Military Review

How much did oil cost in the twentieth century

31



A fall in oil prices to $ 30 per barrel as a whole does not pose a danger to the Russian budget. The only threat lies in the duration of the cataclysm. How long will oil prices remain stably low?

Everything will be corrected when oil becomes more expensive ... But what if not? So here - time, and no?
Modern bard.


At the end of last year, the economy fell by 4,5% with the average price of Urals oil in 51,23 dollars per barrel compared to 97,60 dollars in 2014.

We entered the new, 2016, year at a stable value of the “barrel” in the 30 — 35 dollars area, which initiated a whole stream of questions from, to put it mildly, disappointed public. According to official data, a one dollar decrease in the cost of a barrel devastates the budget by 93 billion of green currency. If the situation does not change, the usual term “crisis” will be replaced by a terrible, but more true in this context, the word “ruin”.

Leading analysts are voicing conflicting forecasts of oil prices. Optimists talk about the imminent “take-off” to 120 — 150 dollars per barrel, citing the rate of growth of the world economy, adjusting proven oil reserves and the practical impossibility of its production in extreme regions of the planet. Also mentioned is not too impressive debut of shale oil and the futility of using renewable energy sources. Stocks of "black gold" are gradually reduced. The hour is not far when oil exporting countries will become the most powerful players in the geopolitical arena.

Realists look at the situation with oil without much enthusiasm. With all due respect to the supporters of the “$ 150 barrel”, a realistic long-term forecast gives the opposite result. Which one To do this, go back to the recent past and see how much oil cost during the 20th century.

For those who are accustomed to associate three-digit amounts with the “barrel,” the cost of oil in the past will seem pure fiction. Three dollars, and not a cent more!

When comparing price lists in shop windows (“sausage method”) or using an inflation calculator three dollars a barrel in the 1960 year is exactly the situation in the oil market at the start of the 2016 year. Thirty dollars a barrel!

With all the dependence of the modern world on the supply of hydrocarbons, the frantic demand is fully satisfied with the supply. North Africa, the Middle East, Angola, Venezuela, Indonesia, the Philippines, oil production in the Norwegian and North Seas, mining in the United States, deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, numerous deposits in the territory of the former republics. USSR, etc.

Except for the period of global confrontation (World War II), everyone had unlimited access to hydrocarbons. Oil was so cheap, and it was so easy to get it, that there was no need to unleash “oil wars”. Not a single oil rig on the Korean Peninsula. Not a single tanker from Afghanistan. There was no oil in either Yugoslavia or Vietnam. Local wars of that era were the result of the redistribution of spheres of influence. And to fight for oil, which costs 3, the buck ... There were no people willing.

The 1973 oil crisis of the year was a real blow. 12 dollars per barrel. We, who lived with oil for 120 dollars, do not understand. But the Arab-Israeli conflict and the “oil embargo” almost violated the usual course of things. Some in the West engaged in energy conservation, but most found a simple solution. Increased oil imports from the USSR.

Over the next decade, oil prices rose steadily, briefly reaching 40 dollars per barrel. The time was not easy. The Islamic Revolution in Iran and the ensuing Iran-Iraq war with attacks on tankers in the Gulf. Aggravated by another escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

As a result of all the undoubtedly interesting historical from the point of view of events, by the mid-1980s, the price of oil had settled in the region of $ 20 per barrel (the equivalent of $ 35-40 at the current rate). And it is with this result that we have come to the beginning of a new century.

Everyone knows what happened next. For ten years, China has raised out of poverty 400 million. A new community has emerged in the world, equivalent in size to the European Union, with the consumption of first world countries at a loss. There has been a sharp increase in demand for fuel and manufactured goods. Oil has become a profitable asset, which, through the efforts of market speculators, has grown to the desired 100 — 120 dollars per barrel.

The slowdown in economic growth in China (the so-called “soft landing”) has returned everything to its place. Now oil costs as much as it cost for most of the twentieth century.

Cheap oil has a negative effect on the Russian economy, but it is in the interests of the West and China, the main importers of petroleum products. Pursuing his personal interests, the White House lifted Iran’s sanctions and, for the first time in 40 years, allowed exporting American oil. That aggravated the already difficult situation in the oil market.

Of course, cheap oil has its advantages for the average consumer. Gasoline in the US fell to $ 1,5 per gallon (3,7 L), but Russians are unlikely to enjoy the benefits of cheap oil. If you can tear off the fourth skin from the client, then you need to tear off. Where is our antitrust law?

You can try to adjust prices by reducing production volumes, but, in fact, this is the way to nowhere. No one is interested in the increase in the price of oil, except for the “raw materials super-pressing. Which often pursue their own, opposite interests. And which is too much to make weighted collective decisions.

We should not forget about the impact of technological progress and the active search for a replacement for hydrocarbons.

An ambitious project from the creator of “Tesla” and PayPal settlement system, inventor and investor Ilona Mask. Mask offers a complete rejection of electricity in residential neighborhoods and related losses. Instead, the compact efficient PowerWall batteries help save and redistribute the energy of solar batteries in the dark.

How much did oil cost in the twentieth century


Hybrid cars, electric “Tesla”, promising energy-saving systems, solar panels, synthetics and biofuels. Wood fuel already provides 25% of energy consumption in Finland and is in the first place among other sources of energy.

8 March 2013 was the first commercial biofuel flight on the Amsterdam - New York route.

During the Second World War, the Third Reich met up to half of its energy needs through gasoline synthesized from coal (the Fisher-Tropsch process). The same method helped South Africa to survive in the times of international sanctions and Apartheid. Synthetic fuel is unprofitable at the price of natural oil at 30 dollars per barrel, but the Fisher-Tropsch process will be remembered again as soon as oil rises above a critical value.

Finally, shale oil and gas. 2013 to 2015 The gas purchase price in Europe has been halved (from 458 to 218 dollars per thousand cubic meters). The United States covers up to a third of its needs with shale oil. If this is not a “shale revolution”, then how else to designate this process?

The production of shale oil has another important advantage: the possibility of flexible changes in the volume of its production. Unlike natural oil fields, freezing which leads to heavy costs.

All of these decisions, of course, have a significant impact on the dynamics of oil prices. And they can, if not replace, then seriously “move” on the market of exporters of natural oil.

The rate of export of hydrocarbons is detrimental to their naivety. When will our oil go up? Visitors to the recently held “Gaidar Forum” reminded the unfortunate Papuans who had gathered around the dried palm tree. And with hope in the eyes of those who wait, when the branches turn green. Instead of looking for other ways to survive.

The Chinese character for “crisis” has a second meaning - opportunity. And when, if not now, Russia has got the opportunity and the need to get off the “oil needle” and finally take up the development, unlike the more profitable high-tech industries?
Author:
31 comment
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 1 February 2016 06: 57
    +2
    God forbid that the oil fell to 20 fantasists and stayed at that price for three years at least, so that the government remembered the economics and took it seriously.
    1. Santa Fe
      1 February 2016 08: 02
      +7
      The daily volume of oil production in Russia - 10,5 million barrels, is equal to the production in Saudi Arabia

      The population of S. Arabia is 35 million people.
      The population of Russia is 144 million

      In the current situation 80% of Russians - unprofitable for their country, excess ballast

      Ros-Oil, Sechins, Rotenbergs, Gazprom are not interested in the development of other industries. All your enterprises, businesses and research institutes are extra costs for them. Losses. Losses. Why invest in some kind of production, if they are already ready on the table. Why take any risks? It's easier to put them in your pocket right away and buy another yacht for half a billion.

      My favorite, Sailing Yacht A, with 100m masts with lifts inside. Built in Poland for Andrey Melnichenko in 2015. Don't give a damn about sanctions. 500 million euros. By the way, this is already his second beauty, after the "Russian zamvolta" (look in Yandex what it is and wow)

      Even by investing in a project and creating highly qualified jobs, Sechin and Co. will receive nothing but extra costs and a headache. You, dear, will earn money, you want to relax in the UAE and buy a BMW. And the money will flow even more from the country. Some losses and costs.

      So let's drink for those who are on board, who are overboard - will get drunk on their own
      1. lame
        lame 1 February 2016 13: 12
        +1
        Quote: SWEET_SIXTEEN
        The daily volume of oil production in Russia - 10,5 million barrels, is equal to the production in Saudi Arabia
        The population of S. Arabia is 35 million people.
        The population of Russia is 144 million

        Well, actually, in Saudi Arabia, unlike Russia, there is nothing more than oil and sand.
    2. atalef
      atalef 1 February 2016 08: 12
      10
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      God forbid that the oil fell to 20 fantasists and stayed at that price for three years at least, so that the government remembered the economics and took it seriously.

      At $ 20 a barrel, it will be too late to remember about the economy. about the economy it was necessary to remember about 120 bucks a barrel.
      With 20-ty. Russia's budget to become an ongoing process of patching holes.
      With 20-ty. NWF and Stab Fund will end this year by November and then inaccessible 2 ways
      1. Reduction of cost items
      2. domestic loan.
      ie
      Retirement Age Increase
      Pension insurance freeze
      Privatization
      Shearing deposits on household deposits

      Accordingly social. tension and all this before the election.
      God forbid . oil at $ 20 tk how it ends. no one knows. but nothing good will come of it.
      py.s.
      Why do you think that . if at 120 a barrel neither did anything. will do at 20?
      Maybe everything is much more grove? They just do not know how.
      1. Villon
        Villon 1 February 2016 12: 13
        +3
        Quote: atalef
        Why do you think that . if at 120 a barrel neither did anything. will do at 20?
        Maybe everything is much simpler? They just do not know how.

        Or do not want to.
      2. alicante11
        alicante11 1 February 2016 16: 07
        0
        With 20-ty. Russia's budget to become an ongoing process of patching holes.
        With 20-ty. NWF and Stab Fund will end this year by November and then inaccessible 2 ways


        We hear these mantras no less than about the fall of the dollar pyramid.

        It will be unprofitable to supply crude oil, we will supply oil products. Inside such a maneuver has already been made. We will do it in the foreign market.
        1. atalef
          atalef 1 February 2016 16: 23
          0
          Quote: alicante11
          With 20-ty. Russia's budget to become an ongoing process of patching holes.
          With 20-ty. NWF and Stab Fund will end this year by November and then inaccessible 2 ways


          We hear these mantras no less than about the fall of the dollar pyramid.

          It will be unprofitable to supply crude oil, we will supply oil products. Inside such a maneuver has already been made. We will do it in the foreign market.

          Unscramble everything you wrote
      3. Awaz
        Awaz 1 February 2016 21: 19
        +1
        you write this only because you don’t know the real state of affairs. It is understandable that the oil industry, which brought 40 percent of the federal budget, will definitely squeeze when such a price of oil falls. But it will not stop working and bring any income to the budget. Everyone is talking about a 3-5% drop. 5% is not 50. But in Russia, the oil industry is only 10% of the industry. After all, there is also 90% of another industry that works and brings some kind of revenue to the budget. Yes, some industries dipped, but some rose.
        Of course, when oil cost 100 or more bucks a barrel, nobody really wanted to work. Snickering and lazy. I agree that most of the leaders do not understand the fucker and, in general, do not know how to work. But by any there are among them those who understand everything and not only know what to do, but try ...
        Western politicians are even dumber than Russian. With their sanctions, they played only a hand to the Russian authorities. Right now, Russian propaganda, all the shoals and problems of the authorities merges into sanctions.
    3. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 1 February 2016 08: 27
      +4
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      God forbid that the oil fell to 20 fantasists and stayed at that price for three years at least, so that the government remembered the economics and took it seriously.

      Ugh, ugh, the government will survive, but many will really begin to starve .. there is no longer a Soviet backlog ..
    4. bandabas
      bandabas 1 February 2016 08: 47
      +4
      Who! Our government? It is now thinking of increasing contributions from salaries to a pension fund for penny pensions. And then he will think about why else you can tear money from citizens. Above the withdrawal of funds (certainly not from oneself), iota-nanotechnologists do not extend their thoughts. But with might and main we continue to forgive external debts. Only Russia wishing to forgive something on the horizon can not see.
  2. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 1 February 2016 07: 03
    +4
    The Chinese character “crisis” has a second meaning - opportunity

    The opportunity appeared, moreover, dictated from abroad (probably still did not have enough brains), but will there be enough willpower and determination to get off this "needle"?
  3. qwert
    qwert 1 February 2016 07: 13
    +7
    Stop. The whole article is about oil. Oleg, where is it about ships? ))))
    1. Mera joota
      Mera joota 1 February 2016 07: 58
      0
      Quote: qwert
      Stop. The whole article is about oil. Oleg, where is it about ships? ))))

      Well, ships without oil can not yet ... so indirectly about ships.
      1. afdjhbn67
        afdjhbn67 1 February 2016 08: 24
        +2
        Quote: Mera Joota
        Well, ships without oil can not yet ...

        As an option - what can be done from oil ... it turns out not only - prosralipolymers))))
        1. The comment was deleted.
    2. atalef
      atalef 1 February 2016 08: 12
      +3
      Quote: qwert
      Stop. The whole article is about oil. Oleg, where is it about ships? ))))

      Or yachts?
  4. sergeyzzz
    sergeyzzz 1 February 2016 07: 33
    +2
    Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
    God forbid that the oil fell to 20 fantasists and stayed at that price for three years at least, so that the government remembered the economics and took it seriously.

    The current shake is enough to clear the brains, then the money is needed for the construction of industry, and it is mainly possible only from the sale of natural resources at this stage.
  5. uav80
    uav80 1 February 2016 07: 54
    +2
    Thirty greens per barrel is a normal price, everything else is speculation ...
    1. igordok
      igordok 1 February 2016 07: 59
      +2
      Add another chart. Oil prices and Russia's GDP. They are not very connected.
      Taken from http://starcom68.livejournal.com/1958510.html. There is also an interesting comment.
      1. Santa Fe
        1 February 2016 08: 11
        +1
        Quote: igordok
        Oil prices and Russia's GDP. They are not very connected.

        Go to the exchanger
        1. igordok
          igordok 1 February 2016 12: 59
          +1
          Quote: SWEET_SIXTEEN
          Go to the exchanger

          Currency has its own speculator, oil has its own speculator, GDP has its own speculator analyst. The commander may have a common one, but it is difficult to wait for synchronism.
      2. atalef
        atalef 1 February 2016 08: 29
        +1
        Quote: igordok
        Oil prices and Russia's GDP. They are not very connected.

        belay
        shit.
      3. brn521
        brn521 1 February 2016 12: 33
        0
        Quote: igordok
        Oil prices and Russia's GDP. They are not very connected. Taken from http://starcom68.livejournal.com/1958510.html.

        There is no analysis in the article by reference, only the dubious conclusion that oil export does not affect the economic situation, and as a result, political stability in the Russian Federation.
        However, the author's task is manifested in the conclusion to his article: "In general, with the help of just one graph, I made a buzz for the monarchists, anti-Sovietists, liberal-market leaders and maydanuts. Learn, kids, and I'll enjoy hysterics in the comments."
        I did not find anything worth commenting on the link either.
      4. vlad_vlad
        vlad_vlad 2 February 2016 00: 29
        0
        and one more schedule - from 100% of the electricity produced in Germany, renewable energy in Germany gives 30%, gas - 8%. 10 years ago it was almost the opposite. there is such a law in economics - labor (knowledge) is always more expensive than raw materials (resources). As soon as the resource grows in price, there will be someone who will work (knowledge) how to find another cheap resource or to do without it. Examples of mass - from wax and leather to rubber and copper.

      5. The comment was deleted.
    2. Villon
      Villon 1 February 2016 12: 21
      0
      The graph is indicative: first raise, then quit.
  6. Mera joota
    Mera joota 1 February 2016 07: 57
    +1
    Everything will be corrected when oil becomes more expensive ... But what if not? So here - time, and no?
    Modern bard

    Oleg somehow modestly bypassed the author, he could have been a "bard two thousandth" as he calls himself ...
    1. Santa Fe
      1 February 2016 08: 13
      +8
      Quote: Mera Joota
      Oleg somehow modestly bypassed the author, he could have been a "bard two thousandth" as he calls himself ...

    2. V.ic
      V.ic 1 February 2016 10: 33
      -1
      Quote: Mera Joota
      could be "bard two thousandth" as he calls himself ...

      ... and even with a stretch. Vizbor, S. and T. Nikitins, Kukin, Gorodnitsky, Berkovsky, Shaov ... have a rest.
  7. jPilot
    jPilot 1 February 2016 08: 00
    +4
    Class, you can’t say better:
    "Visitors to the recently held" Gaidar Forum "reminded of the unfortunate Papuans gathered around a withered palm tree. And with a sad look, waiting for the branches to turn green. Instead of going to look for other ways of survival."
    But the trouble is that these "Papuans" hold the entire economy of the country by "eggs" and under no circumstances want to let them go. For if they allow the country to breathe on its own, which means an increase in production, they will lose POWER, which is equivalent to "death" for them, it is beneficial for them that the country live (let's call things by their proper names) speculation, not production.
    The expression Gref said in relation to the population of our country, and THIS called us "downshifters" and so this definition is just more suitable for the participants of this ASSEMBLY, because it is THEY who live for themselves, abandoning foreign (country) goals. And unfortunately, until the Supreme Commander kicks Dima with his liberal caudla from the trough, and apparently this is from the category of utopia, then in many ways we will crumple without movement.
    1. Santa Fe
      1 February 2016 08: 24
      +5
      Quote: jPilot
      Dimochka with his liberal codla

      First you need to figure it out
      Who is liberal?

      The basis of the idea of ​​liberalism is the inviolability of private property. Who has the most property in Russia? Oligarchs, organized crime groups, security officials. They are real "liberals" who are ready to defend their property in every possible way.

      And does anyone seriously believe that people who are able to buy half of Europe and lead a way of life unthinkable for mere mortals will choose the Supreme so that he "fights" with them? yourself is not funny?
      1. jPilot
        jPilot 1 February 2016 17: 57
        0
        Let's not confuse the ideas of LIBERALISM, and the liberals, the above designated "gospada", because in the open space they are called liberals because they are just hiding behind the ideas of liberalism, but in fact they are not such or are covered by ideas in a "perverted" form. It's like the communists of the last years of the existence of the USSR (Misha marked, Yeltsin, etc., etc.) who were supposedly such, but in fact were and are hangers-on hungry for power and feeders and they do not care about the country ...
  8. blizart
    blizart 1 February 2016 08: 02
    +1
    "The fastest results of any activity come when desires coincide with necessity." W. Churchill. The desire to get off the "oil needle" has been around for a long time, and now the need has crept up so imperceptibly. So the thunder struck, it's up to the little men - in expensive jackets.
    1. atalef
      atalef 1 February 2016 08: 14
      +2
      Quote: blizart
      The desire to get off the "oil needle" has been around for a long time, but now the need has crept up so imperceptibly.

      Well, yes, that's why all the talk just went on. about oil in the Arctic. projects in Venezuela and Iraq. the next stream (northern. southern. Turkish) The Power of Siberia, etc.
      Well, just everything is exclusive. to increase the diameter of the needle.
    2. Wheel
      Wheel 1 February 2016 09: 28
      0
      Quote: blizart
      and then the need quietly crept up. So the thunder struck, it’s up to the peasants - in expensive jackets.

      Hmm, but the little men in expensive jackets are not badly fed.
      Why should they strain?
  9. andrei.yandex
    andrei.yandex 1 February 2016 08: 07
    -1
    A flock of "black swans" approaching Russia
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Dimontius
      Dimontius 1 February 2016 19: 07
      0
      Listen to this scumbag, but we don’t need such characters here !!!!
  10. lame
    lame 1 February 2016 13: 14
    0
    The fall in oil prices to the level of $ 30 per barrel as a whole does not pose a threat to the Russian budget.

    Naturally, for this, the ruble collapsed and prices were raised.
  11. alicante11
    alicante11 1 February 2016 14: 12
    0
    I wonder how it is calculated that the dollar 60 of the year is equal to 10 modern?
    Until 2005, this was something like this. In the 60's, a troy ounce of gold cost 35 bakares. About 2005 of the year about 400 bucks. Total approximately 1: 10.
    And now 1200 Baku per troy ounce. What is already 1: 34. Moreover, I have a very strong impression that the price of gold is VERY underestimated. The maximum gold rate was approaching 2k bucks per troy ounce. And there is no reason for the fall. That speaks about the artificiality of this situation.
  12. igorv501
    igorv501 1 February 2016 14: 33
    +1
    SWEET SIXTEEN-A person who really sees the situation and (looks at the root). The rest of the guys still do not want to take off (pink glasses). Recover people when no one voluntarily refuses a freebie.
  13. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 1 February 2016 16: 28
    +1
    If we adhere to the chosen course, to build a "developed capitalist" society, then in the conditions of sanctions and such oil prices, in a couple of years we will slide down to the level of third-rate countries. With such manners (Olympics, World Cup-18, etc.), we resemble a fool's son, squandering his parental inheritance. There is only one way out, full mobilization of society and a planned economy.
  14. glavnykarapuz
    glavnykarapuz 1 February 2016 20: 45
    -1
    Kaptsov would write, as usual, about BIG and ARMORED ships ...
    But no ... I started working as an "economist". lol
    It would be better if he wrote about ships, despite all the odiosity, this is better and more interesting for him. wink
    Not an economic article, but a school essay on economics lol
    P.S. I apologize for the emoticons.
    P.P.S. Kaptsov! write about the ships!
  15. aviator1913
    aviator1913 3 February 2016 16: 01
    0
    Are you talking about oil as if it was only one product that sank on the exchange? Look around, all resources have fallen, gas in 2 times, metals, wheat, fertilizers. In the world of stagnation. Our budget 40% oil was said above, well, the rest is metal, gas, wheat and fertilizers - those are the goods that have sagged significantly over the years. And this is a big problem, because our industry is just sharpened for servicing these resource productions. Therefore, the entire economy, all industry, all mechanical engineering will sink. There is no investment in these corporations, construction will be delayed, etc.


    A lot of things are falling here, but everyone sees oil, looks at it in the structure of GDP and calms down, they say there is not much oil in the GDP, but at the same time they forget about other resources and related industries that are also falling sharply.