Military Review

Man-made chaos in Iraq

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The political crisis in Iraq is fraught with new conflicts. The actual paralysis of the central government is already used by external players, aimed at the final division of the country. Small, limited sovereignty of state entities will be used to set on neighbors - first of all on Iran.

Consequences of invasion

Western journalists covering events in the Middle East are increasingly using the term “failed state” in relation to Iraq. More rarely, this “most free” press tries to understand the causes of existing problems. But even when such attempts are made, they cause nothing but bewilderment. For example, the authors declare that the root of Iraqi misfortunes lies in multinationality and that the country was born only in 1932 year. However, there are two thirds of such young states in the world, and almost all of them are multiethnic.

Even more often, the regime of Saddam Hussein, who de cruelly oppressed all ethno-religious groups, except for Sunni Arabs, becomes the object of accusations. It is impossible to idealize either this ruler or the time of his reign. But to demonize Hussein is also wrong. Under him, all the major nations and denominations were represented in the top leadership of Iraq. The vice-presidents were Kurds Taha Yasin Ramadan and Taha Mohi al-Din Maaruf. The Minister of Foreign Affairs was Assyrian by nationality and Christian by religion Tariq Aziz. The Speaker of the Parliament was Shiite Saadun Hammadi, who, by the way, was named among the possible successors of Saddam Hussein. And when, after the occupation of the country, the Americans published a list of the most wanted functionaries of the regime for 55, 35 of them turned out to be Shiites. For all the excesses that occurred, Iraqi society remained tolerant and secular.

So the reason for the current state of Iraq should be sought already in this century. The US-led coalition invasion destroyed economic, administrative, and ideological braces. The resulting vacuum favored the degradation of public relations and the actual disintegration of Iraq along tribal, clan and narrowly confessional lines.

The US military administration only legitimized this split. Developed overseas Constitution enshrines the federal structure of the country. Regional authorities received the broadest powers, including financial ones, which led to the strengthening of local clans and tribes. The system of religious quotas imposed by the Americans, ostensibly for fair access to power of all faiths, also turned out to be a disservice. First, she ousted secular forces to the side of political life. Secondly, the government now resembles feudal feedings: all departments are divided between different clans, using the power to enrich and grow their influence. It is not surprising that the bureaucratic apparatus in the country is inflated to an incredible size: if, under Hussein, the number of civil servants did not exceed 1 a million people, now there are more than seven times.

Under these conditions, corruption has permeated the state from top to bottom. Its size was partially revealed by an investigation into the defeats of the Iraqi army in 2014, when almost half of the country was seized by the "Islamic State". It turned out, for example, that 55 thousands of servicemen were only listed on paper, while the allowance allocated to them went into the pockets of the generals. However, for the monstrous defeat and the flight of five divisions, none of the politicians and army officials incurred punishment. Only a few generals were solemnly retired ...

Towards a popular revolution

The situation in the socio-economic sphere, meanwhile, is close to catastrophic. A third of Iraqis, one of the leading exporters of oil, live below the poverty line. Constant interruptions in energy and water supply turn the life of the citizens of this hot country into a real hell. In this situation only worsens. As a result of the IS onset, the number of refugees inside the country exceeded 3 million. And the fall in oil prices hit the budget. With a total volume of trillions of dinars (about 107 billion dollars) in 100, the deficit is 24 trillions. Iraq has no other sources of profit. If under Saddam Hussein, mechanical engineering and light industry existed in the country, now Baghdad gets more than 99 percent of foreign exchange earnings from oil exports.

Last summer, protests swept through Iraq. Hundreds of thousands of people demanded reforms that would eradicate corruption and the dominance of religious parties. The demands of the protesters were supported by the spiritual leader of the Iraqi Shiites Ali Sistani. As a result, Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi announced a large-scale reform of the state administration system, which envisages reducing the number of ministries, and most importantly, replacing the confessional principle of forming government bodies with a professional one. However, a significant part of the parliamentary factions blocked the changes. Among them was the “State of Law” faction, the nominee of which is the prime minister.

New performances began in February. This time their main organizer was Muktada al-Sadr. The world heard about him in 2004, when the Mahdi Army, headed by a 30-year-old charismatic Shiite theologian and politician, began an uprising against the occupying forces. After the withdrawal of foreign troops, it was transformed into a political movement - one of the most influential among the Shiite population. Al-Sadr himself withdrew from public activities. This lasted until 26 in February of this year, when a million-strong demonstration gathered in the central square of Baghdad. Al-Sadr demanded that the government undertake the promised reforms. Otherwise, according to him, the leadership will be swept away by popular anger. Muqtada al-Sadr also accused the authorities of depending on the United States, which, under the pretext of fighting the Islamic State, deployed over 4 thousands of servicemen in Iraq. The Shiite theologian called popular protests "a continuation of the struggle against the hated American occupation."

It may seem strange that a religious movement requires reforms, among which the first item is the abolition of confessional quotas. However, supporters of al-Sadr are the most disadvantaged segments of the population, most suffering from the crisis. Yes, and the Shiite theologian himself emphasizes the desire to rally all faiths and political forces for the revival of Iraq. For example, he pointedly supported the speeches of the Sunnis, who in 2012 — 2013 had protested against infringement of their rights. And now the protests have brought together a variety of groups, including secular. As a member of the Politburo of the Iraqi Communist Party, Yassim al-Hilfi, stated, "we are working together to defend national, popular demands."

However, neither the meetings, nor the indefinite protest action that began in March in the center of Baghdad did not help. Al-Abadi presented to the deputies a list of the new "technocratic" government, but with the exception of a few minor figures, the parliament did not support the proposal of the prime minister. This led to an escalation of tension. 30 April thousands of protesters broke into the so-called Green Zone - the most protected administrative district of the capital, which became a symbol of the abyss that separates people and power. Most of the deputies, fearing reprisals, fled, and Muktad al-Sadr, speaking to supporters, announced the termination of negotiations with the authorities. “Either these corrupt politicians will leave themselves, or the government will fall under the onslaught of the people ... I am waiting for the people's revolution,” he said.

Apparently, this is the only way to save Iraq from disintegration and chaos. In Baghdad, almost every day there are terrorist attacks that take hundreds of lives. The power entangled in clan networks and dependent on the West is not able to cope with this task.

Separatist Sponsors

But the collapse of the country is caused not only by internal causes - it is actively provoked from the outside. A referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan (with its capital in Erbil) may be held in the coming months. 5 May held a meeting of the governing board of the Democratic Party - the leading political force in the autonomy. It was decided to "intensify efforts to prepare a referendum." On the same days, Masrour Barzani gave an interview to the Washington Post. And since this person is not just the head of the Kurdistan Security Council, but also the son of President Massoud Barzani, the statements he made can be called programmatic. After repeating the thesis about the region’s readiness to hold a referendum, Masrour declared that “an experiment called Iraq did not work,” and all attempts to preserve its unity would end in failure.

Making such statements, the leadership of Iraqi Kurdistan only broadcasts the position of external forces. Autonomy depends entirely on Turkey, through which it exports oil. In Kurdistan, there are Turkish soldiers. According to official statements, they train fighters of the local militia, but their mission is not limited to educational tasks, because, for example, Turkish armored vehicles and artillery are deployed at the base of Bashik. In addition, the regional authorities allow Turkish security officials to carry out operations against the militants of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which has strongholds in the autonomy, and even transfer intelligence to Ankara for strikes.

Another partner (or rather, patron) of Erbil is the United States, which also stationed quite large military forces in the region. Finally, Iraqi Kurdistan has allied relations with Saudi Arabia. Following the visit to Riyadh Masud Barzani, the kingdom authorities decided to give autonomy a record financial assistance - 8 billion dollars.

These three countries see Iraqi Kurdistan as a springboard for achieving their own interests, primarily to counteract the influence of Iran. It can hardly be considered a coincidence that simultaneously with the activization of the movement for the independence of the region, the resumption of armed struggle was declared by separatist groups in Iran. The leader of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, Mustafa Hijri, repeating propaganda clichés of the Saudi authorities, called Tehran "the main threat to the region" and called for the destruction of the ruling regime of the Islamic Republic. In early May, Kurdish militants attacked the Iranian military in the city of Sardesht, killing 6 and wounding more than two dozen of them. Tehran pulled off additional forces to the border with Iraqi Kurdistan, since it was in the autonomy that separatist troops were based.

In addition to Kurdistan, the United States and its allies are seeking the proclamation of independence of yet another Iraqi region, for the time being conventionally referred to as Sunnistan. This state should unite the areas inhabited by Sunni Arabs in the west of the country. In February, during a visit to the US by the speaker of the Iraqi parliament (according to quotas, this post is occupied by Sunni Salim al-Jaburi), an agreement was signed on opening in Washington an official diplomatic representation of the Sunnis of Iraq. He was headed by the former governor of the province of Ninawa, Atil al-Nujaifi, who immediately declared that the main goal of the office was “to tell the whole world about the atrocities of Shiites”.

By provoking inter-religious hostility and crushing Iraq, Washington, Ankara and Riyadh can not understand that the defeat of the "Islamic state" is postponed indefinitely. But that is their goal! Turning Iraq into a conglomerate of weak and dependent states, at the same time holding Cerberus of Islamic extremism at the ready, is, in their opinion, the best way to control the region and fight against Iran. In the case of the emergence of quasi-sovereign Kurdistan and Sunnistan, Tehran will find it more difficult to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad and its supporters in Lebanon, and this will change the whole balance of forces in the Middle East. Therefore, on the streets and squares of Baghdad, filled with outraged people, today the fate of more than one Iraq is being decided.
Author:
Photos used:
http://www.vox.com/2016/5/2/11565346/iraq-parliament-protest
20 comments
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  1. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 29 May 2016 06: 25
    +3
    I would have looked at chaos without a crisis of power.
    1. CORNET
      CORNET 29 May 2016 07: 06
      +3
      I have Iraq, Libya, etc. it’s not a pity, they themselves chose their path .... Here Syria is holding on, because it believes Russia!
      1. NordUral
        NordUral 30 May 2016 09: 30
        0
        Hero Marine (or hell knows who else is there).
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 29 May 2016 06: 43
    +1
    On the other hand, after the collapse of Turkey, the Anglo-Saxons border deliberately cut it, bookmarks for the future.
    The time has come, a strong Iraq has been bombed, now the pieces will be taken apart by the "players". Well, as for Turkey, it doesn't help to become a sultanate, son of a bitch, of course, but its own, and oil will be driven to the market on the cheap. Only the Turks and their Kurds do not know what to do, but here are the Iraqi ones. Or do they know?
  4. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 29 May 2016 06: 57
    +3
    Wherever striped-asses come with their democracy - chaos and devastation. Iraq, as a single state, is the end, it is clear. The same scenario awaits Syria. Rather, he would certainly have expected if the "life-giving" videoconferencing had not arrived. And now 50/50, the Fashingtonians are playing the Kurdish card. Disgusting rats. They just annoy with their conceit, conceit and ... ignorance.
    1. 34 region
      34 region 29 May 2016 09: 23
      +1
      Mountain shooter! 06.57. I do not agree a bit that the bombing of Iraq is the ignorance of the United States. The whole point of the article is concentrated in the last paragraph. The United States knew what they were doing. The same article says. There was industry in Iraq, and today there are tribal relations and they live on the sale of raw materials (if in a nutshell). Such a raw material power. Reading about Iraq, I try on this situation in Russia or Ukraine. The manual of globalization among the elves is one in all countries. Having driven the country into the Stone Age, pump resources for beads and recruit meat into gangs to undermine other countries. The logic is simple and straightforward like scrap, but very reliable. The trouble is that there is no other against this scrap. Yes, we bombed in Syria and after that the oil went up a little. So, now we need how to bomb the USA for the development of our economy?
    2. NordUral
      NordUral 30 May 2016 09: 31
      0
      This is their goal, Shooter.
  5. dojjdik
    dojjdik 29 May 2016 07: 28
    +1
    the weakest place among the Americans here is Israel, and it’s necessary to beat it with other people's hands of course; Iraq was destroyed as a state so that it was possible to rob oil without getting into it; Ukraine was also destroyed as a state in retaliation for the fact that we stood up for Assad; when the communists waged an endless war near the borders with Israel, everything was calm in our USSR
    1. Amurets
      Amurets 29 May 2016 09: 46
      +1
      Quote: dojjdik
      the weakest place among the Americans here is Israel, and it’s necessary to beat it with other people's hands of course; Iraq was destroyed as a state so that it was possible to rob oil without getting into it; Ukraine was also destroyed as a state in retaliation for the fact that we stood up for Assad;

      Israel will face the same fate as the rest of the region. Since large deposits of hydrocarbons have been found in Israel, then in all respects "democracy in Israel will not be the system" that would suit the United States. Http://ria.ru/world/20151008/ 1298738912.html
      1. 34 region
        34 region 29 May 2016 10: 20
        0
        Amurets! 09.46. It’s strange. And why didn’t they drill before? If not oil, then look for at least fresh water. On the other hand, to have neighbors of oil producers and not to extract oil ourselves. After all, the country is tiny. Is geology so deprived of this piece of land? Another question of heights. If they recaptured them from Syria, then they probably knew about the bowels. And for this reason, Assad is not welcomed.
        1. Amurets
          Amurets 29 May 2016 14: 06
          0
          Quote: Region 34
          After all, the country is tiny. Is geology so deprived of this piece of land? Another question of heights. If they recaptured them from Syria, then they probably knew about the bowels. And for this reason, Assad is not welcomed.

          They bored, but they found lens manifestations of oil. But in general, look at Wikis: Israel’s minerals. You will find a lot there. There are many links there. Assad is not satisfied with many issues, but the main reason, it seems to me, is that Assad destroyed the plans of Erdogan and the United States to create a new Ottoman Caliphate, led by Erdogan, which will be controlled by the United States. But alas, it did not grow together. And the experience of creating al-Qaeda and the Taliban did not teach Americans anything.
  6. cap
    cap 29 May 2016 07: 35
    +1
    The US-led coalition invasion destroyed economic, administrative, and ideological bonds. The vacuum created favored the degradation of social relations and the actual disintegration of Iraq along tribal, clan, and narrow confessional lines.

    The US military administration only legitimized this split. The Constitution developed overseas secured the federal structure of the country.


    He focused on this particular part and asked a question. But the gentlemen set the same task in Russia, visiting the Novosibirsk region at the highest level.
    I think so. For the old Anglo-Saxon trick almost always worked.
    The countries of the Middle East are not so well organized and united as the peoples of Russia. Yes, and with the information we are all right. The Yankees hire the recruits in Russia, you just need to send to the Tuguro-Chumikan district and let them take care of the Fatherland by handing over gold bullion to the treasury. For the money of course. Tea is not 37 years old.
    That something like this.
    As for what was written in the article, I think it is absolutely true. The war will continue there for a long and tedious period, and the money, oil and people standing behind all this are to blame.
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 29 May 2016 18: 59
      +2
      Cap

      Still, there is no need to show false optimism in relation to Russia.
      The fact that Iraq was destroyed, other mechanisms work here, but not the ones that you described.

      But Russia is still in serious danger. The danger comes from the younger generation. The younger generation of the Russian Federation in connection with the educational and cultural educational system has false ideas about life. These pitfalls are already in place. They can occur.

      This is a subjective view of the media formed in the Russian Federation.
  7. knn54
    knn54 29 May 2016 07: 46
    0
    After the overthrow of Hussein, a large number of unclaimed high-ranking officers, including security officials, remained, many of whom were imprisoned in camps. In one of these camps, at the suggestion of Haji Bakri, the idea of ​​IS was born. 10 years ago, the former military united with 11 (!) Small groups ... And "it started." By the way, after the murder of Haji Bakri, computers, passports, telephones and NOT a SINGLE copy of the Koran were found in his house!
    1. 34 region
      34 region 29 May 2016 09: 33
      +2
      07.46. Well, the officers remained. Field commanders appeared. Can field commanders win a war without a single command? No. Amazing But a handful of field commanders were called the State of Libya and Iraq. And who gave them the status of the state? Why do not want to give him LDNR? So the process is led from outside. And they control and direct it. Like accidentally dropped a weapon and accidentally bombed (you don’t go there, go here). Someone needs it, because of profitability.
  8. avg-mgn
    avg-mgn 29 May 2016 12: 12
    +1
    Quote: knn54
    After the overthrow of Hussein, there remained a large number of unclaimed high-ranking officers, including security officials, many of whom were put in camps.

    Ask yourself - why did you need to overthrow Sadam and who benefits from it? The answer is on the surface - a strong leader in the region was not needed, if he had remained in power, the states would not have been able to ruin the region so easily. And so it all grew together - and there is no leader and objectionable, again, primarily to the states, in prisons or executed.
  9. Ratmir_Ryazan
    Ratmir_Ryazan 29 May 2016 12: 57
    +1
    In the USA, at the existing rate of oil production, it will end in 10 years or so ... You can easily check it ... The rate of oil production in the USA is 8-10 million barrels per day, an average of 3 billion barrels per year ... All the explored reserves of the United States are only 46 billion barrels ... In general, they will pump out everything to the last drop in 15 years ... And then what? Horror ... Given that, in the world 90 million barrels are consumed per day DAY, and almost 20 million are consumed only by the USA !!! That is, they now even half do not cover their oil needs !!! And what did they come up with? And here is what:
    The US decided to take control of all Middle East oil ... But how? Winning it is already too much even for the United States, and it would hardly have worked out for them ... They made it easier and cheaper ... They organized a provocation on September 11, killed 3000 of their citizens and got a reason to fight terrorism around the world, first set up a bridgehead in Afghanistan, and then overthrew the government in Iraq and Libya under various pretexts, it almost turned out in Syria, and Iran went further according to plan ... Naturally, these countries then plunged into chaos ... Then the USA created ISIS and other bandit groups , armed them and provided everything necessary ... ISIS took control of the oil regions of Libya, Syria and Iraq ... And then they sell oil at a very low price naturally the United States, through Turkey and through a number of other routes ...
    Shale in the United States is all rubbish and most likely a cover for smuggled oil ... the US is used to manipulating oil prices ... And the loss of control over this will certainly not lead to the end of the US, but it will greatly add to their capabilities and appetites ... And they Well, they don’t want it either ...
    Glory to the Russian Aerospace Forces !!! The United States got through the horns, oil began to rise in price again, even despite the constant reports that allegedly reserves in the United States were only growing))) ...
    But it’s too early to relax, the main battle is yet to come !!!
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 29 May 2016 19: 05
      0
      Ratmir
      Everything looks logical.

      But do not use this word- Glory. Already so compromised. Causes a sour smile.
  10. Lord blacwood
    Lord blacwood 29 May 2016 18: 23
    +1
    The United States has always needed weak countries that need to "help" build democracy. The Americans did not specifically train the Iraqi army, did not build the economy, because then Iraq would become independent. And so he depends on the United States economically and militarily. And there are a lot of such countries. Read the history of the Cold War, the US did it all the time.
  11. gladcu2
    gladcu2 29 May 2016 19: 08
    +1
    The USA knows how to plan splendidly with a look at 20 years ahead. Such planning delights admiration.

    But I wanted this planning to be in line with progress, rather than transferring resources from one pocket to another.
  12. Monarchist
    Monarchist 29 May 2016 22: 45
    0
    Everything is right. We are trying to do something like that: Krivdoza defenders, "progressive democratic forces" and others lackeys of Sam. Everyone who is not proud of their homeland, who is afraid of the "imperial heritage" is a degenerate! Monarchist