, which is part of the 36 th OBMP, arrived in the area of Lebedinsky and Shirokino. Back in January, 2017, the units of this battalion were caught in a regular "worrying" fire from Čermalik in the direction of the settlements of Tauride, Naberezhne, etc. As it became known in the evening, on November 12, the militants of the 36 Submarine Division “marked” the next rotation in sector “M” with shelling of a power station providing electricity to the village of October; 120-mm portable mortars 2B11 were used, the village was also hit by fire Pishevik. We will continue to closely monitor the situation around the southern parts of the front of the Donetsk People's Republic and expect more decisive asymmetrical countermeasures to create military occupation authorities in the southern villages of the DPR, the possible adoption of which was declared by D. Pushilin.