Military Review

The Russian economy has grown out of dependence on oil expor

98



A graph showing the change in world oil prices and gross domestic product of the Russian Empire / USSR / Russian Federation, starting with 1860 and ending with 2012, came into my order.

This graph is particularly interesting and relevant in the light of the endless conversations of Ukrainian maydanutyh and Russian liberals "the price of oil will fall - Russia will fall apart"



As you can see, the graph is made by Western burzhinami (and with their characteristic phraseological units and terms), so that later yelling that the data are forged by “Kremlin propaganda” will not work.

Black denotes the dynamics of changes in the price of oil, blue denotes the change in GDP of the Republic of Ingushetia / USSR / RF (in dollars 2012 of the year).

This schedule allows us to draw several conclusions regarding different events and time periods.

1. Period from 1860 to 1914 years. As we see, growth is very slow, so the monarchist tales that Russia under tsarism was a “dynamically developing country” are tales that have no basis. And if they are outraged strongly loud, then I will make a separate article, where the facts will break these myths to pieces.

Particularly obvious is the lag of the Russian Empire at that time, if we compare it with the explosive growth of production in the nineteenth century as a result of the industrial revolution in England, France and Germany. If someone wants to learn more about this, I recommend reading the report of the Vernadsky Commission, and not the writings of modern monarchists.

2. Period from 1922 to 1940 years. Dynamic growth as a result of first GOELRO and NEP, and then industrialization.

As I already wrote, the leadership of the USSR very competently used the Great Depression in the USA, and while the factories were closing there, in the USSR they opened.

It was the explosive growth of production as a result of Soviet industrialization that made it possible to create an industrial potential that was sufficient to repel the Nazi invasion. If Russia developed at the “royal” pace, then Hitler would have easily reached the Urals.

3. Period from 1941 to 1945 years. As you can see, the fall of the USSR GDP during the Great Patriotic War was relatively insignificant - no more than 20%. And by the end of the war, this fall was almost eliminated.

This is despite the conduct of a total war of high intensity, general mobilization, the Nazis seized the vast majority of the European part of the USSR, a large-scale transfer of production to the Urals, the use of female and child labor due to the catastrophic shortage of workers.

The current Kiev regime in two years brought Ukraine to a loss of more than 50% of GDP. If in the 2013 year, GDP was about 177 billion dollars, in 2015 it fell below 80 billion.

The lying junta is trying to write it off to war, but

a) the conflict in the Donbass is fought with low intensity, there is not even a question of any total war;

b) production on the territory of the remnants of Ukraine are intact, no one is bombing them (except for raider attacks by the “patriots” who follow the orders of the oligarchs), there is no sea blockade either, no one drowns convoys or blows up trains;

c) there is no general mobilization;

d) there is no shortage of workers, on the contrary, huge unemployment (including hidden).

So the overwhelming part of the fall in Ukraine’s GDP is the result of “European integration” (which all normal economists, starting with Glazyev and ending with me), warned them for years and the incompetence of the puppet junta. Moreover, I am deeply convinced that by destroying many branches of the Ukrainian economy, the puppet regime fulfills the order of its Western masters to destroy their competitors.

4. Period from 1948 to 1980 years.
We again see a stable dynamic development of the economy of the USSR.

Firstly, what is striking is CRIMINAL. The only period of a slight decline was after the financial reform of 1960-61 of the year, when market elements were strengthened in the economy of the USSR.

Secondly, strong and steady growth most of this time occurred with low oil prices. Moreover, when oil prices jumped upwards, no acceleration of development occurred.

So the statement that the USSR was economically inefficient and dependent on oil prices is an obvious lie. And its collapse is not the result of economic inefficiency (from the graph we see that, on the contrary, it’s quite effective), but the result of the betrayal of the “elites”.

This is confirmed by the fact that the fall in USSR GDP occurs on the chart only after Gorbachev came to power.

5. Period from 1991 to 1998 years. The period of Yeltsin's rule and total liberal sabbath. The continuous decline of the economy.

And now the people who are responsible for the gulf and the devastation of those years, criticize Putin’s economic policy, give advice (which no one asks for them) and yell “let me steer again”.

As the street kids in the “Shkid Republic” said, “And what about hu-hu not ho-ho?”.

6. Period from 1998 to 2012 year. Putin's board / Medvedev. Explosive growth, largely offsetting the fall of the liberal nineties. And here, too, there are several interesting patterns.

First, as a result, they arrived at indicators that are worse than if no one had collapsed in the USSR. Just continue the line of the Soviet trend to be sure. Why ruined? Unclear.

Secondly, the economic policy of the Kremlin during this period can safely be called "state capitalism". What proves my theoretical calculations still 2007-2009's, that the state capital is a much more effective form of economic policy than market liberalism, leading to the domination of transnational companies (TNCs).

Thirdly, yes, it is obvious that high oil prices during this period helped faster growth. But, if the dependence was direct (according to the liberals and the "guard patriots"), then with the fall in oil prices and the fall in GDP would be proportional.

Over the past couple of years, oil prices have fallen by more than three times, and GDP has decreased by a couple of percent. How so? We look at the tablet with the "Huspert".

The Russian economy has grown out of dependence on oil expor


The share of oil in Russia's GDP is about 9%. Simple arithmetic shows (you have not forgotten how to multiply and divide?) That its fall should have caused a drop in GDP of about 6% three times. Maximum.

But it really fell even less. Why? And because other non-commodity sectors were growing at that time. What, of course, no belolentochny horse never recognizes.

Even if the price of oil in the world drops to zero, and trade in it stops completely, then Russia's GDP will drop even a maximum of a couple of percent. And, most likely, it will be mostly compensated by growth in other industries, including the same by import substitution (which the weak ruble helps a lot - why, as I have already explained in previous publications).

Therefore, if you grow wet dreams of the collapse of the Russian Federation as a result of fluctuations in the price of oil - you will face a cruel bummer.
Author:
Originator:
http://jpgazeta.ru/aleksandr-rodzhers-rossiyskaya-ekonomika-pererosla-zavisimost-ot-nefteeksporta/
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  1. IMHO
    IMHO 2 February 2016 12: 40
    -2
    We look at the rating of the largest companies in Russia and conclude what GDP depends on.
    http://riarating.ru/infografika/20140130/610607304.html
    1. iConst
      iConst 2 February 2016 12: 46
      +4
      Quote: IMHO
      http://riarating.ru/infografika/20140130/610607304.html
      - Modestly silent about gas. And its value, by the way, is tied to the cost of oil.
      1. Tor5
        Tor5 2 February 2016 12: 49
        +6
        Not everything is so straightforward, although in some ways the author is right.
        1. jjj
          jjj 2 February 2016 13: 02
          +2
          Quote: Tor5
          Modestly silent about gas. And its value, by the way, is tied to the cost of oil.

          Gas sales are many times less than oil sales and do not so noticeably affect the country's wealth growth.
          And in terms of industrialization. At the same time, Germany developed intensively. The development of industry in both Germany and the USSR was funded by certain circles in the United States in order to push these two worlds into war, and to ensure their world domination forever. The Germans clearly went according to plan. But in the USSR, as always, Western programs did not work at all. And although American financial circles, nevertheless, pushed Hitler to attack the USSR, but the States had to consider the USSR as their ally in the anti-Hitler coalition
          1. iConst
            iConst 2 February 2016 14: 23
            +2
            Quote: jjj
            Gas sales are many times less than oil sales and do not so noticeably affect the country's wealth growth.
            - Bring tsifiri - times ...

            Russia's revenues from gas exports in January-September 2015 amounted to $ 31,331 billion, which is 29% less than the figure for the same period in 2014, according to the Federal Customs Service.

            Russia's income from oil exports during the same period decreased 1,74 times compared to the same period last year - to $ 69,576 billion.


            Those. ~ 1/2 for money (more than 31 lard) - garbage. At times ...
            Before about "times" tryndet even to know the topic would not hurt, it would.
            1. kitamo
              kitamo 2 February 2016 15: 13
              +1
              Quote: iConst
              Those. ~ 1/2 for money (more than 31 lard) - garbage. At times ...

              and 1/2 for the money, is that not TWO times?
          2. rJIiOK
            rJIiOK 6 February 2016 02: 06
            0
            What Western programs worked in the USSR? Can be more? And this during and after the Great Depression?
        2. Vadim237
          Vadim237 2 February 2016 13: 57
          0
          Russia produces 283 million tons of oil annually.
        3. Enot-poloskun
          Enot-poloskun 2 February 2016 15: 57
          +1
          In short, we will win! I liked the article!
      2. Belopolyak
        Belopolyak 2 February 2016 13: 33
        +2
        Quote: iConst
        Modestly silent about gas. And its value, by the way, is tied to the cost of oil.

        I also thought about it, giving out what I wish for really, it won’t get better.
        1. PHANTOM-AS
          PHANTOM-AS 2 February 2016 15: 56
          0
          Oh, these tales, oh, these storytellers.


          Constantly there is a substitution of concepts, a game of numbers, percentages from procenta and other billiards.
          On Saturday, he talked with a comrade holding a fairly high post at a defense enterprise, he said that the plan for the 15th year was only 51% fulfilled, and the profit grew by 87% !!!! belay
          A fabulously magical country!
    2. max702
      max702 2 February 2016 13: 06
      +7
      Everything would be fine, oil is gas there, and so on .. But as it seems to me in our economy, a systemic error and the most offensive president supports it ..
      Putin: cheap loans will kill incomes

      On January 25, an interregional forum of the All-Russian Popular Front (ONF) was held in Stavropol. The president of Russia came to the activists. The conversation came out frank and broad.

      Question by question. Almost a four-hour conversation. The Forum of the All-Russian Popular Front is residents of different regions who have come to tell and ask about what excites people on the ground.

      “Loans in the West - at 4%, with us - at 25%! If there is no collateral, they will disperse to the maximum, even give more, ”they say to the president.

      “There the economy is different. There is deflation, and we have inflation. There, the manufacturer produced the goods, but can no longer sell it, so they are encouraged there by all means, ”Vladimir Putin replies.

      Here is the answer to why there is no cheap money in the country, and with it economic growth, no one has money for this growth, and the authorities do not even plan to give out on the basis of the statement of our president, according to the old scheme, all difficulties will be solved for expense of squeezing funds from the population, it’s simple and relatively reliable because there is very little risk (no need to invest and, accordingly, possible losses are minimized), well, the fact that the population will live worse and worse is not the first, they will suffer, it didn’t happen like that ..
      1. arnulla
        arnulla 2 February 2016 13: 22
        +3
        That's right, Putin said, our economy is different. If it’s easier, it is underdeveloped in many respects in comparison with the leading industrial countries of the West. If it’s even easier, the cat wept.
        1. Saratoga833
          Saratoga833 2 February 2016 14: 49
          +3
          And who in the past 20 years has prevented our economy from driving into the coffin, but developing it, not with its money to support the United States, but Russia!
      2. Grbear
        Grbear 2 February 2016 14: 22
        +5
        max702-y
        Here is the answer to why there is no cheap money in the country, and with it economic growth, no one has money for this growth, and the authorities do not even plan to give out on the basis of the statement of our president, according to the old scheme, all difficulties will be solved for expense of squeezing funds from the population, it’s simple and relatively reliable because there is very little risk (no need to invest and, accordingly, possible losses are minimized), well, the fact that the population will live worse and worse is not the first, they will suffer, it didn’t happen like that ..


        With all due respect, do you see a system in Russia that would allow you to control the spending of public funds (read - printed money supply)? And to whom to give and on what basis (there is no State Planning Commission, but the "Great Red Innovator" is already looking over the fence)? Give bankers for distribution? And get them on the exchange, but for reasons beyond their control. All this was what Putin spoke about at the forum, and then.

        The author specifically speaks of the need to "evict" the liberals and their derivatives from the management of state property and roll up their sleeves. hi
      3. iConst
        iConst 2 February 2016 14: 37
        +8
        Quote: max702
        Everything would be fine, oil is gas there, and so on .. But as it seems to me in our economy, a systemic error and the most offensive president supports it ..
        Putin: cheap loans will kill incomes
        -It rather betrays the presence of a powerful financial lobby. Or the primeval incompetence.

        It is already clear to everyone that all these "useful" inflation and other crap are crutches to an economic model designed to usurp global governance through finances.

        Liberasts sing in chorus the mantra that Russia (and indeed Any economy) cannot develop without investment.
        And to the question, how did the Stalinist economy develop (and, it must be said, it did not develop weakly) without these same investments - they fall into a stupor or begin to drive all sorts of nonsense.
        1. asiat_61
          asiat_61 2 February 2016 15: 52
          +2
          I received a bunch of minuses to a similar question. After the war, there was no investment from anywhere, but there were no privatizers either. And the privatizers started their song again.
      4. Saratoga833
        Saratoga833 2 February 2016 14: 47
        +5
        Quote: max702
        in our economy, a system error and the most offensive president supports it ..

        While Putin will be at the helm, we will flutter like a beast in a trap. While all sorts of Kudrins, Grefs and Nabiullins manage finances, we will continue to support the US economy with our money and continue to ruin our own!
    3. NOTaFED
      NOTaFED 2 February 2016 13: 13
      +5
      How is the rating of companies, or rather their capitalization, related (a) to GDP?
      What taxes do companies pay with capitalization?
    4. Jack-b
      Jack-b 2 February 2016 13: 58
      +4
      Quote: IMHO
      We look at the rating of the largest companies in Russia and conclude what GDP depends on.
      http://riarating.ru/infografika/20140130/610607304.html

      This rating is based on such an original concept as "capitalization". Based on this concept, for example, Facebook is more than twice as bad as Gazprom. The question is which of them brings more profit? And who is more than taxes? So this rating is not the topic.
    5. The comment was deleted.
    6. atalef
      atalef 2 February 2016 14: 10
      +6
      The article was originally designed for d..lov. replacing one basic concept.
      What role does the level of GDP play?
      GDP can be large, while people will be in poverty.
      Tk production of 100 billion bricks-will not give the same frail GDP, but ???? None of the countries lives on GDP, it lives on the BUDGET. And we can only talk about one thing --- what share in the Russian budget does TAX from oil and gas make up.
      Then we get an absolutely true picture - more than 50%.
      That's all.
      Article minus. there is nothing to say.
      The author generally looks out the window - today oil again crawled down. I wonder why (I ask the author) - does the ruble react identically?
      1. iConst
        iConst 2 February 2016 14: 29
        +5
        Quote: atalef
        The article was originally designed for d..lov. replacing one basic concept.
        What role does the level of GDP play?
        GDP can be large, while people will be in poverty.
        - Absolutely.

        Now there are more and more such articles, which speaks of the upcoming big ass.

        Atalef, take the pie, however ... smile
      2. Jack-b
        Jack-b 3 February 2016 05: 57
        0
        Quote: atalef
        What role does the level of GDP play?

        Quote: atalef
        None of the countries lives on GDP, it lives on the BUDGET. And we can only talk about one thing --- what share in the budget of Russia is TAX made from oil and gas.

        The more GDP the more taxes. This is the first. And secondly, the country does not live on a budget. State employees live from the budget: officials, doctors, teachers, military. The rest just live on GDP - what they produced and received.
      3. Stas157
        Stas157 3 February 2016 11: 02
        +2
        Quote: atalef
        No country lives on GDP, it lives on BUDGET

        They live from the budget, those who receive the salary from the budget, and the rest live from the GDP!

        Quote: atalef
        The article was originally designed for d..lov. replacing one basic concept.
        What role does the level of GDP play?

        Just you and replace concepts. And the article is interesting!
    7. Blondy
      Blondy 2 February 2016 14: 47
      -1
      And then now, as soon as oil fell to 33.24, the ruble fell to 77.93?
    8. Bazilevs81
      Bazilevs81 2 February 2016 14: 55
      0
      Drop whoever the link to the report of the Vernadsky commission for general review.
    9. Skif83
      Skif83 2 February 2016 16: 43
      0
      We look at the rating of the largest companies in Russia and conclude what GDP depends on.
      http://riarating.ru/infografika/20140130/610607304.html

      The capitalization of Magnit is especially impressive.
      That is, you need to understand that "magnetized" gentlemen during a crisis stupidly raise prices, and ... people hawk ?!

      As for the article, oil is not the only exported raw material. Our economy is still dependent on the commodity market. What a sad thing!
      But the Twitter government doesn’t really itch ... angry
      1. Kasym
        Kasym 3 February 2016 01: 00
        0
        Somewhere they wrote that the share of oil and gas. industries in Russia in relation to GDP 17%. And the troubles are due to the fact that the United States at the end of 13 years off. printing press. And from the beginning of 14g. ceased to re-lend (extend loans), incl. deflationary vacuum cleaner. Add to this the sanctions and oil prices.
        But Russia has already made the main payments. Remained only this year (February and December).
        The United States did not have leverage over financial pressure. I don’t know, maybe the bet was on a repeat of 98, but they were late. Back in 2008 maybe it would crawl, but not now. Now the situation is turning so that the machine must be cut again. But they will not lift the sanctions - feed them with promises and only, restraining the import substitution of the Russian Federation. hi
  2. Redfox3k
    Redfox3k 2 February 2016 12: 41
    -7
    Minus the article, along the way, those same liberals!
    1. Voice of the Mind
      Voice of the Mind 2 February 2016 12: 47
      +4
      Quote: Redfox3k
      Minus the article, along the way, those same liberals!

      yes no) It was just that the USSR began mass supplies of oil from the moment of development of the Siberian fields. If memory serves in 1979. So the big half of the article is just idle talk about
    2. Wheel
      Wheel 2 February 2016 15: 48
      0
      Quote: Redfox3k
      Minus the article, along the way, those same liberals!

      Yeah, and plus the victims of the exam and cheers. laughing
  3. Woodman
    Woodman 2 February 2016 12: 42
    +4
    The Russian economy has grown out of dependence on oil expor


    It would be nice that it would be so in reality.
    1. Pravdarm
      Pravdarm 2 February 2016 12: 47
      11
      Quote: author
      Even if the price of oil in the world drops to zero, and trade in it completely stops, Russia's GDP will drop another maximum by a couple percent.
      I hope so. However, people do not care about GDP, but prices in stores and the ruble, which is getting cheaper even if oil rises! (Only about inflation is not necessary, such as because of it. She also worries the average man) In short - the social level of life!
  4. Uncle VasyaSayapin
    Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 12: 43
    +5
    The high price of oil yielded high profits and a high standard of living. The level fell by half, followed by other industries, because in the end, the population buys everything. The fact that the collapse of the economy is not crushing is explained by the growth of real production and import substitution, which they tried to organize several years ago, but with the old exchange rate this was problematic. Good or bad all this, history will tell. I hope for the best.
    1. dummy
      dummy 2 February 2016 13: 30
      +6
      uncle Vasya Sayapin The high price of oil gave high profits and a high standard of living for the population.
      Why Angola did not help the high oil price to raise the standard of living of the population? Well and further on in the text. When I go around my hometown I am surprised at the constant new buildings. Or am I confusing them with oil production wells?
      1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
        Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 21: 27
        0
        You are lucky with the city! In our country, after the collapse of prices, construction fell, and prices fell by 20-30%. The construction industry is in decline. In Angola, the country's leadership did not share money with the people, unlike the Russian Federation, this is elementary! But if you don’t even understand this, then wells with construction sites for you differ only in shape.
    2. Vadim237
      Vadim237 2 February 2016 14: 03
      -1
      "The high price of oil gave a high standard of living for the population" - how's that? - If you are talking about beneficiaries, pensioners, then there were premiums on profits, but at the expense of all the others there is a big question.
      1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
        Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 21: 29
        0
        For you, it is obvious yes, the question is so huge that it will not yield to understanding.
        1. Vadim237
          Vadim237 3 February 2016 14: 01
          0
          I also forgot to add entrepreneurs who hold stocks of oil companies in their portfolio.
    3. O. Bender
      O. Bender 2 February 2016 14: 51
      +1
      High standard of living, when and where?
  5. Taygerus
    Taygerus 2 February 2016 12: 43
    +2
    "So if you grow wet dreams of the collapse of the Russian Federation as a result of oil price fluctuations, you are in for a cruel bummer."

    give GOD! there’s nothing to add, we have to work and everything will work out
    1. 34 region
      34 region 2 February 2016 13: 51
      +4
      12.43. You might think today no one works! laughing Then another question. If you work hard, then live when? He who does not rest well does not work well. How is it in our country with relaxation? Need to work! And how much work do you need? 6 hours, 8,12,25? A month of 12 hours, two or three months of 12 hours a day? Does it work on shifts and everyone needs to work so much? And what's the point of spending a lifetime at work? And how much should the work be paid? Ruble per hour, 100 rubles or free of charge? What should be enough salary? There may be enough calls: It is necessary to work! May think about other aspects of work and rest?
      1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
        Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 21: 40
        0
        Yes, half of the people do not work and are engaged in garbage! 6 hours crap or 25? They live according to the principle: "It is all the same to us Tatars: to attack - to run, to retreat - to run." And with a sense of accomplishment and "resentment at the company that could not evaluate him," he runs at 18:00 from the office. And then demagoguery about the fact that everything is relative and in general it's not about work, but about rest.
  6. Nsk 54
    Nsk 54 2 February 2016 12: 44
    +4
    In the meantime: "Putin instructed to finalize the proposals for the privatization of state-owned companies."
    http://ria.ru/economy/20160202/1368675364.html
    1. jjj
      jjj 2 February 2016 13: 04
      0
      Do not give for nothing. And some consider it just the opposite - strengthening the role of the state in industrial management
    2. 34 region
      34 region 2 February 2016 13: 58
      +3
      12.44. And what good is their sales? Another recognition of his impotence. Again, hope for a good uncle who will do it right. Some kind of childhood. They themselves can’t do anything. One Stalin was a man. He did everything himself and did not rely on his neighbor.
    3. asiat_61
      asiat_61 2 February 2016 16: 15
      0
      Well, what can I say, SLAVELIKOYUPUTIN !!!!! fat to Medvedev.
  7. fa2998
    fa2998 2 February 2016 12: 47
    +4
    What an optimistic title for the article! Let's see tomorrow oil will fall in price below $ 25 - the ruble exchange rate to the dollar will be for 100. This is where the oil market is considered. You need to get rid of the RAW economy. GAS is also included in the raw materials (and its price is also tied to the price of oil) .A lot is exported in the form of raw materials, not finished products. hi
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 2 February 2016 14: 05
      0
      Our entire market is declining - these are all goods and types of services.
      1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
        Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 21: 42
        0
        Well, of course, because the economy was littered with oil money, which is not there right now. Demand has fallen.
  8. Denis DV
    Denis DV 2 February 2016 12: 48
    0
    Definitely good drinks
  9. kit-kat
    kit-kat 2 February 2016 12: 52
    +4
    I don’t know, I liked the article. Encouraging. Probably because he was tired of pessimism.
  10. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh 2 February 2016 12: 54
    0
    It would be nice for the author to bring
    graphs of the share of oil in state exports
    and the share of oil in budget revenues.
    It would have turned out to be a completely different picture.

    And there were two significant dates:
    1974 - an increase in oil prices by 4 times,
    1986 - 4 times drop in oil prices.

    After the 1st date was the "golden era of Brezhnev",
    after the 2nd date - the beginning of the financial collapse of the USSR.
    1. igordok
      igordok 2 February 2016 13: 31
      +3
      Quote: voyaka uh
      It would be nice for the author to bring
      graphs of the share of oil in state exports


      http://game.jofo.ru/data/userfiles/95/images/446993-dolya_eksporta_nefti_v_vvp_s

      tran_mira_2012.png
      Moreover, the Russian economy is much less dependent on oil exports than most countries - the largest oil exporters in the world.

      http://game.jofo.ru/446993.html
      1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
        Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 21: 45
        0
        What about gas? Or type of price did not fall off him? Add gas, the graph will be oh, what another!
      2. VEKT
        VEKT 3 February 2016 13: 34
        +1
        You give the same figures in GDP, in oil export more than 50%, and in general fuel and energy complex more than 70%, such articles could be issued when oil was at $ 100 per barrel, and now, as the economy shows, we have overcome this dependence.
    2. Alex_59
      Alex_59 2 February 2016 13: 43
      +6
      Quote: voyaka uh
      It would be nice for the author to bring
      graphs of the share of oil in state exports
      and the share of oil in budget revenues.

      I climbed onto the Rosstat website. The budget of 2014 of the year is 26 766,1 billion rubles, of which income from foreign economic activity is 5 463,70 billion rubles. Next, we look at foreign economic activity and find out that the income from the export of raw materials (oil, gas, timber, ore) is about 70% of the total. That is approximately 3 824,59 billion rubles. revenue to the budget. Or about 14,3% of budget revenues. But you need to keep in mind that this 14% is not only oil and gas, it is generally all raw materials - wood, various ores, etc.

      So the only thing we can confidently talk about is that the share of oil and gas in Russia's budget revenues is LESS than 14%. How many - figs knows.

      But there is one more thing, in the budget revenues there is also "fees for the use of natural resources" - 2 billion rubles. The lion's share of this money is also paid by oil and gas companies and other extractive companies. So the real income from oil and gas is still more than 934,70%, but not more than 14-20%. Something like this.

      Incidentally, this does not contradict the Rogers nameplate; it has 9% of GDP, not budget. But we are more interested in the budget, because from the budget all projects are funded, and WFP is a virtual indicator.
      1. Alex_59
        Alex_59 2 February 2016 14: 29
        +2
        But it really fell even less. Why? And because other non-commodity sectors were growing at that time. What, of course, no belolentochny horse never recognizes.
        And here, as it seems to me, the author skidded. The real drop is less (I think I'm not an economist) due to the fall of the ruble. The budget is filled in rubles. Dollar revenues from oil and gas fell 3,5 times, but this drop in ruble terms was leveled off by the fall of the ruble 2,5 times. Those. oil and gas workers, translating dollar revenues into rubles and paying rubles to the treasury, reduced payments not by 3,5 times, but by only a few percent, which also resulted in a drop in budget revenues by a few percent.

        There is no question of any wow growth in other industries. Anyone who works in factories knows this. If there is growth, then it is not at all such as to compete with the decline in oil and gas revenues, we are still very far from this.
        1. Wheel
          Wheel 2 February 2016 15: 56
          0
          Quote: Alex_59
          Dollar revenues from oil and gas fell 3,5 times, but this drop in ruble terms was leveled off by a 2,5 times drop in the ruble. Those. oil and gas workers, translating dollar revenues into rubles and paying rubles to the treasury, reduced payments not by 3,5 times, but by only a few percent, which also resulted in a drop in budget revenues by a few percent.

          Hmm, with arithmetic you have a tight ....
          Repost from topic "Guessing on the oil thicket, or How the American financiers poured the oil market"
          Quote: Wheel
          Everything is checked at the level of arithmetic for the elementary classes.
          Oil sank three times, respectively, budget revenues fell by the same amount. If you believe the "economists", then the budget loss from the drawdown will be 20%.
          In order to compensate for the budget in ruble terms, the ruble was halved twice.
          Total, these 20% of losses from lower oil prices pulled exactly half the budget in ruble terms.
          Completely uncomplicated calculations give the share of budget oil revenues in 75%.
          1. Alex_59
            Alex_59 2 February 2016 20: 53
            0
            Quote: Wheel
            Hmm, with arithmetic you have a tight ...

            Well maybe, maybe.
            Quote: Wheel
            Completely uncomplicated calculations give the share of budget oil revenues in 75%.
            Well here with arithmetic in general a pipe. 75% - I will not even comment on such nonsense.
    3. 34 region
      34 region 2 February 2016 14: 01
      +1
      Warrior! 12.54. Well then, in your opinion, the industrialization of the 30s is a rise in oil prices by 20 times!
    4. Arbogast
      Arbogast 2 February 2016 15: 06
      -4
      Quote: voyaka uh
      It would be nice for the author to bring
      graphs of the share of oil in state exports
      and the share of oil in budget revenues.
      It would have turned out to be a completely different picture
      The author, as it were, faces a different goal .. soldier For which he actually receives a rather big salary, I think ..repeat
      In general, if you need graphics, then ...
  11. ISSIDOR
    ISSIDOR 2 February 2016 12: 58
    +2
    Companies manufacturing products for metallurgical enterprises, after the departure of business centers from Europe and Ukraine, have increased the production and marketing of their products by three times, but in other sectors not everything is so good.
  12. Mikhail Krapivin
    Mikhail Krapivin 2 February 2016 13: 02
    +2
    Yes, it’s clear that sooner or later everything will settle down, the question is whether in our life?
  13. cyberhanter
    cyberhanter 2 February 2016 13: 02
    +2
    Our share of oil exports is really small, but we export a lot of gas - and its price depends on oil prices. So the author is still cunning. On the other hand, on the whole, I agree with the author, although he, in my opinion, is inclined to somewhat downplay the effect of oil prices on our country's income
    and I don’t agree that a weak ruble is such a plus. We do not export so many products to make it profitable. We buy more finished products than we export. this is the problem, the economy is built on the sale of raw materials
  14. Sanya Rus
    Sanya Rus 2 February 2016 13: 06
    -7
    it is noticeable that the development before the revolution was systematic and progressive, and after the revolution the failure was significant, I think that if the Bolshevik revolution had not happened, Russia would have overtaken the United States by 20-30 years.
    1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
      Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 21: 53
      0
      Yeah, the plan was 5 years old, fulfilling the decisions of the Congress of the RSDLP in exile. Think of course on health.
  15. imugn
    imugn 2 February 2016 13: 09
    +2
    If everything was so optimistic, the change in the cost of oil was 10 times weaker than the ruble. In the meantime, McCain is right - the Russian economy behaves like a gas station. One hope is that the government will heed Glazyev.
  16. Muvka
    Muvka 2 February 2016 13: 17
    +3
    Quote: Pravdarm
    Quote: author
    Even if the price of oil in the world drops to zero, and trade in it completely stops, Russia's GDP will drop another maximum by a couple percent.
    I hope so. However, people do not care about GDP, but prices in stores and the ruble, which is getting cheaper even if oil rises! (Only about inflation is not necessary, such as because of it. She also worries the average man) In short - the social level of life!

    For a good ruble was overvalued. Because of expensive oil. And it was not beneficial to our manufacturers. Because our goods were more expensive than foreign ones. Now the ruble was dropped rather intentionally in order to increase production. Although I do not argue, they overdid it a bit. We would have 45-50 rubles per dollar, so that it would be profitable to produce both for ourselves and for export, and so that the ordinary person would not be a burden :)
  17. dummy
    dummy 2 February 2016 13: 23
    +3
    Quote: IMHO
    http://riarating.ru/infografika/20140130/610607304.html

    This is the rating of PUBLIC companies. That is, those who placed shares on the stock exchange. This nationalization was done so that someone with money would become their owner. In the former USSR, no one had money; companies would have gone abroad. Hodor was stopped in time with his discharge of Yukos. Non-public companies are not listed in the ranking. Who told you that, for example, Russian Railways has a small contribution to GDP? So RATING ABOUT ANYTHING.
  18. George 275
    George 275 2 February 2016 13: 24
    0
    Quote: Mikhail Krapivin
    Yes, it’s clear that sooner or later everything will settle down, the question is whether in our life?

    My grandmother thought that too
  19. Sashka
    Sashka 2 February 2016 13: 25
    +1
    Quote: Tor5
    Over the past couple of years, oil prices have fallen more than three times, and GDP has fallen by a couple percent. How so?

    And so, analyst ... We sell raw materials in dollars, the dollar has risen in price almost three times ... So it turns out that budget revenues in ruble terms practically did not suffer, i.e. all social Payments may not be affected, as the budget is also filled. Due to the fall of the ruble, the fall in oil prices was compensated. I do not exclude the possibility that our ruble was dropped for this. Yes, people are suffering, since imports have risen in price 2-3 times, but the economy is afloat. This is the lesser of evils. If the exchange rate were at the level of 35 rubles per dollar, then there would be no pensions or salaries ... Based on the schedule, it can be seen with the naked eye how the growth of GDP almost repeats the dynamics of prices.
    Good day!
    1. aleks 62 next
      aleks 62 next 2 February 2016 13: 46
      +1
      .... Over the past couple of years, oil prices have fallen more than three times, and GDP has fallen by a couple percent. How so? ...


      .... Everything is very simple .... The share of the production and sale of oil and gas in GDP is about 18% .... And the drop in GDP, respectively, is relatively small .... Keep in mind that some export items have become more expensive and the number of items is slightly increased .... Therefore, the overall decline in GDP "by a couple of percent" .... And the share in the export of oil and gas is about 40% ..... The rest of industrial production and agriculture .... hi
  20. Gormenghast
    Gormenghast 2 February 2016 13: 26
    +9
    Yes there is not enough seventh conclusion !!

    7. As can be seen in the graph, neither the First World War, nor the Civil War, nor the Second World War led to such a drop in GDP as the Yeltsinoid era.

    Conclusion: Yeltsin is worse than Hitler and worse than Stalin (hello to the kudrinoids and the wild Mongol-Baltic states). am This is a vampire who sucked all the juices from Russia. It is myself "collective west (= Ass) "proved.

    Conclusion 2: in all those who helped the Chief Bourgeois in 92-00 (as well as the creature of perestroika), one should not only aim at the media.
  21. 24rus
    24rus 2 February 2016 13: 49
    0
    Who knows what percentage of oil sales goes to the treasury?
  22. Million
    Million 2 February 2016 13: 51
    +1
    yes, the dollar exchange rate directly speaks about it ...
  23. Engineer
    Engineer 2 February 2016 14: 10
    10
    What nonsense the author writes: it feels like he doesn’t pay utility bills, doesn’t go to shops to buy food and clothes, and doesn’t refuel his car. Let the author simply find what percentage of export oil occupied by the collapse of the Union and how sharply this percentage has increased since the 2000s. The Union did not sit on the needle, it was Russia and sat on it tightly. Because as soon as oil prices collapsed, it immediately became evident how weak our economy is and what a huge dependence comes from petrodollars. There is nothing to fill the budget with, because our patronage deprives pensioners of workers, because pension savings have taken away from us, because housing and communal services are increasing, social programs are being reduced, all kinds of Plato wound up, etc., etc., etc. They do not know how to manage with us - they know how to take and reduce, and then divide among themselves. Therefore, to write that the economy has outgrown its dependence on oil exports is simply ridiculous! She did not outgrow, but remained without him. And these are very different things!
    1. Gormenghast
      Gormenghast 2 February 2016 21: 23
      +2
      + disabled people of the 1st group are transferred to the second; the second - in the third, and the disabled of the third group are declared healthy.

      This is easier than making chewing pineapples and grouse pay.
  24. Lebedev Sergey
    Lebedev Sergey 2 February 2016 15: 02
    +1
    The massive export of oil to the Republic of Ingushetia / USSR / RF was started after the Druzhba-1964 pipeline was commissioned in 1. Since its potential was insignificant, its impact on GDP was also negligible. However, in the spring of 1969, the construction of the Druzhba-2 pipeline began. After the end of its construction in 1974, oil exports from the USSR were more than doubled. From that moment began the correlation of oil prices and GDP. The graph presented by the author clearly shows this.
  25. andrey6060
    andrey6060 2 February 2016 15: 04
    +1
    “Russia itself is a universe and no one needs it.”
    ―Catherine II
  26. O. Bender
    O. Bender 2 February 2016 15: 13
    +4
    In the economy (as we call it), the vast majority of the means of production does not belong to the private sector but to the private trader (oligarchy). The interests of doher rkhs completely contradict the interests of workers and not very citizens. The social responsibility of business and large and medium is zero due to corporate greed and small business is barely barely making ends meet. The whole body of the economy is permeated exclusively by interests to the hierarchs, with the support of the political lobby to maximize profits. They are tied to the dollar in the first place. This is what affects the skin of the population, the rise in prices of goods and services. I’ll lose profit somewhere need to compensate
  27. O. Bender
    O. Bender 2 February 2016 15: 27
    +2
    The task of filling the state budget should be solved without focusing on risky sources such as gas oil, etc. Tobacco is in excess of income. If 20% own almost everyone will be kind to share. There are enough internal sources to fill the budget. Is there anyone to shake for the hind legs? Will there be enough determination?
  28. Alexandr2637
    Alexandr2637 2 February 2016 15: 37
    +7
    The Russian economy has grown out of dependence on oil expor

    You can not read further!
  29. uskrabut
    uskrabut 2 February 2016 15: 48
    +4
    I wanted to comment, but I will not. All people are adults, you yourself see what is happening. Only now I came across an article in the journal Finance, where Siluanov cited the share of oil and gas budget revenues at the level of 50%
  30. nik13
    nik13 2 February 2016 15: 48
    0
    Quote: atalef
    No country lives on GDP, it lives on BUDGET.

    ravings of the "Jewish mare"
    1. Sashka
      Sashka 2 February 2016 15: 59
      -3
      It’s not nonsense ...
      What is China's GDP?!?! And how do people live?!?!
      We have GDP about 5 times lower than the PRC, we live, in my opinion, no worse ... There is very cheap labor force, they work for a cup of rice. China is tying its budget in the defense industry, cutting back on the social sphere, hence the level ...
      1. Former battalion commander
        Former battalion commander 2 February 2016 17: 13
        +1
        Dear Sasha! So China is 10 (!) TIMES MORE by population! And they live there about the same as the Russians! Truncated or not got it?
        1. Sashka
          Sashka 3 February 2016 11: 08
          0
          Dear Former, for starters, learn to respectfully talk with strangers ...
          But essentially, Brazil: GDP is similar to ours, the population is 50 million. more, Germany: GDP is similar to ours, the population is 50 million less. But for some reason, we don’t live WORSE worse than Germany almost 2 times, and BETTER Brazil almost 2 times!
          No matter what GDP, the main thing is how it is spent !!! If most of the GDP goes to social. payments, then this country lives better than a country where most of the GDP goes to the defense industry! For example, in Germany, large pensions, social. payments, etc., therefore, the income of the population is higher. BUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
          I am not saying that it is more correct to live like this! Better "Everything for the front, everything for VICTORY", and experiencing hardships, than chic, and then bod with foreigners!
          Do you understand the meaning of my comments ?! hi
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Tutu
        Tutu 3 February 2016 06: 01
        0
        "There is very cheap working force working for a cup of rice. "
        ====================================================================== =================
        Why don't I know? hahaha ...
        1. Sashka
          Sashka 3 February 2016 11: 20
          0
          Maybe because they have never been interested in this issue ?!

          I certainly exaggerate, but most of the population receives pennies, which are barely enough to feed their family. This is all due to an oversupply of labor.
          Good day!
  31. Papin
    Papin 2 February 2016 15: 57
    -7
    Well, here’s a bunch of economists))))
    Everything is simple for me:
    oil prices fell 2.5–3 times; if I began to eat 2.5–3 times worse, I didn’t, but I began to spend 30 percent more on food. But here everyone forgets, a hundred drop in oil prices and the economic situation are aggravated by sanctions (access to cheap money).
    So in fact, we are not so much dependent on oil prices as they are trying to explain to us.
    Alex_59 - plus!
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 2 February 2016 18: 07
      +1
      "The economic situation is aggravated by sanctions (access to cheap money)." And where are these foreign loans cheap? - You will look at the Euro and Dollar rates from the beginning.
    2. Uncle VasyaSayapin
      Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 22: 09
      +1
      they did not become 2,5-3 times, because 1) the rate collapsed "only" 2 times! 2) Most of the products consumed by ordinary people are Russian-made! And their prices increased by 25-50%, and not by 100% according to the growth of the exchange rate, as it would have been in the 90s, when most of the products were imported.
      And you need to have your own money, you won’t get up on other people's money, a fact. Unless of course they are borrowed at%, and not tyrit.
  32. afrikanez
    afrikanez 2 February 2016 16: 09
    +1
    The only thing left is to untie the oil from the ruble. Let the ruble focus on production and not on raw materials.
    1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
      Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 22: 15
      0
      Oil is the foundation of modern economics. On the contrary, you need to try to tie oil to the ruble. And all oil consumers, accustom to this. Then all the calculations could be carried out in rubles. Yes, just this difficult task! hi
  33. Former battalion commander
    Former battalion commander 2 February 2016 16: 57
    +1
    The article is good! Even VERY good! But the optimism about the "stability" of the Russian economy amid falling oil prices is somewhat discouraging ... I think time will tell. And I think the reason for this is the UNOBJECTIVE calculations of the country's GDP lately. Power embellishes successes, veils failures. Official statistics are in doubt. The low competence of the leadership both in material production and in the management of finance suggests a not so cloudless prospect for the country. And the above graph ends when oil was still worth 100! How does this chart look NOW?
    1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
      Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 22: 23
      0
      "Stability" is a relative concept. If there was no economy other than oil, then if the price of oil fell three times, to the level of the cost of its production, the economy would be torn to shreds. You must understand, this optimism is the optimism of a person who was thrown a brick on his head, and he was wearing a helmet - he spent a couple of months in the hospital and walked on, holding on to the wall. But those who threw, thought everything - to him a kirdyk. Someone will tell him bad, but the optimist will say good, not dead, however!
  34. dakty
    dakty 2 February 2016 18: 00
    0
    Quote: Wheel
    Oil dipped three times, respectively, budget revenues fell as many times.

    You probably have problems with arithmetic! Your calculation will be correct if you consider that the budget was 100% oil revenues. And if we take into account that oil gave, say, 20% of the budget, then it (the budget) will decrease by ~ 13%, and not by 66,6%
    1. Uncle VasyaSayapin
      Uncle VasyaSayapin 2 February 2016 22: 30
      0
      Economics is not a simple math. If oil fell to the cost level, the share in the budget from it fell not three times, but by the size of its former share in the budget. And the multiplicative effect in GDP from the loss of oil revenues, even if it was no more than 10% in GDP, would be the same percentage, or even double.
  35. Stoler
    Stoler 2 February 2016 22: 15
    0
    Put your charts in F and go to the market !! Fucking optimist !!!
  36. Infernal man
    Infernal man 3 February 2016 04: 02
    +2
    already fed up with this mantra of the urapatriots about our independence from oil. The graphs show that the site "made by us" is constantly poked .... only here the ruble exchange rate for some reason is purple on their attempts: oil falls, the country is getting poorer. More precisely, the population is getting poorer, tk. the state puts everything on its shoulders.

    Some aliens. As if they’re living in another country and don’t really see what is happening with the economy, they just repeat in such articles that we are all hurt and we are not dependent on oil in any way. Oh well.
  37. navalskii
    navalskii 3 February 2016 09: 56
    0
    I agree on the condition that oil costs from $ 50 per barrel and above, but no more than 30 ... Otherwise, I completely agree, it is worth further reducing dependence on the export of raw materials, and not only oil, our gas export also occupies a considerable share