Experts questioned the news of the collapsing "Phobos"
Ted Molchan, a Canadian scientist, an expert in the field of spacecraft surveillance, reports that he recorded the separation and destruction of two fragments from the station. The expert makes conclusions about the beginning of the destruction process "Phobos-Grunt", which is currently in near-earth orbit.Experts observe a steady decline in the station, according to data on the fourth of December, it continues. Regarding the statement, experts cannot determine with certainty from which part of the Phobos-Grunt apparatus the observed fragments have separated.
What is the probability of destruction of the station? With this question, the correspondent Vesti.Ru turned to Alexander Rodin, a senior researcher in the department of planetary physics from the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
“Of course, it is theoretically possible to suggest such a scenario. The device is in the on state, and how it works, we do not know. The control system of the station could easily give a command to separate the upper stage. Although this option is a big question. The control system cannot issue any command at the moment, but theoretically, I repeat, this is not excluded. This fact is easily verified, at the moment our space monitoring systems and the US are monitoring the station, ”the expert answered.
“The assumption that the station began to fall apart due to the effects of the atmosphere is even less likely. If it had entered the dense layers of the atmosphere, there would have been an increase in temperature and the destruction of any parts of the apparatus. The station, of course, is declining, since it was initially in a low orbit, but destruction due to interaction with the atmosphere is unlikely. It is difficult to predict the time of entering Phobos-Grunt into the dense layers of the atmosphere because of the constant change in density at those altitudes where the station is located. It is considered that the descent will occur within a month, ”concluded Alexander Rodin.
Yuri Karash, a corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics, in an interview with the journalist of the Vesti FM radio station, commented on the statement about the collapsing station as "extremely intricate." “Suppose, at the moment, the station is on the ground, gravity is acting on it, here it is possible to predict that something will fall off from the station sooner or later. But in space it is not. To begin the destruction, it is necessary to apply some force. What power? Where does she come from? This is either a collision of the device with a fragment of space debris, or it has decreased so much that it began to collapse due to the pressure of the atmosphere. The latter option is not possible earlier than in January. In this period, the device will presumably begin to enter the dense layers of the atmosphere, ”said Karash.
The launch of the Phobos-Grunt vehicle took place on the night of November 9 from the Baikonur Cosmodrome. After the unit had separated from the Zenith launch vehicle, there was a failure to turn on the engines leading it to a higher orbit, from which it should have headed for Mars. In the tasks assigned to the station, there was a landing on the satellite of Mars - Phobos, sampling of soil and their delivery for research on the ground. The estimated time spent in flight would be about two and a half years.
The Phobos-Grunt, which is in Earth orbit, has gradually decreased by almost fifty kilometers. According to the calculations of specialists of the Russian rocket and space industry, the apparatus will descend from orbit in January next year, from the sixth to the end of the month.
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