What is the future of Iraq?
Despite all the assurances that the US will soon withdraw its troops from Iraqi territory, the Pentagon is increasingly expressing doubts about the appropriateness of such an action. He is also not sure that the Iraqi government will be able to maintain order in the country and properly resist extremist groups. Some American politicians are convinced that the Iraqi army is not ready for its own defense.
This is evidenced by the recent attempt on Qasim Fahdavi during his trip to Baghdad. Although the governor himself was not injured, three of his guards were injured. Soon, Fahdawi stated that, unlike Al Qaeda’s previous attacks, it was committed by his former allies who did not want a better future for Iraq.
This incident is a direct proof that the brutal bloody war that tormented Iraq only a few years ago can happen again. Only this time it will do without US troops who could provide significant assistance.
Before Barack Obama announced the withdrawal of troops from the territory of the Iraqi state, the US Defense Department planned to leave thousands of troops on 15 Iraqi territory, who would be responsible for further training of Iraqi soldiers, providing air protection, and maintaining the material and technical base of the Iraqi army.
And Stuart Bowen expressed the conviction that Iraq has big problems with air and border defense, has an imperfect supply system and will face difficulties in the process of state defense in case of withdrawal of American troops. He also said that the Iraqi government will inevitably be faced with the problem of replacing the structures of the American support system, intelligence and air defense with its similar structures.
According to Bowen, the American coaches have made great strides in training professionals for the Iraqi army, but the management of the material and technical component is one of the most vulnerable positions of the Iraqi special services.
The representative of the National Security Council, Tommy Vitor, noted that there are still some flaws in the training of the Iraqi army, as well as the fact that there are quite a large number of supporters of the US mission in Iraq after the end of 2011 in the US government. And just a month ago, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki announced the start of negotiations between the US and Iraq governments over the preparation of the Iraqi army after the end of the current year.
However, the presence of American troops is necessary not only to protect the Iraqi state from external enemies. At the moment, the religious situation is quite acute in the country. And the leaders of the state, instead of facilitating the settlement of religious conflicts, on the contrary, try to kindle them. At least, this is evidenced by their actions. More recently, new and new measures are being taken against the Baathists in the country. After the overthrow of the regime of Hussein, the Ba'ath representatives became much smaller, but they did not die, but moved to neighboring countries. The main part of them remained in Iraq. Recent weeks have been marked by a large number of Baathist (Sunni) arrests. And since most of the Iraqi government are Shiites, such actions are more like a total witch hunt.
In addition, Saudi Arabia and Iran can easily enter into this interfaith conflict. This is evidenced by some signs of the preparation of two regional heavyweights for armed clashes on Iraqi territory after the withdrawal of American troops from there.
It is clear that in the event of incitement of this conflict, that small part of the American servicemen who remain in Iraq will fall into the line of fire. A month ago, one of the representatives of the clergy Muqtada ab-Sadr made a sharp statement that the Americans are invaders, with whom it is necessary to fight. And these are not empty words, the threat is real, it’s worth remembering about the bloody attacks on American soldiers by the Mahdi army.
Ab-Sadr and his supporters also supported the government of al-Maliki in his arrest of Sunnis, which, in turn, provoked a rather sharp response of the latter. Sunni leaders are calling for the creation of an autonomous region consisting of Sallahadin, Nineveh and Anbar. Of course, the Iraqi government did not like it, it accused the Sunnis of trying to weaken the power of the center.
But if, nevertheless, this autonomous region is created, then a religious schism will actually occur within the country. And then nothing will prevent Iranian Shiites and Arabian Sunnis from strenuously supporting "their" people on the territory of Iraq. And one of the Iraqi officials even stated that he had seen documents that directly indicate the beginning of the financing of Iraqi Sunnis by Saudi Arabia.
Needless to say, even the slightest attempt by Arabia to strengthen its position will in no way be able to arrange Iran, whose government has extensive ties with the Iraqi government and militant leaders.
Analysts argue that Washington had a chance to keep the Iranian influence, but was very busy searching for a way out, and as a result, al-Maliki’s government’s dependence on Iran. And all this is more like not support, but the beginning of the second occupation of the Iraqi state.
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