Chronology of "Minsk 2.0": the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing a "breakthrough"
GEOPOLITICAL ASSISTANCE OF GROWTH OF KIEV'S AGGRESSION ON THE DONBAS
Not even two weeks had passed since the administration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump, the rather intractable and straightforward American regime was headed, as the operational and tactical situation at the borders of Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics turned from tense to frankly escalating. As it became known from open information sources of the DPR MO with confirmation from the residents of Donetsk, the evening of D. Trump's inauguration (January 20 2017) was marked by the beginning of the use of the MLRS “Grad” by the Ukrainian military formations: the Putilovka area, which was located at BM-21, was fired a couple of kilometers from the densely populated Kievsky district of Donetsk. At that time, obviously, apart from the guys standing on the front end, absolutely no one gave special significance to the incident. At the same time, the Grads in the vicinity of the capital of the republic had not used a very long period of time up to this point, which was already a rather ominous omen. From this day on, the more or less stable situation on the contact line in the Donbas went downhill, and soon reached the turn of a new large-scale escalation of the conflict.
In recent weeks, before the new outbreak of the escalation of the conflict in the Donbass, the command of the APU is pushing the most powerful types of barreled self-propelled artillery to the line of contact. One of them is the 203-mm long-range self-propelled artillery 2C7 "Peony" ("Object-216"). On arms of the Ukrainian military formations consists from 82 to 87 similar SAU
The focus of the new American administration on domestic economic and social issues, the concept of countering Iran and China, as well as Trump’s harsh statements about the counterproductiveness of the North Atlantic Alliance led to serious ideological differences within NATO. The heads and other representatives of the security and foreign affairs agencies of the main European bloc member states expressed extreme dissatisfaction and concern over such sentiment in the entourage of the new US president, pointing to the threat of losing defenses from Moscow’s fictional aggression in Eastern Europe. As a result, the thoughtless support of the Nazi Ukrainian regime in its barbaric actions against the people of Donbass was continued by the UK and Germany with even greater force, but most of all by countries such as Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Through the international military supplies from these NATO member countries, Kiev receives a rifle weapon (including large-caliber machine guns and rifles of European and American production), electronic intelligence equipment, EW systems, etc. And with the States themselves, not everything is clear: despite the new leadership in the White House and the Pentagon, the company of the 173 of the US Airborne Brigade and the company of the 1 Battalion of the 69 Tank Regiment continue to remain on Estonian territory on a rotational basis.
Relying on temporary confusion in the relations between the “European camp” of NATO and its overseas counterparts, as well as the lack of effective dialogue between Russia and the United States, illegally elected to the post of “independent” Poroshenko fully relies on support from Western Europe and forces the conflict to escalate to Donbass. From about 10 to 25 in January of 2017, there was a significant intensification of the transfer of ammunition kits for batteries of cannon and rocket artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine deployed near the contact line between Novorossia and Ukraine: all of the large echelons with hundreds of thousands of large-scale trains that had been flown and unloaded between Ukraine and Ukraine were delivered and unloaded with some thousands of people, with a number of thousands of people, and they were delivered and unloaded to the line of contact between Novorossia and Ukraine. including reactive. The degree of tension at this time was growing. And since January 16, there was an increased activity of Ukrainian large-caliber barreled artillery in the Debaltsevsk, Donetsk and Novoazovsk operational areas. Moreover, the junta’s armored and infantry units went into action, the purpose of which was to conduct reconnaissance in force, as well as the psychological and military-tactical weakening of the fortified lines of the front lines of the LDNR People’s Militia; but this attempt ended for Kiev in complete failure.
THE TACTICS OF THE GENOCIDE OF THE RUSSIAN POPULATION OF THE DONBASS BY THE PARTY
The material from the Donetsk correspondent on the consequences of the air blast "Point-U" in the area of the Motel. In the event that Minsk-2 did not take place as a bitter fact for each family of the occupied and liberated parts of Donbass from Kiev, units of the Armed Forces of the DPR would have pushed Ukrainian militants back to the borders of the former Donetsk and Lugansk regions, thanks to which the possibility of shelling peaceful cities republics for frantic dill would be gone
Radically, the tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine changed on the morning of January 29, 2017. After a rather long morning artillery preparation from Grad and self-propelled guns from positions in the western part of Avdeevka at the Yasinovatsky checkpoint and Verkhnekalmius filter station, infantry units of the Armed Forces supported by Avdeevka were supported tanks and BMP, as well as covered by mortar and artillery fire. Ukrainian militants, in fact coming immediately from 3 OH (Krutaya Balka, Avdeevka and Spartak), tried to “crush” strongholds at the YaPB and immediately occupy the western outskirts of the DPR capital. To reduce the density and intensity of the return fire of the artillery and anti-tank "bones" of the Donetsk militias, Ukrainian military units tried to distract them also in the Gorlovsky and Krasnogorovsky directions: units of the 72nd mechanized brigade, 55th separate artillery brigade (OABr), 128 The 57st OGPBr, as well as the 58th and 20th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigades (OMBB), at the same time as they attempted to break through to the YaBP, were harassing fire from positions in Dzerzhinsk, Kamenka and Krasnogorovka. But as we noted in our previous work on the Donbass, any strategy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces to attack various sections of the Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration is doomed to failure. This attempt at a frontal “breakthrough” was no exception: more than 3 people were killed and 1 dozen people wounded. Serious losses were among the personnel of the Armed Forces of the DPR; Nevertheless, the Yasinovat fortified area remained intact. Unfortunately, it has not yet been possible to regain full control over the Almaz-2 and Almaz-XNUMX strongholds, but this is only a matter of time.
After the expected unsuccessful attempt to “break through” the junta in the outskirts of Donetsk in the morning of January 29, the artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces temporarily reduced the intensity of shelling, and the battered assault platoon of Ukrainian insurgents, retreating to Avdiivka, fell under a powerful defensive fire of Pravosek formations. Thanks to the coordinated actions of the artillerymen of the VSN, precise counterbattery fire managed to suppress the firing points of the “Hyacinth-B” howitzers 3.
By the evening of January 29, the Armed Forces of Ukraine switched to the DPR Southern Front. The most active was the Mariupol ON, where the 36-I separate brigade of the Marines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with the support of PS and Azov, attempted an offensive in the new Azov direction in the area of the settlement. Comintern and strategic height "Daring", with which the soldiers of the 9-th Mariupol-Khingansky separate motorized rifle regiment of the 1-th AK NM DPR control the settlements of Water, Lebedinsky, as well as the eastern outskirts of Talakivka, Sartana and Mariupol. The 120-mm mortar batteries, D-30 howitzers and 2-3 "Acacia" self-propelled guns, whose positions are located under Sartana and Gnutovo, provided fire support to the upcoming formations. Taking control of "Daring" is crucial for ukrov, because it makes it possible to maintain fire control over most of the settlements of the Novoazovskiy district, including Zaichenko, Dzerzhinskoye, Sakhanka and Bezmennoe, and also to fire at them directly from tank guns and anti-tank guns MT -12 "Rapier." For the DPR NM Army Corps, the loss of “Daring” means the loss of all tactical advantages on the eastern approaches to Mariupol, which is why it is often called the “Keys of Mariupol”. An attempt of her capture by the Marines of the 36 Brigade again ended in failure and large losses among the personnel.
And on the same evening, January 29, a section of the North-Western Front in the Donetsk region literally blew up the most powerful artillery duel in the last 2 year between units of the DPR army and Ukrainian military formations. The top of the Ukropovsky General Staff gave a criminal order to open dense fire on fortified areas and residential quarters of Donetsk from all types of barreled and rocket artillery. On the outskirts of the capital of the republic flew full "packages" of unguided rockets of the Grad and Uragan MLRS. The gunners of the Armed Forces of the DPR, in turn, for the first time in more than a year and a half, received a dodge response to a decent response with similar types of weapons. After 18: 00 in the Avdeev direction, a powerful counterbattery confrontation began. The first goal of Kiev was to inflict the maximum possible damage to the Donetsk filter station (DFS) and the Verkhni Kalmius filter station. As a “minimum program”, there was a disruption in the power supply of these objects in order to deprive the people of Donetsk of drinking water, and as a “maximum program” it was planned to destroy their chlorine storage tanks for extensive environmental contamination. As a result, the "minimum" junta still managed to implement, but only for a while.
By January 30, a persistent tendency to shift the zone of the fall of the ukrov shells from the outskirts of Donetsk to the densely populated areas of the city began to be seen. In 9: 00, the first information appeared regarding the destruction of the infrastructure of Donetsk as a result of evening and night shelling: 2 boiler rooms, a school, and 6 apartment buildings in Kuybyshevsky and Kiev districts, as well as in Makeyevka were damaged. But it was only a shooting range for the residential area, a real nightmare began on January 30, around 14: 00. The calculations of the Ukrainian barreled artillery opened aimed fire on the infrastructure of Putilovka, the Kuibyshev district and Yakovlevka. On the cameras of their smartphones, residents recorded a lot of video evidence of the criminal actions of the Supreme Court of Ukraine in relation to the population of Donbass and the Armed Forces of the DPR. Such a pace the direction of shelling artillery shelling continued until the morning of February 1. It was then that the massive use by the Ukrainian militants of the Grad MLRS in all of the above-mentioned districts of Donetsk began. The result of the shelling was damage to the 3 th electrical supply of the 35-kV power lines and the stoppage of the Verkhnekalmiussky filter station, and civilian casualties also began. So in Makeyevka, a direct hit by a Ukrainian artillery shell in a private house, an elderly woman was killed. After a daily shelling of Donetsk from “Gradov” and all types of barrel large-caliber, in the late evening of February 2, this system was added to the BM-27 “Uragan” multiple launch rocket systems, which were used in the Kievsky district and in the Motel area.
"MOTOR PHENOMENON": "POINT-U" OR "URAGAN"?
Arriving at 2 Motel on February 2017 of the year: an explosion of similar power can cause nothing more than a half-ton high-explosive fragmentation warhead 9H123F of an operational-tactical ballistic missile 9М79-1 "Tochka-U". Option with NURS MLRS "Uragan" is simply inappropriate here.
Regarding the type of ammunition that exploded in the area of the Motel in 21: 40, to this day there are several versions. Official - hit 220-mm unguided missile MLRS "Uragan." The fact that it was a rocket of the 9K57 “Hurricane” complex, is spoken by almost all DPR media outlets. For this type of MLRS, more than 6 NURS types have been developed. Theoretically, a fairly powerful explosion could have occurred as a result of the detonation of an 100-kilogram warhead 9H128F of a standard Uragan rocket with the index 9М27Ф; it could also be a projectile with an incendiary head of the 9М27С. But the video footage provided by two cameras from different districts of Donetsk indicates the use of a completely different type of projectile, to be more objective “Point-U”: in the night sky you can see a powerful flash that illuminates almost the entire camera sector, the glow goes up to 3 and all this is taken from a distance of more than 10 km. If we evaluate this explosion even from a purely physical point of view, it is much more powerful than those observed when the shells of the Hurricane system fall. So the most plausible version is precisely the operational-tactical ballistic missile 9М79-1 of the Tochka-U complex.
The missile is equipped with a high-explosive fragmentation warhead 9H123F mass 482 kg (explosive mass TG-20 reaches 162,5 kg), which gives such a powerful explosion. But where is the huge crater near the Motel? That's right, he is simply not there, since the initiation of the warhead took place at a considerable height above the surface. The warhead has a non-contact fuse 9E118, represented by a radio altimeter and a laser sensor. The laser sensor allows initiating warheads at an altitude of 20 meters to cause maximum damage to objects on the surface due to a larger area of fragmentation. In the same turn, the severity of the crater (crater) at the undermining of the combat “equipment” at a certain height will be much less than at contact detonation. There is another important technological nuance.
At the time of the arrival of Tochka-U, the whole of Donetsk was already covered with a layer of medium-thick snow, including in the Motel area. This is clearly evidenced by the video taken by the quadcopter the next morning. We turn to the principle of operation of the Tochka laser fuse. The fuse is represented by a laser beam emitter and a receiver of its spot on the earth's surface. These optoelectronic sensors are equipped with standard Zenith camera lenses. The sensitivity of the receiving sensor makes it possible to recognize a laser spot at a distance of 9 to 21 m on ordinary types of surface (soil, asphalt or reinforced concrete), after which an instant command is given to detonate the warhead. As seen in the morning video drone in the Motel area, the coefficient of diffuse reflectivity (albedo) of the road in this section does not exceed 18-20%, but the albedo of snow-covered soil areas is 90-95%, which is 4,5 times more. Such a spot can be detected by the 9E118 receiving sensor at a height of up to 75-80. Naturally, the explosion occurred at about this height: there is no crater and signs of a powerful air explosion, which resulted in huge trees uprooted, cars turned inside out and “dismantled” to the smallest detail, etc. This explosion of "Point-U" can be considered a reduced copy of the explosion of the Tunguska meteorite; the crater from the latter was also absent. This type of explosion is also clearly evidenced by the damage to house No. 19 on the street. Elevatornaya, as well as the completely destroyed building No. 2 and house No. 8 on the street. Tokmakskaya (houses next to the ring). At the same time, the tiles of all the houses were broken by the blast wave that came from above.
And this is a similar (almost identical) explosion of OTBR “Tochka-U”, recorded in Donetsk on 8 in February of 2015.
Some are actively promoting the version in accordance with which the “Point-U” air explosion occurred at the moment of interception by anti-aircraft missile systems of the Armed Forces of the DPR. This version can be considered, since at the beginning of February, the 2015 of the year already had a successful interception of the Ukrainian OTBR 9М79-1 by the anti-aircraft missile system of the Armed Forces of the LC, but it cannot be confirmed, as there is no video on the two cameras above in different districts of Donetsk no previous air flare, speaking about the defeat of the “Point” by anti-aircraft guided missiles at an altitude of 500 and more than meters. In the same area, ground flashes were noticed just a couple of seconds before the arrival of “Point-U”, it is obvious that these were the “Hurricanes” that also attacked the motel area, but for unknown reasons, the places of their fall with fragments of shells are shown were not.
Simultaneously with the massive artillery preparation of the SA, Grads, Hurricanes and Tochka-U for the positions of the defenders of Novorossia and the peaceful population of Donetsk, the Panzer Company of the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced from the western outskirts of Krasnogorovka and Marinka batteries, attempted to "knock out" Donetsk units NM NMD from the extreme strongholds of the Petrovsky district. During the 2-3 hours, the local ukrov attack was successfully stopped by the DPR gunners. After the most powerful response from the SA and the Grads of the DPR Armed Forces, the formation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, located in the vicinity of Avdiivka, stopped using the Hurricanes, but the Grads, mortars and the SA worked deep into the night. At night, the battles shifted from the Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration to Debaltsevo, Telmanov and Novoazovskoe operational directions. After the chaotic low-intensity small arms and mortar and artillery "duels" on the outskirts of the Petrovsky district of Donetsk, near the YaBP and south of Svetlodarsk, observed during the day and evening of February 3, stable operational silence was established in Donetsk.
THE NEXT MEETING OF THE CONTACT GROUP WITHIN THE “MINSK 2.0” FRAMEWORK IS A HELPFUL “GAME” BEARING A CATASTROPHE IN THE EARTH OF THE REPUBLIC. AMERICAN GLOBAL HOWS CONTINUES TO BE IN KYIV IN THE FRAMEWORK OF PLANNING OPERATIONS FOR DONBASS DESTRUCTION AND DNI ARMY DESTRUCTION
The February meeting of the contact group within the framework of the Minsk agreements gave absolutely no results: the empty-handed agreement on the withdrawal of heavy weapons at first quickly turned into a refusal of Kiev from these obligations, and then into the launch of even more operational militarization and regrouping its units into a purely offensive configuration . The meeting of the UN Security Council ended for Kiev to no avail, but the main point that interested us was the position and rhetoric of 1 th the United States Permanent Representative to the UN Nikki Haley, which Mr. Trump and the Senate approved in 29 position on January 24. This moment became the first main indicator of the position of the new American regime towards the Russian Federation immediately after D. Trump came to power. We heard the long-fledged and schizophrenic accusations of Moscow in the "occupation of the Crimea", and again put before the fact of the extension of sanctions for an indefinite period. From this we conclude: to expect a constructive, let alone a breakthrough in the format of Russian-American relations is absolutely not worth it. Of course, such a noticeable support of the Kiev regime, as during the Obama presidency, will no longer exist, but nobody will restrain the inadequate impulses of the unpredictable “Square” either; Moreover, London, Warsaw and the Baltics are also “presents” in the form of various weapons and equipment to be thrown up. In such conditions, Poroshenko and his entourage have already prepared a very favorable ground for the continuation of aggression against the independent republics of Donbass and destabilization of the situation on the border with the Russian Federation.
The scale of the planned GS of the Armed Forces of Ukraine offensive operations to seize the territories of LDNR became known already by February 6 thanks to the posts of the famous pro-Russian Ukrainian public figure and member of the “Party of Regions” Alexei Zhuravko. The local population of the Kherson region prepared and transferred to it for dissemination information material on the transfer to the Mariupol operational direction of the main structure of the 57-th motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stationed in Chaplynka. On the outskirts of this settlement (in the direction of Melitopol - Mariupol) a column of armored vehicles and military military vehicles was formed in the amount of more than 100 units. At the same time, the situation was characteristic of the late spring of 2014: a very solid company of protesting relatives was organized as soon as possible, who blocked the departures from Chaplynka and were able to temporarily stop the convoy, but only before the arrival of police squads and regional units of the SBU. Despite the fact that some Ukrainians show frank discontent with what is happening, they do not succeed in creating real militia units: after the 3 day of the 57 brigade, they were already under Mariupol.
It is worth noting that the distribution of the brigade to positions in the vicinity of the city was carried out using bypass roads to hide the types and amount of the transferred equipment from the population of the city and the current military intelligence of the DPR. This fact also speaks of the preparation of a major offensive operation on the new Azov IT. At the same time, the Azov regiment is building up an armored and infantry grouping in Mariupol and on its outskirts into the open: the columns follow right along the central streets of the Right Bank (23 and Zhovtnevy districts) to the Left Bank (Ordzhonikidze and East districts). Only last week, the ranks of the nationalist battalion in sector “M” were replenished with about 8 BTR-8, 3 BTR-3E (equipped with 30-mm automatic cannons) and about 150 - 200 fighters: a part arrived at the military base in the captured 62-th school Park "Veselka", the rest was sent to the village. Shyrokyne, Sopino, Water, etc. Now let's take a closer look at the quantitative and technical composition of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, deployed in the environs of Mariupol, taking into account the arrived 57 motorized infantry brigade.
Night transfer of light wheel armored vehicles of the Nazi regiment "Azov" to the Comintern operational direction
At the present moment there are: 57-I motorized infantry brigade, 36-I separate brigade of marines, parts of 56-i separate motorized infantry brigade, nationalist regiment "Azov", 40-i separate motorized infantry battalion "Krivbas", as well as "Right Sector" and Moreover, in the city there are other unknown formations in the number of still 13 battalion groups. The total number of all these militias in the Mariupol HE reaches approximately 18300 people. The armored fleet includes: 120-150 T-64BV and T-72B tanks, about 600 wheeled and tracked combat armored vehicles (BBM), up to 220 cannon artillery guns, mortars and self-propelled guns, about 40 BM RSO "Grad" chimneys over 320 anti-tank weapons (ATGM, LNG and RPG) and up to 382 units of air defense systems, including anti-aircraft weapons, MANPADS and anti-aircraft machine guns mounted on armored vehicles. This is about 2 times more than the New Azov group in the 9-th Mariupol-Khingan separate SMEs and other divisions of NM DNR, whose area of responsibility is the Mariupol direction. Apparently, ukry trying to bring this ratio to 3: 1 or 4: 1, to make another attempt to "breakthrough" in the area of Leninsky, Cominternovo and the height of "Daring". And therefore, in the coming days, it may be necessary to attract equipment from the operational reserve to stop the future “breakthrough”.
Defense of the heights of "Daring". A strategically important position is located about 10 km from the eastern outskirts of Mariupol
As an offensive echelon in BC Lebedinskoe and Vodyanoe APU deployed 5 tank companies T-64BV in the amount of 50 MBT and several dozen armored vehicles. Artillery support in the form of D-30 howitzer batteries, Gvozdika and Akatsiya self-propelled guns, as well as Gradz batteries for MLRS deployed on Betonka and near the pigsty (Sartana), in the villages of Mirny, Talakivka, Vinogradnoye, Pavlopol and Old Crimea . All this equipment is based in the immediate vicinity of the infrastructure of the settlements, so the DPR gunners have the opportunity to conduct counter battery fire on a very limited list of Ukrainian artillery installations: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are covered with civilians. The return fire of the militia is carried out mainly on the advanced positions of the Ukrainian artillery, located in the fields east of Sartana, Kalinovka and Talakovka, as well as on the armored units of the junta.
To be continued ...
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