Military Review

Hot Black Sea

46
Recently, the world's media wrote about the decision taken by the International Tribunal regarding the territorial claims of the PRC in the South China Sea. Analysts again talked about the possibility of confrontation in the region. However, as noted by some experts, in addition to this sea, there is another “strategic water basin”, which can be described as a hotbed of “tension” and almost a “hot spot”. Speech about the Black Sea.




As the browser writes "Forbes" Paul Koyer, the recent decision of the International Tribunal over China’s expansionist claims in the South China Sea, as well as confidence in the ongoing confrontation in that region, reminded of another “strategic water basin” where “high tensions” are noted and there is a “high probability” of military conflict. Nevertheless, experts for some reason do not particularly focus on this region - the Black Sea.

Meanwhile, this sea has long played a key military and economic role for local countries. The sea is rich in resources. In addition, it is historical an arena of geopolitical conflict because of its strategic position. In our time, this only emphasizes the importance of the region in the "confrontation between Russia and the West," since "Russia occupied Crimea." In this regard, the author points out, Russia's neighbors in the Black Sea are increasingly turning to cooperation: joint naval maneuvers and joint defense issues. They strengthen their defenses in order to confront Russia and will not allow the transfer of full control of the Black Sea to Moscow.

The browser lists the countries that have their own interests here.

Romania is concerned about the safety of oil and gas platforms at sea and the possibility of free passage of ships at the mouth of the Danube. Full control over the mouth of the Danube is strategically important: the river plays the role of the central European transport channel.

Then Georgia. This republic, Paul Koyer points out, also occupies an important strategic position and needs free navigation in the Black Sea: this is its way to Europe. If the Russians had gained complete control over the sea, this would have led to the isolation of Georgia from its western partners. Tbilisi would be vulnerable to Moscow.

Finally, Ukraine. If recently Moscow, which annexed Crimea, gained a strategic advantage, then Kiev suffered a loss. For Ukraine, access to the sea is vital both in strategic and economic aspects, and Russia, the American author believes, from the Crimea can block Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea via the Dnieper and Dniester.

As for Russia itself, it “for hundreds of years” understands that control over the Black Sea is “vital for security.” Well, control over the Crimea is “the key to the influence on the Black Sea”.

Crimea became the center of Russian naval power as early as the 18th century (after Tsarist Russia defeated the Ottoman Empire in a series of wars). Access to the Black Sea was one of the reasons for the Crimean War of the mid-19th century. One of the main reasons why Russia lost the war to Britain, France and the Ottoman Empire was Russia's inability to fully control the Black Sea: its enemies dominated there. After losing the war, Russia has strategically suffered: it did not have the full right to place its warships at sea. The author calls this situation a "strategic nightmare." And it was precisely the awareness of the same situation that was one of the factors that led to Moscow’s concern about the debates in Kiev about Russia's refusal to rent a base in Sevastopol. All this contributed to the “Putin’s decision to annex the peninsula”: after all, euromaidan led Moscow to lose its ally, Yanukovich.

As the journalist writes further, complete control over the Crimea and the Black Sea would give Russia superiority in the entire local region, including in the “centuries-old geopolitical rivalry with Turkey.”

In addition to the defense importance of the city of Sevastopol, Moscow sees its sea base as an object that is crucial for Russia's ability to implement a naval modernization project at the global level. Moscow wants to expand its naval presence in the world, as well as its influence in the Mediterranean, the Atlantic Ocean and the Persian Gulf, the author is sure. Without Crimea, the global rise of Russia would not have such a weight.

Russia's determination to control the Black Sea, therefore, has deep historical roots and a clear strategic rationale, the author sums up.

However, the analyst does not agree that the behavior of the Russian Federation is exclusively “defensive in nature”. With this argument, the author "is not easy to agree", because he observes "the picture of Russian aggression over the past few years." In particular, Koyera is worried about the “dramatic expansion of Russian military power in the Black Sea,” as a result of which other Black Sea states are “more and more nervous”.

True, the possibilities of the Russian fleet "Significantly lagging behind" the corresponding capabilities of the US Navy. In general, it is highly unlikely that the Russian Navy could “ever again” achieve the power that the Soviet fleet had. Nevertheless, the Russians can pose a serious challenge to the United States and NATO, restricting their freedom of action in the Black Sea. At the end of last year, Russia demonstrated some of its capabilities by launching cruise missiles and hitting targets in Syria. This demonstration, the observer is sure, was addressed to the West and the Black Sea neighbors of Russia.

“The aggressive behavior of Russia,” the author continues, seems to be intended as a signal, signifying Moscow’s willingness to take a risky conflict. If the United States and NATO are not willing to take risks, then they will have to retreat. “It reminds of China’s behavior in the South China Sea, isn’t it?” The journalist notes.

And it was not without reason that Turkish President Recep Erdogan warned in May that Russia was turning the Black Sea into a “Russian lake”.

The “loyalty” of the West to Moscow on the issue of control over the Black Sea will have negative strategic consequences that go far beyond the issue of military advantage in the Black Sea, the analyst concludes. The events of recent history show that Vladimir Putin will take advantage of all the advantages that the West will provide him.

Recall that this spring in the press there were reports of the desire of NATO to take control of the Black Sea. The goal is to "contain Russia". This was announced at the end of April in Sofia by NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow. He participated in the Atlantic Club meeting as part of the Black Sea Security Conference.

"There are very valuable discussions with allies who live on the Black Sea coast ... about closer integration of their naval forces," Vershbow quotes. RBC.

According to him, NATO is already patrolling the sea, and yet the Allies could "expand their presence" in the region.

Vershbow is convinced that Russia's strategy in the Black Sea "is part of a global effort to assert itself - efforts that extend from the Arctic to Syria and that threaten to challenge the unity of NATO, as well as the territorial integrity of the alliance."

Undoubtedly, we add, Erdogan's later remarks about the “Russian lake” became the voice of all in the same NATO choir. The West does not want and, of course, will never wish to strengthen the Russian presence in the Black Sea. This region really becomes like a “hot spot”.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
46 comments
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  1. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 28 July 2016 05: 55
    +35
    Well, if Turkey said "Russian Lake", then so be it.
    1. Alex_Rarog
      Alex_Rarog 28 July 2016 06: 44
      +4
      That and be on our lake a couple of Turkey CAR x beaches leave)))) the Sultan seemed to realize his mistakes began
    2. Volzhanin
      Volzhanin 28 July 2016 09: 28
      +17
      For many centuries this sea was called the "Russian Sea". This is evidenced by numerous old maps, including Arab and European ones.
      It remains to restore the status quo and make it truly Russian, as it always was.

      It also amazes me extremely why our authorities will not openly say yanked yankees and what the hell are you here forgot on another continent? Who are you and what are you doing here? And so on all counts.
      1. Hyppopotut
        Hyppopotut 28 July 2016 09: 42
        +9
        It's time for our politicians to care about the influence of the United States in the Caribbean, or the Gulf of California!
  2. Bort radist
    Bort radist 28 July 2016 05: 57
    +8
    "This region is really becoming like a hot spot." in a sentence. The uncontrolled global influence of the United States ends.
  3. KOH
    KOH 28 July 2016 06: 05
    +14
    As the journalist writes further, complete control over the Crimea and the Black Sea would give Russia superiority in the entire local region, including in the “centuries-old geopolitical rivalry with Turkey.”

    And he gave Russia superiority, it's not for nothing that the "partners" scream ...)))))))
    1. Aleksander
      Aleksander 28 July 2016 06: 51
      +17
      [quote = KON] As the journalist writes further, full control over Crimea and the Black Sea would give Russia superiority in the entire local region, including in "centuries-old geopolitical rivalry with Turkey." And he gave Russia superiority, not in vain " partners "squeal [/ quot]

      What is interesting is that when the USSR was there — only 25 years ago — the situation seemed absolutely calm to them and did not cause alarm, but today, when Russia (even with the Crimea) has a much less coastline and much less strength, they became scared.
      Hypocrites ....
      1. Lord_Bran
        Lord_Bran 28 July 2016 08: 51
        +5
        I think the point here is that NATO is decrepit. To put it mildly. They understand that they are not able to cover all the centers of tension.
    2. Alexey-74
      Alexey-74 28 July 2016 09: 53
      +2
      How they fuss, how they squeal, they understand that in this region the stripes lose control. Russia made historical conclusions and again regained the Crimea .... the history of the confrontation continues, only we will play by our own rules !!!
      1. Boa kaa
        Boa kaa 28 July 2016 12: 37
        +9
        Quote: Alexey-74
        How they fussed, how they squealed

        And there is something!
        When the Turks shot down our SU-24 and Turkey got into a fight with Russia, it seemed to the states that the game was done and the southern flank of NATO is more reliable than ever.
        But the situation has changed. Erdogan repented, crawls to Peter to kiss the handle of the Darkest. The Yankees did not expect such a break from the Janissaries.
        They also well understand that the Darkest will squeeze everything out of this situation in order to weaken the military activity of NATO countries in the World Cup region, where Turkey is one of the key players.
        There is an obvious loss of "quality".
        And it is possible to conclude an agreement not to repeat the incidents with aircraft and ships of the two countries in the future, limiting naval activity in the World Cup basin ... Then the NATO maneuvers ... in the World Cup! can be flushed down the toilet. But you never know what Lavrov will be able to bargain for "tomatoes" and tourist flow to Antalya! And also a gas hub, a nuclear power plant and other gingerbread ...
        I think it will be difficult for the Sultan to refuse such an offer. The states can’t promise them anything right now: there’s a mapet show with elections! EU - they don’t know how to get out of the ass ...
        So, wait, "we'll see!" yes
      2. Hayer31
        Hayer31 28 July 2016 20: 58
        +1
        Mariupol is not enough
    3. Lyubopyatov
      Lyubopyatov 28 July 2016 12: 55
      +8
      As a goat journalist writes, Russia will isolate (lock) Georgia, for example, not allowing it to enter European markets ... What the goat has in mind, he attributes to honest Russians. We never obstructed peaceful trade; on the contrary, we sacrificed a lot to our own people so that our neighbors feel better.
      1. KaPToC
        KaPToC 28 July 2016 17: 34
        +3
        This is the essence of Western propaganda, they attribute to us their crimes.
  4. Denis DV
    Denis DV 28 July 2016 06: 13
    +6
    Chukovsky geopolitics laughing "And the chanterelles took the matches, They went to the blue sea, We lit the blue sea. The sea is burning with flames, A whale ran out of the sea:" Hey, firemen, run! "
  5. Observer2014
    Observer2014 28 July 2016 06: 14
    +13
    By the way, at the expense of the hot spot. When ours were pulling the first string of the gas pipeline to Turkey. In Russia and abroad, splashing saliva, rolling their eyes in an "ecological fit" screamed all the ecologists that hydrogen sulfide in the Black Sea! Maybe a giant mega super duper explosion! Where now This gang is a watering can? Why are they silent? And then suddenly someone bangs at the depth! And there is hydrogen sulfide laughing
    1. ssdfrf
      ssdfrf 28 July 2016 06: 18
      0
      Quote: Observer2014
      By the way, at the expense of the hot spot. When ours were pulling the first string of the gas pipeline to Turkey. In Russia and abroad, splashing saliva, rolling their eyes in an "ecological fit" screamed all the ecologists that hydrogen sulfide in the Black Sea! Maybe a giant mega super duper explosion! Where now This gang is a watering can? Why are they silent? And then suddenly someone bangs at the depth! And there is hydrogen sulfide laughing

      Observer 2014, do not be afraid you are so for your Adler - do not bang smile .
    2. Samarin
      Samarin 28 July 2016 10: 13
      -3
      Quote: Observer2014
      When our people were pulling the first string of the gas pipeline to Turkey. In Russia and abroad, splashing saliva, rolling their eyes in an "ecological fit" screamed all the ecologists that there is hydrogen sulfide in the Black Sea!


      Yes, no one always cares about the environment, especially "your" hucksters, who are always ours and yours, who push OUR gas everywhere, which is a "national treasure", by the way.
  6. Dart2027
    Dart2027 28 July 2016 06: 18
    +1
    In general, we are on the right track.
  7. parusnik
    parusnik 28 July 2016 06: 28
    +4
    The Black Sea, once called Russian ... so ..
    1. nadezhiva
      nadezhiva 28 July 2016 07: 08
      +4
      Quote: parusnik
      The Black Sea, once called Russian ... so ..

      Straight hands itch to rename. Called: return as it was wink
      in the X-XIV centuries, in ancient Russian, Arab and Western sources it is referred to as the “Russian Sea”, which is associated with its active use by navigators from Russia. In the "Tale of Bygone Years" it says, "And Dnepr is draining into the Pontic Sea with three necklaces, the hedgehog catching the sea Ruska ..."
      It would give the international lawyers the go-ahead to be puzzled by the problem.
  8. Pitot
    Pitot 28 July 2016 06: 38
    +8
    Correctly said above - if our "partners" are hysterical and screaming, then everything is being done as it should for Russia ... And in general, the Sheriff's Indians are not interested in the problems of the Indians ...
  9. Wolka
    Wolka 28 July 2016 06: 38
    +6
    Well, yes, the World Cup is a big intersection, and Turkey is not a capable traffic light in the World Cup, so a real traffic controller with a stick and a whistle is required ...
  10. Ferdinant
    Ferdinant 28 July 2016 06: 40
    +8
    In vain, Adzharia, then the Georgians were given.
    1. Alex_Tug
      Alex_Tug 28 July 2016 08: 10
      +2
      Ferdinant
      In vain, Adzharia, then the Georgians were given.


      Adjara does not represent strategic value for Russia like Abkhazia.
      1. Hayer31
        Hayer31 28 July 2016 21: 05
        +1
        Again, the land began to be distributed; on the turnaround, the land itself is strategically valuable, more expensive than gold. Zaribi on the nose. And without Adjara, Gruzia would not have come against us.
  11. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 28 July 2016 06: 42
    +9
    For the United States is insulting. They tried so hard to make the Black Sea an American lake, and here such a bummer. For dull Yankees ready to explain: we live here. Point!
  12. avia12005
    avia12005 28 July 2016 06: 45
    +3
    Full strategic calm will come only when the Black Sea becomes the Crimean and the Caribbean Sea becomes Russian.
  13. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 28 July 2016 06: 56
    +2
    No, but you have to come up with such a thing? Blame Russia "for all serious" well, right according to the Russian proverb: "He sees a speck in someone else's eye, but does not notice a log in his own!" Our Black Sea has been for many centuries and from which side is it "200 years ago, a state formed by bandits and adventurers of all stripes under the name of the United States, or they together with the "great ukrami" dug the Black Sea, and Russia took it away from them ?! And in general, it's time to understand where the United States is and where the Black Sea is and stop raving about the "Russian threat"! If there is a threat in the world, it is a robber state called the United States, or it would be more correct to call it "United bandit-pirate state "! And I want to end with the words of the Supreme Indian Chief:" The United States must be destroyed ... "!
  14. Banishing liberoids
    Banishing liberoids 28 July 2016 06: 57
    +6
    If Russia were aggressive 30 percent of the aggressiveness of the United States, we would have returned Alaska back fool
    1. Alex_Tug
      Alex_Tug 28 July 2016 08: 22
      +2

      If Russia were aggressive 30 percent of the aggressiveness of the United States, we would have returned Alaska back


      Do you need Alaska? It is better to return the Russian outposts that were in California.
  15. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 28 July 2016 07: 01
    +2
    Koyer is concerned about the “sharp expansion of Russian military power in the Black Sea”

    It’s strange. Russia has access to this sea, naturally fulfills its national interests and strengthens the Black Sea Fleet. But Koyer is not worried about the presence of US Navy ships in this region? Where is the United States and where is the Black Sea.
  16. antivirus
    antivirus 28 July 2016 07: 02
    +3
    Quote: Michael m
    For the United States is insulting. They tried so hard to make the Black Sea an American lake, and here such a bummer. For dull Yankees ready to explain: we live here. Point!

    It is too little. The loss of the Outskirts led to failure: Minsk is behind NATO (behind the Rezekne or Dvinsk-Kiev lines)
    We are at the beginning of a long and difficult journey.
    Do not count the steps traveler.
  17. Flinky
    Flinky 28 July 2016 07: 15
    +1
    The squeal of mclaren is satisfied.
  18. Taygerus
    Taygerus 28 July 2016 07: 22
    0
    In general, the United States has beguiled all the shores, only they ran into the wrong ones, let it be better for the wretched ones to take up their most "democratic" elections
  19. aba
    aba 28 July 2016 07: 38
    +1
    “Compliance” of the West to Moscow on the issue of control over the Black Sea will have negative strategic consequences

    And Moscow's "compliance" of course has no strategic consequences for Russia - the Western "partners" promise us seven times a day and they just need to be trusted!
  20. BOB044
    BOB044 28 July 2016 07: 43
    0
    NATO without pills as without gingerbread. They understand only power. And now they will be rocking at Russia, but they cannot do anything. Because they are afraid of the forces of Russia. And the fact that Putin is in power who will not give them a descent.
  21. azer
    azer 28 July 2016 08: 15
    0
    The Yankees got lost, not swimming in their lake
  22. 96423lom
    96423lom 28 July 2016 08: 54
    +2
    The West has now lost its mask in only two ways, or so.
  23. 96423lom
    96423lom 28 July 2016 08: 56
    -5
    Or something like that
    1. mr.redpartizan
      mr.redpartizan 28 July 2016 12: 28
      +5
      Or maybe better.
    2. mr.redpartizan
      mr.redpartizan 28 July 2016 12: 30
      +1
      Or like this.
  24. Dimy4
    Dimy4 28 July 2016 09: 08
    +1
    "Aggressive behavior of Russia" ...

    Well, as they say, there are no words, and those that are not printed.
  25. Zulu_S
    Zulu_S 28 July 2016 09: 32
    +2
    Perhaps we should express concern about the superiority of the US Navy in the Gulf of Mexico, and visit missile boats of the Russian Navy in Cuba?
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 28 July 2016 13: 06
      +2
      Quote: Zulu_S
      and visit missile boats of the Russian Navy in Cuba?

      A couple of remarks:
      - not the Navy, but the Russian Navy;
      - will we deliver the boats to Cuba on lighters or on something else?
      - and what they will do there against hundreds of aircraft with Harpoons (and more for the RCA with their powerful missile defense / air defense and is not necessary).
      - Have you thought about MTO?
      and such questions you can ask a dozen more.
      So your offer does not go through. yes
    2. KaPToC
      KaPToC 28 July 2016 17: 39
      0
      Why send missile boats there if our submarine missile carriers are there?
  26. Galleon
    Galleon 28 July 2016 09: 55
    +4
    Quote: Volzhanin
    It also amazes me extremely why our authorities will not openly say yanked yankees and what the hell are you here forgot on another continent? Who are you and what are you doing here? And so on all counts.


    They will say. Soon they will say! Until the time has come, but soon will come wink
  27. Boa kaa
    Boa kaa 28 July 2016 13: 13
    +2
    Done: Crimea is ours again!
    And then the Yankees can howl at the moon and scratch their paws behind their ears.
    Without a big war, they will not be able to return everything to the original. They are not ready for war. It remains Ukrov and Janissaries to impose on the Russian bear. Some have already sobered up, crawling on the tunnels for forgiveness to Peter. God willing and the second will be the same!
  28. lukke
    lukke 28 July 2016 15: 09
    0
    I really don’t understand why here are the thoughts of some crazy Paul Coyer. Some journalist ?! I am in shock. Who is he at all? Analyst, politician, head of a global corporation, state official of the State Department? s.r.a.s. He is right only in one thing - as long as our fleet does not reach the level of the times of the USSR, we need to try. Everything else is a schizoid note with a mentoring tone of world hegemon: who needs what to do so that Uncle Sam pats on the cheek.
    P.S. Happy Holidays to all Sevastopol residents! and my condolences to the Siberians, although I hope Seryozha will not make too much of a plenipotentiary for the post of "plenipotentiary"
  29. KaPToC
    KaPToC 28 July 2016 17: 31
    +2
    He put a minus only for the phrase that Russia allegedly lost the Crimean War.
    The Crimean War was not, in and of itself, hostilities other than Crimea were in the Caucasus and the Balkans, where Russia certainly won.
    And even in the Crimea, Russia was not defeated, Russia made concessions under political pressure, but the west hastened to ascribe to itself the victory in the war.
    If Russia had lost the Crimean War, then apparently Koyim would have been torn away from us.
  30. 1536
    1536 28 July 2016 19: 01
    +1
    And in the Gulf of Mexico, the Americans do not want to see the Russian Navy base? What kind of nonsense did they forget in the Black Sea, in the place where, long before the appearance of their grief-state, Russia was, lived, fought and made friends, where English is not heard, where there is nothing to do to blond beasties and other foolish things that are worthless to someone else?
    Turkey is a Black Sea country, Bulgaria, Romania, Russia. And who are the Americans? And if they don’t like such questions, well, these are their problems, and they can result in a good slap in the face to their entire praised fleet and its servants!