Transnistria Rus
The PMR Supreme Council presented the national idea in Russia
The existing obstacles to the Russian-Transdniestrian rapprochement in the form of features of the geographical position of the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic and the political situation in the region may disappear in the near future. This will happen as a result of either a change of political elites in Ukraine, or the emergence of conditions for obtaining access to the sea by the republic.
At the end of last year, parliamentary elections were held in Transnistria. The composition of the main representative body has undergone a major update, almost completely changed its leadership. The first foreign visit of the delegation of the Supreme Council of the PMR under the leadership of its chairman Vadim Krasnoselsky paid to Moscow. In addition to the traditional goals in such cases, to strengthen contacts with representative and executive bodies, civil society institutions of Russia, Transnistrian parliamentarians set themselves the main tasks of laying the foundations for launching large-scale projects of economic, cultural and educational cooperation, raising the level of political dialogue in the interest of stabilizing the situation inside the republic and on its outer borders. In total, 27 business meetings were held. They were held in the presidential administration, the Federation Council, the State Duma, the government apparatus, the Foreign Ministry, the Russian World Foundation and other venues. In particular, there were meetings with State Duma Vice Speaker Sergei Zheleznyak, Just Russia faction leader Sergei Mironov, Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the parliamentary Education Committee Vyacheslav Nikonov, member of the Committee on defense, LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Leonid Reshetnikov, and other influential ITIC.
Referendum law
Special attention was paid to the further integration of Transnistria with Russia into a single cultural, information space. Parliamentarians of the PMR indicated that the leadership of the still unrecognized republic should rely on the decisions of the 2006 referendum of the year and, accordingly, take measures to ensure that the republic joins the Customs Union and the Eurasian economic space. In private conversations, the guests emphasized: this course cannot be changed, because it is the will of the people of the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic, which is unshakable and should be heard as the voice of the Crimean people who spoke in favor of returning to Russia.
Transnistrian parliamentarians insist on a significant expansion of bilateral relations, including the creation of conditions for deep integration of the republic into the Russian legal space. In particular, representatives of the delegation of the Supreme Council of the PMR spoke of the need to build such a model of relations between Transnistria and Russian federal structures that would correspond to the usual practice of interaction of the center with the regions. Vadim Krasnoselsky, discussing the issues of the political status of the republic, called on his Russian colleagues to be more cautious with the concepts of “autonomy” and “federation” in relations with the TMR and Moldova. He emphasized that the foreign and domestic policy of the republic is based on the results of the 2006 referendum of the year, on which Transnistrians declared a course for independence and the subsequent free entry into Russia. “This is our national idea that binds the whole society, all political forces,” said the chairman of the Supreme Council. It was stressed that in the negotiation process to resolve the Moldovan-Transdniestrian conflict, Tiraspol has internationally recognized status on a par with Chisinau. And this means that any attempts to pre-determine the position of the republic within the framework of the "territorial integrity of Moldova" are unacceptable, which is what some Russian officials sin when they talk about the prospects for a settlement.
Script obstacles
To infinity, this situation cannot continue - the conflict must ultimately be resolved. The return to Moldova is rather obvious: the set of economic and political instruments for this is quite extensive. Supporters of such an option are also powerful. This is not so much Chisinau as Brussels and Washington. Yes, and in Russia there are guardians of the "territorial integrity of Moldova" from among the liberal pro-Western forces. With sufficient resources, opponents of the independent course of Tiraspol can create such economic and political conditions under which the MRT will be forced to give up its sovereignty. However, while Russia is in support of the legal rights of the people of Transnistria, this option is unlikely.
The second option involves the acquisition of state sovereignty of the PMR with its recognition by other states, at least Russia, according to the model of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, the implementation of such a scenario is very difficult due to a number of factors.
The first should be called geopolitical. The acquisition of sovereignty by the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic will provoke a strong negative reaction in the West, since it will mean the emergence of an active and industrially developed pro-Russian (and later, possibly Russian) enclave, advanced far to the south-west and ready to become an important defensive military strategic base against NATO.
It should be noted and geographical factors, especially the special position of the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic, sandwiched between Ukraine and Moldova - countries dominated by unfriendly towards Russia elites. At the same time, the republic has no access to the sea. So the neighbors do not cost anything to completely isolate Transnistria - it is enough to prohibit the movement of people and goods across their borders. This will most likely be done immediately after the recognition of the sovereignty of the PMR by Russia.
Legal factors are also relevant. The attainment of the sovereignty of the PMR implies a revision of the borders of Moldova, which in the West will immediately be declared a “gross violation” of international norms. This will justify the complete blockade of Transnistria.
It is worth bearing in mind the dependence of a significant part of the Russian establishment, first of all, the first wave oligarchy and the officialdom connected with it, on foreign states. And it is extremely difficult if it does not prohibit the adoption of a decision on the recognition of the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic.
We have to admit that, given the current state of affairs, to ensure such an option, and in the future, the survival of the republic as a sovereign state is very difficult. However, the situation may change. The main condition that gives Transnistria independence is either a change of political elites in Ukraine (in Moldova, probably, no government will agree to secession of Transnistria), or the republic’s access to the Black Sea.
Neighborhood prospects
The first of the possibilities suggests that as a result of the aggravation of economic problems in Ukraine, a political crisis will arise, as a result of which the country's power elite will be replaced. Unlike the 2013 – 2014 Maidan, the events will be much more spontaneous, since a significant part of the population will find themselves in a situation where further survival under the existing order in the country is impossible. It should be noted that the repressive measures taken today by the Ukrainian authorities are blocking the manifestation of protest sentiments. As a result, when the critical level is reached, when the loyal power structures will no longer be able to restrain the activity of the masses, a social explosion will occur. It is likely that in this case the foundations of the existing social system in Ukraine will be affected with the return of the country to the socialist path of development, which implies the nationalization of all strategic sectors, as well as large and even medium-sized businesses. With such a development of the situation, it will be very difficult to “saddle” the protest, even if you have significant financial and organizational resources (we are talking about foreign, primarily American “sponsors”). Independent from Western elites will come to power in Ukraine, which means that they are not quite acceptable for Washington and Brussels, because after many years of defeating and plundering the country by their appointees, the new leaders will announce slogans of liberation from foreign dominance in politics and economics. In these conditions, it remains to rely only on Russia. Actually, the course of rapprochement with the ethnically identical Russian people is likely to be proclaimed already at the stage of mass protests. Having come to power, the new elite will quickly realize that the scale of the destruction of the economy is monstrous and the country cannot overcome the crisis on its own. And the main role in saving Ukraine will be played by integration with Russia. The objective obstacle to these processes is the differences in currencies and legislation. Therefore, following the decision on the radical strengthening of the economic integration of Russia and Ukraine, the task of unifying the legal and monetary spheres will arise. Life will require convergence in these areas.
In the Ukrainian state today is a huge debt burden, which will grow. To a large extent, this overwhelming burden will be one of the causes of the social explosion. Observing the scale of borrowing of the current Kiev rulers, we can confidently believe that by the time of the change of power, the external debts will reach such a volume that Ukraine will not be able not only to repay, but even to service. It will be necessary either to declare a default with the hardest consequences for the people and the new elite, or to go towards economic and partially political integration with Russia, which in this case will be able to assume the repayment of a part of the obligations. For Russia, political integration with Ukraine will mean the revival of a single state, the reunification of a divided people. The authorities of both countries, who will go to this, will receive the absolute support of the population and will even partially acquire sacredness as collectors of the Russian lands. At the same time, liberal arguments about the high cost of integration with Ukraine (why should we feed them, etc.) will simply be swept away.
It is natural to believe that the West will condemn such processes with particular harshness. Will introduce new, much more serious than the current, sanctions against Russia. However, the war over Ukraine will not be solved. If the Russian authorities, having listened to liberal propagandists and are afraid of threats, will refuse to integrate, this will mean the loss of all the authority of the people, which will be the prologue to collapse.
Cherry on Kiev cake
Under these conditions, the appeal of Transnistria to Russia with a request to recognize its sovereignty and begin integration in any form (in particular, as a constituent of the Federation) will be entirely appropriate. And the process can be successfully accomplished, because against the background of such a large-scale event as the re-establishment of the Russian-Ukrainian union, the accession of the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic to it is a natural step that our authorities cannot abandon without losing credibility with the population. But the West will not be able to seriously respond, since all its levers of pressure on Moscow by that moment will already be involved. For the PMR, as a result of Russian-Ukrainian integration, reliable ground-based communication appears connecting the republic with Russia.
How real is the described scenario? Events in Ukraine are already developing on it. And do not pay attention to the speeches of individual groups of radicals. They are few. And the population of Ukraine has not yet spoken. Judging by the desperate reluctance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fight in the southeast of the country against their citizens, one can confidently assume that attempts to defame historical Russian-Ukrainian ties directed in Kiev have nothing to do with the real relations of our peoples. And when the current government is swept away, along with it the Nazi husk will also be a thing of the past.
If we estimate the time frame for the development of events according to such a scenario, we can talk about a maximum of several years.
The will of the people, the strength of circumstances
As for the second option, its implementation is possible only by military means. Its essence lies in the fact that the current Ukrainian authorities vitally need a new war. And one that would make the junta’s western curators fork out for a good deal. Otherwise, they cannot avoid a catastrophe - they themselves are unable to create anything, and therefore, to revive the Ukrainian economy. The war in the southeast has already lost relevance, especially since the Armed Forces of Russia are not there. But forcing our country to begin hostilities against Ukraine openly and preferably on a limited scale would be an ideal option for the Kiev authorities. They can do this by imposing a complete blockade on Transnistria. And then it remains for Russia to recognize the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic and in the future, at the request of its government, take measures to de-blockade the region, which is easiest to do through the territory of the Odessa region by landing an amphibious landing force. This is an extremely risky option in which our country can win only by taking an extremely tough position (in particular, declare its readiness to use nuclear weapons) and acting with exceptional determination. We will have to break through the corridor to the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic in a time frame that excludes the possibility of a timely NATO response - to put the West in front of a fait accompli. In this case, the probability of political integration of the PMR with Russia is very high. And Ukraine, even with large-scale Western support, will not succeed in avoiding the development of the situation according to the first option. Anyway, after a little more time, a social explosion is inevitable.
Thus, it can be stated: the statements of the leaders of the Parliament of the PMR that they will consistently seek sovereignty with a subsequent rapprochement with Russia, up to political integration with us, despite today's formally insurmountable obstacles, have very real grounds. This is not only the will of the people of the PMR, expressed at the 2006 referendum of the year, but also an objectively evolving geopolitical, economic and military-strategic situation in the region.
The existing obstacles to the Russian-Transdniestrian rapprochement in the form of features of the geographical position of the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic and the political situation in the region may disappear in the near future. This will happen as a result of either a change of political elites in Ukraine, or the emergence of conditions for obtaining access to the sea by the republic.
At the end of last year, parliamentary elections were held in Transnistria. The composition of the main representative body has undergone a major update, almost completely changed its leadership. The first foreign visit of the delegation of the Supreme Council of the PMR under the leadership of its chairman Vadim Krasnoselsky paid to Moscow. In addition to the traditional goals in such cases, to strengthen contacts with representative and executive bodies, civil society institutions of Russia, Transnistrian parliamentarians set themselves the main tasks of laying the foundations for launching large-scale projects of economic, cultural and educational cooperation, raising the level of political dialogue in the interest of stabilizing the situation inside the republic and on its outer borders. In total, 27 business meetings were held. They were held in the presidential administration, the Federation Council, the State Duma, the government apparatus, the Foreign Ministry, the Russian World Foundation and other venues. In particular, there were meetings with State Duma Vice Speaker Sergei Zheleznyak, Just Russia faction leader Sergei Mironov, Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the parliamentary Education Committee Vyacheslav Nikonov, member of the Committee on defense, LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Leonid Reshetnikov, and other influential ITIC.
Referendum law
Special attention was paid to the further integration of Transnistria with Russia into a single cultural, information space. Parliamentarians of the PMR indicated that the leadership of the still unrecognized republic should rely on the decisions of the 2006 referendum of the year and, accordingly, take measures to ensure that the republic joins the Customs Union and the Eurasian economic space. In private conversations, the guests emphasized: this course cannot be changed, because it is the will of the people of the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic, which is unshakable and should be heard as the voice of the Crimean people who spoke in favor of returning to Russia.
Transnistrian parliamentarians insist on a significant expansion of bilateral relations, including the creation of conditions for deep integration of the republic into the Russian legal space. In particular, representatives of the delegation of the Supreme Council of the PMR spoke of the need to build such a model of relations between Transnistria and Russian federal structures that would correspond to the usual practice of interaction of the center with the regions. Vadim Krasnoselsky, discussing the issues of the political status of the republic, called on his Russian colleagues to be more cautious with the concepts of “autonomy” and “federation” in relations with the TMR and Moldova. He emphasized that the foreign and domestic policy of the republic is based on the results of the 2006 referendum of the year, on which Transnistrians declared a course for independence and the subsequent free entry into Russia. “This is our national idea that binds the whole society, all political forces,” said the chairman of the Supreme Council. It was stressed that in the negotiation process to resolve the Moldovan-Transdniestrian conflict, Tiraspol has internationally recognized status on a par with Chisinau. And this means that any attempts to pre-determine the position of the republic within the framework of the "territorial integrity of Moldova" are unacceptable, which is what some Russian officials sin when they talk about the prospects for a settlement.
Script obstacles
To infinity, this situation cannot continue - the conflict must ultimately be resolved. The return to Moldova is rather obvious: the set of economic and political instruments for this is quite extensive. Supporters of such an option are also powerful. This is not so much Chisinau as Brussels and Washington. Yes, and in Russia there are guardians of the "territorial integrity of Moldova" from among the liberal pro-Western forces. With sufficient resources, opponents of the independent course of Tiraspol can create such economic and political conditions under which the MRT will be forced to give up its sovereignty. However, while Russia is in support of the legal rights of the people of Transnistria, this option is unlikely.
The second option involves the acquisition of state sovereignty of the PMR with its recognition by other states, at least Russia, according to the model of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, the implementation of such a scenario is very difficult due to a number of factors.
The first should be called geopolitical. The acquisition of sovereignty by the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic will provoke a strong negative reaction in the West, since it will mean the emergence of an active and industrially developed pro-Russian (and later, possibly Russian) enclave, advanced far to the south-west and ready to become an important defensive military strategic base against NATO.
It should be noted and geographical factors, especially the special position of the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic, sandwiched between Ukraine and Moldova - countries dominated by unfriendly towards Russia elites. At the same time, the republic has no access to the sea. So the neighbors do not cost anything to completely isolate Transnistria - it is enough to prohibit the movement of people and goods across their borders. This will most likely be done immediately after the recognition of the sovereignty of the PMR by Russia.
Legal factors are also relevant. The attainment of the sovereignty of the PMR implies a revision of the borders of Moldova, which in the West will immediately be declared a “gross violation” of international norms. This will justify the complete blockade of Transnistria.
It is worth bearing in mind the dependence of a significant part of the Russian establishment, first of all, the first wave oligarchy and the officialdom connected with it, on foreign states. And it is extremely difficult if it does not prohibit the adoption of a decision on the recognition of the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic.
We have to admit that, given the current state of affairs, to ensure such an option, and in the future, the survival of the republic as a sovereign state is very difficult. However, the situation may change. The main condition that gives Transnistria independence is either a change of political elites in Ukraine (in Moldova, probably, no government will agree to secession of Transnistria), or the republic’s access to the Black Sea.
Neighborhood prospects
The first of the possibilities suggests that as a result of the aggravation of economic problems in Ukraine, a political crisis will arise, as a result of which the country's power elite will be replaced. Unlike the 2013 – 2014 Maidan, the events will be much more spontaneous, since a significant part of the population will find themselves in a situation where further survival under the existing order in the country is impossible. It should be noted that the repressive measures taken today by the Ukrainian authorities are blocking the manifestation of protest sentiments. As a result, when the critical level is reached, when the loyal power structures will no longer be able to restrain the activity of the masses, a social explosion will occur. It is likely that in this case the foundations of the existing social system in Ukraine will be affected with the return of the country to the socialist path of development, which implies the nationalization of all strategic sectors, as well as large and even medium-sized businesses. With such a development of the situation, it will be very difficult to “saddle” the protest, even if you have significant financial and organizational resources (we are talking about foreign, primarily American “sponsors”). Independent from Western elites will come to power in Ukraine, which means that they are not quite acceptable for Washington and Brussels, because after many years of defeating and plundering the country by their appointees, the new leaders will announce slogans of liberation from foreign dominance in politics and economics. In these conditions, it remains to rely only on Russia. Actually, the course of rapprochement with the ethnically identical Russian people is likely to be proclaimed already at the stage of mass protests. Having come to power, the new elite will quickly realize that the scale of the destruction of the economy is monstrous and the country cannot overcome the crisis on its own. And the main role in saving Ukraine will be played by integration with Russia. The objective obstacle to these processes is the differences in currencies and legislation. Therefore, following the decision on the radical strengthening of the economic integration of Russia and Ukraine, the task of unifying the legal and monetary spheres will arise. Life will require convergence in these areas.In the Ukrainian state today is a huge debt burden, which will grow. To a large extent, this overwhelming burden will be one of the causes of the social explosion. Observing the scale of borrowing of the current Kiev rulers, we can confidently believe that by the time of the change of power, the external debts will reach such a volume that Ukraine will not be able not only to repay, but even to service. It will be necessary either to declare a default with the hardest consequences for the people and the new elite, or to go towards economic and partially political integration with Russia, which in this case will be able to assume the repayment of a part of the obligations. For Russia, political integration with Ukraine will mean the revival of a single state, the reunification of a divided people. The authorities of both countries, who will go to this, will receive the absolute support of the population and will even partially acquire sacredness as collectors of the Russian lands. At the same time, liberal arguments about the high cost of integration with Ukraine (why should we feed them, etc.) will simply be swept away.
It is natural to believe that the West will condemn such processes with particular harshness. Will introduce new, much more serious than the current, sanctions against Russia. However, the war over Ukraine will not be solved. If the Russian authorities, having listened to liberal propagandists and are afraid of threats, will refuse to integrate, this will mean the loss of all the authority of the people, which will be the prologue to collapse.
Cherry on Kiev cake
Under these conditions, the appeal of Transnistria to Russia with a request to recognize its sovereignty and begin integration in any form (in particular, as a constituent of the Federation) will be entirely appropriate. And the process can be successfully accomplished, because against the background of such a large-scale event as the re-establishment of the Russian-Ukrainian union, the accession of the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic to it is a natural step that our authorities cannot abandon without losing credibility with the population. But the West will not be able to seriously respond, since all its levers of pressure on Moscow by that moment will already be involved. For the PMR, as a result of Russian-Ukrainian integration, reliable ground-based communication appears connecting the republic with Russia.How real is the described scenario? Events in Ukraine are already developing on it. And do not pay attention to the speeches of individual groups of radicals. They are few. And the population of Ukraine has not yet spoken. Judging by the desperate reluctance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fight in the southeast of the country against their citizens, one can confidently assume that attempts to defame historical Russian-Ukrainian ties directed in Kiev have nothing to do with the real relations of our peoples. And when the current government is swept away, along with it the Nazi husk will also be a thing of the past.
If we estimate the time frame for the development of events according to such a scenario, we can talk about a maximum of several years.
The will of the people, the strength of circumstances
As for the second option, its implementation is possible only by military means. Its essence lies in the fact that the current Ukrainian authorities vitally need a new war. And one that would make the junta’s western curators fork out for a good deal. Otherwise, they cannot avoid a catastrophe - they themselves are unable to create anything, and therefore, to revive the Ukrainian economy. The war in the southeast has already lost relevance, especially since the Armed Forces of Russia are not there. But forcing our country to begin hostilities against Ukraine openly and preferably on a limited scale would be an ideal option for the Kiev authorities. They can do this by imposing a complete blockade on Transnistria. And then it remains for Russia to recognize the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic and in the future, at the request of its government, take measures to de-blockade the region, which is easiest to do through the territory of the Odessa region by landing an amphibious landing force. This is an extremely risky option in which our country can win only by taking an extremely tough position (in particular, declare its readiness to use nuclear weapons) and acting with exceptional determination. We will have to break through the corridor to the Transdnistrian Moldavian Republic in a time frame that excludes the possibility of a timely NATO response - to put the West in front of a fait accompli. In this case, the probability of political integration of the PMR with Russia is very high. And Ukraine, even with large-scale Western support, will not succeed in avoiding the development of the situation according to the first option. Anyway, after a little more time, a social explosion is inevitable.
Thus, it can be stated: the statements of the leaders of the Parliament of the PMR that they will consistently seek sovereignty with a subsequent rapprochement with Russia, up to political integration with us, despite today's formally insurmountable obstacles, have very real grounds. This is not only the will of the people of the PMR, expressed at the 2006 referendum of the year, but also an objectively evolving geopolitical, economic and military-strategic situation in the region.
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