The dollar and the euro go up for a reason
The dollar exchange rate at the beginning of trading rose to 31,66 ruble, but then began to decline. At the same time, the euro rose to 42,13 ruble, but then also slightly decreased.At a single MICEX 11: 30 trading session, the weighted average exchange rate for 1 dollars was calculated tomorrow by 31,5691 rubles, having increased by 33,83 kopecks. The euro exchange rate rose to the 42,0193 ruble by the same time, having increased by 14,42 kop.
These euro and dollar rates are set by the Central Bank for the weekend and Monday.
Analysts weakening the ruble was predicted at the beginning of the trading day. The reason for the increased flight of investors from risky assets was the deterioration of the external environment. Thus, during the meeting in Brussels of the heads of the EU countries, it became clear that negotiations aimed at resolving the debt crisis in the eurozone have significant difficulties.
Experts believe that the next negotiations will not produce results again, which will be a new shock for the world market. In addition, the banking sector in Europe puts additional pressure on the markets. For example, Moody's lowered the long-term ratings of Societe Generale, Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas.
Analysts of Zenit Bank noted: “Despite the ongoing tense political situation in Russia, the speculative game of reducing the ruble exchange rate is associated with the risks of increased interventions by the Central Bank in its defense. Therefore, there are no factors added for changes in the ruble exchange rate. Ruble due to this will continue to fluctuate around the mark 36 rub. "
Kirill Tishchenko, head of the analytical division of Akmos Trade Investment Company, believes that the Russian stock exchanges are untied from external News and markets, bidding is tied to possible opposition protests in the Russian Federation. The next rally will be held on Saturday, so market participants on Friday try to switch to cash and close their positions in order to protect themselves by Monday, the expert said.
A large number of traders buy euros and dollars to save money. Thus, on Monday, they are trying to enter the market, having new forces, or, having cash, to remain on the “bench”.
In the market of short-term ruble interbank credits (interbank loans), there was an increase in the liquidity deficit, which in turn caused a significant increase in interest rates. On overnight credits, the MosPrime Rate has risen to 6,06% per annum by 34 basis points. Since January 2010, this level is the maximum.
Mikhail Fedorov, an analyst at IC RIK-Finance, explained: “Thus, exchange rates are rising due to political tensions in Russia and Europe. A reduction in the volume of interbank lending and a growing liquidity deficit also contribute to the appreciation of currency. ”
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