Antique Chinese Donald Trump adventure
Not yet officially taking office as president, Donald Trump provoked an aggravation of relations with a number of countries. The brunt of the new administration came in Beijing. When questioning the “one China” principle, Trump and his entourage are at risk of achieving the opposite result - not “restraining” the Middle Kingdom, but weakening the United States itself.
China as the main enemy
There is a special attitude to the elected president of the United States Donald Trump in Russia. For more than a year, the citizens of the country have been drawing the cheap popular image of this man, who, he says, is just waiting to unfold Washington’s foreign policy 180 degrees, stop interfering in the affairs of the whole world and, of course, making friends with Moscow. The motives of the customers of this myth are easy to understand: in the conditions of a deepening crisis, it was necessary, firstly, to divert the attention of the population from the really pressing problems, and secondly, to give them hope for the long-awaited completion of economic difficulties.
The very first steps of Trump after being elected president of a stone on stone were not left from the idealized picture. Most of the already appointed members of the administration are ultra-conservatives, or, in everyday life, “hawks”. For example, the future head of the CIA, Mike Pompeo, recently announced an agreement with Iran: “I look forward to canceling this destructive deal with the world's largest sponsor of terrorism.”
Comments, as they say, are superfluous. However, Protrapov's panegyrics in the Russian media did not diminish. This stupid (another definition is difficult to pick up) persistence can end up seriously spoiling Moscow’s relations with its closest allies. Primarily with China.
In the electoral rhetoric of Trump, Beijing held a special place. Celestial assigned the role of the main enemy responsible for the problems of the United States. Under the charges were threats. The Republican candidate promised to introduce a 45-percent duty on all Chinese imports, to increase the grouping of US naval forces in the Asia-Pacific region and fight the "adventurism of the PRC" around the world.
With the end of the campaign, the threats did not stop. The day before the election, the influential American magazine Foreign Policy published an article entitled The World through Force in Asia and the Pacific. Its authors are Trump's advisers Alexander Gray and Peter Navarro. They are reportedly entrusted with the development of a new course in Sino-US relations. The content of this course is stated in the article very clearly. The former administrations, the advisers point out, made concessions, allowing China to reach its current power. Now this policy is proposed to be revised. In particular, by building up the already powerful grouping of the US Navy in the Pacific. Another point is to increase support for Taiwan, including through the conclusion of a “comprehensive deal” on deliveries weapons. "The United States remains the guarantor of the liberal order in Asia," concludes Gray and Navarro.
The last of this couple is known, among other things, for extremely tendentious books on the PRC. Their names speak for themselves: “Death from China”, “Crouching Tiger: What Chinese Militarism Means for the World”, “China's Coming Wars”. These poorly crafted crafts, admiration for which Trump has already expressed, now form the basis of Washington’s foreign policy. We add that the most likely assistant state secretary in charge of the “Chinese direction” is John Bolton. This hardliner against China, Russia, Iran and other “rogue states” openly calls for an escalation of tension around the PRC - up to the recognition of Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Provocation and blackmail
Donald Trump's inauguration is scheduled for January 20, but anti-Chinese attacks began long before this date. December 2 had a telephone conversation between the President-elect and the head of Taiwan, Tsai Invan. According to the Taiwanese side, the leaders discussed cooperation in the field of economy and defense. The provocative nature of the event is obvious. Recall that in the 1949 year, after the defeat in the Civil War, Chiang Kai-shek fled to the island with supporters. The United States declared Taiwan its "unsinkable aircraft carrier" and turned it into a springboard against China.
The situation changed at the beginning of 1970, when Washington, tired of waiting for the fall of the “communist regime,” finally recognized the government in Beijing. Despite continued assistance to Taiwan, the US authorities declared adherence to the “one-China” principle, closed their embassy on the island and ceased direct contacts with local leadership. The last telephone conversation of the President of the United States (at that time Jimmy Carter held this post) with the head of the Taiwanese administration took place in the distant 1979 year.
That is why Beijing accepted the current conversation as a challenge. All the more frank that the Democratic Progressive Party, from which Cai Inven is elected, is aimed at the unconditional independence of the island. Trump and his entourage tried to give the provocation maximum scope. The new president not only reported on the conversation in his Twitter account, but also called his interlocutor "President of Taiwan." No doubt knowing how painful this would be in Beijing.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry in response issued a harsh representation of the United States. Gen Shuang, the official ministry spokesman, explained this by saying that "there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is an integral part of it, and the PRC government is the only legitimate government representing China."
However, in Washington and did not think to apologize. Trump reacted disproportionately aggressively to a more than legitimate and cautious remark. “Did China ask us whether it is good to devalue their currency (so that our companies find it harder to compete), impose high taxes on our goods coming to them in the country (the United States does not charge taxes from them), or build a large-scale military complex in the middle of South China seas? I don't think so, ”he tweeted. And in an interview with Fox News, Trump stated that he would not tolerate instructions from Beijing, and expressed bewilderment why the United States "should be tied to the policy of a united China."
Contrary to initial assumptions, the call to Tsai Inwen did not come as a surprise to Trump. As the Washington Post reported, their conversation was a carefully planned and deliberately provocative operation designed to shape the new administration’s policy toward China. Moreover, it turned out that Trump’s contact list was compiled even before he won the election and the head of Taiwan was at an early stage.
That he perfectly understood the consequences of his step, the newly elected president himself confessed in the end. According to him, he is ready to recognize the policy of "united China", but only after serious concessions from the PRC. This blackmail burned businessman in Beijing rejected. “National sovereignty and territorial integrity are not a bargaining chip,” recalled Chinese ambassador to the US, Qu Tiankai.
Power frightening washington
Explaining the reasons for the anti-Chinese reversal, most commentators use a ready-made version of Trump himself and his team. The new administration is supposedly deeply concerned about the revival of American industry, and therefore seeks to transfer production back to the US and, by protectionist measures, protect the country from cheap Chinese imports. Exaggerate the value of this propaganda cliché should not be. American corporations themselves will not want to return production facilities to their homeland out of fear of ruin: American workers simply will not accept low-paid jobs. The Chinese edition of the Global Times has calculated how much Apple’s cheapest iPhone will cost if all its components are created in the United States - 2 thousands of dollars. In this case, the corporation will not compete with Asian manufacturers.
Trump will not go to limit the influence of financial and speculative capital in favor of industrial. First of all, because it is absurd to separate these concepts in the USA. At the beginning of the last century, industrial capital merged with financial capital, creating monster corporations. This is confirmed by the steps of the president himself: he appointed not the mythical production workers, but experienced “wolves” from Wall Street to leading economic positions. Stephen Mnuchin, former vice-president of the Goldman Sachs investment bank, was nominated to the finance ministers. Another well-known financier Wilbur Ross was nominated for the post of Minister of Commerce.
The much more likely motive for the attack on the PRC is Beijing's tremendous success, threatening American hegemony. Becoming the second economic power of the world (and in many respects having achieved superiority), China overstepped its own borders. Before our eyes, the Celestial Empire is turning into the center of a new global alliance based on values, fundamentally different from the notorious Pax Americana. “All countries are equal members of the international community. Big, strong and rich should not intimidate the small, weak and poor ”- so recently expressed the main idea of this alternative world order, PRC Chairman Xi Jinping.
Washington has a reason to sound the alarm. The APEC summit held in November in Lima (Peru) was accompanied by semi-official talks between Mexico, Peru, Chile, New Zealand and a number of other countries. They decided on the fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. As you know, Trump has promised to withdraw from the agreement. However, representatives of these countries refused to bury the economic union, having decided to invite China into it. As is well known, Washington strongly opposed this, seeing in the alliance a tool for putting pressure on Beijing.
Now the Trans-Pacific Partnership may merge with another free trade zone - the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership (EPEC), which in the future will unite the ASEAN countries, China and a number of other states. The main supporter of the conclusion of the agreement on the CEA is Beijing. The negotiations that began in 2012 with variable success, but now the process can be given a serious push.
This is quite understandable. China is ready to contribute to the economic development of other countries, without at the same time linking aid to the conditions of enslavement, as the United States is used to doing. In January-October of last year alone, China’s investments abroad amounted to 146 billions of dollars - by 53 more percent than in the same period last year. In the next five years, Beijing is going to invest nearly a trillion dollars.
An important event was the inclusion of the yuan in the list of reserve currencies. Now the central banks of all countries should have a portion of the savings in this currency. The activity of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is developing, which has created serious competition for the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
But the main irritants for the United States remain the strategy “One Belt - One Way” and the successes achieved in its implementation. In 2016, the port of Gwadar opened - a key point of the Sino-Pakistani economic corridor. The railway junction Urumqi in western China has undergone a comprehensive modernization. From November, international cargo flights to Central Asia and Europe depart from here daily. The construction of a Lao-Chinese railway over 400 kilometers in length began. Next year, China will host a summit of states-participants of the strategy. Leaders of three dozen states have already confirmed their arrival. The US attitude to China’s plans is well reflected in an article in the magazine National Interest. It states that “One Belt - One Way” is the main threat to world order and Western management in the 21st century. ”
Afraid of losing their monopoly on political and economic dominance, American ruling circles are worsening relations with China. Beijing is openly threatened by the strengthening of the group in the South China Sea. Commander of the pacific fleet USA Harry Harris announced in mid-December "readiness to confront China" in the region. In the near future, the visit of the head of Taiwan, Cai Yingwen, to Washington is expected, which will become another undisguised provocation. In addition to this, China has been confronted with a swarm of anti-dumping investigations initiated by the United States, Japan, and the EU.
The Chinese authorities react to hostile attacks firmly, without hysteria. In the event of economic pressure from the United States in Beijing promise to abandon the purchase of "Boeing", American cars and agricultural products. "China will resort to retaliatory measures that will lead to job cuts in the United States," said Chinese Deputy Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao. There are grounds for such warnings: the United States is much more dependent on China than China is on the United States. So, Beijing is for Washington the main source of imports.
The answer to the US rapprochement with Taiwan will be to increase support for Washington’s opponents, including, as reported by the Global Times, by supplying arms. It is obvious that one of the first in this list is Iran. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has already warned the new US administration about the inadmissibility of violating a nuclear agreement.
Wanting to weaken China, the US leadership is playing with fire. The intrigues of Trump and his entourage threaten Washington with the fall of global hegemony from Olympus. The peoples of the Earth are waiting for a fairer world order, and China can become its pivot.
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