Ulyukaev - “for”, Nabiullina - “against”
On the night of 10 on 11 March, a meeting on economic issues was held in the Kremlin. The meeting was attended by President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev and heads of departments of the economic bloc. According to some reports, Sergey Glazyev and Alexey Kudrin were also present at the meeting. The sources of the conference are called A. Ulyukaeva. The development of the country's economy and project financing programs were discussed at the night event. However, the economic bloc did not come to an agreement: Nabiullina spoke out against the state investment program proposed by Ulyukaev.
Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev "asks" for funding from Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina
Alexey Druzhinin / Press Service of the President of the Russian Federation / TASS
For two years, the authorities have been discussing how to “fix” the Russian economy suffering from low prices for mineral raw materials and sanctions from the Russian economy. The themes of import substitution and the development of small and medium-sized businesses do not leave the pages of the central press publications. Let us ask ourselves a simple question: Did someone first of all prevent the Kremlin from supporting its home economy? And if disturbed, then who? It was probably hampered by citizens who preferred to buy Turkish clothes, American processors, Japanese cars and Italian toilet bowls. And cheese, by the way, is also Italian. But citizens did not interfere with the Kremlin to drive crude oil "over the hill". We tend to call this policy, when oil actually changed to cheese and rags, “import-approval”. The notorious small business has been stifled for so many years by taxes and “contributions”, which often arose suddenly, that now there is little left of it.
In terms of the number of small enterprises, the Russian Federation is far behind the developed countries. We have on average 1000 (ten) small enterprises on 10 citizens, and in developed countries of Europe - no less than 35. The role of small business in social production also varies significantly: from 10-11% of GDP in Russia to 50-60% in developed countries of the world (Dadakhanova R. R. The current state of small business in Russia // Young scientist. 2013. No. 5. C 359).
According to Rosstat, on 1 January 2015 of the Year in Russia acts 4,5 million small and medium-sized businesses, which employ more than 18 million people (25% of the total number of employees).
In terms of the number of enterprises, the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sector showed a positive trend only for the categories of small and micro enterprises, moreover for 2013 and 2014. growth rates of this segment have slowed down significantly. The number of micro and small enterprises over 5 years increased by 28%: from 1644,3 thousand in 2010 year to 2103,8 thousand in 2014 year. The number of microenterprises in 2014 a year increased by almost a third compared to 2010 a year and amounted to 1868,2 thousand. However, the growth of microenterprises in 2014 year compared to 2013 a year amounted to only 40 thousand (2,2%).
It is also necessary to clarify that the growth in the number of small and micro enterprises occurred in the indicated years against the background of a decrease in the number of medium-sized enterprises (according to the results of 2014, 13,7 thousand, as in the 2013 year). True, almost two-fold reduction in the number of medium-sized enterprises in 2013 year compared to 2010 year (there were 25,2 thousand) statistics is explained by refining the list of enterprises taking into account the criteria for classification as SME turnover and capital share.
The average monthly salary of an employee is truly depressing: in 2014, it amounted to 19201 rubles. per month (total for small enterprises). On microenterprises and the one below - 15774 p. in months
The average number of employees per enterprise in 2014 was: 1) small and micro enterprises - 6 people; 2) medium enterprises - 121 people.
The main activities of the so-called small business in Russia are almost entirely trade and intermediary services.
For small enterprises, the lion’s share is taken by wholesale and retail trade, coupled with the repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, household goods and personal items (38,8%). Real estate operations, provision of services and rentals (20,4%) also have a significant share. Cumulatively in two articles - 59,2%.
Against the background of this transfusion, a small business in the field of agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing and fish farming has a total 2,9%. Manufacturing industries occupy 9,5%, transport and communications - only 6,8%.
In addition, in 2014, the ratio of profitable and unprofitable enterprises in the segment of micro, small and medium businesses was 80: 20. Every fifth company was unprofitable.
Why so bad?
At the end of 2012 and the first half of 2013, individual entrepreneurs left the business en masse, closed the enterprises. This was due to a sharp increase in government (in 2,3 times!) Insurance premium rate to the Pension Fund from the beginning of 2013 of the year (from 14.386 rubles to 32.479 rubles). In 2013, 965.089 SP was discontinued. Almost a million! Later, the number of IPs also decreased: in 2014, the number of discontinued activities was 500 thousand, in 2015, 400 thousand. The reduction of IP in 2014-2015. analysts explain the impact of the crisis.
As for the notorious import substitution, in 2015, the experts did not identify the relevant processes in most industries.
Experts from the Institute of Economic Policy. Gaidar Andrei Kaukin and Pavel Pavlov, notes IA "REGNUM"indicated that the policy of import substitution in Russia does not lead to large-scale results. Only in some industries there is a substitution of imported goods by domestic (weak): in the metallurgical complex, the textile industry and the automotive industry. But dependence on imports, including machinery and equipment, remained high. Low involvement in international value-added chains limits the possibility of increasing production in most processing industries, experts said.
The most noticeable scale of import substitution in the production of motor vehicles (the average annual share of imports in 2015 compared to 2014 was reduced by 22,5 pp), automotive components (by 5,7 pp), metals and metal ores (by 4,5 p. .), textile and haberdashery (7,8 pp), food (4,1 pp). True, the decline in the share of imports in the turnover of motor vehicles is due to the creation of joint assembly plants - that is, industries with the involvement of foreign partners (AvtoVAZ and Sollers).
At the same time, experts point out, there are a number of industries where the process is under way, the opposite of import substitution. This is primarily pharmaceuticals and the production of machinery and equipment. The average annual share of imports in the turnover of pharmaceutical and medical goods over the 2010-2015 years. fluctuated in the range of 50-60% (significant proportion); in 2015, it grew by 3,2 pp in relation to 2014, the devaluation of the ruble did not provide for the exclusion of imports: there are no Russian analogues for the spectrum of drugs and medical equipment.
In the machinery and equipment sector in 2012-2015 the increase in the average annual share of imports amounted to 17,6 pp Decrease in the average annual share of imports in 2015 by 1,1 p. it would be premature to interpret as a fracture of the medium-term trend.
“On the whole, the emerging picture indicates a low realization of the potential for import substitution,” the experts stated.
Some analysts write about the great possibilities of the programming market: they say, here "our" could turn around! Experts believe that there is simply no place to turn around in Russia: the market is very small.
President of Parallels Company Yakov Zubarev in an interview for Money magazine сказал about the prospects for import substitution in the IT industry the following: “I am very skeptical about import substitution in software in its current version and I think that it’s impossible to create something for the Russian market from scratch because it’s too small ... Operating systems cannot be made profitable especially for Russia. " To the question that officials refer to the experience of the PRC, he replied: “Because there is a huge domestic market, ten times ours. Everything! In addition, China is looking forward to 40-50 years, and in our country - to 3-5. ”
So what does the Russian government do? It consults.
13 March newspaper "Vedomosti" cited some details of a meeting on economic issues that took place in the Kremlin on the night of 10 on March 11.
President Putin has his assistant Andrei Belousov, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, his first deputy Igor Shuvalov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina, and Chairman of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova. The initiator of the meeting was Ulyukaev, a federal official told the publication. (By some messages, Sergey Glazyev and Alexey Kudrin were also present at the meeting.)
Ulyukaev tried to convince his colleagues of the need to stimulate economic growth at the expense of state investments, one of the forms of which would be project financing. This proposal was opposed by Nabiullina and Belousov, because they do not like the mechanism for selecting projects.
The Ministry of Finance has developed a methodology for assessing the “satisfactory financial condition of a borrower”: the value of the net assets of a company applying for financing and state guarantees cannot be less than capital. The borrower must be an operating company with assets that kills the essence of project financing, the manager of one of the state-owned banks said.
Another claim - to the banks. “Just in case they bring the project to the commission, get approval, and then don’t give out money for a long time,” the source told Vedomosti. According to him, the projects selected by the commission are much more than those actually financed.
The press service of the Central Bank did not respond to the request "Vedomosti". The representative of Sberbank (one of the key agents for the program) also did not respond to the request for publication. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the outcome of the meeting, the newspaper said.
Vedomosti recalls that under the project financing program in 2015, 42 projects were selected worth 347,3 billion rubles. Projects require 235,5 billion loans. This includes the creation of an icebreaker. fleet, airport in Rostov-on-Don, projects in the field of pharmaceuticals, import substitution in agriculture, electric networks, etc. As of March 4, 2016, the Central Bank refinanced loans under the program for only 69,2 billion rubles. (the words of Ulyukaev were cited by a representative of the Ministry of Economic Development).
Despite the urgency of the meeting, the “fate of the world” was hardly discussed there, the expert of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Innovative Development and Entrepreneurship, Roman Terekhin, notes. “Most likely, no important decisions should be expected right now, but they can be announced soon,” he said. "Expert". - At such urgent meetings, ready-made important decisions are rarely made. But they can be discussed and planned; this is a more likely scenario. ”
So, it is obvious that the “economic bloc” - for the umpteenth time - did not come to a single solution. One gets the impression that our great minds sitting in the ministerial chairs cannot agree among themselves. If they agree, then in the "project program" there will certainly be some kind of failure at the level of intermediate links (the banking system, for example). Meanwhile, citizens of the country continue to buy Chinese toys and boots, wear Chinese shorts, watch Korean TVs, put American processors in Taiwanese computers, and enjoy a slight increase in world crude oil prices. Our forecast: against the backdrop of the likely increase in oil prices in 2016 to 50, or even to 75 dollars per barrel, the talk about "import substitution" and the development of "small business" will quietly disappear.
Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev "asks" for funding from Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina
Alexey Druzhinin / Press Service of the President of the Russian Federation / TASS
For two years, the authorities have been discussing how to “fix” the Russian economy suffering from low prices for mineral raw materials and sanctions from the Russian economy. The themes of import substitution and the development of small and medium-sized businesses do not leave the pages of the central press publications. Let us ask ourselves a simple question: Did someone first of all prevent the Kremlin from supporting its home economy? And if disturbed, then who? It was probably hampered by citizens who preferred to buy Turkish clothes, American processors, Japanese cars and Italian toilet bowls. And cheese, by the way, is also Italian. But citizens did not interfere with the Kremlin to drive crude oil "over the hill". We tend to call this policy, when oil actually changed to cheese and rags, “import-approval”. The notorious small business has been stifled for so many years by taxes and “contributions”, which often arose suddenly, that now there is little left of it.
In terms of the number of small enterprises, the Russian Federation is far behind the developed countries. We have on average 1000 (ten) small enterprises on 10 citizens, and in developed countries of Europe - no less than 35. The role of small business in social production also varies significantly: from 10-11% of GDP in Russia to 50-60% in developed countries of the world (Dadakhanova R. R. The current state of small business in Russia // Young scientist. 2013. No. 5. C 359).
According to Rosstat, on 1 January 2015 of the Year in Russia acts 4,5 million small and medium-sized businesses, which employ more than 18 million people (25% of the total number of employees).
In terms of the number of enterprises, the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sector showed a positive trend only for the categories of small and micro enterprises, moreover for 2013 and 2014. growth rates of this segment have slowed down significantly. The number of micro and small enterprises over 5 years increased by 28%: from 1644,3 thousand in 2010 year to 2103,8 thousand in 2014 year. The number of microenterprises in 2014 a year increased by almost a third compared to 2010 a year and amounted to 1868,2 thousand. However, the growth of microenterprises in 2014 year compared to 2013 a year amounted to only 40 thousand (2,2%).
It is also necessary to clarify that the growth in the number of small and micro enterprises occurred in the indicated years against the background of a decrease in the number of medium-sized enterprises (according to the results of 2014, 13,7 thousand, as in the 2013 year). True, almost two-fold reduction in the number of medium-sized enterprises in 2013 year compared to 2010 year (there were 25,2 thousand) statistics is explained by refining the list of enterprises taking into account the criteria for classification as SME turnover and capital share.
The average monthly salary of an employee is truly depressing: in 2014, it amounted to 19201 rubles. per month (total for small enterprises). On microenterprises and the one below - 15774 p. in months
The average number of employees per enterprise in 2014 was: 1) small and micro enterprises - 6 people; 2) medium enterprises - 121 people.
The main activities of the so-called small business in Russia are almost entirely trade and intermediary services.
For small enterprises, the lion’s share is taken by wholesale and retail trade, coupled with the repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, household goods and personal items (38,8%). Real estate operations, provision of services and rentals (20,4%) also have a significant share. Cumulatively in two articles - 59,2%.
Against the background of this transfusion, a small business in the field of agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing and fish farming has a total 2,9%. Manufacturing industries occupy 9,5%, transport and communications - only 6,8%.
In addition, in 2014, the ratio of profitable and unprofitable enterprises in the segment of micro, small and medium businesses was 80: 20. Every fifth company was unprofitable.
Why so bad?
At the end of 2012 and the first half of 2013, individual entrepreneurs left the business en masse, closed the enterprises. This was due to a sharp increase in government (in 2,3 times!) Insurance premium rate to the Pension Fund from the beginning of 2013 of the year (from 14.386 rubles to 32.479 rubles). In 2013, 965.089 SP was discontinued. Almost a million! Later, the number of IPs also decreased: in 2014, the number of discontinued activities was 500 thousand, in 2015, 400 thousand. The reduction of IP in 2014-2015. analysts explain the impact of the crisis.
As for the notorious import substitution, in 2015, the experts did not identify the relevant processes in most industries.
Experts from the Institute of Economic Policy. Gaidar Andrei Kaukin and Pavel Pavlov, notes IA "REGNUM"indicated that the policy of import substitution in Russia does not lead to large-scale results. Only in some industries there is a substitution of imported goods by domestic (weak): in the metallurgical complex, the textile industry and the automotive industry. But dependence on imports, including machinery and equipment, remained high. Low involvement in international value-added chains limits the possibility of increasing production in most processing industries, experts said.
The most noticeable scale of import substitution in the production of motor vehicles (the average annual share of imports in 2015 compared to 2014 was reduced by 22,5 pp), automotive components (by 5,7 pp), metals and metal ores (by 4,5 p. .), textile and haberdashery (7,8 pp), food (4,1 pp). True, the decline in the share of imports in the turnover of motor vehicles is due to the creation of joint assembly plants - that is, industries with the involvement of foreign partners (AvtoVAZ and Sollers).
At the same time, experts point out, there are a number of industries where the process is under way, the opposite of import substitution. This is primarily pharmaceuticals and the production of machinery and equipment. The average annual share of imports in the turnover of pharmaceutical and medical goods over the 2010-2015 years. fluctuated in the range of 50-60% (significant proportion); in 2015, it grew by 3,2 pp in relation to 2014, the devaluation of the ruble did not provide for the exclusion of imports: there are no Russian analogues for the spectrum of drugs and medical equipment.
In the machinery and equipment sector in 2012-2015 the increase in the average annual share of imports amounted to 17,6 pp Decrease in the average annual share of imports in 2015 by 1,1 p. it would be premature to interpret as a fracture of the medium-term trend.
“On the whole, the emerging picture indicates a low realization of the potential for import substitution,” the experts stated.
Some analysts write about the great possibilities of the programming market: they say, here "our" could turn around! Experts believe that there is simply no place to turn around in Russia: the market is very small.
President of Parallels Company Yakov Zubarev in an interview for Money magazine сказал about the prospects for import substitution in the IT industry the following: “I am very skeptical about import substitution in software in its current version and I think that it’s impossible to create something for the Russian market from scratch because it’s too small ... Operating systems cannot be made profitable especially for Russia. " To the question that officials refer to the experience of the PRC, he replied: “Because there is a huge domestic market, ten times ours. Everything! In addition, China is looking forward to 40-50 years, and in our country - to 3-5. ”
So what does the Russian government do? It consults.
13 March newspaper "Vedomosti" cited some details of a meeting on economic issues that took place in the Kremlin on the night of 10 on March 11.
President Putin has his assistant Andrei Belousov, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, his first deputy Igor Shuvalov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev, Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina, and Chairman of the Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova. The initiator of the meeting was Ulyukaev, a federal official told the publication. (By some messages, Sergey Glazyev and Alexey Kudrin were also present at the meeting.)
Ulyukaev tried to convince his colleagues of the need to stimulate economic growth at the expense of state investments, one of the forms of which would be project financing. This proposal was opposed by Nabiullina and Belousov, because they do not like the mechanism for selecting projects.
The Ministry of Finance has developed a methodology for assessing the “satisfactory financial condition of a borrower”: the value of the net assets of a company applying for financing and state guarantees cannot be less than capital. The borrower must be an operating company with assets that kills the essence of project financing, the manager of one of the state-owned banks said.
Another claim - to the banks. “Just in case they bring the project to the commission, get approval, and then don’t give out money for a long time,” the source told Vedomosti. According to him, the projects selected by the commission are much more than those actually financed.
The press service of the Central Bank did not respond to the request "Vedomosti". The representative of Sberbank (one of the key agents for the program) also did not respond to the request for publication. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the outcome of the meeting, the newspaper said.
Vedomosti recalls that under the project financing program in 2015, 42 projects were selected worth 347,3 billion rubles. Projects require 235,5 billion loans. This includes the creation of an icebreaker. fleet, airport in Rostov-on-Don, projects in the field of pharmaceuticals, import substitution in agriculture, electric networks, etc. As of March 4, 2016, the Central Bank refinanced loans under the program for only 69,2 billion rubles. (the words of Ulyukaev were cited by a representative of the Ministry of Economic Development).
Despite the urgency of the meeting, the “fate of the world” was hardly discussed there, the expert of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Innovative Development and Entrepreneurship, Roman Terekhin, notes. “Most likely, no important decisions should be expected right now, but they can be announced soon,” he said. "Expert". - At such urgent meetings, ready-made important decisions are rarely made. But they can be discussed and planned; this is a more likely scenario. ”
So, it is obvious that the “economic bloc” - for the umpteenth time - did not come to a single solution. One gets the impression that our great minds sitting in the ministerial chairs cannot agree among themselves. If they agree, then in the "project program" there will certainly be some kind of failure at the level of intermediate links (the banking system, for example). Meanwhile, citizens of the country continue to buy Chinese toys and boots, wear Chinese shorts, watch Korean TVs, put American processors in Taiwanese computers, and enjoy a slight increase in world crude oil prices. Our forecast: against the backdrop of the likely increase in oil prices in 2016 to 50, or even to 75 dollars per barrel, the talk about "import substitution" and the development of "small business" will quietly disappear.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
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- especially for topwar.ru
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