The trump card is again in the sleeve of the United States. Consequences of the "de-escalation memorandum", or the test for "softness"

Despite the very productive outcome of the first extended meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, as well as between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the position of the current US administration on key geo-strategic issues remains almost unchanged. Naturally, it would be naive to assume that a two-hour meeting at the Hamburg exhibition center, within the framework of the G20 summit, is capable of bringing progress in the relations between the two superpowers, which have diametrically opposed visions of the geopolitical structure of the world in the 21st century. In particular, during his visit to Warsaw, 6 on June 2017, the head of the White House decided not to refrain from the classic US aggressively destructive rhetoric towards Russia, and accused Moscow of “destabilizing the situation” in the “independent”. Syrian government forces and the LDNR People’s Militia Corps were classified as “hostile regimes”, posing a threat to the “democratic cell” of the world. Therefore, it is hardly worth expecting any “gaps”. Neither the number of handshakes between the leaders of the two leading powers, nor the degree of “theatricality” and hypocrisy, performed by the American side on the margins of the G20 summit, will affect the future alignment.

What is even more interesting, two days before the "promising" meeting in Hamburg, on July 5, 2017, US Secretary of State R. Tillerson unexpectedly announced that the American administration was considering the possibility of jointly forming unmanned zones in the airspace of the Syrian Arab Republic with the Russian Aerospace Forces. With a high degree of probability, Tillerson's statement is a prepared speech, the purpose of which may be an attempt to quickly "switch" Moscow's attention to the distribution and consolidation of airspace over the Syrian theater of operations between the parties to the conflict (it is logical that a detailed "debriefing" was on the G20 agenda ). Obviously, the end result of the US Secretary of State's statement was to ensure the complete security of the US ILC and MTR units, as well as the "moderate opposition" forces from possible missileaviation strikes from the tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, after all, the warning about the "take on escort" of all the aircraft of the OVS of the coalition along the Euphrates River by Russian air defense forces forced the Pentagon to significantly reduce the number of sorties, and also think three times before launching AIM-9X at Syrian fighters ...

At the same time, it is understood in Washington that the division of the airspace of Syria with the united coalition air forces to Moscow is absolutely disadvantageous, because sooner or later the tactical “boilers” around the ISIS enclaves will narrow down and the caliphate on the territory of the SAR will be suppressed, after which the main the American-backed Syrian opposition in the person of the VTS and other militant formations will become the enemy of the CAA and the VKS of Russia. And this means that Russia, in order to maintain its presence in Syria and regional influence in the Middle East, has yet to participate in a direct clash with militants supported by the Americans, and possibly the US Air Force. From the need to cover the Syrian army from the Western coalition to our air defenses, does not "wriggle out", otherwise the main ally of Russia will be methodically and efficiently destroyed by Tomahawks and deck aircraft of the US Navy, after which we can be politely (or maybe not quite) , ask to leave the territory of Syria, relying on the "legitimized democratic government", consisting of opposition fighters.

Now it is quite clear that the “division” of the airspace on American terms is the final and irreversible trampling of Moscow’s military-strategic interests in the Middle East into the mud, and hardly anyone would agree to such an insane step. There is a “fable” by Tillerson on the joint establishment of no-fly zones over Syria and an additional sub-goal, consisting in checking the Russian departments for the so-called “foreign policy” softness. Take a look, after the plans sounded by R. Tillerson on July 5, official Washington took a kind of pause and “shut up”. Our Foreign Ministry immediately sent to the United States to provide more detailed data on the scheme proposed by Tillerson, and then also sent the Russian “formula” of the settlement. And what about Washington? And Washington continued to be silent, pulling out the information “bricks” of our settlement strategy in Syria from our Foreign Ministry and other departments! A very indicative situation, in which Moscow, unfortunately, is again positioning itself as an interested and driven side, partially “revealing the cards” to our main opponent. No good, as a rule, it can not lead.

The combat vehicles of the M142 “HIMARS” high-precision multiple launch rocket systems rise along the cargo ramp into the cargo hold of the American strategic transport vehicle C-17 “Globemaster III”. The compartment with dimensions 26,82 x 5,49 x 3,76 m allows you to place 6 mobile M142 PUs with a dry weight (without ammunition) 82176 kg, which is almost 5 tons more than the calculated payload mass of 77,5 tons. For the transfer of such equipment to a distance of more than 4200 km, refueling is carried out in the air with the KC-135, KC-10A and A330MRTT tankers. Today, these systems are firing NURSami type M26A2, URS XM30 and ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles, but already in 2018, their front-end vehicle with a small radar signature M57A1 with a range of up to 450 km

The Americans clearly continue to follow their previously developed algorithm for gradually establishing control over the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic, with minor amendments to the rapidly changing operational-tactical situation. At the same time, a rather large stakes are being made on the mixed “bridgehead” erected in the Syrian At-Tanf, represented by the Marine Corps, the Special Operations Forces of the USA and the VTS opposition cell. In one of our works, we have already considered the deployment targets of M142 “HIMARS” high-precision multiple-launch rocket systems in the area, capable of firing 227-mm unguided rockets M26A1 / A2, corrected by M / XM30 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / M / XM140 / / / / / / / / / / / / / /. MGM-164 / 300B "ATACMS Block IA / IIA" tactical ballistic missiles with a range of XNUMX km. And the point here is not in the IG. “HIMARSy” are intended exclusively for pinpoint massive strikes on the units of the Syrian army immediately after the ISIS “leaves the game” and the VTS will face the Syrian armed forces face to face.

At the moment, the combat potential of the “coalition assault fist” under At-Tanf is not yet strong enough to resist the entire Syrian Arab Army, supported by our videoconferencing forces, but the situation can change dramatically in a few months. In particular, at the end of the G20 summit, Russian, American and Jordanian experts in Amman had agreed on a so-called “de-escalation memorandum”, which extends to the south-western parts of the ATS - Essaouida, Dera'a and Quneitra. The entry into force of the "truce" is expected in 00: 00 9 July. A quite adequate question arises: what kind of truce can we talk about when in the area of ​​Tafas, Tasila, and what's the big deal, is ISIL militants quietly operating in most parts of the Golan Heights? The Israel Defense Forces do not contribute to the "settling" of the threat of the caliphate, but only delivering blows at Syrian units in response to random artillery shells that have just flown in, which only aggravates the situation. What then is the purpose of this memorandum? We look at the map of the southwestern regions of Syria.

The yellow triangle marks the de-escalation settlement zone (agreed by three parties in the Jordanian capital Amman) in the south-west of the Syrian Arab Republic. You can also see the “Isthmus“ Um Hartein ”, which successfully“ smashes ”the southern and south-western groups of the armed Syrian opposition. The possible elimination of the "isthmus" can completely offset all the advantages of the Syrian Arab Army in recent years, and lead to the loss of several thousand Syrian soldiers in the "Suweyd boiler"

It is clearly seen here that, in addition to the IG enclave in the southern part of the Golan Heights, the vast 115-kilometer stretch from the cities of Samj and Bosra bordering Jordan to the city of Erna (northeast of the Golan Heights) is controlled by Syrian opposition forces that hold the Syrian-Jordan section of the border. This grouping of opposition forces is separated about the central southern group of SDS by the tactical "horn" of government troops, passing from the northern border of the governorate of Essaweida to the southern borders of the governorate of Damascus. This moment seriously impedes the operational and tactical capabilities of opposition forces before a future clash with Syrian government forces, even taking into account the fact that groups in the At-Tanfa and Deraa areas can act together (exchanging necessary military formations and material and technical support) due to the presence of friendly Jordanian boundaries.

Washington understands that the elimination of the above tactical "horns" of the CAA will require an offensive operation in the area of ​​the "Um Hartein isthmus" controlled by the Syrian army. The width of the "isthmus" from the town of Um Hartein BC Al-Hukuf reaches 20 km, for the breakthrough of which will require significant forces of the VTS, supported by units of the American army; because this section, which also has a military airbase, is littered with the most powerful fortifications and CAA strongholds. So they needed the above-described memorandum on de-escalating the “triangle” of “Suwayda-Deraa-Kuneitra”. It’s already known by July 9 evening that one thing will be clear about how long the operational silence will last in this sector: during this pseudo-surrogation, the States will have time to maximize the use of modern armed armaments in two separate southern groups of the Syrian opposition Tanfu to the big war.

As for the large-scale conflict between the SAA and the so-called "democratic forces", which may "flare up" immediately after IS leaves the "Big Game", taking into account the above memorandum, a very unpleasant situation is developing. In the very first days of clashes, the SDF, with the support of those very American "HIMARS", will be able to crush the defense of the "isthmus" of Um Hartein "in a matter of days, and if at this stage Moscow again gives weakness, refraining from fully covering the Syrian army from the tactical aviation of Western coalition, then we will have to contemplate on the pages of all news departments "Suweid cauldron", in which the thousands-strong grouping of the Southern Front of the Syrian Armed Forces, which will be shamelessly finished off by Hel Haavir from the air, is at risk.

At the moment, there are many indirect signs indicating the inevitability of a direct clash between the Russian contingent and the US Armed Forces in the SAR. The priority operational areas in which the Western coalition with the VTS plans to begin the process of "shifting" the Syrian army are also clearly visible. It remains only to stop blithely flirting with Washington, going on about all sorts of cleverly planned memoranda and proposals for the creation of fly-by zones, which quite unexpectedly for everyone can turn for the US Air Force into completely “flyable” frontiers for rocket launches on our and Syrian military infrastructure.

Information sources:
https://ria.ru/syria/20170707/1498091656.html
https://ria.ru/syria/20170707/1498096377.html
https://ria.ru/syria/20170706/1497991297.html
http://rbase.new-factoria.ru/missile/wobb/himars/himars.shtml
http://zzaharr.livejournal.com/128053.html

Comments

[Same lech]

At the moment, there are many indirect signs indicating the inevitability of a direct clash between the Russian contingent and the US Armed Forces in the SAR.

The Syrian crisis is gradually moving to the next stage.
Are you ready for this in the KREMLIN ... wait and see ... clearly one fight is inevitable ... but where and when will this happen questions some questions

[210ox]

There will be no battle there .. This is shown by the actions of our side after the destruction of our aircraft by the Turkish Air Force and in response to the Tomahawks strike ..

[Same lech]

This is shown by the actions of our side after the destruction of our aircraft by the Turkish Air Force and in response to the Tomahawks strike ..

And I think it will be ...
our artillery plowed the area where Peshkov was shot by Turkish militants ... already participating in the battle with the Turks ...
as for the TOMAHAWKS, our specialists were warned 2 hours before the strike on the Syrian airfield ... here is another case.
I think the battle with the Americans is already at the level of our special forces and American mercenaries on the battlefield ... and then the question is who will have the most nerves to resist the temptation to launch an air and missile strike at regular parts of adjacent sides.

[210ox]

Let it be according to yours. Time will judge.

Quote: The same Lech

This is shown by the actions of our side after the destruction of our aircraft by the Turkish Air Force and in response to the Tomahawks strike ..

And I think it will be ...
our artillery plowed the area where Peshkov was shot by Turkish militants ... already participating in the battle with the Turks ...
as for the TOMAHAWKS, our specialists were warned 2 hours before the strike on the Syrian airfield ... here is another case.
I think the battle with the Americans is already at the level of our special forces and American mercenaries on the battlefield ... and then the question is who will have the most nerves to resist the temptation to launch an air and missile strike at regular parts of adjacent sides.

[Tatyana]

I read the article - and was upset! There is no reason not to trust a military expert.
Somehow, from the Kremlin, the Russian Federation is really very "strange" fighting with the United States in the Syrian Arab Republic. It certainly won’t end in good.

[210ox]

Alexei. Another MIG was shot down in Syria. They fly over their country. And diplomats, including ours, are signing agreements with Washington. Here's the whole answer.

Quote: The same Lech

This is shown by the actions of our side after the destruction of our aircraft by the Turkish Air Force and in response to the Tomahawks strike ..

And I think it will be ...
our artillery plowed the area where Peshkov was shot by Turkish militants ... already participating in the battle with the Turks ...
as for the TOMAHAWKS, our specialists were warned 2 hours before the strike on the Syrian airfield ... here is another case.
I think the battle with the Americans is already at the level of our special forces and American mercenaries on the battlefield ... and then the question is who will have the most nerves to resist the temptation to launch an air and missile strike at regular parts of adjacent sides.

[Vend]

A very indicative situation, in which Moscow, unfortunately, is again positioning itself as an interested and driven party, partially “revealing the cards” to our main opponent.

The author, come on. How many times has it been proved by the President of Russia and his team that they are counting forward moves on 10. And they leave the west without salty slurping.

[Kent0001]

You yourself believe in it, or I pay you for such comments. Nothing over the past year. SIMPLY NOTHING, just draining our positions everywhere .. and buying American papers.

[Vend]

Quote: Kent0001

You yourself believe in it, or I pay you for such comments. Nothing over the past year. SIMPLY NOTHING, just draining our positions everywhere .. and buying American papers.

Not only do I believe, I see what is happening and how it is changing, and how Russia's position is strengthening. Could not restrain retailers with food prices, lifted sanctions on Turkish vegetables. Syria, we also merge? Arctic? Well, and so on, you can list a lot. Anyone who wants to see who does not want to even useless to show. The devastation is not in the closets, but in the heads.

[210ox]

For all my negativity to our economic "successes," I dare to assure you that you are wrong. I am simply comparing with the 90s what was happening then and what is now. Maybe we want right here and now?

Quote: Kent0001

You yourself believe in it, or I pay you for such comments. Nothing over the past year. SIMPLY NOTHING, just draining our positions everywhere .. and buying American papers.

[siberalt]

Next week, the final question of our position regarding the "unfriendly" steps of the United States will be decided. Annushka has already spilled oil.

[rotmistr60]

many indirect signs appeared indicating the inevitability of a direct clash between the Russian contingent and the US Armed Forces in the SAR

Signs may have appeared. But a possible armed conflict will not end with a short-term local conflict, but will become full-scale with all the ensuing consequences. The Americans understand this very well, but they probably believe that Russia will forgive them, as it has done more than once. In short, a test of our determination.

[Titsen]

Quote: rotmistr60

The Americans understand this very well, but they probably believe that Russia will forgive them, as it has done more than once. In short, a test of our determination.

And forgive - we are only concerned!

[Alone]

Yes, just that, we immediately become preoccupied

[Meshchersky]

Not the first time we knock with amers. But I don’t remember something when they beat us? Maybe I'm so forgetful?

[100502]

But what about the collapse of the USSR?

[Silinvv]

Do not blame the United States. We are to blame for the 80% collapse ourselves and our bl ... farsighted politicians like Yeltsin and Gorbachev. If there was opposition, then nowhere would we fall apart. At best, they would have switched to federalization but in a united Russia.

[andrew42]

"80% are ourselves to blame" - are you directly to blame? Maybe. You know better. Personally, I do not consider myself guilty. "bl ... farsighted politicians like Yeltsin and Gorbachev" - these are US puppets, used the first "blindly", and Gorbi is so completely conscious, plus a gang of shifters to the Politburo. There is no need to depict Zhvanetsky here, in our reflection in the mirror we no longer spit. Spit, tired.

[Prutkov]

There is still time to strengthen the AAA air defense. Not necessarily S-300. It will be enough and the old proven C75, C125. They have established themselves well in Yugoslavia, including when working on stealth. To exclude them being knocked out by the Tomahawks, you can act like the Americans - on these bases to indicate your presence.

[Walanin]

In Shairat, a presence was indicated. Before the strike, they fled quickly and silently, without warning the Syrian sidekicks.

[region58]

The width of the "isthmus" from the city of Um Hartain to n.a. Al-Khuquf reaches 20 km

It seems that there is already no isthmus there.

[kaschey]

There are two options, bad and very bad.
The author of the article is well done, he understands perfectly well but does not agree on why a truce was concluded.
It’s nothing personal, just the “MFA” business, under the guise of supposedly noble motives (such as a better peace than war) to the detriment of the SAA and our military, how many such truces were there?

[Kent0001]

Trump supported congressional sanctions. The hypocrisy of these ugly people rolls over. We are slowly profounding Syria. Question: Why? Recently, we have been pushed into a war, which will simply ruin us, that's all. As for the “cunning plan”, it doesn’t exist, and in general it is only necessary to talk with freaks from the USA from a position of strength, but we have blah blah blah.

[Walanin]

To talk from a position of strength, you must have this strength.

[cormorant]

We are slowly profounding Syria.

Too early to draw conclusions. So far, judging by the ISIS maps, they are being crushed. Further they will deal with the rebels. No panic.

[kig]

Despite the very productive result of the first expanded meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump - This is not the first time I have been reading this in various sources, but no one has explained what result was achieved at the landmark meeting of the two presidents. And here, after applause and applause, this is not about Russia, which this meeting supposedly helped with something, but about Syria. Where are we and where is that Syria? Are we too keen on helping obscure friends for an hour? Maybe it's time to switch to internal affairs?

[Powerstep step]

“That’s why the pike is at sea so that crucian carp wouldn’t doze off,” I think our military will take into account, when solving the Syrian issue, the NATO bacchanalia at the borders of Russia, somehow.

[COJIDAT]

The creation of "useless zones" must be replaced by the creation of outposts from a network of bases with the RF Armed Forces contingent.

[andrew42]

Then, instead of the “USA against the SAR Army” attacks, we get the format “opposition fighters against Russian bases,” that is, the “Afghan” format. This is not an option, this is a trap. In addition to amplification / training / equipment /
financing of the Syrian armed forces itself - no other way out. but in general there are problems in green candy wrappers - while Miracle-Yudo is using his finger to strike, the enemy will grow as many as necessary, as many goals.

[andrew42]

Teach the Syrians. Get on the technique. Crews under the Syrian flag also can not be avoided. By analogy with Vietnam. And to bring down the American invaders in Syria anyway have to. With these insolent fights can not be avoided. The main thing is that under someone else's flag. So that the "small but proud Syria" Czechoslovakia. Otherwise, it’s easier for Assad to bring them to them, and for the handle of the ISIS in the presidential palace in Damascus. We got into a fight - there is nothing to whine.

[Turist1996]

Something doubts take me when affirming that our Foreign Ministry just mercifully “merges” Amers with their intentions, supposedly proposing their “plans” ... Not about our Foreign Ministry these tales - for the last ten years I have not noticed idiocy in this office even in smallness ..

[1536]

With such a dual policy, you can fly so that no VKS will help.

[Egorovich]

Another science-fiction writer dug up. American Wishlist more than once in Syria lowered below the sewer. In At-Tanfa, the mattresses are mostly Bedouins and deserters of the Syrian army. The composition is very strong, with such just solving global issues. And take an adviser author of the article. Not stupidly composing.

[askme]

This is crazy analysis. The reality is that this truce in the South-West of Syria is beneficial for the SAA, it is in vital need of it. The fact is that now in these weeks the main question of the entire current stage of the military campaign is being decided: the question of who will control the gas and oil fields of central and eastern Syria. At the moment, Americans on the Syrian-Jordanian border are cut off from them. And at the moment, only the Kurds have operational capabilities to attack these fields after the capture of Raqqa. And only a massive transfer of SAA units from the ceasefire areas in southern Syria can prevent such a development of events by a blow that finally cuts off the Kurds from the oil and gas fields north of Palmyra, where they were torn recently.

In addition, after the capture of Raqqa by the Kurds, ISIS concentrated a powerful shock fist near Akkerbat, which also needs to be done. And here also need reinforcements from the South.

About the tigers of the 5th corps advancing on Deir ez-Zor and I’m not saying that they need reinforcements like air. And this is also the largest oil and gas reserves of Syria.

The Americans are now occupying a completely deserted area devoid of minerals - camel spines - all of their wealth there.

Guys, when you look at plans (and not real maps of Syria - physical, minerals) - you see absolutely nothing. You see a fig and smack nonsense in the "analyzes".

So, the situation now is such that it was as a result of the armistice that the SAA gained the opportunity to regroup its forces, to seriously strengthen the power of its groups in the Palmyra (Akkerbat) region and the shock groups striving for Deir ez-Zor to completely take control of the main gas and oil wealth Syria with the destruction of ISIS there. This is the key to strategic success in the near future. And a truce in southern Syria is needed as the air of CAA. Because in the South a very dangerous situation was created with the participation of Israel as well, which could potentially bury the offensive in the Palmyra region and on Deir ez-Zor.

It is through this that everyone needs to look at the map and the work of our military and diplomats in Syria in recent weeks ...

Syria needs oil and gas for Syria as air, without them it will not be able to fight, there will be nothing good to arm itself with. Syria’s oil and gas is money to buy weapons for its army. And only after receiving this resource it makes sense to talk about where there are still some terrorists, where the Americans muddied the water with their rockets, where the Turks indulge, what the Kurds are doing. All these problems are now secondary in comparison with the control of central and eastern Syria with their oil and gas reserves, the destruction of ISIS there. The rest is after! And here Russia has won. Won - time. Won the most important strategic prerequisite for the victory of the SAA.

In the future, to measure the merits of the Yankees, with the Turks, with the Kurds, the SAA will require large-scale rearmament. Billions of dollars. Syria's oil and gas is their source ...