Military Review

Moscow - Tokyo: continuing the dialogue

35
February 15 in Tokyo, a meeting of Deputy Foreign Ministers of Japan and Russia. The Russian Federation was represented by Deputy Minister Igor Morgulov, and the host party was authorized by the government, Tikahito Harada. According to media reports, the meeting lasted five hours, and according to its results, the main result was an agreement on the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Tokyo, which is scheduled for mid-April. In the details of the diplomatic kitchen citizens of the two countries do not yet devote, but it is clear that if negotiations are under way, then there is something to discuss.




Apparently, there will soon be more clarity regarding the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Russia. A likely visit, of course, since a large number of unforeseen circumstances, as everyone understands, can make it impossible at the last moment, as, for example, at the end of 2014, President Putin’s visit to Tokyo did not take place.

Even in the past, before the Ukrainian crisis, Russian-Japanese relations were not limited to the issue of a peace treaty and the southern Kuril Islands. Now Abe acts as a kind of messenger from the whole Big Seven. For a number of reasons, the Prime Minister of Japan is much better suited for this purpose than any of the European politicians who have repeatedly seen Putin during these two years.

Already announced that the visit of the Japanese prime minister will have an unofficial status. That is, Shinzo's friend arrives to a friend, Vladimir, to admire Sochi's beauties, and at the same time talk about business. However, the most important decisions are made just in such "informal" conversations. The fact that the two leaders can say to each other directly can be very different from the numerous diplomatic messages that Tokyo and Moscow exchange in these months. So according to the results of such a large meeting, we will most likely see a peculiar feature not only under bilateral relations, but under the whole Russia-G-7 plane as a whole.

The main topics for a possible discussion between Putin and Abe are already clear: Ukraine; Near East; loans that Japanese banks can provide to Russia; US missile defense facilities; North Korea; and of course, the South Kuril Islands and the peace treaty. Perhaps, the topic of the gas pipeline from Sakhalin to Hokkaido and to the central regions of Japan will rise again.

One of the main themes of the Russian-Japanese dialogue is, of course, Korea. The situation on the Korean Peninsula remains tense and by all indications it will remain so in the future. In fact, South Korea has begun the blockade of the Kaesong industrial area, which is only economic so far, but they can start shooting from large calibers at any time. Kaeson is a kind of analogue of West Berlin in Asia, this territory is the only major trophy of the North in the Korean War, on which the largest joint project of the DPRK and the Republic of Korea has been operating for a long time. Now the remnants of ties between the two parts of the peninsula are broken, and the United States plans to deploy the region’s largest forces since the Third Crisis of the Taiwan Strait. In this sense, Moscow is valuable for interested players, as a party that not only has access to Pyongyang, but does not demonstrate a clear interest in the existence of the North Korean regime.

The second most important issue that the two leaders will discuss during a possible spring meeting is the southern Kuril Islands. The Japanese press is now expressing the view that the economic difficulties that have forced Putin to go for a new privatization of state assets may also affect his position. It is difficult to say how justified these discussions are. If the Japanese prime minister fails to achieve a compromise from Putin on the southern Kuril Islands, then further negotiations at this level automatically lose their meaning. And Putin is not planning to yield specifically on the Kuril issue.

Changing attitudes in the Japanese press and society as a whole is also important. If earlier in the media and blogs it was said only about the need to conduct a “close dialogue” on the Kuril problem, now more and more often there are calls to be “harder” with Russia. Some observers directly suggest taking an example from Ankara, Kiev and Riyadh. While this position has not become generally accepted, but the drift in its direction clearly takes place. Incidentally, patriotic and pro-American circles are united in Japan, and the official Tokyo’s position cannot but take into account their position. While the fate of the entire line of negotiations hangs in the balance. In case of escalation in the Ukrainian or Syrian-Turkish direction, it will be frozen. For all the significance of the Russian direction, cooperation with the United States is much more important for Tokyo.
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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 16 February 2016 06: 41
    11
    According to media reports, the meeting lasted five hours and following its results, the main result was an agreement on a visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Tokyo, which is scheduled for mid-April.... 5 hours persuaded that Lavrov would come ...
    1. 33 Watcher
      33 Watcher 16 February 2016 07: 51
      11
      -Hello!
      Hello!
      - We are here on a friendly visit to you ...
      We are listening.
      - Talk about economics, about cooperation ...
      Yes, yes, of course, we are very pleased to hear you carefully.
      - And the Kuril Islands, do not give ..?
      Нет!
      - Well then, back to the agenda ...
      .
      1. Zoldat_A
        Zoldat_A 16 February 2016 09: 45
        +6
        Quote: Observer 33
        ... we are very pleased to hear you carefully.
        - And the Kuril Islands, do not give ..?
        Нет!
        1. Weyland
          Weyland 16 February 2016 23: 02
          0
          It's not so bad that the war cancels any treaties!
          The trouble is that unconditional surrender cancels even succession - so let them rejoice that Japan generally exists as a state!
    2. Amurets
      Amurets 16 February 2016 09: 47
      +4
      Quote: parusnik
      5 hours persuaded that Lavrov would come ...

      No! Not so. Knowing the Japanese politeness, I think that the Japanese representative bowed for three hours to talk to Morgulov and bowed for two hours that he was not sent, and the negotiations themselves lasted no more than a minute. Morgulov deigned to say: "YES."
    3. siberalt
      siberalt 16 February 2016 13: 34
      +1
      And why not meet this Shinza in Yalta? It would be twice symbolic. Maybe less about the Kuril Islands blather. laughing
      1. Kasym
        Kasym 16 February 2016 23: 22
        0
        In my opinion, the Kuril Islands are rather an internal theme of Japan. Japanese politicians are well aware that it is useless to raise this topic. Another thing is that in Asia, because of the disputed territories, military tension may arise. And it seems to me that Tokyo understands that there are practically no allies in the region. Everyone has a grudge against the Japanese occupation, for which they have not even apologized. It is very difficult to rely only on the United States, judging by the recent events, when they abandoned their "satellites". Is this why Abe is looking for constant contact and, perhaps, some kind of political rapprochement? Probes the soil.
        On the other hand. If you look at the Japanese economy, it is complementary to the Russian one. Sanctions can only spur Japanese businessmen. And Japan is one of the world's largest debtors. And here the prospects are huge, profits and economic growth, which has long been absent in Japan. I once noticed that the Japanese even want to throw a gas pipeline. Toyota just aggressively throws competitors in the EAEU. Camry for less than 20 thousand green - this is compared with competitors ... do not dance nearby. They built some of the largest factory (Europe) in Russia on glass and something else (Kamatsu excavators, if memory serves).
        Therefore, Abe has a double interest in the Russian Federation. Economics and Security. Moscow should take advantage of this. hi
  2. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 16 February 2016 06: 47
    +6
    Listen, they squinted through life, not to see Our Kuril Islands as your neck !!! and this is the end of the market!
  3. Arktidianets
    Arktidianets 16 February 2016 06: 48
    +5
    It looks like there is an agreement on the signing of a peace treaty, but the "Kuril issue" is a stumbling block, they once linked the signing of the treaty with the return of the islands and this position is now like a bone in their throat, the understanding that they will not see the islands and the desire to protect themselves signing the treaty puts the Japanese government in an awkward position.
  4. aba
    aba 16 February 2016 06: 58
    12
    Hmm ... That is, Russia turns out to be the only country in which it is possible to demand a revision of the conditions of the world after WWII?
    However?!
  5. inkass_98
    inkass_98 16 February 2016 07: 10
    +5
    Quote: aba
    now more and more calls are heard to be “tougher” with Russia

    As soon as the Japanese take this path, they can immediately forget about the negotiations, and about the visit of the Dark One, and at the same time about the gas pipeline that they need so much, but we don’t really.
    1. aba
      aba 16 February 2016 08: 10
      +4
      It's obvious. I'm just talking about a general tendency: it turns out that the Americans are the winners, then the main battles took place not on the territory of the USSR. Look, our T24 TV channel is broadcasting the program "The main tank battles", as they show how the Canadians with the Germans 10 tanks against 10, then the French and the British kill the Germans and so on. In short, some kind of crap ...
      1. Boos
        Boos 16 February 2016 10: 32
        +4
        Brad Peet clearly showed in the last comic, how America in Europe smashed stupid "Jerry", kicking "Tigers" ...
        1. Bath
          Bath 16 February 2016 10: 52
          +1
          Yes, a very historical film (Rage)))) laughing Here, then, in my eyes, with surprise, they climbed out one tank in the course of the regiment of Germans;
  6. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 16 February 2016 08: 09
    +4
    Some kind of surrealism. The Japs have a public debt in the amount of their budgets, and they offer loans to us. Why?
    And who will talk about serious matters with the Sixes? They, as I understand it, made it clear to them that while the merikos are in charge, they will not discuss any islands.
    Or is it not clear? Did diplomats mess up something?
  7. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 16 February 2016 08: 20
    +2
    The main topics for a possible discussion between Putin and Abe are clear right now: Ukraine; Near East; loans that Japanese banks can provide to Russia; American missile defense facilities; North Korea; and of course, the southern Kuril Islands and the peace treaty.

    Of all these topics, Japan has a direct relationship and opportunities only to one thing - loans that Japanese banks can provide. The remaining topics (I do not want to talk about territories once again) are not in the competence of Japan, and even in the absence of the ability to somehow influence these issues. Therefore, the Kuril theme will be exaggerated again, and the rest to create significance.
  8. Balagan
    Balagan 16 February 2016 08: 22
    +9
    Short memory of the descendants of the samurai.
    1. Red_Hamer
      Red_Hamer 16 February 2016 10: 54
      0
      It is necessary to remind periodically.
    2. Bath
      Bath 16 February 2016 10: 54
      +1
      Well, why the short Damansky in 1991 gave potih how many years there it was just nothing
      1. Weyland
        Weyland 16 February 2016 23: 06
        0
        Quote: Bath
        Damansky in 1991 gave potih


        Comparison does not steer! The river border almost always runs in the middle of the fairway - and in 1858 we included a border clause in the contract along the Chinese coast, because they didn’t want that in the Chinese half of the Amur any anglo american trash (which China could not prohibit anything at that time). Now there is no such risk!
  9. Red_Hamer
    Red_Hamer 16 February 2016 08: 24
    +5
    Complete and unconditional surrender - This is the cessation of the existence of the subject of international relations, the dismantling of the former state, the loss of its sovereignty and all power powers that pass to the victors who determine the conditions of peace and the post-war structure. In place of the former state, a new subject of international law arises. DOT!
    and of course, the southern Kuril Islands and the peace treaty.
    One act is already there and is not subject to revision! Who "Complete and unconditional surrender, Japan!
  10. Million
    Million 16 February 2016 08: 30
    +5
    No need to flirt with narrow-eyed, they do not understand this. The answer should be tough, once and for all: no!
    1. aba
      aba 16 February 2016 08: 32
      +5
      Most likely they understand this ... But there are still those who incite them to us.
      Or are you sure that they themselves are so brave ?!
      1. Bath
        Bath 16 February 2016 10: 55
        +2
        and they’re not just Yankees and not Tommy, they’ve never been cowards
    2. Homo
      Homo 16 February 2016 11: 31
      -1
      Quote: Million
      No need to flirt with narrow-eyed, they do not understand this. The answer should be tough, once and for all: no!

      This does not happen in diplomacy. That is why they and diplomats would have to talk for a long time and politely send, and even so that the messenger would not be offended.
  11. Riv
    Riv 16 February 2016 08: 32
    +3
    And why exactly the Sochi beauties? In the Crimea, too, beautiful. Let the Japanese come there.
  12. Evgeniy667b
    Evgeniy667b 16 February 2016 08: 32
    +5
    "Do not sell your land for money and gold. Otherwise, you will receive a curse! For yourself and your family! Protect your land from overt and hidden enemies."
    Slavic-Aryan Vedas as a reminder for negotiation processes.
  13. Belousov
    Belousov 16 February 2016 09: 50
    +1
    Nobody will give them the Kuril Islands, so what else to talk about? About loans from Japanese banks? So this is clearly not the business of the Foreign Minister. For this, the Ministry of Finance exists. So they will meet, reproach in the direction of the journalists and scatter.
  14. fa2998
    fa2998 16 February 2016 10: 48
    +4
    Quote: Belousov
    Nobody will give them the Kuril Islands, so what else to talk about?

    Something I do not like these negotiations! "... and of course the South Kuril Islands and the peace treaty" - this is from the text, the program of negotiations. WHAT SENDING THEM BY THE FOREST on the phone is not enough! They will hide behind the doors, you never know what they will solve. For 25 years we have not gained ANYTHING through negotiations, but we have lost thousands of square kilometers of water and a number of islands (including Damansky) in the Barents Sea, the Beging Sea, the Amur, and a number of islands (including Damansky). , where the topic is discussed-CHECK all points about the Kuril Islands! hi
    1. Bath
      Bath 16 February 2016 10: 57
      +1
      in and I immediately remembered about Damansky and about the Barents Sea and the bear reminded)))
  15. triglav
    triglav 16 February 2016 11: 58
    +1
    Little Americans bombed narrow-eyed, God forgive me. All the states are friends. Go ahead. And in the Kuril Islands you were once offered concessions. They didn’t want to. Then free.
  16. Litsvin
    Litsvin 16 February 2016 14: 02
    +3
    What is the dialogue "Moscow-Tokyo" ??? !!!. The Orthodox Slavs, who lie in the hills of Manchuria and at the bottom of the Tsushima glitch, have apparently been forgotten. Someone has a short historical memory. With Asians, and especially such as the Japanese, no dialogue can lead to anything. They only understand the language of power. Stalin spoke about this already. Russia will stand firmly on its feet in the Far East - the Slavs will not need any dialogues for 1000 years. Russia will stand "sluggishly and uncertainly" - the Japanese will chop off the coast of the Pacific Ocean right up to the Bering Strait, and no dialogue will save it.
  17. Evil 55
    Evil 55 16 February 2016 16: 01
    0
    Russia-Tokyo .... Continuation of the dialogue with the cunning and funny ..
    1. Litsvin
      Litsvin 16 February 2016 21: 56
      0
      At one time, during the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese War, the Russian society perceived the Japanese as "some kind of Asian animals, small and cowardly." The press also spread this topic. The war showed something else - they are small, but vicious, cunning and cunning. And, in general, not cowards.

      True, there were also comical cases. A report of one Cossack centurion about a meeting with a real ninja has been preserved. It tells how the Cossacks settled down by the fire for the night and cooked food. Suddenly a "devil" jumped out of the bushes, dressed in all black, who began to jump wildly, wave his arms and hiss. One of the Cossacks struck the Japanese with a fist in the ear "after which he died in speed."
  18. serg2108
    serg2108 16 February 2016 16: 52
    0
    a bunch of blocks, to these Japs from under the tail of a wild dog, .. and not the Kuril Islands for once specifically send and there is nothing to discuss with them am
  19. Rakti-kali
    Rakti-kali 16 February 2016 17: 28
    0
    Quote: Volzhanin
    Some kind of surrealism. The Japs have a public debt in the amount of their budgets, and they offer loans to us. Why?

    Since the state debt is one thing, and the money supply in circulation / in banks is another. Japan really has a problem with the money of banks - there is nowhere to put it, because putting it into circulation in Japan itself will bring down the yen, and they cannot repay the public debt, because this money does not belong to the state.
  20. nazar_0753
    nazar_0753 16 February 2016 20: 00
    -2
    If the Japanese prime minister does not succeed in reaching a compromise on the southern Kuril Islands from Putin, then further negotiations at this level will automatically lose their meaning.

    We have already offered them a compromise in the form of a “brotherly” division of the four Kuril islands: we have two big ones, and they two are small. And they do not agree, their opinion is that a compromise is for us to give them everything with a bow. And this can only be called a compromise by a person whose head exists only to have
  21. koroed
    koroed 16 February 2016 21: 54
    +1
    now more and more calls are heard to be “tougher” with Russia. - apparently, they forgot about the events of the past past: earthquake, tsunami, Fukushima. After all, it might shake again, only harder, since they do not understand.
  22. to persuade
    to persuade 16 February 2016 23: 35
    +1
    Quote: Million
    No need to flirt with narrow-eyed, they do not understand this. The answer should be tough, once and for all: no!

    Maybe we will limit ourselves to the Japanese? And then, somehow rudely, imagine that both our Sakhalin Koreans and G. Siyatvind are sitting on the forum ..