Military Review

Chinese factor found

48
According to experts of the Bank of Russia, the economic situation of China greatly influences the situation in the Russian Federation. The state of China, they say, is a key factor affecting the Russian economy. Even the policy of the US Federal Reserve is less significant for Russia. The fact is that a slowdown in the growth of the PRC economy leads to a decrease in demand for raw materials, which affects the dynamics of world prices for oil and metals.


Recently, speaking at the Credit Suisse “Emerging Markets - Russia” conference, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudaeva explained that slowing down the Chinese economy by an 1 percentage point results in slowing down the Russian economy by 0,5 points. “As for our estimates, the slowdown of the Chinese economy by 1 pp broadcast on 0,5 pp slowdown of the Russian economy, provided that Russia does not change the economic course ", - quotes her TASS.

According to the expert, the world is not fully ready for the market exchange rate of the yuan. “In my understanding, the world is not fully prepared for this, and further discussion is needed here, how it will happen globally,” Yudaeva said.

Earlier, we recall, the economist at the International Monetary Fund, Anna Ilyina, who occupies the post of head of the emerging economies department of the European Department of the IMF, suggested that the decline in the Russian economy in 2016 and 2017. should slow down. "Last year was very difficult, because the Russian economy decreased by 3,7%, oil prices fell, and this undermined foreign trade," she quotes. Rosbalt. - Without a doubt, a decrease in demand in Russia affected the countries that export to this country. And yet we believe that the recession in Russia this year will be less, and next year we will get positive growth, and this will be good the news for her trading partners. ”

The Bank of Russia, however, does not give such rosy assessments of the near future and, it seems, does not expect a “positive growth”. And all the reason - again, China.

Speaking at the same Credit Suisse conference, Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin noted that problems in the Chinese economy could return oil prices to the level of the beginning of the year. True, Russia less than other countries will suffer from the deterioration of the economy of the Middle Kingdom.

According to the deputy head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, which leads RBC, China's economic slowdown can return oil prices to the level of the beginning of the 2016 of the year. In January, the price ranged between $ 30 and $ 40, and in the middle of the month it fell below $ 28, the agency reminds.

“Serious problems in the Chinese economy can lead to a repetition of the collapse in oil prices, which we have already seen at the beginning of the year. These risks are worth paying attention to when formulating economic policies; they cannot be dismissed. All policies need to be structured taking into account the risk of recession in China, ”said Oreshkin.

However, in his opinion, Russia will suffer less than other countries from the deterioration of the situation in the Chinese economy: “In fact, Russia will be the country that will suffer the least from Chinese problems. We will see, because for the last couple of years we have undergone serious adjustments, which, I think, will help us if there is another wave of global economic problems. ”

In the summer of 2015, recall "Vedomosti"when world markets covered the first wave of panic because of a likely slowdown in the PRC economy, economists at Citigroup calculated how the expected significant slowdown could affect the growth rates of other countries.

According to analysts, Asian countries, neighbors of China, should feel the acute negative impact. Neither their position will affect the decline in demand for their products. In addition, the Chinese factor will hit the exporters of raw materials: in Chile, Malaysia, Russia, Australia and Norway.

In Russia, a specific forecast was voiced due to a slowdown in China's GDP growth on 1 pp. According to Citigroup, the Russian Federation could lose 0,7 pp growth in this case.

As the chairman of Roubini Global Economics and professor of Stern Business School Nouriel Roubini said at the conference, the Chinese economy cannot grow at a rate faster than 5% per year, although management has set the task to grow by 6,5% (difficult to implement and with many risks). According to the expert, in the short term, the weakening of monetary policy helps to stimulate growth, but in the medium term it holds many risks and increases the stress for the economy.

However, not all analysts believe that there is a direct and strong connection between the economies of China and Russia.

The head of the international economic organizations sector of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Vyacheslav Kholodkov recently spoke out regarding Yidaeva’s opinion above. He believes that the search for external causes to explain internal problems is an attempt to shift responsibility from a sick head to a healthy one.

"This is an attempt to shift the responsibility on someone, in this case to China, for their own mediocre economic policy," - quotes the expert "Reedus".

Yes, the Celestial Empire is one of the largest trading partners of Russia. In 2015, the volume of foreign trade of the Russian Federation amounted to 534 billion dollars, of which China accounted for 68 billion dollars, or 12,7% of the total turnover. At the same time, Russia is much more dependent on the EU. “The EU countries account for 45% of our foreign trade. And it is the EU countries, not China, that are the main consumers of our oil and gas, ”said Kholodkov.

The expert believes that the statements about the slowdown in China's economy as the main reason for the decline in world oil prices is a primitive point of view. Indeed, in 2015, global GDP grew by 3,1%, what kind of decline is there? And the demand for oil, the expert says, also grew: its consumption increased from 93 million barrels to 95 million barrels per day. Kholodkov notes that the price of oil fell not because of lower demand, but because of the increase in its production by producing countries: supply by two million barrels per day exceeded demand. The expert recalled that the Saudis increased shipments to 1,5 million barrels per day, then Iraq is increasing them, and Iran has also entered the world market. Finally, we must not forget about the "shale revolution" in the United States.

“Here are the main factors behind the fall in oil prices. Of course, the slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy had some impact on the conjuncture of the world oil market. But this influence is much less than the factors that I have listed, ”said Kholodkov.

As for the ruble, the Bank of Russia itself in October 2014 of the year released the ruble to float freely! And he even refused to regulate the currency in the regimes of the so-called floating exchange rate (through currency interventions). Against this background, the reasoning about the slowdown in China is ridiculous, the expert concluded. According to him, the current Chinese growth rate (6,7% per year) of Russia “with this kind of economic management” is “only a dream”.

Russia, we will add on our own, much of what we have to dream with a guide that gives advices to old men: “You stay here ...” The leadership listens these are the popular speeches: “They wipe their feet on us!” Having thought it over, the authorities find appropriate to justify recall the notorious inflation, which they themselves, with the active assistance of the Central Bank, dispersed in pursuit of the ruble compensation of dollar oil revenues.

By the way, “protecting and ensuring the stability of the ruble” is the primary task of the Central Bank, stated in art. 3 of Federal Law No. XXUMX-FZ “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)”. Now, the Central Bank is pointing at the Chinese, saying that they are to blame, because of them we have a “slowdown” of the economy, and soon we will generally come to “a repeat of the collapse in oil prices.”

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
48 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. AFG-X
    AFG-X 14 June 2016 06: 31
    +5
    Interestingly, someday our economy will be independent of oil prices and the economies of other states.
    Ehhh, to live. recourse
  2. azer
    azer 14 June 2016 06: 49
    0
    These bankers would be sent to Siberia for a year, then they remembered pride in the country
  3. antiexpert
    antiexpert 14 June 2016 06: 51
    +12
    demon kamintaeff))
    1. Imperialkolorad
      Imperialkolorad 14 June 2016 09: 41
      +1
      As I looked into the water ...
    2. Kenneth
      Kenneth 14 June 2016 12: 25
      +2
      More right was the one who said that the system that would ensure the growth of labor productivity would win. Like Lenin.
      1. Basarev
        Basarev 14 June 2016 19: 17
        -1
        However, in terms of labor productivity, the United States surpassed the Union without much effort. Because the conditions and labor legislation. It’s not the same thing - to return from the factory in a strict evening hour, where a person was only put on a car overseer, in his own car in a suburban cottage — and use a file to solder for 16 hours a day with a file. That is why I am opposed to any ideologies that oppress the standard of living, because the standard of living is high priest. He is the main carrier. There is nothing more important than the standard of living. Anything else can be sacrificed except him. And only fools chase beautiful indicators of inflation and economic growth. The only figure for which one should not reckon with any means is GDP per capita. I said.
        1. Parsec
          Parsec 14 June 2016 19: 41
          +1
          Quote: Basarev
          It’s not the same thing - to return from the factory in a strict evening hour, where a person was only put on a car overseer, in his own car in a suburban cottage — and use a file to solder for 16 hours a day with a file.


          Oh how everything is up and running.

          Have you been to the factory? You were not at the factory.

          Specify how many methods for calculating the gross product exist and how many methods for calculating labor productivity.
          What is the biggest debtor in the world with such a gracious picture of the USA?
          1. Basarev
            Basarev 14 June 2016 20: 26
            +1
            Not because the United States is the largest debtor because it is unable to make ends meet and therefore forced to borrow - but because sucker countries are actively buying US debt securities in order to somehow hide finances from the raging inflation. Although it doesn’t work anyway. As the saying goes, a fool does not hold on to money.
        2. Kenneth
          Kenneth 14 June 2016 23: 01
          0
          This is exactly what I had in mind
          Vovchik himself wrote a sentence to his brainchild.
  4. zulusuluz
    zulusuluz 14 June 2016 07: 22
    +9
    At that moment, when the Russian economy ceases to be a raw material, then dependence on the Chinese economy will cease. But there will be a dependence on markets ...
    1. Basarev
      Basarev 14 June 2016 19: 19
      0
      And first of all, it would be possible to saturate the domestic market. A very revealing example was almost recently when the government reported a record export of grain ... And people began to feed feed.
  5. ImPerts
    ImPerts 14 June 2016 07: 26
    +6
    ... the other day the head of the sector of international economic organizations of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Vyacheslav Kholodkov spoke out. He believes that the search for external causes to explain internal problems is an attempt to shift responsibility from a sore head to a healthy one.
    “This is an attempt to shift the responsibility to someone, in this case China, for their own mediocre economic policy,” Reedus quoted the expert as saying.

    I agree more with Kholodkov than with Yudaeva. "I'm not guilty, he came himself" - this is how it happens with Ms. Yudaeva. And the sound of a tearing bra ...
  6. EvgNik
    EvgNik 14 June 2016 08: 05
    +4
    You know, Oleg, put a plus, but with great doubt. I do not trust these Chinese. Somehow it turns out that the best friends, and then the enemies. Something does not grow together.
    1. Beefeater
      Beefeater 14 June 2016 08: 51
      +2
      Quote: EvgNik
      You know, Oleg, put a plus, but with great doubt. I do not trust these Chinese. Somehow it turns out that the best friends, and then the enemies. Something does not grow together.

      For the most part, Chinese people are not very literate, let's say so rustic, in the worst sense of the word, inclined to act solely for the purpose of personal gain. These are not friends. In the best case scenario, trading partners are ready to take advantage of our difficult situation if something happens.
      My relative was a diplomat in Beijing under Mao. Wanting to cause a scandal at diplomatic receptions, the Chinese served fried snakes and rats. We had to heroically overcome the gastronomic terror. But we then built several hundred plants for them.
    2. russkiy redut
      russkiy redut 14 June 2016 10: 05
      +4
      There are no friends in geopolitics, only interests!
      1. Basarev
        Basarev 14 June 2016 19: 24
        0
        So Russia should finally adopt this principle. And with all, without exception, to build relations only with rigid pragmatics. And then we pose another brotherly people from the belly, and he, having gotten angry at us and got all the planned benefits, immediately turns to the west.
  7. lao_tsy
    lao_tsy 14 June 2016 08: 21
    +5
    Only personal responsibility for decisions taken or not made on time!
    And if our executive power "screw up", then China is to blame!
    If something works out - then they are "Dartanyans".
    I just have a feeling that everything that our government and the Central Bank does, in particular, is done according to the principle of "rolled" - "not rolled".
    1. Beefeater
      Beefeater 14 June 2016 08: 58
      +2
      Quote: lao_tsy
      Only personal responsibility for decisions taken or not made on time!
      And if our executive power "screw up", then China is to blame!
      If something works out - then they are "Dartanyans".
      I just have a feeling that everything that our government and the Central Bank does, in particular, is done according to the principle of "rolled" - "not rolled".

      I would say the principle here is different.
      And how much will fall into my pocket. Here is the main point.
      In addition, the industrial revolution, which has begun now, will give its fruits in 30 years, so you should not expect instant returns. Even if competent decisions are made, only our grandchildren will be able to verify their effectiveness.
      1. Basarev
        Basarev 14 June 2016 19: 26
        +3
        And now the industrial revolution has begun? Rather, I see the opposite: they already want to sell the last at least some valuable assets in order to fill holes in the budget - they know the intentions to privatize Rosneft and are already approaching the Russian Helicopters.
  8. Ros 56
    Ros 56 14 June 2016 08: 57
    +6
    What kind of debiloid are sitting in our Ministry of Economy, down-and-out idiots. Is it really so difficult to analyze the situation for a year, for three, for five years? Where are these analysts, or are there only relatives sitting on decent salaries? That everything for them in the world happens unexpectedly, to drive this Ulyukaev with kicks in the ass and the prosecutor's office to check his activities.
    1. zyablik.olga
      zyablik.olga 14 June 2016 09: 22
      +4
      Quote: Ros 56
      What kind of debiloid are sitting in our Ministry of Economy, down-and-out idiots. Is it really so difficult to analyze the situation for a year, for three, for five years? Where are these analysts, or are there only relatives sitting on decent salaries? That everything for them in the world happens unexpectedly, to drive this Ulyukaev with kicks in the ass and the prosecutor's office to check his activities.

    2. Amurets
      Amurets 14 June 2016 11: 32
      +5
      Quote: Ros 56
      What kind of debiloid are sitting in our Ministry of Economy, down-and-out idiots. Is it really so difficult to analyze the situation for a year, for three, for five years? Where are these analysts, or are there only relatives sitting on decent salaries? That everything for them in the world happens unexpectedly, to drive this Ulyukaev with kicks in the ass and the prosecutor's office to check his activities.

      Remember the statements of Henry Ford << 24. Thinking is the hardest job; that's probably why so few people do it. >>
      << 6. Only two incentives make people work: the thirst for wages and the fear of losing them. >> I don’t want to think, but our government has no fear of losing their jobs.
    3. Kenneth
      Kenneth 14 June 2016 23: 05
      -1
      And you, of course, are the smartest, but no one needs anyone.
  9. silver_roman
    silver_roman 14 June 2016 10: 19
    +1
    I absolutely agree with Kholodkov:

    The head of the international economic organizations sector of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Vyacheslav Kholodkov recently spoke out regarding Yidaeva’s opinion above. He believes that the search for external causes to explain internal problems is an attempt to shift responsibility from a sick head to a healthy one.

    Shifting from a patient to a healthy head. More precisely, you will not say.
    And the fact that they are sitting in the Central Bank and doing nonsense does not bother anyone. Everyone is looking for someone to push their sins.
  10. Amurets
    Amurets 14 June 2016 11: 23
    +7
    Quote: EvgNik
    I do not trust these Chinese. Somehow it turns out that the best friends, and then the enemies. Something does not grow together.

    Asians have no friends, they have partners, and they look at everything through the prism of "profitable-not profitable." And if they understand that you have power, that you have goods, that you can bargain with you, they will respect you. And the way our government behaves is only ridiculous in China.
  11. Oskar1965
    Oskar1965 14 June 2016 17: 29
    0
    [quote = antiexpert] demon kamintaeff))
    Thanks buddy! Here it would be for our rulers to drive IT into their Drosdophilic brain somehow. Well, what kind of country is this for us? How many times did it come to the same rake for the millennium to understand that capitalism is not for our freedom-loving and just-loving people, but the traitors again make them climb into the guillotine.
  12. The comment was deleted.
  13. ABC
    ABC 14 June 2016 18: 44
    +1
    Quote: voyaka uh
    "This requires managers of the level of Lavrenty Palych" ////

    Do you know how Lavrenty Palych created entire industries after the war?
    Several thousand leading experts in all fields were voluntarily forcibly removed from Germany. They worked in several closed centers (for a very high salary) for several years.
    So in the USSR appeared radars, SAM, the first automation in industry,
    the first electronic devices, avionics, much more.

    In order to repeat this now, it is necessary, for starters, to seize the Silicon Valley in California by landing and remove specialists from there. smile

    Even if it was, it was later, after the war, when the question of the country's survival was most acute. Agree to better take out, recruit, and eventually outbid specialists, so that using their experience and not repeating their mistakes already made, to raise the country from ruins, and not spend national money and stumble where others have already passed.
    1. Karlovar
      Karlovar 14 June 2016 23: 09
      0
      Kitaj rovno tak i postupaet ... A eto desevo, bystro i serdito ..., v uslovijah, kogda vremeni netu na raskacku..Potom pridut k svoim razrabotkam, poucivschis na lucsem mirovom opyte ...